Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, March 08, 2013
Gold Contrary Futures / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s technical breakdown suffered in its recent capitulation selloff naturally unleashed a flood of bearish sentiment. Traders are totally convinced gold’s woes are just starting, that the worst is yet to come. This pessimistic worldview is largely universal, even among futures traders. But their collective bets are actually a strong contrarian indicator. Their bearishness peaks right before major rallies erupt.
Futures speculators are generally considered the most sophisticated of traders. With futures’ inherent high leverage, margin requirements, limited lifespans, and zero-sum nature, they are far more risky and challenging to trade than stocks. Thus the average futures trader is much better informed and better capitalized than the average stock trader. Unforgiving futures trading soon weeds out mediocre traders.
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Friday, March 08, 2013
Gold and Silver Stocks Extreme Situation and its Consequences / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Investors' sentiment in the whole precious metals sector is so low that it seems it almost cannot move any further below its current level and it has profound implications for the market: levels so low signal the formation of a bottom and a likely trend reversal. We would like to quote one of the questions that we received recently as it is a good indication of how negative investors' attitude towards the yellow metal (which could be used as a proxy for the whole sector due to strong correlations between particular assets) is:
Thank you for your hard work on precious metals. I am afraid that when gold reached $1,900 in 2011 it was too much and too fast and we are making a big mistake thinking that gold will go higher. I expect that Wall Street equities will soar for the remainder of 2013 and gold will do very poorly. There are many good stocks now and one can do very well by investing in these stocks.
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Friday, March 08, 2013
Here's What Poor People Don't Know About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: When gold fell $125 an ounce this past month, did you react like a wealthy man or a poor man?
The difference between the two reactions is huge.
If you picked the right one, chances are good you'll make money as a long-term investor...
Friday, March 08, 2013
Silver Prices When the Traffic Lights are Blue Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The view of the silver market from ten thousand feet away shows what is really going on behind the scenes. The manipulation of the market by deep pocket bullion banks with a hugely concentrated combined naked short position has become increasingly evident.
Furthermore, their market spoofing practices that involve dropping their bids to give the indication of a weak market and then quietly buying back their short positions for a profit are well known.
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Friday, March 08, 2013
Deflation and Silver Price Mechanics / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The worldwide tug of war between the world’s major central banks has created a de facto currency war involving the competitive devaluations of major fiat currencies.The move to debase national and multi-nation currencies like the Euro in virtually every major economy has fueled fear about reducing the standard of living and real wealth of everyone affected.
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Friday, March 08, 2013
Washington Budget Deal Could See Gold Selling / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Ben_Traynor
U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion prices hovered near $1580 an ounce Friday morning, broadly in line with where it started the week, as stocks edged higher and the US Dollar weakened ahead of the publication of the latest US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data.
Gold in Sterling meantime dipped below £1050 an ounce by lunchtime in London, while in Euros it fell towards €1200 an ounce as both currencies gained against the Dollar.
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Friday, March 08, 2013
Gold Fails to Break Support Despite Extreme Negative Sentiment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
We all know that sentiment on Gold is quite bearish. Rather than post numerous charts which you’ve likely already seen, I want to note some of the recent statistics. By recent, I refer to the past two weeks. Market Vane’s bullish consensus for Gold hit its lowest since 2001. SentimenTrader.com’s public opinion, which combines various surveys, touched its lowest level since 2004. GLD has seen outflows for 41 consecutive days. It’s monthly outflow was the largest since inception in 2007. According to BullionVault and COT data, speculative bets against Gold are the highest since 1999. The recent commercial short position was at its lowest since late 2008.
Friday, March 08, 2013
Silver: Making the Case for This Precious Metal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jeff_Clark
Even though the newsletter I write for Casey Research is focused primarily on gold, our metals investments cover all the precious metals, and when warranted, some base-metals plays too. And with the markets in the state they are, I want to say something about silver.
Thursday, March 07, 2013
Silver and Gold: You Have to LIE! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: DeviantInvestor
“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” That statement was made by Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Eurozone. Let’s call this a Juncker Moment.
As per Tyler Durden, “He uttered (the above) after getting caught with a bold faced lie about the stability of the failed European project.”
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Thursday, March 07, 2013
More Banks Bearish on Gold as Price Flatlines in "Spinning Top" Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Adrian_Ash
WHOLESALE PRICES to buy gold held around $1580 per ounce on Thursday morning, trading in a tightening range as Asian and European stock markets crept higher after the Dow stock average recorded another all-time high in New York last night.
The Euro and Sterling both rallied this morning against the Dollar after the ECB and Bank of England both left their key interest rates unchanged.
Thursday, March 07, 2013
Dow vs. Gold vs. XAU, What Gold Bubble? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Vin_Maru
The current bull market for gold has risen steadily for about 9 years, but on a percentage basis we still haven’t seen the exponential rise in a 1 to 2 year period that would clearly mark it as a bubble mania phase. In fact, after making solid gains and rising for 9 years, the gold market has essentially gone sideways over the last eighteen months. The good thing is that in the previous bubbles, after it burst the asset class had given back several hundred percent in the 1-2 years following the peak. Luckily we haven’t seen that in this bull run for gold, not yet anyways, but we could see the cycle bottom later this year. The recent correction has given back about 20% from the peak of just over $1900 to just below $1550.
Can the correction continue and steepen to the downside? Sure, anything is possible, especially in a market that can easily be manipulated. But looking at the charts below, gold never went into a mania exponential rise and has been consolidating sideways for 18 months. This gold bull market run is definitely not like previous bubbles and the further this correction at these prices goes out in time, the more likely we will still see one more mania phase push higher with a several hundred percent rise before we can state that gold is truly in a bubble.
Graph courtesy of Macrotrends.org - This chart tracks the performance of gold since July of 2002 against the three largest bubbles of the last 40 years. Past bubbles have shown strong but steady growth for the first 7-8 years before moving into a hyper-growth phase for the last 18-24 months. Each series is adjusted for inflation and is smoothed with a 3-month moving average.
Dow vs. Gold Over the Last 100 Years and in the Current Bull Market
When we look at the Dow to Gold ratio for the last 100 years we see that the Dow has traded between less than 5 times the price of gold on several different occasions. Most of this time was between 1915 and 1940s, with the exception of the roaring 20s when the stock markets outperformed gold significantly. The only other time we saw gold become over valued compared to the Dow was during the 60s and 70s, this was the last time when gold was in a bull market and it lasted less than 20 years. From the early 1980s to about 2000, the Dow has clearly outperformed gold going from one extreme to another. In fact, at the peak of the Dow to gold ratio in 1999, you could buy the Dow 45 times over gold, but ever since then gold has been outperforming the Dow up until recently. What we haven’t seen during this bull market for gold is a Dow to Gold ratio below 5 which could easily mark gold as way over valued compared to the Dow. In order for gold to be considered in a bubble territory, history has shown us that we need the ratio to be clearly below 5 to 1 on a spike low.
Graph courtesy of Macrotrends.org
Now let’s take a look at the recent chart for Dow to Gold over the last 12 years shown below. Starting in 1999, the Dow was priced 45 times gold and since then has given up a significant portion of that ratio. In 2011, the ratio did go as low as 5.7 to 1 when the gold price peaked at about $1900 and ever since then the Dow has been advancing while gold has still been correcting. Today the Dow to Gold ratio is about 9 to 1 and the Dow just made all time highs at 14,286 while gold is sitting at about $1580.
While the ratio is working in favour of the Dow for the moment, it would clearly need to break above 10 to 1 on a strong advance before we can say that gold is in trouble and that the bull market may be over. The 10 to 1 Dow to Gold ratio can be considered the line in the sand; this is where a period of great consolidation will take place before any judgement can be made. Assuming gold stays at about $1600, the Dow can easily move to all time new highs and towards 16,000, it will probably do so by May. At that time, the Dow will most likely take a pause and possibly start a correction going into the summer.
The only question is what will gold do once we reach the 10 to 1. Does it enter a strong bear market and retreat further compared to the Dow as it goes on to make all time highs from Fed enduced printing? Or does the bull market in gold reassert itself and the Dow starts a correction as we move back towards a 5 to 1 ratio. Looking at the chart above, the Dow to Gold ratio is still in favour of gold but has started to move sideways. Maybe a new trading range of 5 to 1 and 10 to 1 between the Dow and Gold still holds for the remainder of the decade. If that is the case, we are much closer to the Dow being at a top and gold at a bottom if the 10 to 1 ratio holds. At some point in the next decade we could see this ratio dip below 5 to 1 which would mean a strong rise in gold compared to the Dow at it enters bubble territory, but we are clearly not there yet.
One thing the charts above clearly show are that gold has never entered a strong parabolic rise into bubble territory. If that was the case, we would have seen a strong percentage gain of several hundred percent in gold within a very short period of time, of which it would be all given back in the same amount of time. Also, looking at the 100 year Dow to Gold ratio chart, the ratio never went below 5 to one which would mark that gold was way over valued compared to the Dow on a historical basis.
The Gold Miners Have Under Performed Everything
As for the gold miners, the XAU is a much broader index used to measure the performance of 30 mining companies. A chart courtesy of James Turk from Gold Money shows how the miners have done compared to gold since 1988. As we can clearly see, gold has outperformed the Dow and the miners during the current Bull Run we have been in. Following the melt down that started in 08, the miners have seriously underperformed and have gone on to historical lows compared to gold. During the 90s when there was technically no bull market in gold and you could buy the mining companies in the XAU index between 6 to 10 grams of gold. The range between 6 to 8 grams of gold for the XAU held between 2001 and 2008 when the bull market started. Since 2008, the miners have seriously underperformed versus gold and you can now buy the index for less than 3 grams of gold. The miners are extremely cheap compared to gold; in fact they probably have never been this cheap throughout history.
If you enjoyed reading this article and are interested in protecting your wealth with precious metals, you can receive our free blog by visiting TDV Golden Trader.
Cheers,
Vin Maru
Anarcho-Capitalist. Libertarian. Freedom fighter against mankind’s two biggest enemies, the State and the Central Banks. Jeff Berwick is the founder of The Dollar Vigilante, CEO of TDV Media & Services and host of the popular video podcast, Anarchast. Jeff is a prominent speaker at many of the world’s freedom, investment and gold conferences as well as regularly in the media.
© 2013 Copyright Jeff Berwick - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.
Jeff Berwick Archive |
Thursday, March 07, 2013
Are You Prepared for Hyperinflation? / Commodities / HyperInflation
By: The_Gold_Report
As looming inflation, currency wars and a possible run on gold threaten to derail markets, Leonard Melman, author of The Melman Report, is setting his sights on the midtier and near-term producers that he wants to scoop up when the blood is in the streets. In this interview with The Gold Report, Melman explains why gold, silver and the companies bringing them out of the ground could do very well in the second half of 2013.
The Gold Report: You recently told a crowd of investors at Prospectors & Developer Association of Canada (PDAC) that precious metals are the best place to invest in an inflationary period. Why is that?
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Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Gold Eating the Dow for Breakfast / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Adrian_Ash
How to get past money illusion now that it's day-break in America once again...
FORGET about the Apple effect. Not including AAPL in its 30 constituents is just one of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's many quirks.
So too is its ever-changing Dow divisor, a number seemingly picked at random to smooth out the math in the DJIA. But neither of these oddities changes the fact that this oddest of equity averages is hitting new all-time highs right now.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Raging Gold Bull and Disputed Propaganda / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The propaganda has turned openly laughable. On the popular major financial news networks, the recent decline in the so-called Gold price has prompted quite the parade of clowns on the ship of fools to trumpet nonsense. The widely published and posted Gold price is dominated by futures contracts, and thus as corrupted as meaningless. The entire global financial structure is crumbling before our eyes. The gang of central bankers has applied their monetary policy for four and a half years since the implosion of Lehman, Fannie Mae, and AIG. The first is dead, while the second has transformed into a sanctioned subprime lender again, and the latter is a sinkhole. The deceptive messages are shrill, acute, and motivated from desperation.
Wednesday, March 06, 2013
The Mexican standoff: Gold, Banxico and the Bank of England / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jan_Skoyles
Late last month it was reported that Mexico are going to organise an audit of their gold stored at the Bank of England.
Financial journalist Guillermo Barba, writes that that the Mexican Superior Audit of the Federation (“ASF” in Spanish) has made an official ‘recommendation’ that the Bank of Mexico “should “make a physical inspection with the counterparty that has the gold under its custody, in order to be able to verify and validate its physical wholeness and the compliance with the terms and conditions of dealing with this Asset…” It was verified by the ASF that this has never been done by Banxico.”
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Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Gold Contrarian Bullish Indicator / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: The recent pullback in gold has certainly unnerved long-term investors. It has also seen a dramatic shift in market sentiment. However, recent data shows that this shift in market sentiment has primarily come from shorter-term institutional funds.
When considering gold as an investment, one must consider the timeframe as well as the underlying participants in the market. Market sentiment for every asset class oscillates from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. The goal for the long-term investor is to use this volatility to accumulate during overly pessimistic times and take profits during overly optimistic times.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Peak Oil Is Almost Here and There's No Magic To Counter It / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
This where we stand, and it's a fairly bleak view: Peak oil is almost here, and nothing new (with the possible but unlikely exception of Iraq) is coming online anytime soon and while the clock is ticking - forward movement on developing renewable energy resources has been sadly inadequate. In the meantime, the idea that shale reservoirs will lead the US to energy independence will soon enough be recognized as unrealistic hype. There are no easy solutions, no viable quick fixes, and no magic fluids. Yet the future isn't all doom and gloom - certain energy technologies do show promise. We had a chance to speak with well known energy expert Dave Summers where we cut through the media noise and take a realistic look at what our energy future holds.
Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Surprising New Paradigm in the Gold and Silver Markets! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Rambus_Chartology
How many times have we heard that the precious metals stocks are so oversold and cheap that they can’t go any lower and have to rally. They just can’t go any lower because the low in 2008 was the absolute low that will never be hit again as it was just an extraordinary event. A precious metal stock crash that was a once in a lifetime thing. So based on that low many PM investors bought their precious metals stocks thinking they were buying on the cheap. I’m wondering if they still think the precious metals stocks were a good buy at that 2008 crash low in the ratio charts?
Wednesday, March 06, 2013
U.S. Dollar Top, Gold, Commodities Bottom / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Toby_Connor
While I suspect this is probably the furthest thing from what most investors expect, I think the dollar index is very close to forming another major top, and once it does it should release oil, gold and the rest of the commodity index from their extended corrections. Granted no one believed me when I called the major three year cycle low in the CRB last summer either.
As you can see in the next chart, as soon as the dollar began to rally out of its last intermediate bottom, commodities, including oil and gold, all began to move down into major intermediate degree declines. For gold this has turned out to be one of the most difficult yearly cycle lows of the entire bull market, other than the eight year cycle low in 2008.
Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Gold Price "Tug of War" as Asians Buy Physical and ETF Investors Sell / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Ben_Traynor
U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold hovered around $1575 per ounce Wednesday morning in London, in line with last week's close, as dealers in Asia reported an increase in demand for physical bullion, in contrast with exchange traded funds, which have continued to see selling, in what one analyst calls a "tug of war" between physical buying and ETF selling.
"Short-term, gold should drift lower to the short-term support line at $1569/65 or even to the previous low at $1555," say technical analysts at Societe Generale.
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