Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 06, 2022
Waiting For GLD To Make New Highs – Gold Rally Is Still Intact / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The calm of the last 3-weeks has resulted in a risk-on environment. This, in turn, has led to a nice recovery rally in stocks. For the time being, volatility has subsided. However, we believe there are many underlying market risks that can still resurface without any warning.
From late 2015 to August 2020, the price of gold doubled, going from approximately $1040 to $2080. Gold then experienced a profit-taking $400 pullback. Gold’s rally over the past 12-months failed to break through its $2080 price level. After retreating back to $200, gold seems to have found support at the $1900 level.
In reviewing the following spot gold chart, it appears we have broken out of an accumulation phase and seem to be preparing to move above the $2080 high.
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Tuesday, April 05, 2022
Problem With Predictions For $20K Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
PREDICTIONS FOR $20K GOLD
Gold at $20,000 is the latest price prediction from a high profile analyst. The article I read makes a strong case for how the gold price could go to $20,000 oz. if the US dollar loses ninety percent of its current value.
That part of the explanation is correct. And it is what I have been saying in my articles over and over again; namely, a higher gold price reflects the loss in purchasing power of the US dollar that has already occurred – nothing more, nothing else.
Since the origin (1913) of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar has lost ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power. It takes one hundred dollars today to buy a similar amount of goods and services compared to what one dollar would buy a century ago.
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
Silver Mining Stocks Q4’21 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The silver miners’ stocks have rallied in recent months, but are still underperforming gold stocks. Silver lagging gold is mostly responsible, driven by big stock-market down days dampening enthusiasm for speculation. But silver will ultimately mirror and amplify gold’s bull upleg, fueling strong leveraged gains in its miners’ stocks. Their just-finishing Q4’21 earnings season reveals they are faring well fundamentally.
With the subsequent Q1’22 ended, looking at the prior quarter’s operational and financial reports seems dated. But because most companies run on calendar years, the Q4 reporting deadlines are extended. In the US companies don’t have to report full-year 10-K results until 60 days after quarter-ends, compared to 40 days for 10-Q quarterlies. In Canada, the epicenter of the silver-mining universe, year-ends extend to 90 days!
Since many of the major silver miners have primary stock listings in that Great White North, late March is about the earliest enough of them have reported to analyze their collective Q4 results. Soon after each quarterly earnings season, I dig into the latest reports from the top-15 component companies of the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF. Despite just $1.1b in net assets, SIL remains the leading ETF in this small sector.
SIL’s lackluster performance recently reflects the ongoing apathy plaguing silver stocks. Between late January to early March, SIL rallied a solid 18.3%. But that proved poor relatively, since silver marched 17.7% higher in roughly that same span. If silver miners’ stocks can’t leverage their metal’s upside, they aren’t worth the sizable additional risks they bear compared to silver. They must double to triple silver’s gains.
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
Gold At $2000 Or $600? No Difference / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD AT $2000
Gold flirted briefly with the $2000 number last month. At $2043 oz., it was several dollars shy from matching its peak price eighteen months earlier at $2058 oz.
With the current gold price at $1958 oz., the $2000 number is the sweet midpoint of that range. It is a nice round number and seems to be the price most gold traders and investors are focusing on at this time.
It is probably a good idea, therefore, to see if the $2k gold price holds any special significance other than what most in the gold community are thinking about.
And it does.
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Friday, April 01, 2022
4 Scenarios for BIG Moves in Precious Metals Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
World events are driving a volatile and potentially pivotal environment ahead for investors. Huge swings in financial markets are likely still to come.
Direction, magnitude, and timing are difficult to predict. But precious metals bulls are eying massive upside potential for gold and silver as war and inflation stoke safe-haven buying.
What follows are four major macro scenarios that could impact metals markets in a big way in the months ahead.
Thursday, March 31, 2022
Commodities are Ripping Higher— Here’s my Top Way to Cash in / Commodities / Uranium
By: Submissions
Commodities are on fire.The price of oil has soared 43% since the start of the year.
Palladium—a metal most often used in catalytic converters—has increased 28% over the same period, while wheat has spiked 39%...
These are major moves. But I see commodity prices headed even higher this year.
Specifically, a huge opportunity is setting up in one of the most overlooked corners of the commodity market.
I’ll show you how to position yourself for this in a minute. But first, let’s look at why commodity stocks have been on such a tear lately.
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Monday, March 28, 2022
Currency Wars Center on Russia’s Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
In response to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the U.S. and G-7 countries have launched a currency war against the Kremlin. Sanctions imposed on the Russian central bank have effectively blacklisted the country from the U.S. dollar-dominated global financial system.
Now the Biden administration is attempting to prevent Russia from using gold as an alternative medium of exchange.
Last week, the Treasury Department declared, “US persons are prohibited from engaging in any transaction – including gold-related transactions – involving the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.”
Friday, March 25, 2022
Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Imagine all the people… living life in the Metaverse. Once we immerse ourselves in the digital sphere, gold may go out of fashion. Or maybe not?
Do you already have your avatar? If not, maybe you should consider creating one, as the Metaverse is coming! What is the Metaverse? It is a digital, three-dimensional world where people are represented by avatars, a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection, the next evolution of the internet, “extended reality,” and the latest buzzword in the marketplace since Facebook changed its name to Meta. If you still have no idea what I’m talking about, you can watch this educational video or just Spielberg’s Ready Player One.
The idea of personalities being uploaded online is an intriguing concept, isn’t it? In this vision, people meet with others, play, and simply hang out in a digital world. Imagine friends turning group chats on Messenger or WhatsApp into group meetups in the Metaverse of family gatherings in virtual homes. Ultimately, people will probably be doing pretty much everything there, except eating, sleeping, and using the restroom.
Friday, March 25, 2022
Hot Commodities! Is the 2-year rally nearly Done or Jjust Starting? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
FREE March 28 - April 1.
Hi,
You may already know that the CRB Commodities Index is up 200% since the April 2020 low.
Even if you haven’t been following the broad Index, you've no doubt felt the effects of rising commodity prices in your wallet.
But there is a silver-lining flip side: Over the past 2 years, commodities have also offered massive opportunities. And they're not done.
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Friday, March 18, 2022
Crude Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?
Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed.
As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat.
Monday, March 14, 2022
Silver $100 – Nothing Has Changed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
In retrospect, nothing much has changed since I published my original article $100 Silver Has Come And Gone in October 2019.
The price is higher than it was at the time the article was written, and that is certainly positive. However, the net change since then does not alter the fundamental arguments stated in the original article. Let’s review the salient points now.
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Monday, March 14, 2022
Copper and Nickel Commodity Market Updates / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
Copper
The global copper supply crisis is getting deeper with each passing day.
Even disregarding the military crisis in Europe and the piling sanctions against Russia that have rocked the commodity markets, copper has always been in a tough spot simply because of its fast-rising demand and the critical role in the modern economy.
More than 20 million tonnes of the metal are being consumed each year across a variety of industries; these include building construction, power generation and transmission, and electronic product manufacturing.
Roskill forecasts total copper consumption will more than double and exceed 43 million tonnes by 2035, driven by population and GDP growth, urbanization and electricity demand.
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Sunday, March 13, 2022
Gold’s next bull leg in progress; but a test is due for the metal & miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
“2022: The Golden Year” activates…
…as gold and the miners hit our short-term upside targets this week.
In August of 2020 we noted the danger signals for gold based on sentiment excess coming out of the acute pandemic fear phase. We also noted the need for a multi-year bullish Cup to build a proper handle after that excess. A Cup’s handle is actually a downward trending bull flag.
In December of 2021we noted that 2022 would be the “Golden Year”.
And so it is. It took 1.5 years of handle-making (see chart below) and that phase, which cast doubt on the monetary metal among the public and even some of gold’s staunchest supporters, was so healthy that words cannot describe. The angst was fueled by gold’s failure to act as an inflation hedge while cyclical commodities flew during the inflation trades of 2020-2021. And thus, an excellent handle to a bullish Cup is in the books.
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Sunday, March 13, 2022
Gold Likes Recessions - Could High Interest Rates Lead to One? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We live in uncertain times, but one thing is (almost) certain: the Fed’s tightening cycle will be followed by an economic slowdown – if not worse.There are many regularities in nature. After winter comes spring. After night comes day. After the Fed’s tightening cycle comes a recession. This month, the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and lift the federal funds rate. Will it trigger the next economic crisis?
It’s, of course, more nuanced, but the basic mechanism remains quite simple. Cuts in interest rates, maintaining them at very low levels for a prolonged time, and asset purchases – in other words, easy monetary policy and cheap money – lead to excessive risk-taking, investors’ complacency, periods of booms, and price bubbles. On the contrary, interest rate hikes and withdrawal of liquidity from the markets – i.e., tightening of monetary policy – tend to trigger economic busts, bursts of asset bubbles, and recessions. This happens because the amount of risk, debt, and bad investments becomes simply too high.
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Sunday, March 13, 2022
Is Investing In Gold A Smart Decision For Retirement? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Steve_Barker
Whether or not you are investing in gold for retirement, it is always important to be informed. This article will help you decide if investing in gold is the right decision for your retirement.
When deciding on what to invest in, one of the most popular choices is gold. Gold has been used as a currency and an investment for thousands of years, and it continues to be a popular choice for investors today. Here are some reasons why you might want to consider investing in gold for your retirement.
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Saturday, March 12, 2022
Why Silver Is an "Oak-Solid" Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Imagine what an oak tree's underground root ball looks like, with supportive tendrils spreading out in all directions, not unlike what the limbs of this magnificent specimen are doing above-ground.
The result is an impregnable presence in all directions of the compass. "Open on strike and at depth" as a mining geologist might say.
Like Mycelium (the vegetative part of a fungus-like bacterial colony consisting of infinitely branching thread-like tendrils that can produce everything from plastics to plant-based meat), silver permeates life across all cultures and climates.
A strong case can be made that a severe and sustained shortage of silver could impede and perhaps even cause an implosion of humankind's technological-quality of life.
Saturday, March 12, 2022
The Ukraine War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
With each day of the Russian invasion, gold confirms its status as the safe-haven asset. Its long-term outlook has become more bullish than before the war.Two weeks have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Two weeks of the first full-scale war in Europe in the 21th century, something I still can’t believe is happening. Two weeks of completely senseless conflict between close Slavic nations, unleashed without any reasonable justification and only for the sake of Putin’s imperial dreams and his vision of Soviet Reunion. Two weeks of destruction, terror, and death that captured the souls of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of civilians, including dozens of children.
Just yesterday, Russian forces bombed a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. I used to be a fan of Russian literature and classic music (who doesn’t like Tolstoy or Tchaikovsky?), but the systematic bombing of civilian areas (and the use of thermobaric missiles) makes me doubt whether the Russians really belong to the family of civilized nations.
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Thursday, March 10, 2022
Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold has hit $2,000 but is still struggling to maintain that historical level. It has already tried 8 times - will the ninth attempt succeed? Many indications make this doubtful.
Gold is attempting to break above the $2,000 milestone, and miners are trying to break above their declining resistance line. Will they manage to do so, and if so, how long will the rally last?
Tuesday, March 08, 2022
Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000!
Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies.
Monday, March 07, 2022
Sanctions Threat Already Wipes Out Almost all Russian Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?
The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next?
A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown.
On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role.