Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Gold Futures Buying Yet to Start / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has powered higher in a strong new upleg since the Fed’s mid-December rate hike.  But the core group of traders who usually fuel early-upleg gains has been missing in action in recent months.  The gold-futures speculators have not done any meaningful buying since gold bottomed.  This anomaly is a very-bullish omen for gold.  Since these traders’ buying has yet to start, they need to do lots of catch-up buying.

Since the day after the Fed’s second rate hike in 10.5 years in mid-December, gold has surged 10.0% higher at best as of the middle of this week.  Naturally these strong gains were really amplified by the gold miners’ stocks.  The leading GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF blasted 34.6% higher over that same short span, trouncing the broad-market S&P 500’s mere 1.4% gain!  The gold sector is really shining.

Friday, February 24, 2017

Gold Up 9%, Silver Up 14% YTD - Trump, Le Pen, Hard Brexit, Currency Wars Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: GoldCore

• Gold up 1.5% in euros and dollars this week
• Silver up 1.4% this week and now up 14.3% and is the best performing market YTD
• Gold up 9% year to date – fourth consecutive higher weekly close and breaks resistance at $1,250/oz
• Gold up 9.4% in euros year to date as Le Pen’s lead in polls widened
• Gold up another 6.4% in sterling pounds year to date as ‘Hard Brexit’ looms
• French and Dutch elections pose risks to Eurozone itself and the entire European Union project
• Euro contagion risk on renewed concerns this week about new debt crisis due to extremely high public debt and very fragile banks in Greece, Italy and Portugal

Friday, February 24, 2017

Gold, Second Fed Hike and Interest Rates / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The narration of reflation and ‘Great Fiscal Rotation' imply that the Fed will hike interest rates in a more aggressive way in a response to accelerated growth and higher inflation. We have already covered the Fed's likely policy in 2017 in the previous edition of the Market Overview, but let's discuss the impact of higher interest rates for the U.S. dollar and gold once again. It is widely believed that higher interest rates are bullish for greenback and bearish for the yellow metal. Is that really so? Some analysts do not agree with that opinion, pointing out that the U.S. dollar did not rally during Fed tightening cycles. Therefore, the hawkish Fed may be actually good for gold, they argue.

Friday, February 24, 2017

Energy Fuels Provides 'Strong Leverage to Potentially Increasing Uranium Prices' / Commodities / Uranium

By: The_Energy_Report

Uranium has risen 30% from the very low prices of late last year and a trio of analysts agrees that Energy Fuels is in position to take advantage of a rising price environment.

Friday, February 24, 2017

The Oscars – Worth Their Weight in Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

• 89th Oscars to air this weekend
• Oscars have been dipped in 24 karat gold since 1929
• If the Oscars were made of solid gold they would weigh 330 ounces
• 330 ounces of gold is worth $408,210 at today’s prices (nearly €400k & £330k)
• Only some $630 worth of gold in Oscar statue
• Oscars cannot be sold due to regulations
• Steven Spielberg keeps his gold Oscar with the Academy for ‘safe-keeping’
• Shows importance of owning gold in safest ways
• Price of gold has climbed from $20.67 since the first Oscars ceremony to over $1,237 today
  

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

The Best Reasons to Buy Gold in the Age of Trump / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Notwithstanding the strong demand for gold and silver globally, buying activity in the U.S. retail market for physical bullion has fallen noticeably in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. And retail selling in the U.S. has increased. The bullion markets have entered a new phase.

The two terms of President Obama included the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, zero interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve, and multiple rounds of Quantitative Easing. Reasons to buy silver and gold were plentiful. Today, the reasons to diversify into gold and silver are as strong as ever, but they're perhaps less obvious to the average retail buyer in the U.S.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Silver, The Return of Stagflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: DeviantInvestor

Steve St. Angelo wrote an insightful article relating the silver to gold ratio to the S&P 500 Index. I encourage you to read his articles and analysis.

My commentary on the silver to gold ratio:

The following graph shows the SI/GC ratio versus the S&P500 index beginning in August 1971 when President Nixon severed the final gold backing of the US dollar. Currency in circulation, debt, consumer cost of living, and most prices including gold, silver, crude oil, and the S&P rose in devalued dollar units.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Gold: Short End US Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Kirtley

In the years following the GFC, short end yields in the US were contained for an extended period of time as the Fed committed to keeping rates on hold. Given the static nature of the short end, and the shift of monetary policy implications further out the curve through QE programs, long end US rates became the focus. When discussing the drivers of gold prices, long end US real rates (the yield on inflation protected bonds) was the critical factor. However over the past couple of years, the Fed has hiked rates twice, and we now have live meetings with an active short end. This has reduced the impact of long end real rates on gold, and instead shifted the focus to the short end. We now form our view on gold prices overwhelming based on short end rates, as opposed to long end yields. Our bearish view on gold prices is derived from a Fed hike in June.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

2017 - A Sterling Year For Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: David_Morgan

I have spent most of my life watching, writing, speaking, trading, investing, and listening to almost any and everything to do with the silver market. Given this, there are several insights that you (the market) have provided me over and over again, at a level rising to conviction about many retail silver market participants.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES: Example Of What Is Horribly Wrong With The U.S. Shale Oil Industry / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: Steve_St_Angelo

According to Continental Resources website, it labels itself as America’s oil champion.  To be a champion, one is supposed to be winner.  Unfortunately for Continental, it’s taking a serious beating and is a perfect example of what is horribly wrong with the U.S. Shale Oil Industry.

During the beginning of the U.S. shale energy revolution, the industry stated it would make the United States energy independent.  The mainstream media picked up this positive theme and ran with it.  Americans who wanted to believe in this “Growth forever” notion, had no problem going further into debt to buy as much crap as they could to fill their homes and additional rental storage units.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Here’s Proof Rising Rates Are Good for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Mauldin

John Grandits writes: When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December—and then laid out a plan to do so three more times in 2017—theory suggested gold should fall. As gold is a non-yielding asset, the cost of holding it increases as rates rise. However, theory doesn’t always convert into practice.

Since the Fed’s decision, gold is up 7.5%—and it’s no anomaly.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Russia Gold Buying Is Back – Buys One Million Ounces In January / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Russia gold buying returned in January with the Russian central bank buying a very large 1 million ounces or 37 metric tonnes of gold bullion.

The increase in the gold reserves came after Russia did not buy a single ounce in December – a move seen as potentially a signal or an olive branch to the U.S. and the incoming Trump administration.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Gold and Silver Weekly Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the precious metals sector.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Buy Zones in an Crude Oil Bull Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in energy market, noting a major buy signal.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

US Dollar and Gold Battle of the Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

Nothing has changed from my last post on this pair. I mentioned we should expect some backtesting and that is what I am seeing on the charts. This should be expected, IMO as both are at a key inflection point in their longer Intermediate Cycles and the battle is on.

https://surfcity.co/2017/02/15/usd-and-gold-update/

Monday, February 20, 2017

Brent Crude Oil Price Technical Update: Low Volatility Leads to High Volatility / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: MarketsToday

Since our last update on oil two months ago (Dec. 22, 2016) Brent Crude has not gone far, rising approximately 2.4% from 54.82 to 56.16 today. During this time it has traded within a relatively tight range (low volatility), from around a low of 53.61 to a high of 58.35.

The chart pattern that has formed in the past two months is either a bullish symmetrical triangle trend continuation pattern or a bearish head and shoulders top. Whichever way the breakout goes should confirm the next direction, either a continuation higher of the 13-month uptrend, or a deeper retracement off the 58.35 high.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Warning: This Energy Investment Could Wreak Havoc On Your Portfolio / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: OilPrice_Com

Monday, February 20, 2017

The Eurozone isn't Working ... Warns Greenspan, Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

“The eurozone isn’t working …” warns Greenspan

“I view gold as the primary global currency” said Greenspan

“Significant increases in inflation will ultimately increase the price of gold”

“Investment in gold now is insurance…”

Monday, February 20, 2017

Headwinds Continue for Commodities with Rising US Dollar / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

Recent pro-US rhetoric from the current administration is only adding to an existing multi-year renewed strength of the US dollar.

The chant of "USA first" has only been the last of the drivers to push the greenback higher.

Some of the other factors have been unemployment, which has reached a milestone at 4.8 percent, the second lowest level since 2006.

Sunday, February 19, 2017

$XAU – Retesting the 200 Day Moving Average - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Gary_Savage

Mining stocks have broken their daily cycle trend line and are likely to retest their 200 day moving average over the next week or so. This would potentially allow the daily RSI(5) to push down to an oversold reading near/below 30, give the rising 50 day moving average more time to catch up to price, and trigger the stops of traders who bought the breakout above the 200 day moving average within the past month. This is a normal corrective move that is unlikely to last much more than a week.