Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 20, 2014
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Swapping Trends / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The two trend reversals everyone has been waiting a year for are about to take place, but they have not yet started.
While I do think 2014 is the year we see gold, silver, miners and many other commodities rally, it is important to follow the trend and wait for a reversal to form before getting overly excited and long commodities.
Each time we see the daily charts form some type of bullish pattern gold market traders become instantly bullish. And each time this happens they get another reality check about their trading technique of trying to pick a bottom.
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Monday, January 20, 2014
Inside Story of Gold Price Manipulation - The Naked Gold Shorts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts and David Kranzler: The deregulation of the financial system during the Clinton and George W. Bush regimes had the predictable result: financial concentration and reckless behavior. A handful of banks grew so large that financial authorities declared them “too big to fail.” Removed from market discipline, the banks became wards of the government requiring massive creation of new money by the Federal Reserve in order to support through the policy of Quantitative Easing the prices of financial instruments on the banks’ balance sheets and in order to finance at low interest rates trillion dollar federal budget deficits associated with the long recession caused by the financial crisis.
Monday, January 20, 2014
Gold and Silver - A Reversal of Fortunes for Precious Metals Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
It's always amazing to me how market sentiment can move from one extreme to the other taking the herd with it. Chartology is the study of charting and investor psychology which when you put to two together can give one an edge on where you are at any given point within a bear or bull market.
Back in the first week December of 2012 the sentiment was very bullish for the precious metals sector especially the precious metals stocks. Gold and silver both had rebounded off of the bottom rails of their six point blue rectangles that had been building out since they both topped out in 2011. It's easy to forget how bullish sentiment was back then after a year of falling prices in 2013.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Gold and Silver Major Buy Signal Over the Next 2-3 Weeks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Toby_Connor
It's been my opinion for the last several weeks that gold formed an intermediate degree bottom on December 31. That being said I'm still a bit nervous that the sector could suffer another manipulation event (like the flash crash two weeks ago) so I haven't been willing to enter a firm long position just yet.
However there are definite signs that this bear market is probably over. The large momentum divergences on the weekly charts are one.
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Sunday, January 19, 2014
Silver Price – The Power Of Thought Will Ultimately Previal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
It has become universally recognized that the power of thought can change anything.
Silver remains incredibly undervalued, and that bodes well for all of us silver stackers. The fact that silver and gold have purposefully been suppressed by the moneychangers makes the future for the next price rise to be greater than ever. Any time anything has been artificially manipulated, it makes the ultimate outcome far worse than was planned by those doing everything possible to prevent a rise in prices. Central planning always fails.
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Saturday, January 18, 2014
Gold Disconnect Between Fundamentals And Price - Perception Rules / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
What will it take to turn the gold market around? One would think it would be obvious that fundamentals are not the answer, while so many believe that fundamentals rule. We are reminded of the fundamentalists, especially "value investors" whose financial world was literally turned upside down when the stock market crashed in 2008. While "value" and "fundamentals" were considered the economic bedrock of the stock market, it turns out that everything is really steeped in perception, for they changed dramatically.
Friday, January 17, 2014
Gold Drives Silver Price - Expecting Incredibly Bullish 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
Investors’ interest in silver is starting to rebound after last year’s carnage. As capital prepares to return to this beaten-down asset, many investors are wondering how to game silver price action. Gold is the key. The white metal closely mirrors and amplifies the price action in the yellow one. Gold is not only silver’s primary driver, but its overwhelmingly dominant one. Gold is critical for timing silver buying and selling.
The more years you spend trading precious metals, the more self-evident this truth becomes. Gold drives silver, full stop. After my 14 years of closely watching gold and silver price action in real-time all day every day, I simply take this ironclad relationship for granted. I can scarcely even write about silver without mentioning it in passing. Gold drives silver is a core trading axiom much like buy low sell high.
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Friday, January 17, 2014
Something’s Afoot in Gold and Silver Market… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Almost unnoticed, Open Interest in gold futures has taken off spectacularly, increasing by over 35,000 contracts since the beginning of the month, which is shown in the following chart.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 17, 2014
Gold Bull Market Ahead - Ten Key Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Mark O’Byrne writes: Today’s AM fix was USD 1,241.00, EUR 912.63 and GBP 754.68 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,237.25, EUR 908.61 and GBP 757.19 per ounce.
Gold climbed $1.90 yesterday, closing at $1,240/oz. Silver slipped $0.12 closing at $20.10/oz.
Gold bars (1 oz) premiums are between 4.75% and 5.5% and are trading at $1,309.36. Gold bars (1 kilo) premiums are between 3% and 3.5% and are trading at $41,301.81. Premiums are steady.
Gold is marginally lower today after gaining yesterday on the U.S. inflation data that showed that the cost of living in the U.S. increased by the most in six months. This increased the appeal of gold as an inflation hedge.
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Friday, January 17, 2014
Gold Outlook for 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: James_Turk
Before looking at the year ahead, it is useful to look back at the year just passed. This adage is particularly true now because little has changed. Three major markets - stocks, bonds and gold - will again be driven this year by the same forces that shaped 2013, but the outcome will be different in one key respect. This year the price of gold will rise.
In January 2013, my outlook for the year ahead focused on three specific events. These were a rising yield on the 10-year Treasury note, growth of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and a decline in the gold/silver ratio.
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Friday, January 17, 2014
The End of Gold and Silver Price Market Manipulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Seasoned and long term investors are familiar with the effects of price suppression. Very few traders can manage the complex positioning required to profit from egregious interference. And the consensus is that it will go on forever, because it has. This very consensus is perhaps the most bullish reason that it simply will not. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 17, 2014
Silver Prices When Monetary Demand Trumps Industrial Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
It is crystal clear to anyone willing to go a few steps beyond the headlines that massive intervention and ignorance of risk act as massive governors to progress, real economic growth and natural capital formation. Nevertheless, what is less clear is how these failures will manifest in precious metals - especially the silver market. The catalyst for much higher prices will be of a monetary, rather than an industrial, demand-led series of events.
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Friday, January 17, 2014
Was Mini Flash Crash Bearish for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
Boris Mikanikrezai writes: Let me start by wishing you a very happy new year! I would like to go back on what happened on January 6, 2014.
February 2014 Gold Futures on January 6, 2014
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Friday, January 17, 2014
Brent Crude Oil Price Faces Headwinds in 2014 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
EIA Petroleum Report
In reviewing the EIA weekly petroleum report, the oil imports figure came in at 6.889 (Million Barrels per Day) for the week ending 01/10/14. This number compared to a year ago 8.030 (Million Barrels per Day) puts a nice cap on the downtrend which really started gaining steam in 2010 onward.
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Friday, January 17, 2014
Five Ways to Play the End of the Natural Gas Renaissance: Bill Powers / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: The_Energy_Report
Shale gas is not the foundation of U.S. energy security that conventional wisdom claims, says Bill Powers in this interview with The Energy Report. But as shale gas peters out, the law of supply and demand will drive gas prices up. Powers, an independent analyst and author of "Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth," sees a good future for gas-leveraged junior companies, and shares his top ideas as demand and price skyrocket in tandem.
The Energy Report: Bill, you published a book six months ago, "Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth," questioning the conventional wisdom of shale gas. Have events supported your thesis?
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Thursday, January 16, 2014
Gold as a Deflation Hedge / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_J_Kosares
(The following is the first of a five part series on how gold performs during periods of deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation and hyperinflation. The first installment examines gold’s safe-haven role during a deflationary event like the global 1930s economic depression.)
“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history. . .But we act as though we are able to predict historical events, or, even worse, as if we are able to change the course of history. We produce thirty-year projections of social security deficits and oil prices without realizing that we cannot even predict these for next summer — our cumulative prediction errors for political and economic events are so monstrous that every time I look at the empirical record I have to pinch myself to verify that I am not dreaming. What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.”
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Thursday, January 16, 2014
Investors Having No Exposure to Energy Risk is Risky / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Marin_Katusa
Because Marin Katusa is the foremost expert on all things energy, I’ve been eager to pick his brain for our subscribers. Marin, an accomplished investment analyst, is the senior editor of Casey Energy Dividends, Casey Energy Confidential, and the Casey Energy Report. He is also a regular commentator on BNN and other major media outlets.
Dennis Miller: Marin, welcome. Thank you for taking the time to share your knowledge with our subscribers.
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Thursday, January 16, 2014
Junior Gold Mining Stocks Have Bottomed / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
There is no need to beat around the bush. Junior mining stocks have bottomed. The bear market is over. Sure we could be wrong. We’ve been wrong before and will be again. However, the evidence is too compelling and is growing by the day.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Options Market Forecasting Future Gold Price Action Direction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
Boris Mikanikrezai writes: I discuss how the gold options market is pricing calls and put to gauge traders’ sentiment and figure out whether gold option traders are biased for downside or upside price action.
Let's use risk reversals to assess the future evolution of precious metals. The risk reversal in options market can be defined as the implied volatility on call options minus the implied volatility on put options, both with the same delta and maturity.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Natural Gas Price Looking Bullish / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Gregor_Horvat
It's been a while since I looked at Natural gas. But, I see some nice price action now, so I decided to share it. There was a nice three wave decline from the high followed by an impulsive rally above the upper trendline of a corrective channel. That's a bullish pattern that is pointing back to 4.58. Any short-term retracement back to 4.210/250 should be corrective and temporary.