Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, December 14, 2017
Alabama Election, FOMC Meeting and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Democrats won a fight for the U.S. Senate seat in Alabama. What does it mean for the gold market?
Yesterday, a special election for the United States Senate took place in Alabama. The vote was organized to fill the vacancy which arose when Jeff Sessions resigned from being a Senator to serve as U.S. Attorney General.
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
New York Fed Inflation Gauge and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The New York Fed created a new inflation gauge. What does it mean for the gold market?
The standard inflation measures are the CPI and the PCEPI. They are useful indicators of changes in consumer prices. However, they omit producer prices, commodity prices, or asset prices. Hence, the central banks’ focus on consumer prices makes them blind to asset prices bubbles and the broad inflation pressure. This was the case of both the Great Depression and the Great Recession: the CPI was stable, so the Fed did not perceived its monetary policy as easy, despite the impressive rise in stock and real estate markets.
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts to Continue? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming
– Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets
– Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions
– Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history
– ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800 contracts
– Seasonally, January is generally a good month to own gold (see table)
– “If history is still reliable, January will be a great month to own precious metals”
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Will Gold and Diamonds Rival Bitcoin in Tokenized Economy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
Whenever I look at the Bitcoin price chart, it makes no sense and that means investors no longer move the market, but rather, the market moves them. If the prices are skyrocketing, instead of sitting back and looking at what’s behind the rally, they are now joining the bandwagon without taking a second to think.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Gold Price 100% Bullish Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
During yesterday’s week, we saw breakdowns and major declines in all parts of the precious metals sector. Even the HUI to gold ratio broke below the key low. Yet, there is something that we saw based on last week’s closing prices that had 100% bullish efficiency in the past few years. What is it and how we can use this knowledge?
Before moving to the details of the above bullish sign, let’s check what changed in gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, December 11, 2017
Is This The Beginning Of The Next Silver Rush? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, December 11, 2017
The Dow Gold Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Rambus_Chartology
This next set of ratio charts I consider to be the most important ratio charts if you are deciding whether to be an investor in the INDU or in Gold.
When the price is rising The INDU ( Dow Jones Industrial Average ) (a proxy for General Stock Markets) is rising against Gold , and when it is falling Gold is rising against the Dow.
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Monday, December 11, 2017
Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: John_Rubino
It took a lot longer than it should have, but gold futures traders have finally started behaving “normally.” The speculators who were extremely, stubbornly long – and who are usually wrong when they’re this excited — had maintained their over-optimistic bets when they should have been stampeding for the exits, making the last few months both boring and depressing for gold bugs and related investors.
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Saturday, December 09, 2017
Is Gold Really Strong? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver and mining stocks declined for yet another day, but this time gold ended the session with a (slight, but still) gain. How can we interpret the latter? Is it a sign of strength?
In short, not at all. In yesterday’s, alert we emphasized that gold’s breakdown was one of the key developments that one should consider while analyzing the precious metals market. The tiny upswing that we saw in gold yesterday was a classic example of a post-breakout pause. Let’s take a closer look (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Friday, December 08, 2017
Merry Christmas to You - Gold Bullion Premiums at Multi-Year Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldSilver
There’s nothing like a bargain during the holidays. And here’s an unexpected one even I was surprised to see…
It’s not easy to dig up industry-wide data on coin and bar premiums. To do it manually is incredibly time-consuming and then would be out of date as soon as you published it, since premiums always fluctuate.
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Friday, December 08, 2017
Gold Stocks Break, Gold to Follow / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
We’ve been persistently bearish on precious metals since September and that has annoyed our readers. The weak price action, negative divergences and bearish fundamentals are too much to currently overcome for the time being. The gold stocks finally cracked this week and have lost another 7%-8% in only the past seven trading sessions. Silver and Gold denominated in foreign currencies have joined the breakdown. Gold meanwhile has not broken down yet but all indications are that it will soon.
Friday, December 08, 2017
Will Technology Spur Gold Demand? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This week, the WGC released a market update entitled “Technology – a brighter outlook?”. What are the main conclusions of the report?
On Tuesday, the World Gold Council published its latest report about the technology sector’s demand for the yellow metal. The main point is that we see a rebound in gold’s use in electronics. As it is commonly known, gold’s physical properties (such as high electrical conductivity) make it an excellent metal for wide use in electronics. But due to high prices and the advancing substitution in the electronics sector, the volume of gold used in technology has decreased in recent years.
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
Precious Metals Breaking Down! 3 Amigos to Abort? 4 Horsemen to Ride? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Gary_Tanashian
I am not trying to be a wise guy with the first half of the title (it’s a goof on alarmist media), but if you were not bear biased or outright bearish on the gold sector’s daily and weekly technicals, and its macro and sector fundamentals by now all you have left are the alarmist headlines now telling us about H&S breakdowns, HUI/Gold ratio bearishness and whatever else is going on out there in media large and small to scare the lowly gold bug.
Thursday, December 07, 2017
The One Oil Market Indicator OPEC Must Watch / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
“We will not let go of our current approach until we reach a balanced market,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday at a news conference in Riyadh.
OPEC ended months of speculation last week when it decided to extend its production cuts through the end of 2018, easing concerns that the limits would be lifted before the oil market was ready. But while it put some uncertainty to rest, the next question is what OPEC does when the oil market becomes “balanced”? What is the exit strategy?
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
Crude Oil, Oil Stocks and Invalidation of Breakouts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Tuesday, crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finally closed another day under the upper border of the short-term rising trend channel. Will this show of oil bulls’ weakness trigger further deterioration in the coming days? Will the relationship between black gold and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?
Wednesday, December 06, 2017
Gold and Bond Yields / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Donald_W_Dony
As the U.S. economy continues to expand, the response by the FOMC is to slowly raise interest rates in attempt to extend the business cycle as long as possible.
This action of ratcheting-up short-term rates is positive for bond yields.
After steadily declining since 2008, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields have found a floor in 2012 and 2016 at 1.50 percent.
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Wednesday, December 06, 2017
More Strange And Disturbing Action In The Paper Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: John_Rubino
For at least the past decade the behavior of the people who trade gold futures contracts – and thereby determine the metal’s price – has been generally predictable: The “commercials” – big banks and companies that buy gold to do things with it – have suckered the speculators – mostly hedge funds who chase trends – into going very long and very short at exactly the wrong time.
Which means the price action in gold six or so months in the future was broadly predictable. When the speculators were way long, it was going down and vice versa.
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Wednesday, December 06, 2017
When Will Quiet Precious Metals Markets Get the Catalyst They Need / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: MoneyMetals
Fear and greed drive the precious metals markets, but there hasn’t been much of either pushing gold and silver prices lately. Investors have grown tired of worrying about geopolitical events, ever increasing federal debt ceilings and ever inflating equity bubbles.
Meanwhile, greedy trend traders continue piling in to hot markets.
With the exception of palladium, metals prices have been stagnant for most of the year. For the time being, gold and silver are looking pretty boring relative to the hefty gains in stock prices and the explosive rise in Bitcoin.
Wednesday, December 06, 2017
Crude Oil and Negative Divergences / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil increased and approached the November peak, but did this increase change anything in the broader perspective? Is it possible that the non-USD chart of crude oil give us more clues about black gold future moves?
Tuesday, December 05, 2017
Are We Ready For A Gold And Silver Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Avi_Gilburt
Many of you who follow my analysis have learned quite well how I look at the market. And, those of you who have read me in the past know that I do not view fundamentals as being relevant to determining when we can see a major turn in the metals market.
In fact, in 2011, the fundamentals for the metals market were exceptionally strong, with most everyone believing in the certainty of gold exceeding the $2,000 mark, just before we began a multi-year pullback.
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