Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

What is the Best Trade on the Gold Mining Sector? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Sam_Kirtley

Gold prices soared last week when Fed market pricing went to extremes, with bond prices indicating that there was next to no chance of a rate hike in the next twelve months. We have covered the cause of this irregular pricing, which was the stopping out of 2016 consensus macro trades, in a previous article, so we will not repeat ourselves here. For the purpose of this analysis it suffices to say that gold prices were heavily overbought when they challenged $1250 and that the currently high levels are unsustainable.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Gold Price Shows Some Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jesse

Gold and silver were hit early in the overnight, and there was some obvious quote stuffing and other gimmicks in the gold futures to take the price lower. Don't take my word for it, it was Nanex that printed this and showed the data.

And gold once again would not be denied, and held the 1200 level and then some.

Let's see how we keep going in this potential chart formation.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Gold and Silver - Goldman Says Have No Fear and Buy Our Paper / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jesse

Goldman analyst Jeffrey Currie came out this morning with a 'sell gold' recommendation for Ma and Pa Muppet.

I was fortunate enough to hear his explanation for this in his own words on Bloomberg TV, which had touted his gold call about every fifteen minutes all day.

The net summary of Mr. Currie's forecast is that Goldman's economists think that there ought to be no fear in the financial paper markets, since there is an historically low chance of a recession, less than fifteen percent, and he sees no real possibility of negative interest rates.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Gold Price Stabilises Above $1,200; Asia Markets Run Out Of Steam / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Global economic turmoil continues to rumble on as major economies seek to come to grips with a changing monetary environment, sagging growth, low inflation, pockets of deflation and uncertainty over the future of Europe post Brexit. Japanese shares sold off after their gains on Monday, falling 1.8% in today’s trading sessions. European shares rising 1.6% this morning on the back of an expectation that volatility in the markets may begin to stabilise, feels more like a dead cat bounce to be honest.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Gold Knocked for a Loop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

This looks to me more like an overreaction to the down side in gold based off a sort of mini-panic out of the safe haven trades.

From a fundamental standpoint, nothing has changed in regards to the concerns about negative interest rates nor the chaotic nature of the forex markets. While today’s move in gold certainly was certainly unsettling, it should be kept in mind that this market has rallied nearly straight up since January 14 putting on almost $190 in a month. That is one impressive rally!

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Did the Dow Just Prove Goldbugs Right? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

When celebrity investor Mark Cuban announces to the world that he is investing in gold, is that a sign that the ride up is just getting going, or that it has already peaked? The Gold Report reached out to long-time experts in the sector for a better understanding of what is moving the markets—negative interest rates, a topping dollar, Fed testimony, increased gold buying in China—and what that means for junior mining stocks in the coming months.

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Gold Price Breaking Out or Just Another Letdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Sol_Palha

From top to bottom of the ladder, greed is aroused without knowing where to find ultimate foothold. Nothing can calm it, since its goal is far beyond all it can attain. Reality seems valueless by comparison with the dreams of fevered imaginations; reality is therefore abandoned.
Emile Durkheim

Monday, February 15, 2016

Silver, Gold, the Argentina Peso, and Exponentially Increasing Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

The exchange rate between the Argentina Peso and the US dollar in January 1945 was 4.17 pesos to one dollar.  Like the United States, Argentina created substantial price inflation – devaluation of their currency – in the 1950s – 1990s.

According to Wikipedia Argentina devalued their currency by a factor of 100 in 1970, by another 10,000 in 1983, by another 1,000 in 1985, and by another 10,000 in 1992.

Monday, February 15, 2016

The Retracement In the Price of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jesse

Here is a closer look at the retracement of gold we have seen as of this morning.

While the US markets are closed for Presidents' Day, the rest of the world is open for business.

As you can see from the second chart from Friday, gold had become quite overbought short term.

Monday, February 15, 2016

Consensus Macro Trades Stop Out: Gold Has Made A Near Term Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Sam_Kirtley

Macro consensus trades into 2016 have not worked well, at all. This week saw a large flush out in positioning across financial markets. There are three consensus trades that we feel have been particularly squeezed and what we believe was a final clearout of these position sent other assets, such as gold, to extreme levels that present a number of trading opportunities.

Monday, February 15, 2016

Gold And Silver – Will Precious Metals Purchasers Become Terrorists? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

A clarification:  We tend to use the regular Friday closes for our charts to avoid the closing “fix” that can sometimes be several dollars for gold and several cents for silver away from the end of Friday trade.  It is not of much consequence because we are consistent in doing it that way, but two weeks ago, the was a substantial rally after the normal close, and it was not taken into consideration during our analysis.

More people are becoming aware that not all is as it seems with the federal government, but there is still a reluctance, even a refusal, to attribute many of today’s existing problems as a root cause by the federal government, which is not a government of, by, or for the people.  Today’s de facto federal government has been a product of the globalists for over a century, starting in more earnest when the Rothschild’s financed both sides in the Civil War, and when Lincoln introduced the Executive Order, now routinely used by presidents to by-pass Congress in the Bread and Circus facade known as the federal government where the globalists are in  charge behind the “curtain.”

Monday, February 15, 2016

Soybeans Commodity Trading Weekly Setup / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Submissions

Sasafuturestrading writes: Remember that there is one open position in the COPPER market.

SOYBEANS WEEKLY SETUP:

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Is this the start of a run in Precious Metals? We think not / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Donald_W_Dony

On the backs of a short-term weakness in the U.S. dollar, precious metals have made a sizable advance in the last few weeks.

Gold prices have jumped 17% and silver has increased over 12%.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

What is Gold Telling Us? MAP WAVE ANALYSIS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Marc_Horn

Cycle analysis is something that is not well understood and reinforces that markets are not propelled by any form of intrinsic value of anything, including gold and money! They are propelled by expectations of the future and nothing else!

So starting with that we will look at what the analysis says, and then we can look at how that fits in with human behaviour, because that is what drives prices which reflect nothing more than investors future expectations!

Sunday, February 14, 2016

GOLD In Two Words - BULL MARKET / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Denali_Guide

BULL MARKET = 2 Words
     We know it bottomed in Jul 2013.  Really !!!
Lets go back to October of 2015 when this appeared on this blog.

GOLD NOW IS U$D 1336 - FIGURED IN COIN SHOPS FRIDAYS CLOSE WAS 1310 U$D, SO IT CORRELATES TO THE REAL WORLD, SINCE THE COIN SHOP PRICE IS F.O.B. COIN SHOP

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Seasonal Gold Price Correction on the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Submissions

Goldvybe writes: Not much has changed since our gold correction commentary post on the 10th (here) except that gold had spiked up to $1263 on Thursday after global equities weakness and continued fears about European banks.

The fib retracements have stayed pretty much the same except now moving up a bit. For the most part, our analysis has not changed as we still anticipate a move lower from the seasonal February high into a seasonal low (March-April) of between $1130-$1150.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Gold’s Macrocosm: The Planets Align / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

We introduced the graphical view of the preferred counter-cyclical environment for gold and especially the gold stock sector in July:  Macrocosm.  We have updated the view several times since at NFTRH.com, with the macro backdrop getting more and more supportive of the gold sector over the last half a year.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Gold New Bull Market on Track / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we focused on the gold stocks. There was more initial evidence of a new bull market there than in Gold. However, Thursday Gold erased some doubts as it rocketed above $1200/oz and to as high as $1264/oz before settling a bit lower. That move puts Gold's recovery on par with those following past major lows and offers greater confirmation that a new bull market is underway.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

HUI Gold Stocks …Meet Me at The Bottomz Inn ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

This is the Question on Everyone’s mind .

Earlier this week we looked at the expanding triangle as a possible reversal pattern as it was testing the top rail with a beakout gap. The next two days saw the HUI decline back down to the top of the double bottom hump at 139 where it found support. Yesterdays price action took out the top rail of the expanding triangle again. Today the HUI backtested the top rail around the 155 area and is bouncing. There is no doubt the PM complex is overbought but we now have two possible reversal patterns in play. The double bottom which was the first pattern that showed itself and now the expanding triangle which has an odd number of reversal points, five, which makes it a reversal pattern instead of a consolidation pattern.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Gold Stocks Upside Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again, multiplying wealth for smart contrarian traders who bought them low in recent months.  But after such a blistering surge, traders are naturally wondering how much farther gold stocks can run.  Is it time to realize gains, or buy aggressively for greater gains to come?  This critical question can be answered by looking at fundamentally-derived gold-stock price targets.

Many analysts shy away from offering price targets, with good reason.  Divining precise future outcomes in volatile markets is all but impossible.  Prevailing stock prices result from the chaotic interplay between sentimental, technical, and fundamental drivers.  And an effectively-infinite array of variables can affect each one, making forecasting stock prices a fool’s errand.  Nevertheless, this exercise is absolutely necessary.