Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Will North Korea Boost Gold Prices? Part2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The turn of 2012 to 2013 was a time of escalated tensions between North Korean and the U.S, comparable to recent strains. Hence, the analysis of that period should be valuable for gold investors curious whether (and how) the latest crisis on Korean Peninsula would affect the precious metals market. On December 12, 2012, North Korea successfully launched a long-range rocket, testing a banned ballistic missile and raising nuclear stakes. In response, the U.N. Security Council approved the broadening of sanctions. But North Korea ignored them and on February 12, 2013 it undertook an underground nuclear bomb test. As the test triggered another, even harsher sanctions, North Korea threatened the U.S. with a preemptive nuclear strike on March 7. On March 30, North Korea declared a “state of war” against South Korea, and Kim Jong-un said that “rockets were ready to be fired at American bases in the Pacific.” On April 2, the North Korean military declared that the war could break out “today or tomorrow”. Tensions remained elevated until May, but they did not boost gold prices. Actually, in April there was a historic slide, as the next chart shows. Hence, if history is any guide, the fresh unease about North Korea will not provide any sustained support for the gold prices.

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Will Crude Oil Drop under $50 in Coming Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although the price of black gold increased a bit on Friday, the commodity closed the whole week below important resistance lines and invalidated earlier breakouts. What does it mean for crude oil?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s take a closer look at the charts below and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

This Tech Breakthrough Will Save The Electric Car Market / Commodities / Electric Cars

By: OilPrice_Com

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Precious Metals Monthly Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector started September with a bang. Gold, which had already eclipsed $1300/oz, pushed to $1360/oz while Silver broke its downtrend line (from its late 2012 and 2016 peaks). Unfortunately, precious metals would soon reverse course and more. Gold ended September down nearly 3% and below $1300/oz. Silver lost 5% and its breakout. The gold mining indices (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) lost 7% to 8%. The monthly charts argue the major breakout from multi-year bottoming patterns will have to wait until 2018 at the soonest.

Monday, October 02, 2017

Gold – A Simpler & Better Explanation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

The emotional adamancy which dominates most analysis of gold contributes to confusion and misunderstanding. For example, “Backdrop For Gold Today Is As Bullish As It Has Been In A Long Time”; or “Precious Metal Sector Is On Major Buy Signal”. These and other similar claims are often supported by reams of technical analysis – the best that money can buy. 

And this is on top of general misstatements of fact. It would appear that there is virtually no justification for lower gold prices except when caused by manipulation associated with conspiratorial forces.

Monday, October 02, 2017

Silver is on a Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.

Sunday, October 01, 2017

DBA, SOYB, JJG MOO Soft Commodites ETF's Update / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: SurfCity

My last update on Soft’s was back in mid-April here: https://surfcity.co/2017/04/12/soft-commodities/

Are Soft commodities finding a major low here? Could be but it will vary by commodity and could take another few months to a year for some.

Here is update with charts on DBA, SOYB, JJG MOO and I may add Sugar and Coffee later if I find time. The first three charts are DBA which covers a broad mix of various softs. Also charts on SOYB for Soybeans and JJG, an ETF that buys Futures in Soybeans, Corn and Wheat.

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Another Potential Game Changer for Gold Supply: Chinese Oil Imports Convertible to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark : There are clear supply pressures coming to the gold market, so the last thing it needed was a new source of demand. But that’s exactly what it’s about to get, and as you’ll see, it could potentially push supply into a strained predicament. If this new development catches on it could lead to some fireworks in the gold market.

This source of demand comes from China’s announcement that oil exporters to China will accept yuan as payment. This is normally done in dollars (hence known as the petrodollar system). The yuan is not well established internationally yet, so as an incentive, China will offer its exporters the option to convert their yuan into gold. This will essentially result in a new source of gold demand, one not currently present in the market.

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Gold Bull Market Uplegs in Three Stages / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold bull markets offer outstanding opportunities for traders to grow their wealth.  These bulls consist of series of alternating uplegs and corrections.  Naturally the best times to buy low within ongoing bulls are right after corrections when major new uplegs are being born.  Gold uplegs have three distinct stages that are evident in real-time in key datasets.  Understanding how gold uplegs play out leads to superior gains.

Bull markets in gold can be exceedingly profitable for investors and speculators.  The last secular gold bull ran between April 2001 to August 2011.  During that 10.4-year span, gold powered 638.2% higher!  That radically bested the general stock markets’ 1.9% loss per the S&P 500 over that same time frame.  Hardened contrarians willing to buy low as gold bottoms after long bears can ride all of gold’s big bull gains.

Friday, September 29, 2017

Gold Matches S&P 500 Performance In First 3 Quarters; Up 12% 2017 YTD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Editor Mark O’Byrne

– Gold climbs over 12% in YTD, matching S&P500 performance
– Palladium best performing market, surges 36% 2017 YTD
– Gold outperforms Nikkei 225, Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE and ISEQ
– Geo-political concerns including Trump and North Korea supporting gold
– Safe haven demand should push gold higher in Q4
– Owning physical gold not dependent on third party websites and technology remains essential

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Copper, Oil, Commodities Bottom as Emerging Markets Breakout / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to update some of the different commodities and emerging markets we took some positions in back in late July of this year. First, let me say that as investors we like everything to line up in perfect harmony so we can make some sense out of what is actually happening in the markets. It’s just human nature. For example, if the US dollar is doing this then the PM complex or the commodities should be doing that. There is a general rule that there is an inverse correlation between the US dollar and the PM complex or commodities, but it’s not always accurate.

Many times we can get bogged down trying to make everything fit perfectly before we make a trade. This can sometimes lead to missed opportunities as what we were expecting didn’t take place. For the most part this is one of the reasons why I prefer Chartology. When a pattern is building out the bears and bulls are making their side known by the battle they’re having with each other, which eventually creates a consolidation or reversal pattern. All the fundamentals that a stock has is also priced into the chart pattern.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Financial Advice From Jesse Livermore – Importance Of Being Patient and “Sitting” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Editor Mark O’Byrne

– Listen to Jesse Livermore and ignore the noise of short term market movements, central bank waffle and daily headlines  
– Stock and bond markets are overvalued but continue to climb… for now
– What goes up must come down and investors should diversify and rebalance portfolios despite market noise
– Behavioural biases currently drive markets, prompting legendary investors to be confused and opt out
– Lesson is to prepare portfolios for long-term and invest in assets that will act as hedge in next market correction or crash
– Gold performs well over the long-term and delivers to those “sitting” and being patient

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Gold and the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the latest moves by gold and the U.S. dollar. The last Gold Market update, posted at its recent peak on the 11th, called for a significant reaction back by gold, and that is exactly what has since happened. It also called for a rally in the dollar, which hasn't happened—yet, but as we will see in this update, it looks likely to happen soon, and given that gold's COTs have barely eased on the current reaction to date, it therefore seems likely that gold will lose more ground on a dollar rally.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

This Indicator Stayed AHEAD of Silver for 18+ Months: See What It Says NOW - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: EWI

Should investors rely on traditional ways of evaluating the stock market's "proper value"? You might be surprised at what these four charts show.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Backdrop For Gold Today Is As Bullish As It Has Been In A Long Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Gold finished sharply higher on Monday, recouping roughly half of last week’s loss, as declines in the U.S. stock market and growing tensions between the U.S. and North Korea lifted prices for the yellow metal to the highest settlement in more than a week.

December gold rose $14, or 1.1%, to settle at $1,311.50 an ounce. Prices, which lost about 2.1% last week, saw their highest finish since Sept. 15, according to FastSet data as reported by Marketwatch.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

$GOLD – Understanding and Dealing with Chaos / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Spock

Everything in the PM sector hangs of this one $GOLD chart below, as its foundation.

This is a monthly chart, using the 8 and 21 simple moving averages to generate the BUY and SELL signals. 8 and 21 are Fibonacci numbers.

There are only two BUY signals on this chart: 2001 and 2016, 15 years apart. The last SELL signal was in late 2012 for $GOLD. Do not expect the next SELL signal until at least 2026/27, 10 years from now, two thirds of the way into this new 15 year super cycle.

Monday, September 25, 2017

Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– ‘Commodities King’ Gartman sees $1,400 gold surge in months
– “Gold is the one currency that will do the best of all…”
– Pullback below $1300 “is relatively inconsequential”
– Use gold price weakness to be a buyer “no question”
– Bullish on gold due to central banks and easy monetary policy and gold will be even higher in euro terms
– Gold will be the best of all, as a result of QE and expansionary policies
– Dalio reconfirms belief that ‘gold serves a purpose’ and portfolios should have exposure
– ‘Gold is a diversifying asset’ says Dalio
– Own allocated, segregated gold in Zurich or Singapore

Monday, September 25, 2017

22 charts and 52 questions that will make you Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Michal_Matovcik

Since 2007 I am wondering how can the financial world continue in this insane artificial reality for such a long time. It is shocking how without any relevant systemic changes and resolution of issues from 2007 economic crisis the central banks were able to create the smokescreen of sustainability.

They were able to persuade the majority of the public that one does not need to be productive. We just need to print some more money and prop the markets here and there without consequences and so problems will magically go away. And why not to also double down on the most negative trends that got us into the 2007 economic crisis. How insane is that?

Unfortunately, I didn’t register the laws of nature changed so dramatically that suddenly we can live in a new paradigm of “Free lunch for everybody” for the foreseeable future.

Monday, September 25, 2017

Speculation Favors Overall Higher Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Fed Quantitative Tightening Impact on Stocks and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

This week’s landmark Federal Open Market Committee decision to launch quantitative tightening is one of the most-important and most-consequential actions in the Federal Reserve’s entire 104-year history.  QT changes everything for world financial markets levitated by years of quantitative easing.  The advent of the QT era has enormous implications for stock markets and gold that all investors need to understand.

This week’s FOMC decision to birth QT in early October certainly wasn’t a surprise.  To the Fed’s credit, this unprecedented paradigm shift had been well-telegraphed.  Back at its mid-June meeting, the FOMC warned “The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year”.  Its usual FOMC statement was accompanied by an addendum explaining how QT would likely unfold.