Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Middle Eastern Gold Demand Surges in 1st Quarter / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
With markets in the U.S. and UK closed yesterday for US Memorial Day and UK bank holiday, gold traded sideways in slow trade in Asia and Europe. Stock markets in Asia were positive overnight but European markets have come under pressure and the FTSE has given up its early morning gains to trade flat for the session so far.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 26, 2008
Raising Margin Requirements May Spike Oil Prices Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mack_Frankfurter
Commodity pricing theory mainly focuses on the transference of a “risk premia” from risk-adverse hedgers to speculators. This insurance-like context was first proposed by Keynes (1930) in his theory of normal backwardation. Essentially, Keynes believed that hedgers have to pay speculators a risk premium to convince them to accept their risk.
Dr. Richard Spurgin (2000) explained it in the following way. There are four types of participants in futures markets: short hedgers, long hedgers, speculators and arbitrageurs. Short hedgers are commercial producers and long hedgers are commercial consumers.
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Monday, May 26, 2008
Why Crude Oil Prices have Spiked Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andy_Sutton
Maybe it is just bad timing. Maybe our luck has run out. Whatever the case, it is downright unfortunate that the full effects of skyrocketing world oil supplies had to be realized during the silly season of a presidential election cycle. It is virtually a lock at this point that what needs to be said will be left unsaid and what needs to be done will be left undone. This week as crude oil pierced the $130/bbl mark and headed all the way above $135 before pulling back a multiple of reasons were offered. Some have merit while others do not even deserve mentioning. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 26, 2008
Silver Coin Shortage Could Lead to Silver Price Spike / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was up 3% last week and silver surged nearly 8% (more on silver below) and in normal circumstances profit taking would be expected in the early part of this week. But with oil remaining near record levels and inflation concerns increasing significantly, gold (and silver) may again surprise to the upside. Oil was up by 4.6% last week and is up another 1% today. Gold and silver will outperform oil in the coming weeks.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 26, 2008
Sell Gold in May and Go Away? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
Gold is currently moving in volatile times and to me at least the debate on where it is going next looks increasingly polarized. While the hot money seems to have abandoned gold and silver to ride the crude oil bandwagon (which will certainly suffer the same drop soon), the old maxim "Sell in May and go away" seems to have been pinned to gold's lapel. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Why Gold Will Get Whacked Again! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Gold has recovered from its previous two “whacks” rather nicely this past week and the Friday before, but it will very likely be whacked again very soon, possibly as early as this coming Monday.
Why?
Because gold is rising while the Dow/US stocks are in ultra-dangerous territory.
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Sunday, May 25, 2008
Gold Rallies Towards Resistance at $950 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Despite a good week for gold, it seems to be laboring in its attempt to move higher. Silver, however, seems to be doing okay.
HOLIDAY SCHEDULE - The commentaries will be highly simplified over the next few weeks. Visiting relatives and stuff like that.
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Saturday, May 24, 2008
Rising Crude Oil Price Brings Out Nut Case Energy Crisis Solutions / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Shedlock
The price of oil has been soaring and nut case solutions are coming out of the woodwork in response. I have talked about this twice recently in Congress Threatens Oil Producers and Congressional Insanity: Sue OPEC over Oil Prices .But as silly as those actions are, it is nothing compared to the stark raving lunacy proposed by Martin Hutchinson in Time to do something about oil .
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Saturday, May 24, 2008
Crude Oil and the Polar Bear / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Kurt_Kasun
Last week the Bush administration declared polar bears as threatened species, acknowledging that global warming jeopardizes the species' livelihood as a result of rapid Artic sea ice depletion. The polar bear serves as a symbol for those who view climate change and global warning as the most important issue of our time. On the contrary, the panda represents China 's seemingly insatiable appetite for consuming raw materials, with the world's resources being further strained by the unprecedented growing masses of people in India and other developing nations increasing their standard of living with their financial upward mobility out of poverty.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
Crude Oil Spikes Impact on Gold and Silver Price - Part 2 of 2 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Why Supply is Not Rising with Higher Prices?On the supply side, certain opaque realities are often overlooked and have to be faced clearly. Non-OPEC oil producers are unable to push up oil production as fast as incremental demand is expanding. Old oil fields are declining while new ones are not coming on stream fast enough. This situation will not change in the next few years, unless new oil fields are found.
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Friday, May 23, 2008
The Case for Gold Hitting $1300 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: John_Lee
In October 2007, when gold was USD 750/oz and a US Dollar fetched 7.5 Chinese Renminbi Yuan (RMB), I published an article titled “Gold and RMB – Last Shoe to Drop for the dollar” , in which I said:
For a US family that spends $300 to $500 a month on Chinese goods, a further 40% appreciation of the RMB will translate into a $100 to $200 monthly cost increase. The logic of asking the Chinese to revalue their currency upwards is no different from asking the Saudi's to jack up their oil price further, which is no logic at all for a US consumer.
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Friday, May 23, 2008
Silver Technicals Suggest Basing Patern Before Next Leg Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
I've never seen any other commodity generate such a fanatical following as silver. There are many investors and speculators interested in nothing but silver and its miners. There are financial newsletters focused solely on silver. This metal's ecosystem, birthed by a legendary superspike over 28 years ago, is totally unique.
With so much riding on silver for so many traders, emotions are amplified tremendously. If 10% of your portfolio is exposed to silver, and it doesn't live up to your expectations, you can shrug it off. But if 90% of your capital is deployed in the silver realm, and silver lets you down, it is devastating. This is made all the worse by the capricious and hyper-volatile nature of silver. It takes no prisoners.
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Friday, May 23, 2008
Upside Continuation for ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DUG) / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DUG) is smacking right up against its 8-week resistance line at 28.25, which could stall the upmove off of Wednesday's low at 26.43. However, the overwhelming weight of my technical work argues for upside continuation towards 28.80-29.20 (corrected from numbers in chart below) prior to the initial bout of profit-taking.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
Gold Rallies as Crude Oil Bounces / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES recovered an overnight dip of 0.7% early in London on Friday, nearing the US open above $926 per ounce as crude oil bounced from yesterday's sharp sell-off.The US Dollar held flat against the Euro after a surprise fall in the PMI index, which tracks the European economic outlook.
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Friday, May 23, 2008
China Gold Demand Surges as Chinese Investors Diversify / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down 1% ($ 9.50 to $9 18.10 ) but silver remained firm and closed marginally lower ( down $0.06 to $17.9 2 ) and profit taking on oil's weakness was seen by many as the primary cause of yesterday's sell off . Gold traded sideways in Asia but has rallied in early trade in Europe.With increasing doubts about the sustainability of the recent rebound of the dollar and of global stock markets, safe haven demand for gold is likely to reaccelerate in the coming weeks.
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Thursday, May 22, 2008
Gold and Silver Breakout on the Failure of US Brand of Capitalism / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The gold and silver prices have broken out on the upside, not to register new highs but rather to emerge from a clear bullish wedge pattern in their daily charts. The stage is set for assaults on the 1000 gold high and the 21 silver high. Furthermore, and more boldly stated, the stage was set last January for tremendous moves in gold toward 2000 and silver toward 50 in the next 18 to 24 months, give or take. The crude oil price surged past 100. Next the gold price will surge through 1000, as in SURGE. The key commercial commodity is crude oil. The key financial commodity is gold (silver also). Unprecedented monetary inflation invites unprecedented reaction in the crude oil and precious metal prices, where justice still is enforced. This key cause and effect is sorely missed by slick Wall Street conmen and carnival barkers. They invest privately in secrecy, while they promote publicly with deception, fraud, and influence of public media networks. They invest in the energy futures markets, while talking about speculation as the blame factor. They have yet to read and absorb the Peak Oil phenomenon on billboards. Oil supply reliability and disruption is a key story behind crude oil prices right now, not speculation. Permit me a rant that rambles from one important topic to another, but does conclude with the gold & silver prices, charts, with breakouts evident, and targets claimed. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Natural Gas ETF Reverses Upwards / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After coming within about $0.30 of getting stopped out this morning on the US Natural Gas ETF (AMEX: UNG), lower-than-expected natural gas inventories reversed price direction, which rocketed the price structure to new highs at 56.42. With today's spike low at 54.67, and yesterday's spike low at 54.42, we know where the stops belong. As for the upside potential from current levels, my overall technical work indicates that the UNG still has more upside ahead, into the 57.00 target zone next -- as long as 54.67/42 support remains intact.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Silver Price Manipulation- Paper Silver Versus Real Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
This week I must address the latest Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) findings that, "The U.S. commodities regulatory body found no evidence that silver prices had been manipulated downward by short sellers after re-examining long-term and recent allegations of misconduct."
I was asked by Dow Jones to comment on the CFTC findings. The first point I stated was, "It is not possible to manipulate the trend in a market, but it is possible to "manage" the price within silver's uptrend." I went on to state that the price of silver can be managed, within certain boundaries, through short selling. I believe silver would be far higher if not for selling of "vast amounts" of silver that doesn't exist, or "naked shorts."
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Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Gold Market Shifts Focus to Real Global Inflation Rates / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Christopher_Laird
Gold is shifting focus to world inflation. There is widespread inflation near 10% or more across the world. The EU is escaping some of the worst of it, but still is likely looking at 4%. Inflation in China 10%, India 7.6%.The US has 8% inflation (according to ShadowStats.com based on the method of calculation before the Clinton era, and not that ridiculous 3% which is whitewashed data). The Mid East 10% plus.
Just like Richard Duncan said, in the seminal book The Dollar Crisis, excess USD reserves flowing to our trade partners is causing inflation in those countries, as they have to wash that money into their own currencies.
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Wednesday, May 21, 2008
The Real Reason Behind Record High Oil Prices- Part 2 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: F_William_Engdahl
As detailed in an earlier article, a conservative calculation is that at least 60% of today's $128 per barrel price of crude oil comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York NYMEX futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or Over-The-Counter trading to avoid scrutiny. US margin rules of the government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract. At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme “leverage” of 16 to 1 helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in sub-prime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population. Read full article... Read full article...