Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
End of the Credit Cycle Conundrum for Commodities / Commodities / Money Supply
By: David_Petch
Inflationary cycles are always manifested towards the end with rises in commodity prices that become equivalent to a black hole where money gravitates. Increasing the supply of money is the very definition of inflation, with rising prices being a symptom. Interest rate cycles tend to last 20-30 years starting from a decline to a base, followed by peak. Central banks use interest rates as the brakes of an economy and is the primary tool used under fiat currencies. Central Banks could stop printing money, but that would lead to a deflationary collapse, which is not a desirable outcome…so inflation it is. After interest rates rise to cool things on a Cycle Degree, periods of declining interest rates occur which will often see a decline in prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Proshares UltraShort Oil and Gas Index ETF Climbs Higher / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas, ETF), my hedge postion against a nasty but well overdue correction in the energy names and indices, is beginning to climb... Let's take a look..Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Gold Heading for Support $850 to $860 for Good Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $4 to $903.90 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 6 cents to $16.73 per ounce. Gold traded sideways in Asia but has sold off in late Asian and early trading in Europe and is down to $890. Silver has also fallen and is down to $16.56 per ounce.
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Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Gold Plunges below $900 On US Dollar Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD for immediate delivery sank at the start of London trade for the second day running on Tuesday, losing $14 per ounce to bounce off a two-week low of $888 as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen rose sharply on the currency market and world equities continued to tick lower from Monday's 1% drop on the S&P.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Commodities, Natural Resources and Precious Metals Forecasts 2008 - Part IV / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Ty_Andros
This sector holds the most promise for those who practice simple “Buy and Hold” strategies. The wind is at the back of these markets for the next decade or more as the “Crack up Boom” combines forces with the Austrian economies of the emerging world. Three billion people are emerging into broad new middle classes, on the bid and are sitting on trillions and trillions of IOU's called G7 currencies. Supply constrained, demand lead bull markets are front and center in these sectors. Combine this with the breakdown in the definition of money as a “store of value” and explosive moves are on the horizon.The emerging world has no external debt to speak of and ton's of savings in the bank. They may not be the mindless consumers of the welfare states but their domestic consumption of all commodities, raw materials and metals is growing and will continue to do so at a decent and sustainable pace.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 04, 2008
Precious Metals Investors Sit Tight - The Dow / Gold Ratio Story / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Captain_Hook
Don't say you were not warned. Warned about what? The coming depression in the global economy perhaps? No – that's not what I am referring to; however, this should be a very big concern to all never the less. Could it be an impending derivatives debacle emanating in the States due to an unexpected bond market implosion brought about by investor concern? No – that's not it either; but again, this is an item everybody should be concerned about considering implications for housing, credit markets, and the economy at large in turn. And certainly these are all legitimate and significant concerns worthy of warning.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 04, 2008
Gold is the Ultimate Safehaven as Mega Shift to Hard Assets Continues / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Aden_Forecast
Gold Record Highs Keep Coming!Gold surged above $850 to new record highs as the new year began. This is exciting but gold could become even more exciting now that it's in uncharted territory.
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Monday, February 04, 2008
Gold Healthy Correction After January Gains / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $15.30 (or 1.7%) to $907.90 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday and silver was down 8 cents to $16.79 per ounce. Gold traded flat to slightly up in Asia and has sold off in early trading in Europe and is down 0.77% to $902. Silver has also fallen and is down to $16.70 (-0.7%) per ounce.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 04, 2008
Gold Falls Below $900 as Global Stock Market Bounce Continues / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES sank at the start of London trade on Monday, adding to Friday's sharp losses and dropping $12 per ounce from an overnight rally in Asia to fall below $900 for the first time in seven sessions.As the wave of sell orders pushed physical Gold Bullion as low as $897.20 before a rebound to $903, world stock markets continued Friday's rally, pushing Europe's 300 largest blue-chips some 0.9% higher by lunchtime in Frankfurt.
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Sunday, February 03, 2008
Gold Short-term Weakness, Long-term Bullish / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
A generally okay week BUT with a weak momentum and a collapse on Friday. Let's see if it is of any REAL significance.
GOLD : LONG TERM
The long term P&F chart made a new high X during the week and continues in a bullish trend. There is yet no hint of trouble from the P&F chart but it would not show it for some time. We go to the normal indicators to see if there is any hint of a problem.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Aluminum and Natural Gas - the Next Commodities to Boom? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Elliot_H_Gue
Oil prices are up nearly 50 percent over the past year; crude prices accelerated at the end of 2007 as inventories tightened globally. Meanwhile, wheat prices are up more than 100 percent over the same time period amid strong growth in demand from the developing world, ultra-low stocks in some countries and, of course, a boom in biofuels demand powered by government subsidies.
Although wheat isn't an important feedstock for making ethanol, all agricultural commodities are affected by the biofuels boom. The reason is simply that farmers are diverting acres to corn production in an effort to capture sky-high corn prices.
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Sunday, February 03, 2008
Silver Set for Major Advance towards $30 Within Next Two Months / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
Silver continues to advance this week into the $17 territory and onto a level somewhere we believe in the $20 to $30 range. That difference between $20 and $30 is a lot to investors who are especially leveraged to silver through stocks, options and futures but also to those who hold large quantities of silver be it in ETFs, pool accounts or in other secure deposits.
At this point let me give a brief update on how one of our indicators is getting on. I call it the RMAR or "Relative Moving Average Refined". This technical analysis indicator is a sell signal generator working in the multi year range. Typically a sell signal is flagged every few years depending on whether gold and silver is in a major bear or bull market.
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
Gold: New Month, New Direction? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“Though gold moved to record highs again this week, that doesn't rule out the possibility of a corrective phase having begun earlier this month. A simple three-wave correction could climb as high as $940-950 before being invalidated. Any failure of a pre- or post-Fed rally in this area would suggest a five-wave decline to about $800-830. The Fed… has lost the appetite for disappointing the markets. Though the rate-cut should suggest further upside in metals, this is the context in which readers should… act. Though silver could reach $17.40-17.50 before invalidating a return below $10, support between $12-$15 , especially in the strong band in the $13.75-14.25 area, tends to support further upside.” ~ Precious Points: Can't Keep a Good Metal Down, January 26, 2008
Saturday, February 02, 2008
"Wisdom of Crowds" Helps Explain Gold's Price Climb / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Frank_Holmes
All around the world, investors believe in gold.
If you ask them why, you will get a number of explanations and a level of conviction that has endured despite opinions of many “experts” that gold was overpriced at $500, then at $600, and so on until it reached and passed $900.
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
Gold Investments Weekly Update - Strong Support Suggests Shallow Correction / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was due a much needed breather and a correction after the 10% increase in value in January. Considering the speed of gold's move up in recent weeks it is surprising that gold has only sold off by a small margin today ( by less than 2%). Compared to the sell off in equities in recent weeks gold's sell off has been orderly and less sharp.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 01, 2008
Gold Takes a Hit - Early Phase of a Significant Downtrend / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The gold market is taking a big hit today, despite the weaker economic data that initially triggered a decline in the dollar closer to 1.5000 versus the Euro... Very interesting action, indeed, and not particularly gold-friendly, I might add. Let's take a look at the GDX (Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF)... Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 01, 2008
Invest in Commodities, Don't Lose Your Capital in the Stocks Secular Bear Market / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Zeal_LLC
The financial markets are always exhilarating. And as a student of the markets, I've learned over the years that their dynamics leave no room for boredom. Whether bull, bear, or monotonous grind in either direction, there is always something new and exciting going on.
Astute investors and speculators are able to make money no matter what direction the markets are moving. But for the average investor, it is usually live by the bull and die by the bear. And for those investors positioned to grow their capital in headline stock indices, in flat or down-trending markets there is wailing and gnashing of teeth.
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Friday, February 01, 2008
Gold Monthly Close Above $900 Could Signal Profit Taking Ahead of $1000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was up $2 to $923.20 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 17 cents to $16.87 per ounce. Gold traded flat to slightly up in Asia and then surged in early trading in Europe (from a low of $924 to $936.70) Silver surged to new highs at $17.28.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 31, 2008
The Ongoing Commodities Boom - What Every Investor Should Know / Commodities / Investing
By: Mary_Rivas
Gone are the days when you only needed to know about stocks and bonds to make money in the financial markets. With revolutionary changes taking place in the global economy and investment industry, you can not afford to ignore commodities.
Never before have commodities been in such great demand worldwide at a time when supplies are extremely low. It will take many years for this supply-and-demand imbalance to improve. This means opportunities for you---rising commodity prices worldwide.
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Thursday, January 31, 2008
Gold $1000 by June 2008 As Fiat Currencies Race to the Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Quick Note: My math was done last week on a dirty napkin. The ‘AAA' index on credit default swaps for mortgage bonds perhaps is not indicative of prime mortgages, my error in pasted title for the graphic. Mea culpa! The index contains a mix of subprime slime slices in tranches, for some odd reason. Also, those high quality indexes are actually time stamped, with the most recent being the hardest hit. They contain the immediate decline in recent housing prices, the most recent defaults, without benefit of some home collateral appreciation. My attitude is firm though, that the swap contracts of age one year will lose a similar amount, like 30%. Give them time. Ditto for the swap indexes of age two years. The recent mortgage indexes are excellent forward indicators for the older ones. Read full article... Read full article...