Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Where Will Oil Prices Go After Algiers? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia and Iran may yet come to terms on some sort of production arrangement, but the outcome of the negotiations in Algeria this week may not do much to rescue oil prices. Following the media spectacle, the oil markets may have to shift their attention back to the supply and demand fundamentals, which are not reassuring.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Crude Oil Bull Market Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Crude gained $1.45/bbl. last week closing at 44.48 even after a $1.84 loss on Friday. Since the August high, crude looks like a descending triangle (bearish). The upper trendline passes through 46.75 this week. Support is at 43.25. A break of support opens the door for a decline to 38.25. The weekly Coppock Curve did confirm the June high so look for higher highs in the future. However, new lows are expected once wave C has completed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
This Commodity Has Perked Up its Investors' Portfolios / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: EWI
The 90% rally in sugar prices since late 2015 fulfills our long-standing forecast
Imagine that the world's leading commodity markets were cars speeding down a two-lane highway. Who do you think is in the driver's seat controlling which direction prices go?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Charting the Continuing Gold Market Correction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan plots the continuing correction in the gold and silver markets.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Gold’s Moving Averages and Long-Term Outlook / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold moved about $30 last week and many investors view this fact as a bullish sign and indication that much higher gold prices are likely to follow. Is this really the case? Let’s take a look at the gold charts (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Gold and Gold Stocks Corrective Action Continues Despite Dovish Federal Reserve / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
There were some hopes that a non-move by the Fed would end the current correction in precious metals and spark a move to new highs. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve cannot override the supply and demand component of the market. Gold and gold stocks popped higher but less than two days later the sector (and specifically the miners) has given those gains back. That tells us plenty of sellers remain and this sector needs more time and perhaps lower prices before this correction ends.
Friday, September 23, 2016
Gold Unleashed by the Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold surged sharply this week after the Yellen Fed yet again chickened out on raising its benchmark interest rate. Gold-futures speculators’ irrational fear of Fed rate hikes has been a major drag on gold. And rate-hike risks just plummeted in the coming months, since the Fed can’t risk acting heading into this year’s critical US presidential election. So gold’s next major upleg was likely just unleashed by the Fed.
Oddly, Wall Street’s expectations for a rate hike at this week’s latest meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee were surprisingly high. The interest-rate target directly controlled by the FOMC is the federal-funds rate. Commercial banks are required to hold reserves at the Fed. They lend these reserves to other banks overnight in the federal-funds market, at the FOMC’s federal-funds rate.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 23, 2016
Gold around U.S Presidential Elections / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In previous articles, we examined gold's performance in the presidential election cycles. The only relatively reliable conclusion we were able to draw from the long-term analysis is that the post-election year is the worst for the price of gold in the whole cycle. Let's now focus on gold's short-term dynamics around election time.
The two charts below show the dynamics of gold prices thirty trading days before Election Day and thirty days after.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Overcoming The Second Steel Crisis / Commodities / Steel Sector
By: Dan_Steinbock
Today, advanced economies blame China for steel overcapacity. In reality, four decades ago Washington and Brussels opted for bad policies, which China seeks to transcend. In the G20 summit in Hangzhou, some world leaders had harsh words for China’s steel overcapacity. Before the summit, President Barack Obama was urged by US lawmakers, unions and trade associations to blame China’s trade practices for US mill closures and unemployment and to stress the need for “aggressive enforcement of US trade remedy laws.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Gold Rises 1.5%, Silver Surges 3% After Fed Stays Ultra Loose At 0.25% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Gold was up 1.5% and silver surged 3.1% yesterday after Janet Yellen again failed to raise rates from record lows at 0.25%. The Fed maintained ultra loose monetary policies which are again creating stock and bond market bubbles in the U.S. and other countries.
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Silver Price Forecast: Higher Silver Prices For Many Years To Come / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Hubert_Moolman
In a previous article, I highlighted how a Head and Shoulders Bottoming pattern on the silver chart
suggested that the silver rally since the beginning of 2016 is likely to continue.
This pattern has now matured nicely, thanks to the retrace to the breakout area. Below, is a silver chart (all charts from tradingview.com), with that pattern and the retrace to the breakout area highlighted:
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Frack Sand: The Unsung Hero Of The OPEC Oil War / Commodities / Fracking
By: OilPrice_Com
The late-2014, Saudi-initiated oil-price war may have taken the ‘boom’ out of the US shale industry as it seriously threatened OPEC market share, but Saudi victory has been elusive: US shale has proven amazingly resilient. The industry has adapted quickly to the new playing field, and the unsung hero of a new uptick in drilling and investment isn’t just true grit—it’s sand.
The Saudi victory is equally dulled by the fact that it was not a decline in US shale production that rebalanced supply and demand; rather, it was chaos in Libya, militant attacks in Nigeria, massive fires in Canada and the destabilization of OPEC’s own Venezuela.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
What’s Happening With Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Bob_Loukas
Robert Alexander writes: GOLD WEEKLY : Using cycle timing, we should be close to a low for GOLD, but I am expecting an ICL. An ICL is a quick sharp sell off into a low, and then a move higher. It shakes out the bulls. I have pointed out Prior ICL’s on the chart below, and you can see that they come roughly 4-5 months apart lately. We are 4 months from the ICL at the end of May, and I have been calling for a Deep Meaningful Trade-able LOW at the end of September / early October for several weeks.
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Gold Fever / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
Gold Fever – as in "illness". Gold's bear market has been slow to get started. Rather it has played out as a consolidation since last June. But gold is now testing important support and despite bullish seasonality in September, we expect a breakdown in the metal to be forthcoming.
Gold fell $24.30/oz. last week and closed at $1,305.80 on the 89-dma and the December bull trendline. Resistance is at 1,365 (38.2% retracement of the 2011 bear market) and support is near 1,295.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Gold vs. Stocks and Commodities, Pre-FOMC / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
We are well along in the precious metals correction and have downside targets for gold, silver and the miners. In order for that to be a ‘buy’, the sector and macro fundamentals will need to be in order. Some of those are represented by the gold ratio charts vs. various assets and markets. Below are two important ones.
Gold vs. Stock Markets has been correcting the big macro change to the upside since leading the entire global market relief phase (potentially out of the grips of global deflation) earlier in the year. A hold of these moving averages, generally speaking, keeps a key gold sector fundamental in play as the implication is that conventional casino patrons are choosing gold over their traditional go-to assets, stocks. A breakdown from the moving averages and it’s back to Pallookaville for the gold “community”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 19, 2016
Is the Precious Metals Sector Correction Completing Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses how precious metals prices would be impacted by the Fed's interest rate decision this week.
The Precious Metals (PM) sector correction may be completing RIGHT NOW, with sector indices at the 2nd low of a potential Double Bottom. Whether it is or not depends on the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting—if it announces a rate hike, then both the broad market and the PM sector can be expected to break sharply lower. If it doesn't—if it puts it off again till later, or never, then the PM sector should take off higher again. We cannot know in advance whether the Fed will hike or not, but we can be sure that its intentions have already been telegraphed to the 1%, so that they can position themselves to profit in advance.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 19, 2016
Multiweek Correction in Gold and Silver Markets Continues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts gold and silver as the multiweek correction continues.
Monday, September 19, 2016
‘Hard’ Brexit Looms For Ireland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
The risks that a ‘hard’ Brexit will have for Ireland has been outlined by economist Dan O’Brien. Having once worked for the European Commission as the EU mission’s economic and political affairs officer for Malta and having worked on a free trade deal, his opinions are worth noting.
O’Brien outlines the risks on the horizon in the Sunday Independent and the article is well worth a read as it highlights the risks posed by Brexit to the Irish economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 16, 2016
Why Has Gold Stalled? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s young bull market has totally stalled out in the past couple months. This major loss of momentum following gold’s powerful surges in 2016’s first half is really souring sentiment and vexing traders. They are trying to figure out if gold’s recent consolidation drift is the dawn of a new bearish trend or a healthy pause within an ongoing bull. The likely answer comes from understanding what’s causing gold’s high consolidation.
Back in mid-December right after the Fed’s first rate hike in 9.5 years, gold slumped to a miserable new 6.1-year secular low. That was driven by heavy gold-futures selling from speculators, who were utterly convinced higher rates are gold’s mortal nemesis. But with bearishness so extraordinary and investors’ gold allocations so low, a mighty mean reversion higher for gold was very likely in 2016 as I wrote in late December.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 16, 2016
Trump or HIlary? Which Presidents Have Been Best for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In previous articles, we have examined the gold’s performance in different election cycle years. Now, we deepen our analysis and investigate the behavior of the shiny metal in each presidential cycle in more detail. We analyze how gold performed under each President and which governing party (or whether the new President is an incumbent or a newcomer) affects the gold market the most.
The first cycle ran from 1973 to 1976, when Richard Nixon (who in 1971 closed a gold window), and later, after the Watergate scandal, Gerald Ford were in office. As the gold standard was abandoned, while inflation and uncertainty surged, it was a good period for the shiny metal, which rallied 114.27 percent.
Read full article... Read full article...