Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Gold Above $1,000, Is this Time Different? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Merv_Burak

Many speculators are getting all excited.  Gold, above $1000, gee – that must mean the sky is now the limit.  If only it was that easy.  Above $1000, we’ve been there before.  We’re there again.  Who knows, maybe THIS TIME things will be different.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Gold and U.S. Dollar Inverse Relationship Trend Implications / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Douglas_V._Gnazzo

Gold - Gold was up for the week, gaining $1.40, to close at $1007.60 (continuous contract). The daily chart shows gold still positively above its recent breakout. The trend remains in place until such time that it isn’t.

Some consolidation is warranted, and perhaps a test of the breakout. RSI is overbought and turning down. All in all the bulk of the evidence is bullish, although waning slightly.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

GOLD at the Croassroad, analysis with reference to U.S. Dollar and COT... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Clive_Maund

In this article we are going to review in a dispassionate manner what gold has and hasn’t achieved in recent weeks and make deductions about the outlook. September is by far the strongest month for gold on a seasonal basis and this year has been no exception. Early in the month it broke out of the large Symmetrical Triangle that had been forming for most of this year, an event which naturally led to wild enthusiasm amongst goldbugs and most of their cheerleaders and expectations by most of follow through to the $1300 area as a minimum objective. While it has since advanced to challenge its highs, and has succeeded in making a new closing high, it has not - yet - made a new all-time high by closing above its intraday highs of last year. Thus it has not yet overcome the resistance near its highs.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

IMF To Sell Gold…Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Mac_Slavo

For the third or fourth time in the last couple of years, the International Montery Fund has indicated that it will begin selling up to 400 tons of gold. While we’re not sure if the IMF will actually carry through this time, or if they are simply sending out press releases again now that gold is over $1000 an ounce in an effort to put pressure on the price, this seems to be the first time that the IMF has set a definitive date for the sales to begin. According the the IMF press release, the start date for gold sales is September 27, 2009. Under the agreement approved by the IMF, they can off load a total of 400 tons per year (they have roughly 3200 tons of gold available). In order for the IMF to be able to off load the gold, the US Congress would need to approve of the sale, which they did in June of 2009.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Shorting Gold GLD and Stocks SPY / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Mike_Paulenoff

We've had an interest in the long gold (GLD) and short SPY (SH) trades this week, where we gained several percentage points on the former and were flat the latter.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

All That Glitters is Not Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Bill_Bonner

Of all the many miseries that man faces on his journey from cradle to grave, few of them can be eased by enlightened central banking. And a credit contraction is not one of them. Japan proved it. After the Japanese market collapsed in 1990, public officials went to work with their characteristic energy and incompetence. They lowered the cost of borrowing to nearly zero. But did consumers take up the money and add to the demand for bread and bicycles? No. They didn’t want to borrow. They wanted to save. They had speculated during the previous bubble years and lost money. Then, with retirement approaching, a penny saved was worth even more to them than a penny earned. They saved more than ever…and the consumer economy sank.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Doomsday for the Natural Gas Market? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Joseph_Dancy

The bearish story for natural gas is becoming very well known. Lots of bearish natural gas analysts are around - rightfully so. With record levels of natural gas storage and weak industrial and generation demand spot prices have dropped to seven year lows (see chart, courtesy Bloomberg).

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Conditions for Global Gold Confiscation by Governments / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

As the sixth and final part of this series we now look at this question: "Is it possible to get a synthesis of world governments to override the attraction of gold??"

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Do We Have a Breakout in Gold or not ? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Bill_Downey

Medium Term Gold Technical Analysis - With gold's entry into triple digits for a second week, investors are asking themselves, is this it?  Is this the big one?  What price will confirm we're going much higher?  Will there be a pullback? 

For those who are not chart readers, consider this.  A doctor does not diagnose you by looking at you.  He tests and looks at his charts for results.  Based on those charts he determines how well you are.  

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Grand Supercycle Favors Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: The_Gold_Report

A serious student of equity market cycles and stock charts, market technician Clif Droke pulls no punches about the fact that the 120-year Grand Supercycle bodes ill as it approaches its end. Although his analyses of charts and cycles suggest some bright days on the near-term horizon, they also foretell depressing darkness by the middle of the next decade. Clif peppers this exclusive interview with The Gold Report with eye-opening and jaw-dropping insights—cut (thankfully!) with a note of caution that cycles aren't the only forces in play and some thoughts about how to take advantage of an impending "recoil rally" before we close out the "best recovery year in memory."

Friday, September 18, 2009

Gold GLD ETF Violates Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)’s violation this morning of support in the 99.20/00 area indicates that the high-level consolidation pattern between 100.00 and 99.00 has morphed into a deeper correction. The correction should press towards the 98.20 area, which represents the lower channel support line. Otherwise, the GLD needs to climb and sustain above 99.60/65 to neutralize the near-term negativity.

Friday, September 18, 2009

The Real Gold Price Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Adrian_Ash

Two charts and three measures of gold's "real" price today...

GOLD'S CURRENT price-tag of $1,000 an ounce suggests big doubts over the US Dollar, its domestic economy, and its status as the world's No.1 reserve currency.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Real Gold Price High, CPI Inflation Indexed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Zeal_LLC

One-thousand Federal Reserve Notes per troy ounce!  This past week gold edged over $1000 to close at its highest levels ever witnessed.  This much-maligned investment has nearly quadrupled since its secular bull’s humble beginnings in April 2001, a fantastic 297% gain compared to the S&P 500’s pathetic 7% loss over this 8+ year span.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Gold Sets New Dollar Record / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Adrian_Ash

THE PRICE OF GOLD bounced from an overnight dip to $1008 an ounce early Friday to complete its longest run of rising prices since Nov. 2007 and record its highest-ever run of London Gold Fixes.

Set by London's biggest bullion banks as a clearing price for large orders – and used to value central-bank and industrial holdings – today's AM Gold Fix was the fifth consecutive fix above $1000 an ounce, setting an average of $1017.15 since Wednesday morning.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Commitment of Traders (Comex) Data Shows Speculative Fever Not High in Gold or Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: GoldCore

Gold closed above the $1,000/oz level for a fourth session and is currently trading at $1,014/oz. During yesterday's trading it touched a new 18 month high of $1,023/oz. The gold open interest on the COMEX rose another 3764 contracts to 478,172 which is still a long way from the record 593,953 contracts seen in mid January 2008 (http://www.technicalindicators.com/cotgold.htm). Indeed such open interest figures were seen for much of the final quarter of 2007 and the first half of 2008.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Gold, Silver and REE / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: David_Morgan

Many have been asking what is going to happen with gold and silver this month, and I maintain it is a tough call. The September month is usually pretty positive for the metals. In fact, there have been several articles talking about the last chance to buy gold under $1000. Frank Holmes, a much respected fund manager, spoke recently about September being one of the best months to be in the metals markets. I certainly don’t disagree with Frank. I’m pretty bullish for September but I’m very cautious going into October.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Geothermal & Nuclear Energy Stars Spark Gianni Kovacevic's Interest / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: The_Energy_Report

"It's all about the management," says corporate development strategist and consultant Gianni Kovacevic, who has identified a single player in both geothermal and nuclear energy sectors—the "absolute leaders in the space." In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Gianni discusses some of the elements that make their management teams so powerful.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Barrick Gold Ripe for Bear Raid / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Burn, Baby, Burn !!! Could it be that one response to the Chinese shot across the bow of the corrupted and leaky USS Derivative ship at sea is the announcement that Barrick Gold to cover their entire hedge book… again? Maybe! They covered them all in 2007, didn’t they? They said they did! This is turning out to be an event every two years. Maybe in 2011 they will announce cover and closure of their entire hedge book again. Last time, the key words in the fine print were closure of all hedged gold positions from operating mines. That meant they were willing to lose billion$ in shareholder equity on all mines not yet open, but with ongoing gold price exposure. No wonder they installed a new CEO recently.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Gold Stocks Still in the Early Stages of a Historic Multi Year Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold Stocks vs. Other Stocks - Compared to various stock groups, gold stocks offer good value. Take a look at these ratios. In nominal terms the GDM index is well above its 1994 & 1996 high. Yet in real terms (against these other stock groups), GDM is considerably below the high in the mid 1990s. Why should we care? It indicates that we have yet to see a widespread move out of other stock sectors and into the gold stocks. That is pretty amazing considering that gold stocks have been rising for nine years.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Sugar’s Recent Key Reversal Week Tempts Bears / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

At the beginning of September, following a significant bull run, a sharp sell-off produced a Key Reversal Week, heralding the end of the likely end of the bull phase and start of a medium term bear phase.