Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Gold Breakdown Below $800 - What is Happening? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Well, gold has broken through the 800 barrier and climbed as high as 845. What gives? Why is gold moving on like this? I can say it a hundred times but never enough times really. This is not about gold. Gold is merely a barometer.
True, the gold barometer has been broken for a long time due to intervention by others. But I believe that barometer is back together again and in working order. As always gold merely reflects the circumstances around it. By the way. It looks like 800 just may become the new floor price for gold and not its ceiling.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Silver in the Process of Breaking Out / Commodities / Gold & Silver
'Thought I'd broken out didn't you' - GOTCHA!! Actually, silver is in the process of breaking out, and a reaction back into pattern was inevitable if gold hit the skids. With the picture for silver now looking at least as bullish longer term the reaction of the past two days is viewed as providing a buying opportunity.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Gold and Silver Correction is Normal and Necessary for the Bull Market to Continue / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Although yesterday's reaction may have seemed severe, it is was actually perfectly normal, and served to bring things off the boil, which is necessary if the larger uptrend in gold and silver is to continue. We were expecting trouble last week on the site when it was made clear that the dollar was deeply oversold and gold was extremely overbought, and it was advised to take profits in most Traded Options (Calls) - and it was further pointed out that impending weakness would provide an excellent opportunity to increase positions in big gold and silver stocks, especially those that had run away and become ridiculously overbought, and big golds especially, such as Newmont, got hammered yesterday.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Gold Hits Two-Day High as Energy Costs Surge; Volatile Gold Prices Keeps Indian Wedding Demand Pent Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver
SPOT GOLD PRICE reached their highest level in two days above $812 per ounce late Wednesday morning in London , regaining $17 from Tuesday's low as energy costs surged and government bonds were sold off.
"Medium term, consolidation above $745 implies a test of the all-time high and thereafter $1,000 in 2008," say analysts at Barclays Capital in London in a report.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Commodities Bull Cycle Will Endure until 2014 to 2022 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
GoldGold was down $8.90 to $797 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was down 18 cents to $14.55 per ounce.
In the Access market in New York it was aggressively sold off and fell to support at $790 whereupon it bounced sharply and rallied in Asia and European trading and is up to $810.50 per ounce at 1230 GMT.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2007
AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS - Thanksgiving to Feed Agricultural Bull Market / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
With the upcoming holidays, the eating season is arriving in a goodly part of world. From now till turn of calendar to 2008, food will be primary focus of many consumers. Next week is Thanksgiving in the U.S. On that day, many in the U.S. will consume as much turkey as they do in the remainder of entire year.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Gold and Silver - Good Times Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver
There have certainly been a few things locally and globally that point to good times ahead for gold and silver.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Shorting Overbought Commodities , Gold, Oil & Gas Using UltraShort ETF / Commodities / Crude Oil
The big picture of the DUG (the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) shows Monday morning's huge upside opening gap and follow-through that amounts to about a 6% climb from Friday's close.
More importantly, though, is the upside assault on the Sept-Nov resistance
plateau at 44.00-44.50, which when hurdled should trigger additional
follow-through to test the Feb-Nov resistance line that cuts across the
price axis in the vicinity of 49.00.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Gold Recovers One-Third of Monday's 5% Plunge as Yen Retreats; Driven Higher by "Bargain-Hunting & Short-Covering" / Commodities / Gold & Silver
SPOT GOLD PRICES bounced 1.6% from their overnight low on Tuesday morning, reversing one-third of Monday's $41 plunge to hold above $800 per ounce.
"There seems to be bargain hunters at below $800," said Ronald Leung of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong earlier. "I think $792 and $793 are the supporting levels.
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Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Gold Tumbiles as Credit Crunch Hits E-trade / Commodities / Gold & Silver
GoldGold was down $26.20 to $805.90 per ounce in New York on Monday and silver was down 75 cents to $14.73 per ounce. A sharp correction was expected after gold's surge in the last two months. Last week alone gold was up some 3% and silver surged by over 6% and profit taking and a correction was inevitable.
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Monday, November 12, 2007
Commodity Indexes Surpass Commodity Hedge Funds / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds
Commodity index investment products are helping mainstream investors ride the bull market in commodities. And as Bloomberg reports, this year the indexes have outperformed the leading commodity focused hedge funds.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Gold Falls Sharply in Europe / Commodities / Gold & Silver
GoldGold was down $3.10 to $832.10 per ounce in New York on Friday and silver was up 1 cent to $15.48 per ounce. Gold was up some 3% last week and silver surged by over 6%.
In Asian and European trading both have sold off and gold is down to $815 per ounce at 1230 GMT. Profit taking, a fall in oil prices and tentative dollar strength are likely the primary reasons behind this much anticipated correction. Gold will likely find good support at the psychological level of $800 per ounce.
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Monday, November 12, 2007
Gold Drops 2.2% as Yen Surges, Asian Stocks Slump, Oil Dips & London Banks Bounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver
SPOT GOLD PRICES fell sharply in early trade on Monday, retreating more than $19 per ounce from Friday's all-time record closing high as global equities continued to drop and the Japanese Yen spiked violently on the currency market.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Gold Technically Strong / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Gold just keeps on trucking but Wednesday may have been a critical day. Read on to find out why.
SIMPLICITY
If you can't make it simple then it ain't worth making. So said a wise old man -- but I know not who. Anyway I try to follow that motto as best as I can in these commentaries. That is also a major reason I am a technician. Technical analysis can be very simple (but too many try to make it difficult). On the other hand, fundamental analysis is just difficult -- just difficult. My hat off to those who can master it and are able to profit from it.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - Judgments Affirmed! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Rising metals prices … tend to erode the credibility of fractional reserve lending and fiat currency. In all likelihood the FOMC would lower rates again if further calamity befell financial markets or the larger economy, but in the near term at least ... a battle being waged between anti-inflationary forces with the Fed in one camp, and broker/banker forces allied with major media attempting to force another cut on the other could talk down commodities. Currency arbitrage that lifts the dollar off its lows for a time might give the precious metals rally a breather. Targets in gold now range up to $845, and $15.80 in silver. In the interest of sustainable gains, perhaps a little retesting might be in order, at least the $800 level, to check for a possible floor there.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
How NOT To Lose Money Investing in Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
Silver has broken out of its correction phase, a new bull leg in silver has resumed and I am addressing the subject of losing money in silver. Have I gone mad or what? No and for two simple reasons which are displayed in graphical form below. The first is the silver spike of 2004 and the other is the silver spike of 2006.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement / Commodities / Gold & Silver
In the week ending 26 th October 2007, the decrease of €126 million in gold and gold receivables reflected sales of gold by two Eurosystem central banks (consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 27th September 2004) of 7.25 tonnes approximately.
What looks to be persistently high gold sales by the signatories of the Central Bank gold Agreement in the first month of the fourth year of the five year agreement, we contemplate what lies ahead for the agreement and the sales from there. It would seem that the Swiss are the larger of the two sellers, with either the French or the European Central bank as the other seller.
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Friday, November 09, 2007
Crude Oil and Gas Energy Complex Peaking? / Commodities / Crude Oil
The big picture of the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DUG) continues to act and look like the establishment of a significant base-like formation that is on the verge of propelling the price structure considerably higher. Initial resistance resides at 41.50/60, followed by the prior rally peak at 42.08 (11/05), which if (when) hurdled should trigger upside acceleration towards 49.00-50.00 for a confrontation with the Mar-Nov down trendline. If my work proves correct, then it implies that the energy complex is peaking and that a significant downside correction is imminent.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
Trading the Gold Stocks Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Gold, which was a scoffed-at pariah not too many years ago, suddenly finds itself on the verge of being almost sexy again. With this metal now challenging its all-time nominal high from January 1980, I am hearing from more ordinary non-market-following folks who are newly interested in gold investing.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
Gold Remains Strong as Subprime Crisis Turns Into Full Blown Credit Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
GoldGold was up $4.20 to $835.20 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was up 18 cents to $15.47 per ounce. Gold has since treaded water and has traded sideways in Asian and European trading and is trading at $832.60 at 1130 GMT. Gold is down marginally in GBP and EUR with the euro and British pound strengthening somewhat. It is trading at £394.60 GBP (down from £395.20 ) and €566.50 EUR (down from €568).
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