Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, February 07, 2010
Gold Crumbles in the Face of U.S. Dollar Strength / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold performed as predicted in the last update, rallying up to the top of its Descending Triangle before reversing and crashing support at the bottom of the Triangle on Thursday. Many traders were startled by the magnitude of the Thursday's $45 drop. It was a bearish development for reasons we will come to shortly, but paradoxically it was immediately followed by a "Reversal Day" on Friday, which is a sign that the steep drop has exhausted itself - for now. Bulls, who were poleaxed by Thursday's plunge, are already dancing on the rooftops proclaiming that the "correction" is over as a result of the recovery late on Friday. So what are we to make of this seemingly contradictory market action? Let's see what the chart is saying.
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Sunday, February 07, 2010
Silver's Spectacular Crash / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Silver did exactly what was predicted in last weekend's update - it bounced off the support of its long-term uptrend line before reversing and crashing through it spectacularly on Thursday, but then on Friday it bounced back strongly in the late trade, leaving behind a bull hammer on the chart, leading bulls to declare that "the correction is over". The questions therefore are "Was it a correction and is it over?"
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Sunday, February 07, 2010
Palladium The Silent Champion / Commodities / Palladium
"Great things are not done by impulse, but by a series of small things brought together." ~ Vincent Van Gogh, 1853-1890, Dutch Painter
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Saturday, February 06, 2010
Gold, Pension Plans, Insurance Companies & Retirement Programs (IRAs) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
The world's three largest depositories of investments are Pension Plans, Retirement Programs (IRAs) and Insurance Companies. Recently the total investment assets of these depositories amounted to approximately $43 Trillion ($43,000,000,000,000):
- Pension Plans $25.0 Trillion
- Retirement Plans (IRAs) $10.6 Trillion
- Insurance Companies $7.5 Trillion
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Turning Paper to Gold, 21st Century Alchemy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Not only does Chris Potter stand by his claim that India's big gold buy late last year was a game-changer, the way he explains it in this exclusive Gold Report, interview, it's a 21st century take on the classic alchemist's quest of old—transforming lead into gold. Nowadays, the alchemists are the central bankers of the world, and they're successfully managing to turn the paper money their countries are producing (their devaluating currencies, that is) into the precious metal. Poof. There's gold in them there rupees, renminbi, pesos, yen, euros and dollars. And even if you're not a central banker, Chris shares some ideas about riding the rising tide in gold prices.
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Saturday, February 06, 2010
Buying Opportunity for Gold and Silver, Precious Metals Senior and Junior Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Gold, silver, and mining stocks have been declining very rapidly in the past several weeks and they have now reached (or are even below) our previous the target areas for this downswing. Is this a buying opportunity, or should precious metals investors take additional new factors into account? In the following essay we would like to provide you with our thoughts on the current situation in the precious metals stocks: both big senior companies (represented by the HUI Index and the GDX ETF) and the small-cap juniors (represented by the TSX Venture Index)
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Just How Solid is the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
The gold market has fallen dramatically in the last few days. Where will the gold price go now? You will have a large amount of Technical commentary at hand to tell you and the bulk of this will point downwards. Is that enough to make the market follow their predictions? It would appear so, because Technical analysis is a vital part of gold investor information.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Gold's Erstwhile Bull-Market Chums / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold is now more closely correlated with US stocks than with either the Euro or silver...
OKAY, this is getting weird. Too weird, in fact.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Where Will Gold Bottom in this Corrective Cycle? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Around two months ago I advised my Partners to look for Gold to drop to the 1040-1070 area in US dollars. This followed my projection in early August of a Gold rally from 900 to 1250 before the next top, and I was close as we hit $1,225 and rolled over. This correction so far in Gold is normal in a bull market, and is intended to knock everyone off the back of the bull. The bull likes to make sure as few people as possible are along for the ride.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
HUI Gold Stocks Bullish Technicals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Over the last couple weeks, gold and silver stocks have been clobbered. The flagship index that tracks this sector, the HUI, hemorrhaged nearly a sixth of its value in just 8 trading days! Frightened traders have been scrambling for the exits, dumping their PM stocks at any price to rush their capital out of harm’s way.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
The Fiat Money Carry Trade to Buy Gold and Agriculture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Last year it did not matter what you bought, you made money. Today, many are shocked by the drop in stocks, silver and gold. One simple explanation for the drop in silver and gold could be the strength of the dollar. This alone will affect the value of commodities that are priced in dollars. But then, why are agricultural commodities like wheat or soybeans going up? Shouldn´t they also be going down? They are also commodities priced in dollars.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Gold and Silver Break Bull Market Up-Trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE PRICE OF GOLD slumped to a fresh 3-month low for Dollar investors at the start of Friday's trading in London, bouncing $10 higher to $1060 on news that the United States shed another 20,000 jobs last month.
Analysts had forecast a small increase in non-farm payrolls. The US has now lost 6.5 million jobs since Jan. 2008.
Friday, February 05, 2010
Gold Price Crash on Sovereign Debt Contagion and Economic Growth Risk / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold fell sharply yesterday and is trading at $1,052/oz. In Euro and GBP terms, gold is trading at €770/oz and £673/oz. Support for gold is currently seen at $1,025/oz to $1,030/oz and resistance at $1,115/oz.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Commodities CRB Index Bearish Key Reversal Month / Commodities / CRB Index
After deep losses in the CRB Index in 2008, 2009 was marked by a recovery attempt – and to date it has fallen short of the 38.2% retracement. This has been accompanied by certain bear signs that herald a medium term pullback phase now.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Gold Posts Biggest One-Day Loss Since 2008 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
You can almost predict the oft-repeated explanations the pundits offer up every time the precious metals behave irresponsibly.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Emerging Markets' Growth and the Resources and Energy Boom / Commodities / Energy Resources
Specializing in emerging markets, natural resources and global infrastructure, U.S. Global Investors is positioned so perfectly for the times that CEO Frank Holmes might have written its business plan and tag line—"Resourceful Investing for a Developing World"—this morning. All of these arenas of expertise at U.S. Global Investors play powerful but somewhat unpredictable roles in the evolving 21st century worldwide economy. Led by China and India, the emerging markets have placed unprecedented (and growing) demand on natural resources.
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Thursday, February 04, 2010
Gold and the China Commodities Game Changing Action / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Specializing in emerging markets, natural resources and global infrastructure, U.S. Global Investors is positioned so perfectly for the times that CEO Frank Holmes might have written its business plan and tag line—"Resourceful Investing for a Developing World"—this morning. All of these areas of expertise at U.S. Global Investors play powerful but somewhat unpredictable roles in the evolving 21st century worldwide economy. Led by China and India, the emerging markets have placed unprecedented (and growing) demand on natural resources. From gas and oil to copper and zinc, it takes vast quantities of those natural resources to build infrastructure to accommodate explosive growth in population, upward mobility, urbanization and industrialization. So as the other Holmes once said, "The game is afoot." Meanwhile, the developed world can hardly sit by and watch the action from afar. As Frank suggests in this exclusive Gold Report interview, the key to staying in the game—even as the rules are changing—may lie in adapting nimbly and rationally.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Gold In No Man's Land Ahead of US Jobs Data / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE PRICE OF GOLD fell further against a rising US Dollar in Asia and London on Thursday, holding steady for Euro and UK investors as global stock markets sagged and crude oil extended yesterday's loss.
Silver erased this week's gains-to-date, trading below last Friday's close of $16.24 an ounce.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Gold Falls Despite Concerns About Dislocation in Sovereign Debt Markets and Eurozone Contagion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold fell 0.5% yesterday and is trading at $1,102/oz. In euro and GBP terms gold is trading at €797/oz and £696/oz. Support for gold is currently seen at $1,076/oz and resistance at $1,115/oz.
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Thursday, February 04, 2010
Gold, Crude Oil and Stock Market Indexes Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Stocks and metals have been on a steady rise this week. The US Dollar drifting lower has helped to add fuel to the oversold bounce in equities and metals we are seeing.
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