Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Middle East Producers See More Heavy Oil in their Future / Commodities / Crude Oil
Middle East oil countries should increase production of heavy oil as oil prices remain higher and improved technology makes it easier, those attending an industry conference in Bahrain were told.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Constructive Outlook for GLD Gold Miners ETF / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) has the right look of a potentially explosive pattern. My near- and intermediate-term work in the GDX argues that all of the action off of the December 2, 2009 high at 55.40 represents a sideways, bullish coil pattern, which if correct will resolve itself to the upside in a thrust that should test and hurdle the most recent high at 54.63, on the way to 61.00-63.00 thereafter.
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Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Gold, Goodwill, and Economic Growth / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
A correspondent suggested to me an idea about government balance sheet goodwill that's worth sharing. That led me to a few further thoughts about gold and economic growth. The basic idea behind all of this balance sheet analysis is simple. A stronger balance sheet of the government means a stronger fiat currency and a lower price of gold in that currency, other things equal.
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Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Government Debt Disaster and Gold Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
There are many current global opportunities that might escape investors at this time. With so many different influences at hand it pays to keep the radar screen on and one eye on the markets at all times at the moment. Things are moving and developing quickly. Disaster is opportunity in disguise if you can work out how to play the situation.
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Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Gold Reaches New Record Nominal Highs in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold has risen to new record nominal highs as concerns that the European debt crisis could lead to contagion increases. Gold rose to $1,251.85/oz in London and futures reached $1,254.50/oz in New York as risk aversion rose. Bullion advanced to all-time highs in dollars, euros, sterling and Swiss francs as the euro and equity markets again came under pressure.
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Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Gold Hits New Record Highs, Silver Jumps as Reckless Governments Spur Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE PRICE OF GOLD held in wholesale 400-ounce bars jumped against all major currencies in London trade Tuesday morning, hitting fresh all-time highs in Dollars, Euros and Sterling as European stock markets extended yesterday's late drop on Wall Street.
Leading economy government bonds also rose, pushing 10-year UK gilt yields back below 3.50%.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
How to Use Gold to Avoid Vulnerability to Market Volatility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Human nature being what it is, sucker punches to the portfolio can erode more than your net worth. They can wreak havoc with your sense of self-worth as well. After more than 20 years at the helm of U.S. Global Investors, a leading investment management firm that specializes in gold, natural resources, emerging markets and global infrastructure opportunities, Frank Holmes says that it's important to segregate bad things that happen on the outside from the good person you are on the inside. Knowing full-well that even the most prudent investor can't escape the wild volatility that's come to characterize the markets, in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, he also offers some sage advice about how to avoid vulnerability to that volatility.
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Tuesday, June 08, 2010
The Doctor and the Dealman: Energy Resources Sector Investing Update / Commodities / Energy Resources
It has been a busy day in Rome, doing the Vatican Museum, St. Peter's and the Trevi Fountain. But I have to find time to get you your Outside the Box and have I got a great one for you. David Galland of Casey Research was kind enough to let me use an interview he did with two of his energy research staff normally only available to his subscribers. A big thank you to David.
This is a special treat for Outside the Box readers, as they talk about the future of the energy markets. I have been following their work for some time and I think they are the real deal if you are looking for an energy letter to regularly read. You can subscribe at here.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Carpe Diem, Seize the Day, Gold at New Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
We currently have the world's financial and currency markets in turmoil. The debt issues of the world, the latest being Hungary, driving down the markets on Friday.
As we write this piece the gold market has exploded to the upside which is not surprising to us with our view of where we see gold in the coming months. See our forecast below.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Who Controls the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
When gold price are slammed down in one day, as they were on Friday by more than $20 it is certain that some sort of concerted action was taken to push the price down. Fingers point at the leading U.S. banks. But then later on Friday, before its close, there came a huge surge in buying that took the gold price up to $1,220 from $1,192. This pressure equaled or bettered the downward pressures seen in that day. This bodes well this week for pressures between these two blocs to continue or even heighten until the gold price breaks one way or the other. It's time to look at who is controlling the gold market?
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Gold Hits New Euro Record as France Wants Parity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE PRICE OF GOLD edged 0.5% lower against the US Dollar early Monday, trading at $1213 an ounce by lunchtime in London, as world stock markets, commodity prices and other currencies rallied from sharp losses.
The Euro made a new four-year low at the start of Asian trade, falling below $1.19 in response to French prime minister Villon saying he had "No concerns" about the Euro's 20% decline in 2010-to-date.
Monday, June 07, 2010
Government Desperate, Gold Tax Imminent? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
To show you how things get around, I get this from Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily, which linked to an essay by Adrian Ash, at bullionvault.com, bearing the title “Gold Gets All Political.”
The thrust is that, as Mr. Steer says, “Adrian floats the disturbing possibility that governments, looking around for easy sources of revenue, may decide to tax the private ownership of gold.”
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Gold's Value and Government Balance Sheets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Sometimes people ask me about valuing gold by taking into account the assets that a government owns, like land, bridges, and highways. Maybe they are thinking of the suggestion that Greece sell some of its islands in order to pay down its debt. That would indeed improve its cash flow position.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
What You Always Wanted To Know About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
The following is a transcript of an interview requested by a gold-friendly hedge fund.
Q.: Professor Fekete, you are known as a staunch advocate of a return to the gold standard. But mainstream economists are saying a gold standard is not practicable and they are fighting the idea with everything they have. How do you answer their criticism?
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Monday, June 07, 2010
U.S. Dollar and Gold Trading, The Trend Is Your Friend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Playing the markets is not an easy occupation. One normally thinks that it involves buying at the bottom and selling at the top. But in fact, one must make a new decision every trading day. We had a good illustration of this on Friday, June 4 when gold plunged sharply in the morning, and at the same time the dollar broke out of a small triangle to the upside. Since the dollar often moves opposite to gold, this was a bearish signal for gold. A year’s trading, then requires 250 decisions. A decade’s trading requires 2,500 decisions. Fortunately, to make money we do not need to get all of them right. A good majority will suffice.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Crude Oil and Copper Better Value Than Gold / Commodities / Commodities Trading
There have been some nice pullbacks in commodities like copper and crude (Chart 1), which should trend significantly higher by year-end. Both crude oil and copper tumbled after the Labor Department May jobs report and the fear about Europe heightened by the total clueless-about-financial-markets comment from Hungary’s Prime Minister.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Gold Still Just a Baby Bull / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
It's sad to say but I'm afraid 90/95% of all retail traders/investors are not going to successfully ride the gold bull. The reason of course is that they are deathly afraid of draw downs. It's glaringly apparent every time gold pulls back or suffers the slightest correction. Immediately a slew of traders come on the blog and warned of impending doom. "Gold is going to $600" (think Elliot wave). Some are even brave (maybe I should say 'foolish') enough to short. Here is one we hear a lot lately, "miners are going to get crushed if the stock market enters a new leg down in the secular bear market".
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Implications of the Gold Silver Price Divergence... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
In this article we are going to consider the implications of gold’s new highs of late last year and a month or so ago not being confirmed by new highs in either silver or the Precious Metal stock indices, and consider other factors having an important bearing on the outlook. Normally such a non-confirmation results in a reversal, if it persists, which is why it is a focus of concern at this time.
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Gold’s Role / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
The 5% X 3 box reversal Point & Figure chart below (of the ratio of the gold price to the commodities index) – courtesy stockcharts.com – shows an amazingly consistent pattern since 2005: A strong breakout, followed by a modest consolidation, followed by a strong breakout.
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Silver and Contracting U.S. Money Supply Flash Gold Trend Warning / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
How many nations must experience a traumatic withdrawal from addiction to debt? Repeatedly, now again with Portugal, we have confirmation that one cannot borrow one’s way to prosperity. Keynesian economic dogma must be declared a complete failure. What Texas really needs to purge from its text books is all reference to Keynesian economic dogma, perhaps saving the financial souls of future generations.
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