Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

This is a long article...in summary:

The Short Story:

• $85 by Christmas 2016 sounds as far-fetched as the notion that when Oil was $100-Plus, it would crash!
• The Big Idea then, was that was a classic price bubble – and bubbles always bust
• That was based on a boring valuation for “Other-Than-Market-Value” (OTMV) done in line with very boring International Valuation Standards; nothing radical, no Black Magic, no Black Swans  http://www.romacor.ro/legislatie/08-ivs2.pdf
• The “alleged” price-bubble, led “allegedly” to over-investment which led to over-supply
• That was probably thanks to central banks printing money to stimulate what Ludwig Von Mises called “mal-investment”, which is why you have central banks and “God’s Workers” ordained by Goldman Sachs
• The over-supply eventually caused a bust, predictably
• And then “over-investors” (and/or their banks), lost their shirts. That’s normal, it happens all the time; the only question is who pays; the latest idea of the Fed  is the grand-children do.
• The model says bubble/bust is zero-sum and so the bust is over; because the supervisor of God’s Workers says so
• OTMV today appears to be about $85, so that’s where the price is headed now
• Unless shale oil comes back in a big way – that’s the only caveat.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

"Gold and Silver Bottom Is In" - Silver Guru tells Max Keiser / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

“Gold and silver bottom is in”, renowned silver analyst David Morgan tells Max Keiser on the Keiser Report and warns about paper and digital proxies for money and gold. Morgan, also known as the ‘Silver Guru’ of the TheMorganReport.com, talks to Max about the gold, silver and global bond markets and the ponzi scheme that are these markets.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

US Dollar, Back From the Grave? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

We’ll be leaving for home sometime tomorrow afternoon so I won’t be able to do a Wednesday Report. By the movements in the markets, today is actually a better day to do a Wednesday Report.

There are several times a year when the markets gives you an important inflection point. Today I believe we just witnessed one in regards to the PM complex, the US dollar and the stock markets. Even though the US dollar didn’t have an extremely big up day it did show its hand by breaking out of a downtrend channel while the PM complex had a tougher day breaking down from a small topping pattern we looked at earlier today. Also the stock markets had a very good day to the upside with some completing small double bottoms or falling wedges.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Gold : Just the Facts Ma’am / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

It wasn’t much, a bit less than 4 tons to be exact, but today marked the first day in nearly a month that GLD reported a drawdown in gold holdings.

The last such occurrence was all the way back on April 25.

Considering the amount of gold that has been added since that time (66 tons), a 4 ton reduction is minor. What we will not want to see however is a PATTERN of falling reported gold holdings. That has been the one bright spot for gold that has held steady even in the face of weakness on the gold chart at the Comex. If this changes, then we have an issue.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

SPX, GDX and GLD: All Ready to Rollover? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Death Crosses Across The Board Are IRREFUTABLE Last week, I was looking for a big drop for the gold complex into May 19. We got a huge drop, but not the drop I was looking for. It seems gold is working out a 25- week low while GDX is trying to run 21 weeks to its low. This would place the final washout somewhere near mid month in June.

The stock market looks as though it is about ready to roll over into mid-June also. I have a possible 1807 target for the S&P 500 by or around June 14-15 and GDX 17.68 by or around June 13-14.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Australian Tax Office Declares War On Bullion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Paul_Behan

The Australian Tax Office has started aggressively auditing Australian bullion dealers.  One smaller dealer who had their own range of bullion rounds manufactured has taken the drastic decision to close their business. In Australia, there has always been a goods and services tax (GST) on collectors coins eg: proof coins, but generic bullion coins and bars have not attracted the 10% GST.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

How to Take Advantage of Multi-Week Correction in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan finds gold stocks are on a short-term sell signal and reveals an excellent entry point.

Monday, May 23, 2016

Time to Hedge Gold and Silver Positions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Time to hedge metals positions. Here’s why:

Monday, May 23, 2016

Gold - The Next Top Performing Asset to 2020 & Beyond / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

2016 has been a great year for gold. Its currently up 17%.

This is the best time to invest in gold for the long-term investor.

The Elliott Wave Principle is a form of ‘technical analysis’ that believes investors move between periods of bullish and bearish thinking in a reasonably consistent pattern.

Monday, May 23, 2016

ZAR Gold Price Signals A September 2001-Type Event In The Financial Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

The gold price in South African Rand (ZAR) is often a leading indicator for a USD gold price rally, as well as major trouble in the financial markets. A good example of this was around August/September 2001, just before the September 2001 crash (which turned out to be a major turning point in the markets - not just for the events of September 11).

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Gold Bull-Phase I Continues to Confound (The Trek to “Known Values”) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Plunger

Since January 20th the precious metal stocks have been in an upward impulse. I have classified this impulse as phase I of a new bull market. My essay “The three phases of a bull market” located on this site explains this in further detail.

http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/goldprecious-metals/the-three-phases-of-a-bull-market?post=92292

In short, phase I is the move off bear market lows to “known Values”. Just prior to this move stocks were left on the bargain table and farsighted, wise investors picked them up from discouraged and distressed sellers. I have described this impulse move toward known values as analogous to a beach ball held under water then released.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

Gold And Silver 11th Hour: Globalists 10 v People 0 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

At the proverbial 11th hour, the globalists have a shut out going for themselves with people unable to mount any meaningful opposition. While the word “hour” is referenced, the time could be measured in months, even a few more years. Whatever the duration is, the time frame continues to shorten.

Rather than provide supply/demand facts for gold and silver, amply illustrated with lots of graphs and charts, provide information on Commitment of Traders data, and so much more, we prefer to engage in other situations that may be having more of an effect as to why gold and silver prices are not rallying to price levels that would reflect the true supply/ demand circumstances. These are the more pragmatic reasons for owning and holding either or both physical metals.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

David Morgan: There Will Soon Be a Run to Gold Like You've Never Seen Before / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

 Mike Gleason: I'm happy to welcome back our good friend, David Morgan, of TheMorganReport.com. David, it's always a pleasure to talk with you. How have you been?

David Morgan: Mike, I've been well and thank you for the interview.

Mike Gleason: We've seen some very positive and encouraging market action in the metals this year with silver up close to 19% year-to-date, and gold up 18% as we're talking here on Thursday morning. Although, the precious metals are pulling back sharply this week. Assess the market action so far here in 2016, and talk about what's driving this recent pullback.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Gold Stocks Following Bull Analogs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The gold stocks started to correct this week as large caps were off 13% at Thursday’s low. Both juniors and large caps have made tremendous gains since the January 19 bottom and are ripe for some profit taking. The Fed minutes provided the catalyst for such and we should also note the tendency for gold stocks, while in a bull market to peak in May. History argues that the miners could correct at least 20% now before moving higher.

Friday, May 20, 2016

The Gold Chart That Has Central Banks Extremely Worried / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Steve_St_Angelo

This gold chart should have Central Banks extremely worried.  Why?  Because the change in physical gold and Central Bank demand since the first crash of the U.S. and global markets in 2008 is literally off the charts.

I advise precious metals investors not to focus on the short-term gold price movement, rather they should concentrate on the long-term trend changes.  This is where the ultimate payoff will be by investing in gold.   Now, I say “INVESTING”, in gold because that is what we are doing.

Friday, May 20, 2016

George Soros Was Once a Dollar Vigilante, Now a Ring Wraith Buying Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

One of the inspirations for our name, The Dollar Vigilante, was what used to be called the Bond Vigilantes.

Last seen in full force in the inflationary early 1980s, bond vigilantes were anti-establishment figures who were said to have rebelled. They had decided to keep central banks and governments honest by raising long term interest rates in the open market. They would do so whenever the authorities kept their own interest rates too low, or let budget deficits grow out of control.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Silver Miners’ Q1’ 2016 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s elite silver miners just finished reporting their operating results from 2016’s first quarter, and they were impressive.  This industry continued to drive its costs lower even as silver finally started mean reverting out of mid-December’s deep secular low.  The silver miners are beautifully positioned to enjoy soaring operating profits as silver’s young new bull market continues gradually marching higher on balance.

Silver mining is a tough business geologically and economically.  Primary silver deposits, those with enough silver to generate over half their revenues when mined, are quite rare.  Most of the world’s silver ore formed alongside base metals or gold, and their value usually well outweighs silver’s.  According to the just-released World Silver Survey 2016 by the venerable Silver Institute, silver largely remains a byproduct.

Friday, May 20, 2016

GOFO and Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Gold Forward Offered Rate (GOFO) is the swap rate for a gold-to-U.S. dollar exchange. In other words, it is a rate at which someone is ready to lend gold on a swap basis against greenbacks (the benchmark used to be quoted by a few banks involved in the rate-setting process which were prepared to lend gold to each other). For example, if someone owns gold and wants to borrow U.S. dollars, he can use gold as collateral to secure the loan. The GOFO is the interest rate on that loan. Since gold is an excellent collateral (it’s portable and liquid), the GOFO rates used to be relatively small. Actually, certain rates were sometimes negative in what signaled high physical demand.

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Gold - Pro-Inflation? Anti-USD? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

This is the opening segment from the May 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 395.  I am releasing it for public viewing because it seems, the title’s question has come roaring to the forefront this week.  So the information (including the charts) is slightly dated, but becoming intensely relevant as of now.

We anticipated an ‘inflation trade’ or Anti-USD asset market bounce and this has been going on since mid-February. That was when silver wrestled leadership from the first mover, gold (which bottomed in December and turned up in January), and a whole host of other global asset markets began to rise persistently.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Massive Silver Price Rally During The Coming US Dollar Collapse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

I have written extensively about how the current silver bull market is similar to the 70s. Despite these similarities, silver will (ultimately) perform much better than during the 70s.

The fractal analysis of the US Dollar Index (below) shows some more similarities and differences between the 70s era and now. I believe that these further supports the expectation that silver will perform much better than it did during the 70s.