Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, October 19, 2016
How Will the Election Outcome Impact Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By Clint Siegner writes: Metals investors wonder what this presidential election will mean for gold and silver markets. Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and the years of price inflation that followed, presidents have largely ignored gold, the Federal Reserve, and other issues related to sound money. Today, the devaluation of the Federal Reserve Note – the explosion of debt and the eternal deficits which enrich bankers and the political class at the expense of the rest of us – is getting harder to ignore.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Tesla, Apple and Uber Push Lithium Prices Even Higher / Commodities / Lithium
After more than tripling in price this year, Lithium is no longer that dull commodity we take for granted in our consumer electronics: It’s the commodity powering the next, undeniable energy revolution. The tight supply picture emerging as electric cars, mega-batteries and massive energy storage solutions become the cornerstones of our lives could be on the edge of turning new lithium explorers into the next barons.
Lithium now appears to be at a crucial moment in time: The moment when profits in the industry begin to elevate market valuations, and when consolidation starts to boost gains for all those junior explorers who have been scooping up land in the world’s lithium sweet spots.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Silver Price Discovery – It’s Still a Fixing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Absurdities continue in the world of derivative or electronic or paper silver. In what will someday be viewed as the monumental public relations miracle that it is, the silver fix has been transplanted into just another body riddled with cancer.
Below I’ve collected and commented on one of the most prevalent stories characterizing the announcement.
The essence of this is moderately transparent. The banks need to avoid more public relations disasters. They are certainly in for enough as it is.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Silver, Debt, and Deficits – From an Election Year Perspective / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
It is an election year. We should anticipate 8 years of upcoming trauma, following nearly 8 years of “hope and change,” after 8 years of “no nation building,” after 8 years of “I did not have sexual relations with that woman.”
Examine the official US national debt in 8 fiscal year increments (10/1/84 – 9/30/92 etc.) using linear and log scales.
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Monday, October 17, 2016
This Past Week in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in gold and silver markets, noting COT data is showing signs of a bottom.
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Monday, October 17, 2016
December Might Be the Next Buying Opportunity in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By Jake Weber, Garret/Galland Research
There’s no doubt gold has had a good run in 2016. Its recent selloff has caused it to give up most of its post-Brexit gain. Still, the yellow metal is up nearly 20% on the year. And a new buying opportunity may be on the horizon.
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Monday, October 17, 2016
Gold Prices Set For Further Losses Amid Rising Rate Hike Likelihood / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
After briefly crossing back below the critical $1250 per troy ounce level again on Friday, gold are once again poised to experience an extended period of losses on the back of rate hike speculation. Even though Wall Street was not pleased by the latest jobs figures reported earlier in the month, expectations are for inflation to continue trending higher, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December. While there are still significant developments that could derail the possibility between now and November, namely another slowdown in US fundamentals, the external risk factors that emerged over the summer have since tapered. The US dollar continues to reflect this sentiment, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy and improving opportunities in fixed income investments, reducing the value of holding gold as a hedge.
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Sunday, October 16, 2016
More Good News For Gold Bugs: The Bottom Is Getting Closer / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
In the latest gold and silver commitment of traders (COT) report (click here for an explanation of what this report involves), paper players made big strides in bringing the market back into balance — and setting the stage for an eventual rebound.
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Saturday, October 15, 2016
The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
I have not gone off the deep end and joined the “community” of boosters, promoters, pompom waving cheering squads and general cult figures who you can just tell not only want you to adore gold, but in some cases need you to act on your adoration and buy gold or gold stocks. Read into that what you will, but the history of investors burned by the pitch, which tugs at peoples’ morals, sense of right and wrong and plain old common sense, is a long and storied one.
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Saturday, October 15, 2016
Gold is Oversold on Misplaced Expectations of a 2016 Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold investors know that the metal has been under pressure due to expectations of a FED rate hike in 2016. Many believe that an increase in the FED funds rate would support the dollar and send prices for precious metals lower. This has been a key driver of the decline in the gold price to support at $1,250, the 200-day moving average.
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Saturday, October 15, 2016
Gold Stocks Corrections in Bull Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
The gold stocks are clearly in correction mode. The large caps (HUI, GDX) have corrected 30% while the juniors (GDXJ) have held up well in comparison by correcting the same amount. Given a number of factors (the size of the previous advance, the recent technical damage, stronger US$ index and rising yields) the gold stocks should continue to correct and consolidate in a larger sense. To gauge a potential path forward we present a new analog chart and compare the current correction to those from past markets.
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Friday, October 14, 2016
Gold Stocks Screaming Buy / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
The gold miners’ stocks are suffering from universal and overwhelming bearishness today, with nearly everyone expecting further selling. That’s the natural reaction following this sector’s recent massive correction, which climaxed in one of its biggest daily plummets ever witnessed. But within bull markets, there’s no better time to buy aggressively than deep in a major selloff that’s riddled with great doubt and fear.
The core mission of speculation and investment is so simple even children can easily grasp it, buy low sell high. The great challenges arise not from understanding, but execution. Actually buying low then selling high in real markets is exceedingly unnatural and uncomfortable. It requires traders to overcome their own greed and fear to do the exact opposite of everything their own instincts are screaming to do.
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Friday, October 14, 2016
“Gold Is A Great Hedge Against Politicians” – Goldman Sachs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold has risen another 1.7% in British pound terms this week and is 1.8% higher in euro terms and is again acting as a hedge against currency devaluations, Brexit, eurozone and heightened political and geo-political risk in the UK, EU, U.S. and most of the world.
Gold is marginally higher in dollar terms this week after surging on the open in Asia on Sunday night. Gold quickly rose 1% from $1,251/oz to $1,264/oz as China and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) began trading again after being closed for the Chinese Golden Week.
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Friday, October 14, 2016
How Could Helicopter Money Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Since the NIRP has not yielded the expected results – it could have actually weakened the condition of the banking sector and its ability to expand lending – a hot debate about the use of another weapon in the central banks’ heroic struggle with the deflationary pressure started. We mean of course helicopter money, also called monetary finance or money-financed fiscal programs. Supporters argue that it is a necessary option to revive economic growth and generate inflation, while opponents consider it a fancy name for printing money and monetizing fiscal deficits. Who is right and what does it imply for the gold market?
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Thursday, October 13, 2016
Tiptoeing Back into the Gold Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger explains why he sees a "bottom in the cards," and outlines a trading plan to capitalize on the turnaround.
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Thursday, October 13, 2016
The Structure and Future of Gold in the Investment and Monetary World / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
This article looks at factors that will affect gold and silver prices as we go forward. We have to say they are considerable and will lead to our conclusion that while the gold price has fallen through support below $1,300 and now stand at $1,250, we see the fundamentals taking the price back higher and much higher over time. Indeed we do see it rising through its all time peak in the next year and beyond. We will also highlight the fact that such a rise will occur in all currencies as they weaken against the gold price.
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Thursday, October 13, 2016
Sell Gold Now – Time To Liquidate Gold ETF, Pooled and Digital Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Sell Gold Now – A Note from GoldCore CEO Stephen Flood
It has never been more important to own gold as part of a diversified portfolio. The form your gold investment takes is just as important as owning it in the first place. ETFs and pooled gold may not be functional in extreme markets and may themselves be subject to systemic risk events.
We are living in extraordinary times and key to any investment plan that can weather the coming global financial storm is access to all important – liquidity.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Gold and Crude Oil - General Stock Market Links / Commodities / Crude Oil
Without a doubt the most important event of the recent month (or even the recent years) was unexpected OPEC’s decision to limit its production to a range of 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day. The agreement reached in Algiers (which is expected to be implemented this year) improved oil investors’ sentiment and pushed the price of crude oil above the barrier of $50. But is it enough to break above the Jun peak? Is it possible that the relationships between crude oil, gold and the general stock market give us more clues about future crude oil’s moves?
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Gold and Silver Metals Show Strength Relative to the USD Index / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold, silver and mining stocks moved higher yesterday, but the size of the rally was not huge and it was another day during which the PM sector didn’t decline. The back and forth movement and decreased volatility appear to be temporary as this kind of performance is something that we’ve seen during both consolidations and bottoms. Which way will the precious metals sector go?
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
For How Long Can OPEC Talk Up Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Not a day passes without OPEC making oil and gas headlines, and today is surely no exception. Seemingly in lockstep with OPEC, the market is once again pacified on the promise that changes to the global oil supply glut are a' comin'.Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal quoted anonymous sources close to the matter who had it on good authority that the Saudi's were willing to cut "up to" 400,000 barrels per day (and that they had planned to do so all along, with or without an OPEC agreement). We can assume this figure is off August or September levels, which are near-record highs for the oil-rich country.
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