Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

US Dollar and Gold Battle of the Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

Nothing has changed from my last post on this pair. I mentioned we should expect some backtesting and that is what I am seeing on the charts. This should be expected, IMO as both are at a key inflection point in their longer Intermediate Cycles and the battle is on.

https://surfcity.co/2017/02/15/usd-and-gold-update/

Monday, February 20, 2017

Brent Crude Oil Price Technical Update: Low Volatility Leads to High Volatility / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: MarketsToday

Since our last update on oil two months ago (Dec. 22, 2016) Brent Crude has not gone far, rising approximately 2.4% from 54.82 to 56.16 today. During this time it has traded within a relatively tight range (low volatility), from around a low of 53.61 to a high of 58.35.

The chart pattern that has formed in the past two months is either a bullish symmetrical triangle trend continuation pattern or a bearish head and shoulders top. Whichever way the breakout goes should confirm the next direction, either a continuation higher of the 13-month uptrend, or a deeper retracement off the 58.35 high.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Warning: This Energy Investment Could Wreak Havoc On Your Portfolio / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: OilPrice_Com

Monday, February 20, 2017

The Eurozone isn't Working ... Warns Greenspan, Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

“The eurozone isn’t working …” warns Greenspan

“I view gold as the primary global currency” said Greenspan

“Significant increases in inflation will ultimately increase the price of gold”

“Investment in gold now is insurance…”

Monday, February 20, 2017

Headwinds Continue for Commodities with Rising US Dollar / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

Recent pro-US rhetoric from the current administration is only adding to an existing multi-year renewed strength of the US dollar.

The chant of "USA first" has only been the last of the drivers to push the greenback higher.

Some of the other factors have been unemployment, which has reached a milestone at 4.8 percent, the second lowest level since 2006.

Sunday, February 19, 2017

$XAU – Retesting the 200 Day Moving Average - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Gary_Savage

Mining stocks have broken their daily cycle trend line and are likely to retest their 200 day moving average over the next week or so. This would potentially allow the daily RSI(5) to push down to an oversold reading near/below 30, give the rising 50 day moving average more time to catch up to price, and trigger the stops of traders who bought the breakout above the 200 day moving average within the past month. This is a normal corrective move that is unlikely to last much more than a week.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Gold’s Fundamentals Strengthen / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The January headline consumer price index (CPI) came in at 2.5%, which is near a 5-year high. What happened to deflation? As a result, real interest rates declined deeper into negative territory or in the case of the 10-year yield, went from positive to negative. No this isn’t a commodity-driven story. The core CPI (ex food and energy) has been above 2% since the end of 2015 when commodities were in the dumps. Inflation is perking up and couple that with a Fed that pursues rate hikes at a glacial speed and that is very bullish for precious metals.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

China Disaster to Trigger Gold Run, Trump to Appoint 5 of 7 Fed Governors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason (Money Metals Exchange): It is my great privilege to be joined now by James Rickards. Mr. Rickards is editor of Strategic Intelligence, a monthly newsletter, and Director of the James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and global capital. He's also the author of several bestselling books including The Death of Money, Currency Wars, The New Case for Gold, and now his latest book The Road To Ruin.

Jim is a portfolio manager, lawyer, and renowned economist having been interviewed by CNBC, the BBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, and CNN, just to name a few. Jim, we really appreciate your time and welcome back. It's great to have you on again.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Gold Stock Volume Divergence / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have blasted higher in this young new year, far outpacing the broader markets.  But surprisingly gold stocks’ trading volume has diverged from their powerful rally.  Volume has actually been waning on balance since gold stocks’ newest upleg was born in mid-December.  While volume is a complex nuanced indicator, this bullishly suggests that major gold-stock buying hasn’t even started yet.

Naturally price action is the most-important technical indicator, exposing underlying supply-and-demand trends for anything.  The shares of precious-metals miners and explorers have surged this year because investor demand exceeds supply.  The capital flowing into this beaten-down sector is overwhelming the numbers of shares sellers are willing to part with, bidding up stock prices and driving their sharp rally.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Gold, Silver, US Dollar Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Gold is setting up for a historic rally based on my analysis.  Recent news provides further evidence that the Precious Metals and Currencies are in for a wild ride.  Just this week, news that China’s reserves fell below $3 Trillion as well as the implications that the fall to near $2T in reserves could happen before the end of 2017.  Additionally, we have recent news that the EU may be under further strain with regards to Greece, the IMF and debt.  The accumulation of Precious Metals should be on everyone’s mind as well as the potential for a breakout rally.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Gold During Reflations / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Reflation is coming. We argue that the recent comeback of inflation is negative for the gold market. Why should that be so? Should not inflation support gold, which is considered the inflation hedge? It is true that gold may shine during inflationary times, but a lot depends on the broader macroeconomic picture. Gold entered a bull market in the 1970s, but the U.S. economy was in a stagflation then, i.e. the combination of high inflation and sluggish economic growth. And inflation was high and accelerating. Will this scenario replay now?

Friday, February 17, 2017

Inflation Spikes in 2017, Supporting Gold Prices Despite Increased Odds of March Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jason_Hamlin

Inflation is coming. In fact, inflation rose at the fastest pace in four years during January. Consumer prices surged 0.6% in January from December, double the consensus forecast of a 0.3% rise. This marks the sharpest monthly increase since February 2013, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Gold Trade Note Sighted / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Gold Trade Note is gradually coming into view, its form within structured contracts is taking shape as components. the Petro-Dollar has almost completely vanished. The Petro-Yuan is essentially here in its infancy, in rudimentary form. the leap to the Gold Trade Note will be easy, once the pieces are aligned and in place. This new note for usage in secure trade settlement is in the inception process. It will be structured within existing trading vehicles and platforms. The Russians and Chinese appear to be forming the basis for the payment vehicle within the oil trade. Consider it as a formal reflection of the Iran-India gold for oil trade.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Gold Is Undervalued Say Leading Fund Managers / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

• Gold is undervalued according to a record number of fund managers
• Last time gold was considered undervalued, the price surged
• BAML surveyed 175 money managers with $543 billion in assets under management
• 34% of investors believe protectionism is the biggest threat to markets
• Gold viewed as the best protectionist investment by a third of investors

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Silver, Gold Stocks and Remembering the Genius of Hunter S. Thompson / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger ponders the timelessness of Hunter S. Thompson's "blistering attacks on the status quo" and their applicability to today's political landscape. He also reminds us of the "incredibly bullish" fundamentals for silver and lays out the evidence for why this precious metal is on its way to $25/ounce by mid-year.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Gold Intermediate Cycle Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

NOTHING is certain or guaranteed in Markets.... ever. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a charlatan.

That said, within Bressert's Cycle framework the norm is that a new Intermediate Cycle in any asset should test or breach the Intermediate Cycle downtrend before topping and those are my expectations based on my current analysis on both Gold and the USD.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Gold Bull Market? Or was 2016 Just a Gold Bug Mirage? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Plunger

The consensus view in the precious metals sector is that we have embarked on the next great bull market in gold and silver. The story is gold and the entire mining sector bottomed in early 2016 and launched into its first leg up into early August. The sector then underwent a stiff correction from August to December, and has now finally found its legs and the upward advance has resumed. Money is now flowing into exploration and development plays reflecting the belief in this narrative.

I have an alternative interpretation of the markets action and I would like to share it with you. Intellectual integrity requires me to remain objective and skeptical of the market action since Jan 2016 due to various reasons we will discuss. As an investor I participated in last year’s colossal rally from start to finish, however I am NOT convinced the epic gold bear market which began in 2011 ended in early 2016.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Europe Eyes Sweeping Cash Ban: Are Gold & Silver Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

The global war on cash continues. The cabal of bankers seeking more transaction fees, busybody political leaders, and central bankers who want to experiment with negative interest rates recently threw India into turmoil by eliminating the two largest denomination bank notes.

Now they are preparing a similar assault on Europeans’ ability to transact privately and without giving bankers a cut. European Union officials just published a "Proposal for an EU Initiative on Restriction on Payments in Cash."

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is the Gold Silver Ratio Predictive? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

Gold Silver Ratio

One aspect of the precious metals market today that I like is the Gold Silver Ratio.  It appears to have topped, right along with the 2016 gold bottom, and for all gold bull followers out there this is certainly a welcomed development.  Precious metals bear markets always hit silver hard, while bull markets always see Silver outperform gold.  As a result, the Gold Silver Ratio rises during bear markets and then falls during bull markets.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is This The Top Commodity Play For 2017? / Commodities / Lithium

By: OilPrice_Com

The sweetest spot in the Lithium rush is now definitively Chile: It’s the world’s biggest venue, and it’s about to explode as Tesla flips the switch on its battery gigafactory, Chinese-Korean investors prepare to drop $2 billion on a new Chilean gigafactory, and the government has a change of heart that has lithium at its core.

Against this backdrop, we’re not just looking at the new ‘Who’s Who’ of lithium. We’re beyond that. Now we’re looking at who’s going to advance to new production first, with the highest grades of low-cost lithium.