Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Gold Price Nearing Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
As bullish as I am, and have been on Gold since 2003, I am still rather impressed with the latest run-up to fresh highs. To be frank, I was expecting more downside beyond the recent pivot low at 1478, and was a bit surprised at how quickly the shiny metal took out its early May high.
Embracing the most bullish of Elliott Wave subdivisions from the primary 4-wave base at 681 in October of 2008, I am reading the current advance as an intermediate (3) wave along Gold’s long journey to toward completing its primary fifth. Once done, the current thrust to fresh highs may mark all-of (3).
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Fall in U.S. Real Interest Rates to Send Gold Over $1800 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
One of main determinants of gold prices in the medium to long term is US real interest rates. US real rates are the rate of interest that can be earned on US Government bonds, minus the expected rate of inflation. One can monitor US real rates by watching the yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and we watch them closely since they exhibit a negative relationship with gold.
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Tuesday, July 19, 2011
The Case for Gold Price Manipulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
As a geologist by training, it's no surprise that S&A Resource Report Editor Matt Badiali takes a data-driven approach to investing. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he shares calculations for trailing stops and strategies to take profits with prospect generators and points to the signs of gold price manipulation.
The Gold Report: Matt, in the June edition of S&A Resource Report, you wrote that resource stocks could see some pullback once quantitative easing (QE) was no longer injecting money into the system. QE2 ended last week. Is your thesis proving correct and what are your strategies to mitigate post-QE2 portfolio risk? Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 18, 2011
Gold and Silver Ready for Big-Time Run as Global Breakdown Begins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
An important shift in global markets is taking place and it bears introspection. Gold has broken to a new high while Silver has established a bottom. Precious metals stocks have rebounded significantly from support. At the same time, important global stock markets are in the early stage of a technical breakdown. We don’t foresee a repeat of 2007-2008, yet odds are good that global stock markets are beginning a cyclical bear market and unlike the last cycle this is coming at a time when precious metals are set to accelerate to the upside.
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Monday, July 18, 2011
Gold's Historic Rally Fuelled by Negative Interest Rates and Euro Disintegration / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
The Federal Reserve has just ended its $600-billion Treasury bond-buying program, known as QE-2, and already, traders are trying to figure what new tricks the Fed might have up its sleeve, in order counter a significant correction in the US-stock market in the second half of 2011. Including QE-1 and QE-2, the Fed pumped $2.35-trillion into the coffers of the Wall Street Oligarchs. Together with near-zero interest rates, and the printing of trillions of dollars the Fed fueled a speculative stampede into the commodity and stock markets, enabling traders to record bumper profits, while doing little to reduce the jobless rate.
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Monday, July 18, 2011
Gold Leaps above $1600, US and Eurozone Appear No Closer to Solving Debt Problems / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
THE SPOT MARKET gold price surged to $1602 per ounce Monday morning in London – a new intraday record – while stocks and commodities fell as politicians on both sides of the Atlantic appeared no closer to resolving their respective debt problems.
Silver prices also jumped, up to $40.38 per ounce – 2.8% higher from Friday's close.
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Monday, July 18, 2011
Gold Breaks Over $1600, Silver Over $40.30 on Risk of Systemic and Fiat Currency Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold is trading at $1,600.84/oz, €1,141.34/oz and £996.35/oz.
Gold rose to new record nominal highs in debt laden U.S. dollars, euros and pounds today due to the growing risk of a systemic financial collapse and fiat currency crisis.
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Monday, July 18, 2011
Gold is Not Money / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
So there you have it, after 6000 years of being money, gold is not money according the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke. Ron Paul asked him directly and the answer was ‘no’ as you can see on this five minute clip. This is a strange comment coming at a time when gold prices are making all time highs as we can see on chart below, where gold is sitting at $1590.10/oz.
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Monday, July 18, 2011
An Epic Energy Crunch, Global Crude Oil Demand Exceeds Production / Commodities / Crude Oil
The majority of the world’s developed economies are growing at a sluggish pace, yet the price of NYMEX crude is trading around US$100 per barrel. Interestingly, the price of Brent Crude (the price most nations pay) is even higher!
You may recall that during the last oil spike in 2008, world governments blamed those wily speculators. Therefore, in order to diminish speculation, the authorities banned leveraged ‘long’ oil exchange traded funds.
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Monday, July 18, 2011
Exploding Government Debt to Send Gold to $3000, Silver to $300 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
For those of you that have not read my writing I will save you the suspense and tell you here and now that I have been I gold and silver bug since I was 8 years old. I'm now 58. As far as I know I was the only kid I know that wanted either a St. Gauden's Gold Double Eagle or an 1885 Carson City PCGS MS 67 Morgan Dollar for my birthday. Back then it was a hobby. Now it is very serious business.
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Sunday, July 17, 2011
Gold Rally Negates Bearish Head and Shoulders Price Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold shot up during the week nullifying the previous (weird) head and shoulder pattern and moved into new highs. All speculative time periods are showing positive trends. What else is there to say, but I guess I’ll have to find something.
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Sunday, July 17, 2011
How Gold Performs During Deflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Despite the undue attention that has been paid to the chimera of inflation this year, it should be clear by now that deflation is the far greater structural problem. One clue that deflation, not inflation, is the main issue can be seen in the biggest form of savings and investment among the U.S. middle class, namely real estate.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 16, 2011
PALLADIUM May Again Become The Most Precious Metal / Commodities / Palladium
(In 2001 palladium reached $1,080/oz when gold was only $300/oz and platinum $715)
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Nevada’s Massive Mountain Of Molybdenum Makes Milestone / Commodities / Molybdenum
I introduced General Moly to my subscribers in May of 2009. At that time, the permitting process was not paramount, financing was the critical consideration as we were still emerging from the depths of the mining sector crash during the 2008 credit crisis. At the same time, China (FXI) was embarking on a search for potential mining acquisitions in the West. It was inevitable that a plum such as General Moly (GMO) would catch Beijing’s eyes.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Gold $1,600 in Reach / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold is once again hitting new highs, closing at $1,589/oz. on July 14. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Dr. Michael Berry, principal of discoveryinvesting.com and editor of Morning Notes, predicts $1,700 gold by year end and points to the juniors that could bask in the enhanced glow of all the metals, including copper and zinc.
The Gold Report: Dr. Berry, you are going to go before the Federal Reserve and meet with Congressional representatives on July 18. Could you give our readers a Coles Notes version of what you plan to say? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 15, 2011
China Gets Picky on Energy and Metal Resources Buying Prices / Commodities / Metals & Mining
Marin Katusa, Casey Research Energy Team writes: It turns out that China is not willing to pay whatever it has to for energy and metal resources.
Several resource deals have faltered in recent months, indicating an increasingly choosy Chinese perspective on energy and metal acquisitions. Add to that the growing concern that the global economy is once again stumbling and that commodity prices may be near a top, and you have a Chinese deal-making market that has gone from 60 to zero in no time.
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Friday, July 15, 2011
Bullish Copper Technicals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
Copper is growing increasingly popular among speculators, who are catapulting this unassuming base metal up into the rarified ranks of market-darling commodities. Neither precious like gold, nor immediately consumed like oil, copper’s price action is quite unique. And despite some risky headwinds remaining, its technicals are once again turning bullish today.
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Friday, July 15, 2011
Crucial Gold and Silver Showdown Opportunities / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Now that Gold has broken out to its all-time nominal high, we have a Showdown with Great Opportunities enabled by, but at the same time threatened by, Great Challenges. Consider:
“On June 30, QE2 ended with a whimper. The Fed’s second round of “quantitative easing” involved $600 billion created with a computer keystroke for the purchase of long-term government bonds. But the government never actually got the money, which went straight into the reserve accounts of banks, where it still sits today. Worse, it went into the reserve accounts of FOREIGN banks, on which the Federal Reserve is now paying 0.25% interest.
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Friday, July 15, 2011
Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Stop as General Stock Market Falls / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Gold surged to a new record on Wednesday, propelled by the possibility of a third round of quantitative easing in the US. Already rallying hard on the back of fiscal concerns in the Eurozone, gold jumped to within reach of $1,600 an ounce after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank could take further steps to prop up the US economy if needed (read that as QE3). Gold rose as much as 1.4 per cent on Wednesday to touch a new peak of $1,587.46 an ounce. That surpassed the previous peak of $1,575, reached on May 2. Looking back we see that gold rallied about $270 an ounce between Bernanke’s first mention in August of last year of a second round of quantitative easing – or “QE2” – and the end of the program in June.
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Friday, July 15, 2011
Global Gold Reserves Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
These are the offically reported reserves of the countries as of the end of June according to the World Gold Council.
It should be noted that these do not include any private holdings, which may be quite significant especially in certain countries like India and the Middle East.
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