Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Gold's Rise: Head Fake or is it the Real Deal? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Bob_Kirtley

The downtrend that has dominated this sector for the last 3 years has been broken by golds sudden and almost vertical rise from its recent lows.

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Why Oil Booms And Busts Happen / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

What if I told you that there was a period in history where oil demand declined by 5 million barrels per day and non-OPEC supply increased by 5 million barrels per day, yet oil price rallied more than 50 percent? Would you believe me? If your answer is yes, then you guessed right. This was the period from 1979 to 1985; it was a period during which global oil demand declined from over 61 million barrels to 56 million barrels and non-OPEC supply increased from 32 million barrels to 37 million barrels. Yet prices rallied from $17 a barrel in 1979 to $26 a barrel in 1985, while reaching as high as $35 in 1981.

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Graphite: What iPhones, NASCAR and Tesla Have in Common / Commodities / Graphene

By: The_Gold_Report

Focus Graphite CEO and Director Gary Economo says the tipping point is coming for natural flake mining developers—even during a depressed commodities cycle. This optimistic view is based on the urgent necessity of manufacturers today to source those critical materials and technologies needed to meet globally mandated CleanTech targets in advance of a 2020 deadline. Focus, says Economo, is on strategic trajectory to capitalize on global change with his company's Lac Knife, Quebec, high-purity graphite deposit.

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Gold Charts That Will Confuse Bulls And Bears / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: InvestingHaven

In this article, we feature 4 gold related charts. Two of them are bullish and two are bearish.

The first bullish chart is the gold price with its trend channel since it peaked in 2011. So far, the breakout out of the trend channel is strongly bullish. What gold bulls would like to see now is a successful test of 1200 USD (resistance line). With gold trading only 20 USD above that price point, it will not take long to see the results of that test.

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Deutsche Bank Abandons Gold Sub $1000 Call, Says Expensive Insurance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

Deutsche Bank Says has thrown in the towel on its call that gold would fall below $1000 Call. Now DB says buy gold for insurance. Here are a few snips of a Deutsche Bank market research report on gold that came my way via email. The title of the report is "It's Expensive, but You Need Some Insurance".

Monday, February 29, 2016

Gold in Zero-bound / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“When you have zero money for so long, the marginal benefits you get through consumption greatly diminish – but there’s one thing that doesn’t diminish, which is unintended consequences.” – Stanley Druckenmiller

Something happened on the way to negative interest rates. Something unexpected. Gold and silver demand went through the roof. The first two months of business at USAGOLD were reminiscent of the 2009 run to gold. In London, where people have the additional concern of a potential exit from the European Union, investors were lining up around the block to purchase precious metals, and reports were circulating that “Some London banks are placing unusually large orders for physical gold.” For the first two months of the year, the U.S. Mint reported gold coin sales running double what they were for the same period in 2015.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Crowded Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Bob_Loukas

Even though Gold did not continue higher this week, sentiment still seems to be dangerously elevated. Talk of $2,000 Gold and a new bull market has become common, and Gold seems ripe for a fall, at least in the short term. Don’t misinterpret my point – I see the evidence that a new bull market trend is developing, but that’s in the intermediate term. Shorter term, the current rally is approaching its limits.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Gold's Message / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist, emailed a chart of gold last week with his comments on what the chart means. I meant to comment on his comments at the time, but will do so now.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Silver Prices in Five Years? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

What will the price of silver be in 2021?  You can find articles suggesting the price of silver will be over $1,000 and under $10.  Perhaps this is the wrong question.

A better approach:  The global financial system is increasingly unstable and fragile, more so than in 2008.  The important question is: How will governments, central banks and financial systems respond to the ongoing crisis?  Future prices for silver are dependent upon the answer to that question.  I suggest three possible scenarios.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Silver Price Breaks Lower - Gold and PM Stocks Set to Plunge... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Clive_Maund

In the latest Gold and Silver Market updates, posted last weekend, the view was expressed that an intermediate top was forming gold and silver, not a bull Flag as some were suggesting, and the latest COT data not only confirms this view, but suggests that a severe drop is imminent, and it already started in silver on Friday. Fortunately we exited most of our long positions in the sector, many at a handsome profit, over the past 2 weeks, having spotted the danger.

The latest 1-year chart for gold is - or should be - alarming for those still long the sector. It shows gold churning having hit a target after a parabolic slingshot move that resulted in it becoming heavily overbought. Now it is vulnerable to a reaction which the latest COTs suggest will be heavy. Breakdown from the parabola will likely lead to a dramatic plunge.

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Gold Price Generates Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Gold has just generated a long term buy signal. This is exact;y what should happen if the 8 year cycle low is complete. I've been saying the 8 year cycle low has to occur along with a yearly cycle low, and we got a yearly cycle low in December.

Sunday, February 28, 2016

US Dollar Rebound Increases Near-Term Gold and Stocks Risk / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we noted that the odds favored more upside in precious metals before a larger correction would begin. While that view remains on track, we want to note the renewed strength in the US Dollar which could provide immediate resistance to higher levels in Gold and gold stocks.

The chart below plots the weekly candles for the US$ index and the net speculative position in the US$ index. The US$ index closed back above its 200-day moving average (97) and remains well above its 400-day (or 80-week moving average).

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Gold And Silver – February Heralding End Of Down Trend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

Applying market logic:

We often state that the market is replete with logic, even for those who do not know how or do not like to look at charts to explain the markets. Charts that explain developing market activity have been superior to all fundamental analysis over the last several years. For us, that statement would include for as long as charts have been maintained, starting with Japan’s rice market, a few hundred years ago.

Most market participants have some [unrequited] need to have fundamentals be the driving force behind their market comprehension. [See the stock market top from 2008 and the ongoing follow-up by fundamentalists who were unable to comprehend how their world of value investing had just been turned upside down. As an aside, charts were flashing a major sell signal after the top but well before the collapse]. We digress…not really. The point is valid.

Friday, February 26, 2016

OceanaGold’s Epic Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

With the gold-mining sector’s market-dominating outperformance this year, investors are searching for the best-of-breed gold miners.  The elite mid-tier OceanaGold is certainly among them.  OceanaGold has truly epic fundamentals, combining super-profitable low-cost gold production with a solid balance sheet and great growth potential.  Gold-stock investors really need to seriously consider this gem for their portfolios.

OceanaGold likely derives its name from Oceania, a loose geographic region comprising the islands of the southwest Pacific Ocean.  And given OceanaGold’s operations in New Zealand and the Philippines, its name is quite apt.  OceanaGold operates several gold mines, and recently acquired a great new gold project in South Carolina.  While not widely known yet by American investors, OceanaGold eventually will be.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Look What’s Happening to Gold Priced in OTHER Currencies [Wow…] / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

At the close of market on the Wednesday this essay was written, the price of one troy ounce of gold was US$1,229. A troy ounce of silver was trading at US$15.25.

Around the world, the price of gold and silver is most commonly quoted in U.S. dollars. As Americans, we tend to think this is the pricing "gold standard." But it's easy to forget that foreign investors generally pay for a purchase in their country's dominant currency.

Friday, February 26, 2016

“Buy Gold” As “Insurance Is Warranted” – Deutsche Bank / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Buy gold as “insurance is warranted” Deutsche Bank have advised in a note issued today.

The embattled German bank has said that rising economic risks and market turmoil mean investors should buy gold for insurance.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Gold’s Full House / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

Using the Macrocosm theme again (I can’t get enough of this gimmick) let’s update some key gold ratios in poker terms.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Gold Will Overwhelm Dent / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Harry Dent is a good demographer and stands for what he believes.  But this is not about Harry Dent.

Charles Sizemore is a writer and editor who works for Harry Dent, but this is not about Charles Sizemore.

This is about gold!

Over a century ago JP Morgan understood that gold was money and the rest was credit.  But he lived when you could buy groceries with a gold eagle and a cup of coffee cost a few cents.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Why Central Banks Will Buy Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

Money is a store of value (or wealth), a medium of exchange as well as a unit of account. In order for money to be effective in the above it has to have the following properties:

• divisible - should be divisible in smaller units
• portable - able to carry it around therefore a high value should be able to be contained in a small space and weight
• homogenous - one unit should be the same as any another unit
• durable - should not be able to be easily destroyed or eroded
• valuable - should have intrinsic value, normally because it is desirable. Should not be able to be created or discovered without reasonable effort (normally a commodity itself).

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, British Edition / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: John_Rubino

It appears that Great Britain might actually do the until-recently-unthinkable, and leave the European Union. The reasons for this dramatic break-up are many, and can be Googled easily enough. For our purposes, suffice to say that traders are scrambling to figure out what this means for the British pound, and they’re not liking the answers. Here’s a quick look at the recent foreign exchange action: