Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, August 24, 2011
The Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate / Commodities / Crude Oil
It is a well known refrain: Peak Oil is always now ! The problem is that nobody noticed, because oil prices are so high and demand growth is almost zero. The ongoing and real economic recession in almost all OECD countries more than "trims" oil demand in these countries, still taking about 45 million barrels a day (Mbd) on a world total demand of about 89 Mbd, depending on estimates, which easily range through + or - 2 Mbd, and vary even more than that for seasonal variations.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Gold to Roubini: $21,500 Ker-Pow! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Squint hard enough at the Nasdaq Bubble, and apparently you can see the future of gold...
The GREAT SAGE HIMSELF – seer of the financial crisis, gloom-n-doomster extraordinaire – Nouriel Roubini thinks today's gold investors are "sheep or lemmings".
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Gold and Interest Rates, More than Joined at the Hip / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
“Interest rates to remain at zero for the next two years.” Those were the words of Fed Chair - Sir Benjamin of Bernanke last week. With inflation beginning to pick-up – the notion that rates would remain at zero for a prolonged period of time seems “paradoxical” to conventional economic thought. There have been other misunderstood ‘paradoxes’ in economics in modern times. Here’s how Wikipedia explains the relevance of this famous benchmark in economics:
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Gold and Silver Are Soaring Amidst Global Fears / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
While the markets may be breathing a sigh of relief with the Dow (NYSE:DIA) up 37 points on Monday, gold (NYSE:GLD) and silver (NYSE:SLV) are signaling more problems await the global financial system. On Monday, gold and silver continued to rally after last week’s impressive gains. Furthermore, Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Hugo Chavez continue to fuel precious metals (NYSE:DBP) higher.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
The Manganese Market, a New Economic Growth Barometer? / Commodities / Metals & Mining
Manganese's many uses in infrastructure and building materials make its market a strong barometer for gauging the world economy. Soaring growth in countries like China and India has led to high global demand. In this exclusive interview for The Critical Metals Report, Helen O'Malley, a bulk manganese specialist with CRU International in London, discusses how manganese prices are closely tied to the economy and, in contrast to exchange-traded base metals, overwhelmingly determined by supply and demand.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Gold Stocks Debt Crisis Investing, Exiting the Eye of the Storm / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
[Ed. note: This is an interview of Doug Casey by Louis James, both of Casey Research.]
Louis James: So, Doug: London has suffered more damage from recent rioting than from anything else since the Blitzkrieg; the stock market had its most volatile week in years; gold shot well north of $1,800; and the U.S. government almost crashed into its debt ceiling. Smells like blood in the streets. What does a street fighting man like you make of all this?
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Gold Eyes $2,000, Is it a Bubble Ready to Burst? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Even the most avid gold bugs, who’ve been stockpiling vast quantities of the barbaric metal for decades, and endured their fair share of panic shakeouts, were probably in a surreal state of “shock and awe,” while watching the price of the yellow metal soar to within 1% of the psychological $2,000 /oz level this week. It’s as if somebody launched a rocket on the Fourth of July. Since then, the price of gold has soared $400 /oz, zooming higher in a parabolic pattern. After all the bullish chatter on the blogosphere over the past decade, Gold, - the so-called barbaric metal, has triumphed over the stock peddlers on Wall Street.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Gold Reaches $1,913.50, Smart Money Moving into Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
All major currencies are higher against gold today including the US dollar, despite the dollar falling on international markets.
Gold reached new record nominal highs at $1,913.50/oz overnight and profit taking and traders nervous about potential margin increases have led to a 1% fall in dollar terms today. Gold has fallen by more in euro and sterling.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Unreasonable Gold Nutcases Simply Seek Shelter Says Pimco / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
THE PRICE of physical gold touched new record highs against all major currencies at the start of Asian trade Tuesday, falling back by 2% as European stock markets then extended their rally from the summer's near-20% plunge to date.
Industrial commodities also rallied for the second day running, while major-economy government bonds ticked lower once more, nudging interest rates higher from last week's near-record lows.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Gold Prices Hit Another Record – But Silver is the Play to Make / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Jason Simpkins writes: Gold prices had another record-breaking day yesterday (Monday), with gold for December delivery climbing 2.1% to close at another all-time high of $1,891.90 an ounce on the Comex.
But as impressive as gold's run has been, silver may be the better bet.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Why George Soros Selling Gold and Buying Farmland / Commodities / Investing 2011
What asset has appreciated more than any asset since the year 2000?
Answer: Farmland. 1,200%
I was talking to one of my readers and he sent me an article from Panama that talked about farmland. Food prices are skyrocketing all across the globe, and there’s no end in sight. The United Nations says food inflation is currently at 30% a year, and the fast-eroding value of the dollar is causing food prices to appear even higher in contrast to a weakening currency. As the dollar drops in value due to runaway money printing at the Federal Reserve, the cost to import foods from other nations looks to double in just the next two years — and possibly every two years thereafter.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Gold Value Propositions in Turbulent Times / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
It's a good time to stock up on gold stocks, according to Charles Oliver, senior portfolio manager with Sprott Asset Management, who sees a number of the equities trading at their lowest prices of the decade. As he tells readers in this exclusive Gold Report interview, "Gold has gone up 20%. The stocks have gone down. They are very cheap. These companies are increasing their earnings, they're increasing their cash flow, they're increasing their dividends—what a great opportunity."
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Monday, August 22, 2011
The Neverending Gold is a Bubble Story / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold continued to make headlines last week, reaching nearly $1,900 an ounce on Friday before resting around the $1,850 level. Gold’s 15 percent rise to new nominal highs over the past month has rekindled “gold bubble” talk from many pundits. Long-term gold bulls have been forced to listen to these naysayers since gold reached $500 an ounce. If you would have joined their groupthink then, you would’ve missed gold’s roughly 270 percent rise since.
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Gold on the Verge of a Major Price Correction? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Just under two weeks ago I wrote about gold likely running to a final top with various levels ranging from 1862 to 1907 per ounce as likely. So far, we bottomed with a pivot at $1730 which I mentioned to my paying subscribers and we have run to as high as $1898 per ounce counting futures trading on August 22nd. What should we expect now as the most likely intermediate trading pattern for Gold?
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Gold Extremely Dangerous Parabolic Curve as Speculators Build Massive Positions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Near the end of any investment cycle a transfer of ownership normally occurs, from investors to speculators. The asset moves from strong hands to weak hands, from real ownership to fictional ownership in the market for contracts for future delivery. That usually set up conditions for the penalty phase, as those still bleeding from the Silver bear market fully understand.
As we learn from Japan, owners of physical Gold in all forms are aggressively liquidating. From "Tokyo struggles to keep pace with gold rush" by L. Whipp from Financial Times, 20 August,
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Gold Nears $1,900 - Venezuela Formally Requests Gold Holdings Held by BOE Ship by Sea / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
All major currencies have fallen against gold and silver again today with gold reaching new record nominal highs in most fiat currencies including U.S. dollars. Gold reached a new record of $1,894.80/oz - just shy of $1,900/oz.
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Gold Touches $1890 as Treasury Buyers Look to QE3 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
THE PRICE OF physical gold rose Monday morning for the thirteenth time in sixteen August trading sessions so far, recording new all-time highs against all major currencies bar the Japanese Yen as London dealing began.
The price of physical gold briefly broke above $1890 per ounce as Asian stock markets closed the day lower again, but European equities then bounced, with London's FTSE-100 index jumping 2% to regain 100 of the 775 points lost so far in August.
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Monday, August 22, 2011
The Catalyst for Consolidation in the Gold Stocks Sector / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
The Gold and Silver business is one that naturally involves much consolidation. The industry product is the same and the business is such that mergers and acquisitions are commonplace. As many readers know, the secular bear market of the 1980s and 1990s had an obvious impact on the exploration side of the business. Larger mining companies cut exploration budgets because they had to. Fast forward to today and we know that has impacted supply and the ability of the large companies (who survived the bear market) to grow organically. Hence, mergers, acquisitions and takeovers will only increase. Yet we haven’t seen much of this activity despite a raging bull market in the metals.
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Exciting Times for Gold Bugs as the Eurocrats Dither / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold prices push higher as once again the ineptitude of our political masters fails to deliver. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy had scheduled yet another problem solving high level meeting, out of which their followers expected a stroke of economic genius. Instead the two leaders agreed to try for closer economic integration within the euro zone. A result that adds up to sweet nothing.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 22, 2011
Silver at Risk of Revering Lower with Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Although we have seen a quite strong rally by silver over the past week as expected, it is hard to reconcile the prospects for a continued rally in silver with the outlook for a substantial reaction by gold soon. This throws our wave count into question and opens up the risk of silver reversing back down from the upper trend channel return line shown on our 6-month chart that it hit on Friday when it enjoyed a strong up day, and also highlights the possibility that the action of the past several months is a bearish Rising Wedge that will be followed by renewed decline, although for this scenario to become a reality, the price would have to break down beneath the lower supporting trendline of tentative converging channel shown.
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