For the past month we’ve witnessed a sideways movement in the WTI. It may have traced out a triangle pattern. The move from the 24th of November top looks complex, which is typical for a C-wave of a triangle. Triangles typically resolve into the direction of the greater trend. Hence we forecast price action to the upside short term.

A triangle thrust will not put the lid on the WTI yet. The entire trend shows 9 waves to the upside from the starting point of the trend in June 2017. There is a wave overlap within the first 3 waves to the upside however. The conclusion to this is that we need to see at least 2 more up swings until we can count the uptrend in WTI oil complete.

Long Term Price Trend

Price action has been exciting over the past couple of decades. WTI increased 15-fold from its levels in the late 90’s and had two magnificent crashes thereafter. We see crude oil to behave further in a complex manner. Mid term our wave analysis projects significant upside from the 2016 lows.

Long term there may be another few decades with crude oil in a trading range between $25 and $150. The sideways pattern makes also fundamental sense in a time when electric cars are waiting for their breakthrough and gas or alternative fuels compete with crude oil as an energy source.

About The Author

Our background lies in economics and trading. We have been trained at reputable universities and worked as proprietary traders as well as portfolio managers throughout the past couple of decades. We started exploring the field of behavioral economics due to self-interest in the late 90’s.

We experienced that the vast majority of publicly available financial market research either lacks quality or conflicts with other interests of the publisher. Our goal is to provide high quality analysis of liquid markets worldwide to the broad public. We’ve therefore launched recently our website.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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