Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, August 12, 2011
Crude Oil Seeping To Lower Levels / Commodities / Crude Oil
The strong rally in Brent Crude in July put bears on a cautious footing. However, a decisive reversal at Fibonacci resistance has kept the medium term bear outlook intact.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 12, 2011
Gold and Silver Price Relationship? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
The following table sets out the closing Gold and Silver prices beginning last Wednesday - which I now refer to as 'Grey Thursday' - through to last night at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Gold Warning, Cyclical 34 Month Bull Run is About to End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold hit $1805 tonight in trading, a Fibonacci Fractal figure I gave out a few weeks ago as a possible top. We are close to a near term high in Gold and Investors should be trimming back positions on this run. Back as recently as $1600 an ounce I forecasted a run to $1805 for Gold using fractal and wave analysis and behavioral patterns, now that we hit that figure it’s time to update the cycle and where we are.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
China and Rare Earth Metals Monopoly / Commodities / Metals & Mining
First, the bad news - China's constrained rare earth supplies will be an "irreversible trend" and prices will remain at high levels, according to Zhang Zhong, general manager of Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co.
Zhang should know, as his concern is China's leading rare earths producer - the Baatou mine produces more than 95 percent of China's production, while Chinese mines currently account for 97 percent of global supplies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Margin Hike on Gold Futures, France Debt Similar to US / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
THE SPOT MARKET gold price spiked to over $1814 an ounce in Thursday's Asian trade – up 9% on the week – before falling after news that gold futures will be subject to a margin hike.
The gold price at Thursday morning's London Fix set records in all three currencies – Dollars, Pounds and Euros – at $1786, £1105.74 and €1254.39 per ounce respectively.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Germany’s Best-Selling Tabloid Bild's Front Page Encourages Readers To Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold has fallen today in all major currencies except the Swiss franc which has fallen on SNB intervention rumours. Gold is trading at USD 1,791.40, EUR 1,257.10, GBP 1,107.70, CHF 1,318.80 per ounce and 136,976.00 JPY/oz. The yen has fallen by 8.7% against gold so far in August as the yen, while rising in dollar terms, is falling sharply in gold terms (see chart below).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Gold Breaks Above Key Technical Resistance Level / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
In 1923, the renowned investor Jesse Livermore wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal called “The Square of the Numbers.” I will save the mathematics of his economic model for another essay but he used it to predict stock movements very successfully. What is of note regarding this economic model is that gold broke through a key technical area today when it rose above $1,764.00. Until today it was rising arithmetically. It had a nice angle of appreciation but not parabolic. I would characterize the rise as two steps up for every one step back. It behaved as a healthy stock should. According to Jesse Livermore’s economic model it has now gone from an arithmetic rise into a period of time where exponential rises are not only possible, they are probable.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Stock Market Collapse, Gold, Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
What a few weeks it has been.
Numerous times, before the end of QE2 (on June 30), we were questioned at conferences or in interviews about what would happen after QE2 ends. Here is a direct quote from the May issue of TDV when speaking about what will happen when QE2 ends:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Swiss Capital Flows Indicate Metal Surge in Europe / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Behavioral finance tells us that behind every mathematical proof of a financial concept is a human element. Human nature plays itself out each day, as we interact with our portfolios, investments, and the markets to find the “equilibrium price” as determined by all of our errant thoughts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Financial Market Conditions Extremely Gold and Silver Friendly / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
"Buy the TSXV" was the advice Michael Ballanger, investment advisor for Union Securities Ltd., sent to his clients the morning after the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 698 points, the worst loss since 2008. In this exclusive Market Conditions Update for The Gold Report, he explains why he sees the current climate as "extremely gold-and-silver friendly."
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Why Gold is the Commodity Above All Others / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
On Tuesday, the Dow (NYSE:DIA), S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), and the Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQQ) all managed to save a little face as Ben Bernanke reassured markets of more cheap money for at least another two years. Although equities and commodities (NYSE:RJI) have been witnessing a selloff over the past few days, gold (NYSE:GLD) has remained strong. Comex December gold futures reached a new high of $1782.50 on Tuesday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Gold Faces Short-Term Price Trap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Last week Fed Chairman Bernanke raised eyebrows and denied history when he asserted in front of Congress that gold doesn't qualify as money. Yesterday he took the unprecedented step of announcing that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates near zero for at least the next two years. In very short order thereafter it required much more of the money that he believes in (U.S. dollars) to buy the money that he doesn't believe in (gold).Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Gold and the Inflation, Deflation Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
The events of the last ten days are surely for the history books. The story must be told through a prism of the epic battle between inflation and deflation. The Jackass hates the parlance, since each term is abused. Inflation is the expansion of the monetary supply, while deflation is the decline in that supply. The Powerz would prefer that the public misconstrue what inflation is, so that they can continue to exploit it for their private gain and control of entire banking systems. The US Federal Reserve would prefer that the public remain clueless on the inflation threat, by citing the deflation threat in a manner to justify their Weimar-like hyper inflation. They have expanded the US$ money supply through USTreasury debt monetization severely, to the tune of $2 trillion in two years. That is bigtime inflation!! The downstream consequence is a fast notable rise in the cost structure across the entire global economy, complete with loud outcry. The reaction has been to protect against the price inflation (higher costs) and bond deflation (lost value) by the widespread purchase of both Gold & Silver (bonafide safe haven).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Silver SLV ETF Heading Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Looking at the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) from a big picture perspective, all of the action off the major April high at 48.35 has carved out a base-like "cup" formation from early May to late July, which has been followed by a correction that has taken the shape of a "handle."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Mongolia Energy Riches Attract Neighbors and Outside Interests / Commodities / Energy Resources
Pity poor Mongolia, bereft of fiscal resources, caught between the ambitions of its superpower neighbors, Russia and China.Ulaan Bator's situation is akin to interwar Poland, dexterously attempting to reconcile its foreign policy between the USSR's hammer and Nazi Germany's hard place. Who will ultimately benefit is anyone's guess, but the country's nascent energy and mineralogical riches have opened the land of Genghis Khan to a fierce bidding war those ultimate outcome is unclear at best.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Simon Ridgway on Gold Exploration and the Yukon / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Ron Hera submits: The Hera Research Newsletter (HRN) is very pleased to present a fascinating interview with Simon T. Ridgway, President and Director of Yukon gold exploration company Radius Gold, Inc. (TSX:RDU), Chairman of Fortuna Silver Mines, Inc. (TSX:FVI), Chairman and Director of Focus Ventures, Ltd. (TSX:FCV), and founder of the Gold Group of metals mining and exploration companies. Beginning as a prospector in the Yukon Territory in the late 1970s, Mr. Ridgway is today an accomplished explorationist, mine builder and mining financier. Since 2003, Gold Group companies have raised over $375 million for exploration and development projects.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Gold Up as Fed Will Push QE3 if Necessary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
THE DOLLAR gold price rallied to $1767 an ounce Wednesday morning in London – 0.6% off the previous day's all-time high – as stocks and commodities also rose following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement on Tuesday.
Silver prices climbed to $38.67 an ounce – 0.9% up for the week so far.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
When Buying Gold Becomes a Life-or-Death Question / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Jeff Clark, Editor BIG GOLD, Casey Research writes: I was recently asked in an interview if I thought gold was going to $5,000 an ounce. "No," I said bluntly. "I think it's going higher."
"You're that optimistic?"
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Gold Rally Nearing Exhaustion? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
As of this morning, spot gold was trading at $1752.20, down nearly $30 from its new high at 1781.50. This morning marked the second consecutive BIG up-gap (higher) open after the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) challenged its upper channel resistance line at 162.50 (discussed in last Friday's 8/05, 3 PM chart posting).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Gold Bugs Have Won! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
One of the problems faced by economic policy makers is that an impartial referee, the markets, does exist. That referee now holds up a red card. Ultimately, reality and the numbers will dominate ideology. Economic philosophy is fine, if it works. Well, the numbers are in. In the graph below are the results:
Read full article... Read full article...