Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Black Swans and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: John_Needham
While it is all white swans and their cygnets on the common at this time of the year in London , black swan events are a very real possibility as John Needham explains in the following article. - Yvonne Lundon-Marchant - The Daniel Code U.K. and Europe
With Fed chief Bernanke trumpeting that the credit crisis is abating, a postscript to his promise that “the subprime problem is contained”, and asserting that the US will not see recession, punters are feeling warm and fuzzy about US markets and apart from an occasional frown about gasoline prices, generally the thrust is that the worst is over. If you are in that camp you may have to think again. As our theme photo shows, tree climbing skills come in handy when bears are on the loose.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
The Danger of Government Intervention in the Commodity Markets / Commodities / Government Intervention
By: Clive_Maund
Just a week ago gold and silver were well placed to begin a new uptrend and while they are still are, we have over the past week witnessed severe testing of - and erosion of - support at a critical level that is leading to rapidly increasing downside risk.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
How Will the Oil Market Drive Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The oil price rose to $139 on Friday and looked like it was 'spiking' to over $150. But is it? That's a rise of 44% this year. A great deal more than technical chart pointers will be needed to understand where oil, food, gold and silver are headed in this environment. If this is the time when consumer and investor demand will rise beyond supply's ability to provide enough, then this is not a 'spike' but a structural change in the market. It will produce a systemic crisis that has to be resolved in collaboration by the world's governments. Are they capable of such cooperation? The prospect of $200 oil then comes into view.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Energy Stocks that Will Profit from Widening of the Crude Oil Crack Spread / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Here at Money Morning over the past six months, we've talked a great deal about oil and gasoline prices. We've offered our predictions about how high those prices were going , and have detailed a number of investment opportunities - chosen as much for their margins of safety as for their profit potential.
This time we're going to detail three energy stocks with the potential for double-digit - or even triple-digit - profit gains. Admittedly, these are longer-shot, speculative plays. But we used a special energy indicator to help ferret out these energy plays.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Gold Rallies on US May 4.2% CPI Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES rallied into the US opening on Friday, bouncing from their second dip below $860 per ounce on news that US consumer-price inflation rose to 4.2% in May.Crude oil and the Euro held flat, meantime, while Asian stock markets closed out their worst week since the global banking crisis began in summer '07.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Gold Sell off Despite Building Inflationary Pressures / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $869.50 in New York and was down $10.50 and silver closed at $16.48 down 29 cents. Gold rallied initially in Asia but has subsequently given up those gains and has fallen in Asia overnight and in early European trading this morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
The Treasury Yield Curve and the Gold Bull Market Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Some very confusing factors are at work relating to the US Treasury Bond market and the gold market. To assume that gold will rise in knee jerk fashion in response to the gargantuan grotesque growth in monetary inflation (aka US$ money supply) is simply naïve for the public and amateurish for professionals. Never in the US history has more confusion reigned within the body financial. This is to be expected, since the US banking system is insolvent, in parallel to the US housing landscape being increasingly insolvent. The nation must soon make difficult decisions on rebuilding the United States , its infrastructure, its energy supply industry, and put down its military weapons used abroad. Some strange effects are detectable regarding the US Treasury yield curve changes in recent weeks. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude OIl and the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dan_Stinson
The USD has completed a leading diagonal and is currently in a wave (2) correction. The current wave up is close to completion and we should see one more wave down to complete wave (2) down. Once this wave down completes, we should see a strong rally in wave (3) up. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Nothing Sweet About Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One thing that I have noticed whenever I publish an article on gold that concludes with a bearish outlook, it tends to be followed by an healthy email response usually informing me that I am completely wrong and that gold is destined to travel to the moon. No other market analysis generates such a response. This clearly signals to me that many, many investors are over weighted in the gold and precious metals which in itself is a warning sign of an imminent peak. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Crude Oil Rising, Clean Energy Reversing? / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Mike_Paulenoff
When I look at the daily chart of crude oil, now it appears that a new upleg
is in progress with a target of ... $150? ... $160? ... who knows? What is
really interesting to me now is the potential geopolitical connections that
could be the underlying reasons why crude just never sustains lower prices
for very long.
It seems to me from what I have been reading that the three leaders around
the globe who are in trouble are Bush, Olmert, and Ahmadinejad. And all
three could be looking at confrontation as a way to save their presidencies,
and/or to try to ensure that their political party remains in office.
Confrontation?
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Gold Sinks to 5-Week Low / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES slid yet again overnight on Thursday, giving back all of yesterday's 1.9% rally to reach fresh one-month lows below $862 per ounce as Western stock markets rallied, led by beaten-down banking shares.Bond prices slipped, pushing interest rates higher. The Dollar rose sharply on the forex market. Crude oil and commodity prices fell.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Oil Bull Market: It's Not Too Late to Profit! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Being bullish (or bearish) on a market should not mean being blind. For instance, I've been forecasting sharply higher oil prices ever since I turned bullish way back in 2001. And I am still bullish. But I also keep my eyes wide open for anything that might get in the way of oil's bull market.
I often step back in order to make sure I'm not overly influenced by greed and fear, which are the dominant emotions on Wall Street. This is critically important when a market gets as euphoric as oil is today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Gold Stocks - the Rumbling Volcano About to Explode! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Rising inflationary expectations keep money exiting the faltering stock markets away from their designer-made "safe havens" - government bonds. The result will be a powerful breakout of the precious metals and their mining shares.
The time for gold stocks to regain their old leverage over gold and ratchet up into their next higher orbit is very near, even though at the moment it may not look that way. Here are the reasons why:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Gold Remains the Fringe Preserve of the Smart Money / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $881.00 in New York and was up $13.20 and silver closed at $16.84 up 27 cents. Gold has subsequently given up some of yesterday gains and has fallen in Asia overnight and in early European trading this morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Forced Commodity Long-term Investment liquidations Coming? / Commodities / Government Intervention
By: Christopher_Laird
The CFTC is looking at changing commodity rules to force big funds to disgorge multi thousand contracts positions.
The CFTC stated the commodity markets are not geared to have big funds sitting on long term positions of thousands of commodity contracts for long periods for foods and so on.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
A Primer on the Silver Basis- Putting Loin-Cloth On The Naked Bogeyman / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Professor_Emeritus
I started writing this piece as the sub-prime crisis was unfolding. I wanted to establish the connection between the silver basis and the budding banking crisis caused by phony bond insurance schemes and the lack of hedging irredeemable dollar debt with metal holdings. My original title was Putting Clothes on the Naked Bogeyman . As writing progressed I realized that it would take more than one article to dress up the bogeyman; hence the revised title. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
US / China Trade Imbalance Driving Dollar Lower and Gold Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Take a gun-boat and 1,200 tonnes of opium, and America could close its trade gap with China tomorrow..."
DO DEFICITS MATTER? Right around the time that English missionaries produced the first Bible in Chinese, the British Empire found itself with a trickier kind of translation problem.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
An Historic Year for Gold... June 2007 to May 2008 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Michael_J_Kosares
July, June, August 2007
- Subprime crisis hits media, discovered to be global
- World central banks inject billions to save financial system
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Oil Crisis Set to Worsen as Crude Oil Exports Decline / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
In ancient times, when mapmakers came to uncharted territory, they would scrawl: "Here There Be Dragons."
Flash-forward to the 21st Century; oil markets went into uncharted territory on the charts last week. Friday's dramatic spike up was the biggest one-day move EVER. Morgan Stanley now predicts that oil prices could hit $150 per barrel by the 4th of July.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Gold Back to $1,000 on ECB Inflation Busting Interest Rate Rising Plan / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked higher in London trade early Wednesday, recovering 1.3% from yesterday's one-week low as crude oil jumped back to $133 per barrel.Asian equities were mixed after the US Dollar retreated from a new 15-week high against the Japanese Yen above ¥107.70.
Read full article... Read full article...