Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 02, 2019
Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been climbing higher on balance, enjoying a solid upleg that is gathering steam. That’s fueling improving sentiment, driving more interest in this small contrarian sector. This gold-stock upleg is likely to grow in coming months, partially because of very-favorable spring seasonals. The gold stocks’ second-strongest seasonal rally of the year typically unfolds between mid-March to early June.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities experience, as its mined supply remains fairly steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying dramatically depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Saturday, March 02, 2019
Natural Gas Bottom Rotation Sets Up New Opportunities / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our recent UGAZ trade returned over 30% in profits in just a few days for our members. We believe this continued price rotation below $3 will also setup new trading opportunities for skilled traders. Traders just need to be patient and understand when the opportunity exists in NG for an upside price swing.
The $2.50~2.60 price level has continued to drive historical support in price for over two years now. Until that level is substantially broken, we believe the opportunities for upside price rotation from near these levels is substantial. The immediate upside targets for NG are $2.90 and $3.15. These targets are enough for skilled traders to capture 25~30% returns in the 3x ETFs which is what we did this week in UGAZ. Larger upside opportunities exist with seasonal price pattern, but we are likely 7+ months away from another seasonal rally in NG at this point.
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Friday, March 01, 2019
GATA's Sheer Ignorance About Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
GATA's Sheer Ignorance About Gold
As I have said before, my job on FATrader.com is to further intellectual honesty about financial markets but cutting through much of the dross being presented by most analysts and media outlets.
So, as I am known to do, I will peruse the various posting through the interest for something interesting and then write about it. And, while I cannot say what GATA writes is “interesting,” I can say it is always provides fodder for presenting why so many do not understand the gold market.
In its latest missive, GATA takes umbrage with Mark Hulbert’s latest article on gold To that end, they write:
“Hulbert notes that gold often fails to correlate with inflation, though it is widely supposed to. Indeed, gold's underperformance of inflation in recent decades has been a major disparagement of the monetary metal.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
Peak Gold Is Not Bullish For Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
For over a year now, the South African mining industry has experienced a measurably significant decline in the amount of gold produced. Statistics reported by South Africa last week show that the amount of gold produced by South African mines has declined for fifteen consecutive months. In December, gold output dropped thirty-one percent from the year before.
All mines, including gold, have a useful life which is determined by the ‘extraction period’ – the period of time during which recovery of the desired mineral deposit is procured. The output over time tends to grow at first, reach a peak, and then decline.
As the decline in output for a particular mine grows, the extraction process eventually proves unprofitable. After a certain point, it is no longer feasible to pursue the activity.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
US Dollar Set to Rally and Gold Collapse? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Dollar is poised to rally back to near $97.50 as this recent downside price swing ends. We believe the US/China trade talks and North Korea deal with result in a strong upside potential for the US Dollar and the US stock market as time progresses.
A certain number of industry analysts are starting to announce the recent December 24th lows and subsequent rally as a “new bull market”. We have been suggesting to our followers that this market has lots of room to run as a continued global capital shift takes place. We do expect some price rotation over the next 3~5+ weeks in certain sectors – including the US stock market and Gold. We believe the US Dollar strength will continue to push higher, above $97, with the potential to reach near $99 before the end of this year.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).
Increased shareholder activism, combined with global warming policies of institutional investors and NGOs, are pushing IOCs in a corner, constricting financing options for oil companies.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Bullish Sentiment Won’t Prevent a Breakout in Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Back in 2013 I recall having a bearish view on the stock market due to extremely bullish sentiment readings. The market completely ignored that, made a major breakout through 13 year resistance and continued running for years.
Lesson learned.
Turning to Gold, we find something similar during major breakouts in 2005, 2007 and 2009. In the chart below we plot Gold along with its net speculative position (as a percentage of open interest) and the widely followed daily sentiment index.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Gold and Silver Prepare For A Momentum Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today we warn of a potential downside price rotation in precious metals that may last 3~5+ weeks as metals set up for a massive breakout rally which we believe will start in late April or early May. Our custom indicators are suggesting that precious metals, and the general US stock markets, may be setting up for a bit of a reprieve rotation after a very impressive recovery. Be patient as we believe this pullback in prices will provide an excellent buying opportunity for the eventual momentum rally setting up in about 30+ days.
Let’s start by looking at our Custom Market Volatility indicators. The Weekly chart below highlights the recent recovery in the US stock market since the December 24th, 2018 lows and also shows that the current recovery level is sitting right at a 61.8% Fibonacci level. It is our belief that a period of general price weakness will begin to unfold over the next 10~15+ days in the US stock market. This rotation is very healthy for the next leg higher – the momentum rally we have been suggesting will take place in the near future.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2019
What Do You Want, Mr. Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Barrick wants to buy Newmont. Trump wants a deal with China. Palladium wants to fly into space. And what does gold want?
Will Barrick and Newmont Create Gold Monster?
Do you remember our January 24, 2019 edition of the Gold News Monitor? We analyzed in that report the historic transaction in the bullion industry, i.e. the Newmont Mining’s purchase of Goldcorp, which will create the world’s largest gold miner. Forget it!
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Tuesday, February 26, 2019
It’s Dumb To Have No Gold Amid All Of This / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jared_Dillian
The Green New Deal is silly and not worth our attention. It implies we can have anything we want if the Federal Reserve extends credit.
Let me blow your hair back for a second.
The two biggest US stock market rallies (in the 1920s and in 1990) occurred when the budget deficit was disappearing or had disappeared.
Calvin Coolidge led the US through most of the Roaring Twenties. And he is perhaps the second-least well-understood president of the 20th century (behind only Warren Harding).
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Gold Price Breakout: Three Major Factors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Gold suppression game appears finally to be coming to an end. A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). These factors can be identified, each very powerful, each with a very new recent twist to alter the landscape. All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. They have been willing to destroy the global financial structure and many national economies, in order not just to maintain the political power, but also to continue the privilege of granting themselves $trillion free loans. The owners of the US Federal Reserve, Euro Central Bank, and Bank of England have granted themselves free money in gifted pilferage for a full century. As the saying goes, a nation needs a central bank like an oyster needs a piano. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. They saw corrupted underwriting, corrupted title database, and corrupted demand functions.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Supply Problems Worsen in Minted Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Sales of the Silver American Eagles are off to stronger start this year, and the U.S. Mint has once again been caught flat-footed. Dealers received the following statement from the Mint last Thursday:This is to inform you that we have temporarily sold out of our inventories of 2019-dated American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. In addition, all remaining 2018-dated inventories have been sold too.
The West Point Mint is busy producing additional 2019-dated American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. We hope to be able to re-launch the 2019-dated coins in a few weeks.
Monday, February 25, 2019
Now For The Intense Phase Of The Silver Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
Like all bull markets, the silver bull market has different phases, and theses phases have different intensities of price growth.
There are various indications/signs that silver is going into a phase of the bull market where prices will rise much faster than before. I have covered some of them in previous articles.
Here are a few things to look at.
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Sunday, February 24, 2019
Gold Looking to Break 2018 High - Elliott Wave View / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
In our previous article, we have highlighted the possibility that Gold can quickly retest the high in 2018. The chart below shows the yellow metal has broken above a long term bearish channel from Sept 5, 2011 high. In addition, it has successfully closed above the ascending trend support from December 3, 2015 low.
Saturday, February 23, 2019
China-US Rivalry and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It’s unimaginable what great progress China made in the last forty years. The rise of such economic power triggered many fears (or hopes) about the future international order. We invite you to read our today’s article about the rivalry between China and the US and find whether the Red Dragon will replace America as a global hegemon. And what would such a shift mean for the gold market.
The economic growth of China raises many worries. While some people fear the slowdown or stagnation in the Middle Kingdom, others claim that China will turn the existing international world upside down.
You see, since the end of the World War II, the US has been the most powerful country in the world. The Soviet Union rivaled, but it was too weak, and collapsed eventually. The global hegemony of the US became total then.
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Friday, February 22, 2019
Gold Bullhorns Quieted for a Day, at Least / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over in the gold patch things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.
Any long-time and right minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence.
Wednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.
Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.
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Thursday, February 21, 2019
Gold Weakens After FOMC Minutes / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The recent minutes show that the Fed is divided over future rate hikes. How should gold investors react?
To Hike, or not to Hike, That Is The Question
As Chairman Powell has been good at communicating the US central bank’s plans, the recent FOMC minutes do not contain too many surprises. In January, the Fed took investors by surprise, saying that it could be patient on interest rates. The minutes elaborated on this, explaining that a patient approach offers many benefits – additional data would shed some light on the recent softness in inflation, would enable the Fed official to observe effects of past rate hikes and would allow time for a clearer picture of trade and fiscal policy, and the state of the global economy – and only few risks, as inflationary pressure is muted, while asset valuations less stretched:
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Thursday, February 21, 2019
Gold Technical Perspective – Why So Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Does technical analysis need to be so convoluted? Here are a couple of definitions from different sources:
1) Convoluted: (especially of an argument, story, or sentence) extremely complex and difficult to follow. (source)
2) Convoluted sentences, explanations, arguments, etc. are unreasonably long and difficult to understand.
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Thursday, February 21, 2019
Why Is Central Bank Buying Of Gold So Important? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
There is an old Yiddish expression called a bubbe meise (pronounced my-seh). I guess the closest English interpretation of this expression would be a grandmother’s tale, or in the common vernacular, an old-wives' tale.
Of late, I am seeing a bubbe meise about the importance of central bank buying of gold, and it is making its rounds on websites all over the internet.
We have been hearing for many years about how gold is supposed to soar because countries and central banks are buying the precious metal. Most of the fundamentalists in this market are convinced that this is a bullish signal. In fact, one article I read explained that central bank buying “is significant, as central banks are the 'smart money' given their influence on global economics and access to non-public information.”
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Has Gold Price Reached Upside Resistance Near $1340-1360? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research has indicated that precious metals should be setting up for a period of rotation and sideways trading over the next 20~30 days. We issued a research post on January 28, 2019 warning that precious metals would be consolidated over a 30~45 day period before setting up for a massive upside price move, here. This research was based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system and from our Adaptive Learning Cycles system. We believe this research is still very valid and want to alert metals traders that resistance in GOLD can be easily identified near $1340-1360.
The Weekly gold chart, below, highlights the resistance channel that originates in 2016 and continues with multiple peaks in 2017, 2018 and now. We believe this resistance will act as a price ceiling over the next few weeks before metals prices attempt an upside breakout as we suggested in our January 28 research post.
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