Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, June 07, 2010
Carpe Diem, Seize the Day, Gold at New Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
We currently have the world's financial and currency markets in turmoil. The debt issues of the world, the latest being Hungary, driving down the markets on Friday.
As we write this piece the gold market has exploded to the upside which is not surprising to us with our view of where we see gold in the coming months. See our forecast below.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Who Controls the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
When gold price are slammed down in one day, as they were on Friday by more than $20 it is certain that some sort of concerted action was taken to push the price down. Fingers point at the leading U.S. banks. But then later on Friday, before its close, there came a huge surge in buying that took the gold price up to $1,220 from $1,192. This pressure equaled or bettered the downward pressures seen in that day. This bodes well this week for pressures between these two blocs to continue or even heighten until the gold price breaks one way or the other. It's time to look at who is controlling the gold market?
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Gold Hits New Euro Record as France Wants Parity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
THE PRICE OF GOLD edged 0.5% lower against the US Dollar early Monday, trading at $1213 an ounce by lunchtime in London, as world stock markets, commodity prices and other currencies rallied from sharp losses.
The Euro made a new four-year low at the start of Asian trade, falling below $1.19 in response to French prime minister Villon saying he had "No concerns" about the Euro's 20% decline in 2010-to-date.
Monday, June 07, 2010
Government Desperate, Gold Tax Imminent? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
To show you how things get around, I get this from Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily, which linked to an essay by Adrian Ash, at bullionvault.com, bearing the title “Gold Gets All Political.”
The thrust is that, as Mr. Steer says, “Adrian floats the disturbing possibility that governments, looking around for easy sources of revenue, may decide to tax the private ownership of gold.”
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Gold's Value and Government Balance Sheets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Sometimes people ask me about valuing gold by taking into account the assets that a government owns, like land, bridges, and highways. Maybe they are thinking of the suggestion that Greece sell some of its islands in order to pay down its debt. That would indeed improve its cash flow position.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
What You Always Wanted To Know About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
The following is a transcript of an interview requested by a gold-friendly hedge fund.
Q.: Professor Fekete, you are known as a staunch advocate of a return to the gold standard. But mainstream economists are saying a gold standard is not practicable and they are fighting the idea with everything they have. How do you answer their criticism?
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Monday, June 07, 2010
U.S. Dollar and Gold Trading, The Trend Is Your Friend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Playing the markets is not an easy occupation. One normally thinks that it involves buying at the bottom and selling at the top. But in fact, one must make a new decision every trading day. We had a good illustration of this on Friday, June 4 when gold plunged sharply in the morning, and at the same time the dollar broke out of a small triangle to the upside. Since the dollar often moves opposite to gold, this was a bearish signal for gold. A year’s trading, then requires 250 decisions. A decade’s trading requires 2,500 decisions. Fortunately, to make money we do not need to get all of them right. A good majority will suffice.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Crude Oil and Copper Better Value Than Gold / Commodities / Commodities Trading
There have been some nice pullbacks in commodities like copper and crude (Chart 1), which should trend significantly higher by year-end. Both crude oil and copper tumbled after the Labor Department May jobs report and the fear about Europe heightened by the total clueless-about-financial-markets comment from Hungary’s Prime Minister.
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Monday, June 07, 2010
Gold Still Just a Baby Bull / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
It's sad to say but I'm afraid 90/95% of all retail traders/investors are not going to successfully ride the gold bull. The reason of course is that they are deathly afraid of draw downs. It's glaringly apparent every time gold pulls back or suffers the slightest correction. Immediately a slew of traders come on the blog and warned of impending doom. "Gold is going to $600" (think Elliot wave). Some are even brave (maybe I should say 'foolish') enough to short. Here is one we hear a lot lately, "miners are going to get crushed if the stock market enters a new leg down in the secular bear market".
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Implications of the Gold Silver Price Divergence... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
In this article we are going to consider the implications of gold’s new highs of late last year and a month or so ago not being confirmed by new highs in either silver or the Precious Metal stock indices, and consider other factors having an important bearing on the outlook. Normally such a non-confirmation results in a reversal, if it persists, which is why it is a focus of concern at this time.
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Gold’s Role / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
The 5% X 3 box reversal Point & Figure chart below (of the ratio of the gold price to the commodities index) – courtesy stockcharts.com – shows an amazingly consistent pattern since 2005: A strong breakout, followed by a modest consolidation, followed by a strong breakout.
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Silver and Contracting U.S. Money Supply Flash Gold Trend Warning / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
How many nations must experience a traumatic withdrawal from addiction to debt? Repeatedly, now again with Portugal, we have confirmation that one cannot borrow one’s way to prosperity. Keynesian economic dogma must be declared a complete failure. What Texas really needs to purge from its text books is all reference to Keynesian economic dogma, perhaps saving the financial souls of future generations.
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Gold More Downside Looks Possible / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
We had a little bounce on Friday but is this a reversal? I don’t think so, at least not a major reversal. More downside still looks possible ahead.
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Gold Price Will Explode Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Chris Blasi writes: If 1+1 still equals 2 then gold will explode. It’s really that simple! Once you tune out the white noise of the main stream media, recognize Keynesian economics for the claptrap it is, and come to terms with the painful reality that policymakers and financial elites navigate the ship of state to their benefit, not yours, the basic truth of this premise should resonate with you.
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Saturday, June 05, 2010
Gold's Fundamental Value / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
The estimate of gold's fundamental value reported in this article won't be much different from earlier estimates of mine or others. What's new here is a tad more insight into the assumptions that go into this estimate. Knowing this might alter one's confidence in the estimates, up or down. The perspective herein is definitely fundamental.
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Saturday, June 05, 2010
Gold Forecast to Hit $2,000 in Two Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Sprott Asset Management's Charles Oliver not only makes some bold predictions in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, he backs them up. "I expect gold to be at $2,000 roughly two years from today. . .if I'm wrong I'll shave the hair off my head," Oliver says. As an unwavering believer in the yellow metal, Oliver is well positioned as co-manager of several Sprott investment funds, some of which hold bullion. One of those—Sprott's Gold and Precious Minerals Fund—climbed 114% in 2009, and claimed the 2010 Lipper Fund Award for Best Fund Over One Year in the precious metals category. Oliver shares some of the secrets of his success in this one-on-one interview.
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Saturday, June 05, 2010
Genuine Checkmark Economic Recovery Spotted - Guess Where? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
In response to Disputing the Alleged "Checkmark Recovery" reader Dave Bellamy informed me that I missed one.
Dave writes ...
Saturday, June 05, 2010
Gold Resilient While Equities Weak / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Amidst the carnage, gold is acting well -- like gold should act. Every day, sometimes multiple times each day, investors get blindsided by negative news that clobbers stocks, but not gold, which appears to be under accumulation during every bout of weakness.
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Saturday, June 05, 2010
What Will Happen to Gold Supply if Demand is Very High? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Investment demand for gold has never been so high and it is likely to rise still further. Normally when a commodity is in high demand supply is accelerated and holders of that commodity often take profits, thereby increasing supply. Economic history tells us the same, “rising prices and high demand should result in rising supply. When it comes to gold all rules have to be re-written. That’s because gold is only part commodity.
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Saturday, June 05, 2010
Gold Bullion Performance Against Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010
Gold for Defense. Gold Stocks for...?
Gold stocks stopped beating gold in 2005. They've lagged it since 2007...
IF GOLD'S GOING UP, then gold-miner stocks will rise further and faster. Right?