Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 13, 2021
Gold Holding Up as Cryptos Get Hammered / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As Bitcoin made new all-time highs in recent weeks, an increasing number of investors referred to it as the “new gold.”
Sure, Bitcoin and other digital currencies may have some of the same potential benefits as gold, being alternative stores of value that exist outside the banking system. Cryptos are a far cry from hard money, however, and recent price action may be indicative of why.
This last weekend, Bitcoin prices were hammered. Bitcoin declined from just under $57,000 to a swing low of just over $46,000. That is a $10k drop in a matter of days!
Saturday, December 11, 2021
Inflationary Hubris, the Fed & Gold: Can Inflation Actually Be Good for Everyday Americans? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses Fed actions and how they affect precious metals.
I had thought that prior to this week, I had seen pretty much everything when it comes to the financial press shoveling out Wall Street “spin” in order to proper up the markets prior to the end-of-year bonus-calculating period. I was wrong. The most widely watched financial news medium in the world is CNBC, the very place where the phrase “talking heads” found its origin and the place where, during the dotcom boom of the 1990’s, former Trump Presidential Advisor Larry “Strong-Dollar-I-Hate-Gold” Kudlow would huddle with partner in crime Jim Cramer in a constant lovefest praising the second-largest financial bubble in history.
Kudlow, being a Trump supporter, can no longer show his Republican face in public while Jim Cramer recently tweeted out his esteemed opinion that the U.S. military should enforce the vaccine mandate, ever-ignorant of the U.S. constitution and of the entire concept of “Freedom of Choice.”
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Biden’s IRS Is Mining for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The Biden administration is moving aggressively to raise revenues by any means necessary – including going after precious metals held in so-called “home storage” or “checkbook” retirement accounts.
The IRS recently nailed a couple with a $300,000 tax bill for holding gold coins designated as Individual Retirement Account (IRA) assets – but stored in their home safe rather than at a depository.
The couple had unfortunately relied on marketing material from a promoter who claimed that setting up a limited liability company owned by their self-directed IRA would allow them to store their coins at home instead of through a third-party custodian.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Weak November Payrolls Won’t Help Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
November employment report was mixed. Unfortunately for gold, however, it won’t stop the Fed’s hawkish agenda.Nonfarm payrolls disappointed in November. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added only 210,000 jobs last month. This number is much lower than both October’s figure (546,000 gains) and the market expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 573,000 added jobs). So, it’s a huge blow to those optimistic about the US economy.
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Monday, December 06, 2021
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The hawkish revolution continues. Powell, among the screams of monetary doves, suggested this week that tapering could be accelerated in December!People live unaware that an epic battle between good and evil, the light and dark side of the Force, hard-working entrepreneurs and tax officials is waged every day. What’s more, hawks and doves constantly fight as well, and this week brought a victory for the hawks among the FOMC.
The triumph came on Tuesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress. He admitted that inflation wasn’t “transitory”, as it is only expected to ease in the second half of 2022. Inflation is therefore more persistent and broad-based than the Fed stubbornly maintained earlier this year, contrary to evidence and common sense:
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Monday, December 06, 2021
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive / Commodities / Investing 2021
By: OilPrice_Com
The electric revolution is the biggest change the auto industry has seen since Ford invented the assembly line in 1913.
But an impending supply shortage has put one critical resource in the global spotlight.
With the meteoric rise of Tesla, nearly every major automaker has shifted its sights towards producing the next great electric vehicle.
Ford made headlines this year with its announcement of the all-electric F-150 Lightning, which now has upwards of 200,000 pre-orders.
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Saturday, December 04, 2021
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
You see a commodity going down, then it reverses and starts teasing you with an upward move… only to end up declining further. Is this the case now?
I started yesterday’s analysis with a question that I then replied to, explaining why I thought that it wasn’t necessarily a good idea take profits from one’s short positions at this time, as the corrective upswings could be nothing to write home about, and that it might not be that easy to get back in the short positions at better (higher) prices.
Well, yesterday’s session showed exactly what I meant, and the 4-hour chart found below provides the details.
Saturday, December 04, 2021
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
Over the past year, the price of gold has made repeated attempts to move higher. Looking at a one-year price history of GLD in the chart (source) below, there is a series of progressively lower highs which seems to indicate staunch resistance to higher gold prices…
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Friday, December 03, 2021
The Masters of the Universe and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_J_Kosares
That small group of investment bankers – those Tom Wolfe dubbed the Masters of the Universe – made its fortune trading U.S. Treasuries. It still plays the same role today it always has but no longer occupies the center stage for Wall Street’s bond market. Instead, that role now belongs to the Federal Reserve. Since the introduction of quantitative easing in 2008, it has built a $5.57 trillion stockpile of U.S. Treasuries – a holding equal to almost 20% of the nearly $29 trillion national debt. Even more troubling, it purchased a mind-boggling 60% t0 80% of the federal debt issued since 2010, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.
“At 10:10 a.m. most workdays on Wall Street,” writes Liz McCormick in a recent Bloomberg column (under the unsettling headline, One Trader Calls the Shots in the Treasury Bond Market) officials at the Federal Reserve wade into the Treasury bond market. For the next 20 minutes, they proceed to snap up bonds of all shapes and sizes. They’re impervious to price moves, and they never sell. An indiscriminate bond-buying machine, they’ve now amassed a $5.5 trillion stockpile of the debt.” Wolfe’s Masters of the Universe have been replaced by one omnipresent, spectacularly powerful, and as it turns out, fickle Master of the Universe – America’s central bank.
“For almost two years,” says Gillian Tett, in a recent Financial Times editorial, “a frightening question has haunted the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. No, this is not whether the Fed can engineer a smooth exit from quantitative easing; nor whether this is the right moment to switch the governor (and policy). The question I am referring to is whether the U.S. Treasuries market is robust enough to handle the shocks that might arise from those first two problems. For while the U.S. government bond market used to be considered to be the world’s most liquid and deep asset class, in March 2020 that cozy assumption was smashed apart.”
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Even though the technicals have been predicting this for several months, people were still taken aback by gold’s fall — that’s why they are booing.
While the precious metals received a round of applause for their performances in October, I warned on several occasions that the celebration was premature. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks resuming their 2021 downtrends, investors’ cheers have turned into jeers in short order.
To explain, I warned previously that the GDX ETF could rally to or slightly above $35 (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12, moving one cent above it). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, I highlighted just how quickly the air often comes out of the balloon. For context, the blue vertical dashed lines below depict the sharp reversals that followed after the GDX ETF’s RSI approached or superseded 70.
Sunday, November 28, 2021
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Silver during the post pandemic gold rush managed to break above resistance at $21 that propelled the price 50% higher to just over $30 which the price is now correcting from, and silver being silver the trends tend to be deep and messy, hence why Silver has just about retraced the whole of the breakout move.
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Sunday, November 28, 2021
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The silver miners’ stocks have surged higher recently, starting to mean revert out of deep capitulation lows. Those improving technicals have started thawing the bearish sentiment that plagued this tiny contrarian sector last summer. The silver stocks’ latest earnings season wrapping up in mid-November revealed how these miners are actually faring operationally and financially. Do fundamentals justify more gains?
The silver-stock world is really small, with primary silver miners deriving over half their revenues from producing the white metal increasingly-rare. Only a handful of exchange-traded funds track this forgotten sector, led by the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF. While also miniscule with just $1.2b in net assets in mid-November, SIL is the best-available sector benchmark. The silver stocks have had a wild ride this year.
Their price action closely mirrors gold stocks’, as silver’s dominant primary driver has always been gold. So SIL’s swings this year closely tracked those in the leading GDX gold-stock ETF like usual. Silver stocks were enjoying a solid young upleg last spring, with SIL surging 27.5% between late March to early June. But silver and thus silver stocks were sucked into gold’s sharp mid-June selloff on Fed-tightening fears.
Gold’s taper tantrum for the Fed starting to slow its epic quantitative-easing money printing unfolded in the months leading into that actual announcement. Between mid-June to late September, several bouts of heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling crushed the entire precious-metals complex. The resulting silver-stock carnage hammered SIL 30.2% lower climaxing in an ugly capitulation, fueling serious bearish psychology.
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Sunday, November 28, 2021
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
It appears that the US markets didn’t find the Thanksgiving turkey very tasty this year.
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Friday, November 26, 2021
SILVER Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SILVER Price Trend Analysis
Silver trend over the past 2 years shows a market that has repeated FAILED to break higher, despite going so far as breaching $30 early 2021. However all attempts have resolved towards the bottom of the trading range at $22 where I deemed that the most recent down trend off of a lower high of $29 was probably going to see Silver break below $22 which would target a trend to support zone of $18-$19, a break that has now come to pass.
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Friday, November 26, 2021
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As expected, after the applauded increase, gold fell. But will it manage to bounce off the bottom or rather slide lower?
Today’s analysis is going to be all about gold, and for a good reason. Based on yesterday’s and Monday’s sessions, November is now a down month for gold. Please let that sink in.
Gold ended last week above $1,850, with almost everyone in the market cheering and making bets, on how soon gold will move above $1,900 and then rally to new yearly highs. It was after the completion of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, after all!
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Two realistic price movement scenarios can see silver finally ascend through the magnetic $50 level in 2022. A case can be made that either – or perhaps both – have a strong likelihood of taking place.
First Scenario:
In December, silver moves up from a strong multiple-year base, with an impulse leg-driven First Quarter, punching through strong resistance and spiking into the low '$40's before retreating to its breakout just above $30.
It builds a broad $15 sideways HSR (horizontal support-resistance) price box between $43 and $28.
Volume strengthens on up days, and lessens on down days, creating a descending technical triangle.
In April, silver breaks out of its four-month coil and drives into new multiple year highs between $44 and $55 per ounce, creating spikes above $50, but without managing three closes (above a given price, in this case the historic $50) David Morgan looks for to validate a bullish (or bearish) impulse leg breakout.
Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Gold / Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The chart shows that Silver is in a long-term losing battle against Gold, basically Silver is mostly not a precious metal anymore, it really is an industrial metal, well that's what the chart implies for at the time of panic when everything was crashing which commodity did people turn to? It was GOLD! NOT SIlver! So maybe it is time for the Silver bugs to ditch the alternative to fiat currency mantra and realise that it may have been true at one point many, many years ago but not for some time.
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Monday, November 22, 2021
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, the Cannabis sector has shown signs of increased volume, volatility, and a reasonably strong potential for a price base. Volume started increasing near mid-September as the price of MJ fell below $15. This support level originated from late December 2020 after a significant rally trend from recent lows near $10 – when the Reddit retail trader event started to unfold.
I wrote about this sector and these opportunities in many articles before the incredible rally in late 2020 into 2021.
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Saturday, November 20, 2021
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell maintains that inflation is transitory, but the monetary theory of inflation suggests otherwise. So, elevated inflation could stay with us!,Some economists downplay the risk stemming from elevated inflation, saying that comparisons to the 1970s style stagflation appear unfounded. They say that labor unions are weaker and economies are less dependent on energy than in the past, which makes inflationary risks less likely to materialize. Isabel Schnabel, Board Member of the European Central Bank, even compared the current inflationary spike to a sneeze, i.e., “the economy’s reaction to dust being kicked up in the wake of the pandemic and the ensuing recovery”. Are those analysts right?
Well, in a sense, they are. The economy is not in stagnation with little or no growth and a rising unemployment rate. On the contrary, the US labor market is continuously improving. It’s also true that both the bargaining power of workers and energy’s share in overall expenditure have diminished over the last fifty years.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The mid-tier and junior gold miners in their sector’s sweet spot for upside potential have been powering higher recently. They’ve blasted to several major breakouts after getting bombed out during gold-futures speculators’ taper tantrum on Fed-tightening fears last summer. These smaller gold miners just finished their Q3’21 earnings season, revealing whether their fundamentals support more big stock-price gains ahead.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by their production rates. Small juniors mine less than 300k ounces of gold annually, medium mid-tiers have outputs running from 300k to 1m, large majors yield over 1m, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2m. Mid-tiers offer a unique mix of sizable diversified gold production, considerable output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains.
Mid-tiers are much-less-risky than juniors, and amplify gold’s uplegs much more than majors. Ironically the leading mid-tier gold-stock benchmark is the misleadingly-named GDXJ Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF. It has evolved to be dominated by mid-tiers yielding quarterly outputs of 75k to 250k ounces. True juniors now only account for a smaller fraction of the weighting in this second-most-popular gold-stock ETF.
Just over a third the size of its big-brother GDX major-gold-miners ETF, GDXJ has certainly had a wild ride this year. Showing mid-tiers’ huge potential, GDXJ skyrocketed 188.9% in a massive upleg over just 4.8 months into early August 2020! The extreme greed and overboughtness that spawned necessitated a normal and healthy major correction to rebalance sentiment, so the mid-tiers fell 32.0% into late March 2021.
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