Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Oil Crisis Stagflation Spiral Special / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crude oil continued to hit its new all time high of $128 today by closing above $127 for the first time, up 96% in 12 months and 165% in 3 years. The impact of the price hike is both inflationary and deflationary at the same time. Inflationary as oil is the life blood of the functioning of global economies and thus resulting in across the board price hikes. Deflationary impacts as the price hike acts as a tax on the consumer from fuel pumps to food stores thus leaving less money in the hands of the consumer to pay for the necessities let alone for luxuries.
This is creating a spiraling stagflationary environment, as on its own the western economies could have coped with the oil crisis, but having been hit with the triple whammy of deflating housing markets that itself triggered the bursting of the credit bubble that continues to deepen as banks fail to report the true extent of the crisis on the interbank LIBOR market.
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Monday, May 19, 2008
Gold Seasonal Trend Analysis Points to Bargain Hunting Prices Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Michael_J_Kosares
One of the most intriguing patterns in the current bull market in gold has to do with the annual buying opportunity which crops up in the depths of the summer doldrums. As depicted in the graph below, the end of a 20-yr bear market in gold was marked in 1999, and this new bull market was birthed in 2001.
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Monday, May 19, 2008
Natural Gas Failing to Bounce off Support Suggests Trend Reversal / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Interesting situation is developing in the UNG because the price structure pressed from last week's failed highs in and around 56.30 right to a test of the March- May support line at 53.00, which thus far has contained any further weakness. HOWEVER, let's notice that each time prices neared the channel support line, they reversed to the upside SHARPLY- to start a new upleg. So far, THIS TOUCH OF THE SUPPORT LINE HAS ELICITED A VERY MODERATE UPSIDE RESPONSE SO FAR, which could be indicative of an exhausted market, or a just a delayed response.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
Central Bankers Art of Misdirection / Commodities / Market Manipulation
By: Captain_Hook
Central planers and Wall Street prestidigitators are getting better at having people concentrate on the wrong things at the wrong times in my opinion. In terms of present circumstances are concerned, we are referring to their ability to have the street focused on a manufactured rally in the dollar ($), while the effects of their previous inflation efforts run rampant throughout commodity markets, all the while having no material impact on improving the credit crisis, which is of course justification for printing the copious amounts of fiat currency they enjoy so much. What's worse, this latest round of misdirection, a technique used by magicians in case you are unaware, will likely only make the effects of rapid monetary inflation worse over time as more will be needed, despite present claims that the worst of the crisis is over , and that it's onward and upwards from here. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
Gold Prices Jump on Weakening US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
PHYSICAL GOLD BULLION prices rose 1.2% in Asian and early London trade on Monday, reaching a four-week high on what analysts could only call "investment fund buying" in the absence of specific news or financial events.Nearing the US open above $912 per ounce, Gold rose as Far Eastern equity markets ended the day 0.5% higher on average.
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Monday, May 19, 2008
Gold Surges on Inflation Hedge and Safe haven Buying / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was up $20 to $898.40 on Friday and silver was up 28 cents to $16.90. Gold started the week with the rally continuing in Asia and has risen in early trading in Europe to over $910 per ounce.Oil has weakened slightly but the dollar has also weakened slightly and this likely contributed to gold's rally this morning.
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Monday, May 19, 2008
Energy Sector: Crude Oil Demand from China , India , Rockets Upward / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Joseph_Dancy
Long term supply and demand trends continue to keep energy prices elevated. The easiest to locate and cheapest oil to produce on the global scale has been for the most part found. Many of the major older fields are in decline. New production tends to be more expensive to develop, and access to potential fields is increasingly restricted by nationalistic concerns as governments try to control resources to benefit their own citizens. In many areas a shortfall of drilling and production equipment exists. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Gold Suckers Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“B waves can extend considerably and even appear impulsive, and … short term traders may very well try to continue their luck on the long side this week. We seem to have completed the minimum requirements for a 3-wave correction, but as shown in the chart, may need to see the wave subdivide further as drama in the currency and credit markets plays out. ~ Precious Points: Fool's Gold, May 10, 2008Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Silver Major Uptrend Breakout Alert / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The technical condition of silver has continued to improve since the last bullish Silver Market update was posted a week ago. This is because it has held above the strong support in the $16 - $16.50 area, and by virtue of moving sideways during last week, it has broken out upside from the bullish Falling Wedge so that it is now in position to take off immediately, and is likely to, especially given that gold has started to lift off, rising strongly on Thursday on Friday.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Gold Triggers Short-term Bullish Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Friday looked like a break away but there is still some rough territory ahead to overcome. The $950/$960 area may be formidable.
GOLD : LONG TERM
The long term P&F chart is showing the direction of movement now on the up side but still some distance from reversing the P&F bear signal. That would need a move to the $960 level and then it would project only to the previous high for a mild move. My suspicions are that there will be more up and down volatility before any new reversal comes about. But time will tell, one should not be so set in one's view that one cannot change when the activity warrants.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
The Gold Price Fuse has been Lit and the Rocket is Rising! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Peter_Degraaf
Last week I wrote an article titled: “The Fuse Has Been Lit!” As a result of the article I received a number of E-mails from unbelievers.
It's amazing how many people out there still do not understand the basic bullish fundamentals of the gold market. Even a large number of analysts are providing their clients with erroneous advice, by telling them to ‘wait for a bottom'. Many of these clients could well be facing the problem of looking back ruefully at the bottom, long after it is in place.
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Sunday, May 18, 2008
Grain Markets Panic Buying, Export Controls, and Food Riots / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Joseph_Dancy
Long term global demand and supply trends in the agricultural sector remain very favorable for investors. New and expanding biofuel facilities, growing global population, and the upgrading of diets in many Asian countries continues to increase demand for grains at a rapid pace.
Supply growth is constrained by export controls recently implemented by many large grain producing countries, drought in several producing regions, and the lack of readily available acreage suitable for expanding farming operations. Western agriculture methods are also incredibly energy intensive, which increases the cost of expanding supplies. The following developments occurred in the sector last month:
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Sunday, May 18, 2008
Gold and GDX ETF Breaks Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Gold prices and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) are higher this session in sympathy with the surge in energy prices. As of this moment, the price structure has broken above its prior rally peak at 46.68 on 5/09 as well as its March-May down trendline, which triggers upside follow-through to 48.00/30 next.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Gold Pushes Higher on Massive Government Mortgage Backed Junk Bond Swaps / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
PHYSICAL GOLD BULLION prices rose sharply in London on Friday, gaining 1.1% to reach a three-week high of $894 per ounce as European stock markets pushed higher and US Treasury bonds slipped.Crude oil regained more than 1.2% to trade above $125.60 per barrel.
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Saturday, May 17, 2008
The Myth of Lower Oil Prices Ahead / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ty_Andros
Confusion reigns supreme as the mainstream financial press throw thoughts and headlines at you as they WISH THEM TO BE, instead of how they truly are. They do this to FLEECE you and get you to invest in products which serve their interests instead of yours. Never, ever invest based upon headlines splashed in front of you. They are almost always false. Daily activity in the markets provides lots of solid trading opportunities, but these opportunities rarely are consistently successful unless it is within the long-term trends and macro economic picture of the GLOBE, not just the G7. Invest based upon the picture within the US and you will be severely injured. The US must only be considered based upon the larger global economic pictures. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Why Gasoline Price Is Really Rising / Commodities / Gas - Petrol
By: Investmentscore.com
In an attempt to force lower gasoline prices we get many email forwards from frustrated consumers trying to organize a short term boycott against “greedy” oil companies. Consumers are clearly aggravated with these high prices, but the strategies for change that they suggest are flawed. This short article is designed to redirect this consumer frustration toward what we believe is the main cause of the problem and to offer a potential solution.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 16, 2008
Uranium Stocks Continue Bearish Roller Coaster Ride / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.The roller coaster continues. Today is an up day, tomorrow ?? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 16, 2008
Mining Companies Leverage / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Morgan
This week I decided to look over some of our earlier reports and provide some information that can help to clarify some common misperceptions in valuing mining companies. The following is edited down considerably from a November 2007 Morgan Report.
One of the best ways to gain leverage to the precious metals is still in the mining sector and specifically through both junior and senior mining stocks. One analytical method is to take the total resource (indicated and inferred) and determine how many ounces you as an investor are receiving per share or per dollar invested.
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Thursday, May 15, 2008
Gold Correction Near its End on Converging Signals from Bonds and Currencies / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The springtime corrections are really about done. They have gone on for a couple of months. The extent of the pullbacks have been tested and retested. The long-term trends are just about ready to asset themselves again. Grand deceptions have resumed to attempt to fool the public and the investment community that the worst is over for banks, housing, and mortgage bonds. That is not even remotely true. The deeply wounded banks, the sharply corrected home prices, and the badly damaged mortgage bonds have much more pain ahead. Nothing has been fixed. Many mortgage resets have yet to take place. The New Resolution Trust Corp to facilitate secondary mortgages, to bury dead mortgage bonds, and to renegotiate home loans is not even agreed upon, let alone installed. Its operation will be sometime in 2009 at the earliest. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Odds Favor Short-Term Crude Oil Downtrend / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Frank_Holmes
Years ago when oil was $30 per barrel, we were laughed at when we suggested that it could trade over $100. Now it seems we were being a bit conservative.
That said, based on statistical tools we use to measure probabilities, we believe oil is currently overbought and due for a short-term correction of $20 to $35 before resuming a longer-term price climb that could well reach $200 per barrel.
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