Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

There is a ratio chart, $Gold:$XAU, we haven’t looked at in quite awhile that has helped us in the past to locate some important turning points for the PM stocks. I’m not going to get into all the details tonight but this ratio chart shows you just how undervalued the $XAU or precious metals stocks in general are to gold itself. From the mid 1980’s to the 2008 GFC crash the horizontal blue line was a good place to buy your gold and silver stocks and when the ratio fell to the red line it was a good place to sell those stocks.

Everything changed dramatically between gold and the gold stocks during that 2008 crash period. The green circle on the XAU shows where the failure occurred. Instead of the ratio dropping down to the red line like it had always done before the ratio broke out above the blue horizontal line in a way it had never done previously. At the time I labeled that initial high as the highest the ratio had ever been in history thinking the price action would decline back into the old trading range between the blue and red lines. As you can see that wasn’t the case at all. Instead of getting back to normal the ratio began to go parabolic to the upside and finally topped out in January of 2016 as shown by the small double top, yellow shaded area. That also marked the bottom for the XAU.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report and MoneyMetals.com columnist joins me and reviews the key reasons why we ought to own precious metals -- and discusses the risks of NOT acting now when the price of silver is still cheap. He also discusses why he believes the set-up for the next bull leg higher in metals is going to be different than the false breakout we saw back in 2016. Don’t miss a fantastic interview with David Smith, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, as bulls and bears battle for control of the gold and silver markets, doves have gained full control of monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed announced no change in interest rates – a decision which was expected. But policy makers went further and suggested there would be NO rate hikes at all for the REST of the year.

Bloomberg News Anchor: Doves fly, the pause continues, no change in the Fed's target rate and they are done for the year. The Dot Plot now calls for no rate increase in 2019.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been rallying on balance in recent months, carving a solid young upleg.  They’ve mostly finished reporting their latest fourth-quarter results, revealing how they are faring fundamentally.  Their operating and financial performance is very important for investors, as the mid-tier realm is where most of the gold-stock sector’s gains accrue.  They fared really well in a challenging quarter.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most gold miners logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Two Most Important Recession Indicators and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

With everyone talking about recession, investors desperately need some clues to assess the state of the economy. This is what our today’s article provide you with. We invite you to read it and find out what are the two most important recession indicators – and what is the link between them and the gold prices.

With everyone talking about recession, investors desperately need some clues to assess the state of the economy. We have already discussed how the NBER determines recessions, pointing out that its indicators are not the best tools for forward-looking precious metals investors. We mean here that the real GDP, real income, industrial production, retail sales and employment are not close to flashing red, but even when they do, the recession will already be underway.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed doubled down on its dovish stance. What card will gold play now?

Fed Remains Patient

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on March 19-20th. In line with the expectations, the US central bank unanimously kept its interest rates unchanged. The federal funds rate remained at the target range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent:

The Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

With the UUP ( US Dollar ETF) having a fairly large decline today lets update a few charts to see how they’ve been progressing. Back in August of last year the UUP began to build out a rising wedge formation with today’s price action completing the fourth reversal point when the UUP traded down to the bottom trendline. Sometimes when a stock fails to touch the top rail in a well defined pattern like the rising wedge the UUP is showing, it can be a warning sign that the energy just isn’t there and the stock has run out of gas. To complete the rising wedge we need to see the bottom rail give way which should usher in a strong move for the PM complex and I would think commodities in general.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Silver Price is Cheap vs Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: readtheticker

Metal investors will be paying attention to how out of favor silver is relative to gold. And it is hard to wonder why with the well forecast boom of electric cars expected over the next 10 years. Who owns all the silver? JM Bullion has a series of charts here. Notice the stock pile held by JPM. They will do will if silver gets to $30 USD an once! Chart up to April 2017

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Gold Price To Continue To Base Below $1320 For Weeks / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., believes Gold will continue to base below $1320 for at least another 3~5 weeks before setting up a momentum price base.  Our research suggests general weakness in the US stock market over the next few weeks/months as a Head-n-Shoulders pattern unfolds.  Interestingly enough, our research also suggests Gold may continue to base below $1320 (likely below $1300) for at least another 2~4 weeks before forming a rounded bottom type pattern as a base.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold stocks have repeated their decline once again yesterday while gold and silver soldier on. When will the miners take gold and silver down with them? Underperformance is a critical sign of weakness, there’s no denying that. Would today’s Fed policy pronouncements provide the spark? These are valid questions that we answer for our subscribers on an everyday basis. For you, dear visitor, we have explored everyone’s favorite subject: the CoT report. You won’t get a chance to get bored while waiting for the pieces of today’s puzzle to fall where they belong. While an evergreen, today from an angle you probably haven’t heard before anywhere else. Get wiser and benefit!

Having discussed the very recent developments, we would like to once again discuss the issue of the CoT reports and their predictive power. Once again, because we dedicated the very first analysis of this year to this matter. The bottom line is that CoT’s usefulness as a trading signal has decreased greatly over time and it’s not wise to read too much into it anymore. Our subscribers know the full reasoning already as we wanted to have something to link to whenever we receive more CoT-related questions and comments in order to put it all in the proper context. The thing that we will discuss today is what we recently received about the part of the CoT report – the money managers’ positions.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Some important pieces of the US economic reports, including the latest nonfarm payrolls, have disappointed recently. May indicators (including the leading ones) have hit a soft patch it seems. Will that push the Fed to downgrade its dot-plot or fine-tune the monetary policy mix anyhow? Can gold jump in reaction to the Wednesday’s FOMC policy meeting?

February Payrolls Disappoint

U.S. nonfarm payrolls plunged in February, falling way short of expectations. The economy added just 20,000 jobs last month, following a rise of 311,000 in January (after an upward revision) and significantly below 172,000 forecasted by the economists. The number was the smallest increase since September 2017, as one can see in the chart below. On an annual basis, the pace of job creation increased slightly last month to 1.8 percent.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In recent weeks we noted the bullish outlook for the stock market.

Friday the S&P 500 as well as ACWX (global equity ETF ex US stocks) closed above resistance and made higher highs.

Not surprisingly, as US and global equities have avoided a bear market (for the time being), precious metals have weakened. It’s not a surprise that as Gold failed to breakout both the S&P 500 and global equities (ACWX) held their 200-day moving averages and then made a higher high.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

After gold’s plunge on Thursday, it made a comeback attempt on Friday. But that erased only half of Thursday’s vigorous decline. The situation in silver and gold miners doesn’t provide much ground for optimism either. The silent scream we wrote about in the Wednesday’s Alert for our subscribers brought serious repercussions. Both immediately and step-by-step as in a trainwreck in slow motion. Either way you look at it, just in time for our subscribers to reap the benefits. Today, we will devote extraordinary attention to the USD Index and the 2012-2013 – today link in gold.

In Thursday’s Part I, we shared with you the short-term check on precious metals sector health. In Friday’s Part II, we examined whether the most recent developments changed the long-term view anyhow. Those articles were a limited sample of exclusive care our subscribers get on an everyday basis. Today, we will follow up with even more of such a peek under the hood - another sample of what our subscribers already enjoyed on Thursday. Whether you are reading this article on our website or elsewhere on the Internet, we will now share today’s full picture with you, the visitor, on the USD Index including the Brexit tremors. On top, we will update you on the short-term implications of the 2012-2013 – today analogy. That will be the cherry on the cake. We’ll also treat you to Thursday’s summary that remains up-to-date also today.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It’s been years since the gold and silver topped out in 2011. We have been waiting for a new bottom form and a new bull market to emerge for nearly 8 years. In this article, I’m going to compare palladium, gold, platinum, and silver and show you which of these precious metals I feel is the best long-term investment and also the best trade for 2019.

The analysis presented below is based on technical analysis using previous significant highs, and Fibonacci extensions. Both of these techniques work exceptionally well for predicting price targets both to the upside and also price corrections to the downside. If you have never used Fibonacci retracement or extensions in your trading I highly recommend learning more about them. I have no doubt it will improve your market price projection targets for your investments. I have found this technique to be the number one best trading tool for projecting future price movements in all asset classes.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Hurdles for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

One problem for the gold stock sector was highlighted here and here evidently a little too obnoxiously for the liking of some bugs. The problem was the aggressive bullhorn sounds emanating from every orifice of the gold community the minute the charts broke upward into an obviously bullish technical state.

But while the HUI/Gold ratio has been a distinctly positive technical indicator and many bullish gold stock charts populated the sector, we had noted back in December that gold’s hysterically overbought performance vs. broad stocks was due to pull back, hopefully in an orderly consolidation. Well, the relief has dragged on and the ratio of gold to SPX and its global fellows has been consolidating alright.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies joins me for a must-hear conversation on why he believes central bankers must perpetually keep interest rates near zero -- and the massive inflationary bubble economy that will likely result. Also, find out how Michael is approaching gold and gold related investments for his clients right now. Don’t miss a tremendous interview with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals markets are trading mixed this week as gold struggles to regain the $1,300 level. Gold prices pushed higher mid week but got pulled back down on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, the yellow metal comes in just above that key physiological level at $1,303 an ounce, up a very slight 0.3% for the week.

Silver looks lower by just a couple cents or 0.3% this week to bring spot prices to $15.36 an ounce. The platinum market shows a weekly gain of 1.6% to trade at $834. And finally, palladium is leading the precious metals pack once again – advancing 2.4% this week to trade at $1,559 per ounce.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

The oil bull still managed to score another day of gains yesterday. A meager advance but still an advance, one could say. And be forgiven, as they would not have had examined the full picture. Are we just teasing you now? Come on, there can’t be possibly more to the story... There is. The scenario that we wrote about exactly to the day two weeks ago, has come to fruition. The implications are far-reaching. Time to share.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners are grinding higher in a solid upleg, fueling growing interest in this small contrarian sector.  They’ve mostly finished reporting their fourth-quarter results, revealing how they are really faring fundamentally.  Collectively the world’s biggest gold miners continue to face serious challenges, which often stem from declining production.  That makes stock picking more important than ever for investment success.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most gold miners logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold has turned vigorously lower yesterday. And not only gold at that. Red, red, everywhere in precious metals you looked. The silent scream we wrote about in the Wednesday’s Alert for our subscribers brought serious repercussions. Immediately and just in time to reap the benefits. Today, we will devote extraordinary attention to the long-term view of the PMs complex.

In yesterday’s Part I, we shared with you the short-term check on precious metals sector health. That article was a limited sample of exclusive care our subscribers get on an everyday basis. Today, we will follow up with more of such a peek under the hood - another sample of what our subscribers already enjoyed yesterday. Whether you are reading this article on our website or elsewhere on the Internet, we will now share today’s full picture with you, the visitor, on the long-term charts and signals. Let’s examine whether the most recent developments changed the long-term view.

Friday, March 15, 2019

Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you have been following our research over the past few months, you already know that we’ve called just about every major move in Gold over the past 14+ months.  Recently, we called for Gold to rally to  $1300 area, establish a minor peak, stall and retrace back to setup a momentum base pattern.  We predicted this move to take place back in January 2019 – nearly 30+ days before it happened.

Now, we are publishing this research post to alert you that we are about 15~30 days away from the momentum base setup in Gold which will likely mirror in Silver.  Thus, we have about 20+ days to look for and target entry opportunities in both Gold and Silver before this momentum bottom/base sets up.

Friday, March 15, 2019

Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

• There is a sense of triumphalism in the tag-line, “U.S.A. is now a net oil exporter”. Reminiscent of “Mission Accomplished”; first it’s not true, second; what’s hiding in the wings is sinister.
• In February, in the Permian,  Initial Production net Legacy-Loss (IPnL), which measures change in production capacity, was down 42% on the peak in May 2018
• 98.5% of changes in IPnL can be explained by changes in trailing average oil price. That sounds blindingly obvious; but there’s a catch.
• Shale oil output-growth affects oil prices; so there’s negative feedback-loop. What happened was legacy-loss in shale caught up, shale is still a “swing producer”; but soon they will need $70 WTI.
• Ten years ago the Saudi’s  said $70-to-$80 Brent was “fair”, that’s what the world could afford, and what producers needed to bring in new oil, they said. They may get that, and more, soon.