Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
Economic Whiplash, Eurozone Debt Crisis Intolerable Choices, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Worse Than Headlines / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Do you feel as if you are suffering from some sort of economic whiplash? Between focusing on the European crisis (and it is a crisis), then looking at softening data in the US and political turmoil in Japan, not to mention the Middle East, you can be forgiven for feeling like someone just slammed into the back of your "economic recovery car." This week we look at today's US employment numbers, then at a troubling slowing of economic velocity, precisely at a time when it should be rising, and then consider a powerhouse, must-be-read-twice commentary from Martin Wolf on the European situation. Then I will weigh in with some of my own thoughts. Counterintuitively, the holders of certain European debt are being put at further risk by the bailout. (This letter may be a little shorter and take more work than others -which some of you think will improve it - as I am suffering from Caesar's Revenge here in Tuscany, although I am getting better!)
Saturday, June 04, 2011
Railway Revolution Builds China’s Consumer Culture / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Frequent readers of my “Frank Talk” blog and the weekly Investor Alert should be familiar with the story of China’s high speed rails. We’ve previously discussed how China is building the world’s largest network of high speed rails at an incredible speed.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
U.S. Employment Situation Deteriorates as Hiring Slows and Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.1% / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.1% in May vs. 9.0% in April. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +54,000 in May vs. +232,000 in April. Private sector jobs increased 83,000 after a gain of 251,000 in April.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 03, 2011
Fed Economic Stimulus Leads to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: John_Browne
Despite the full onslaught of Keynesian economic policies, including the injection of unheard of sums of printed money into the financial system, state sanctioned accounting tricks, negative real interest rates, massive deficit spending, and debasement of the U.S. dollar, the American economy is slipping back fast towards recession. This week's release of dismal employment figures, in which the entire economy could only muster 54,000 new jobs, confirms that fact.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 03, 2011
U.S. Unemployment Now at Great Depression Levels, Jobs Destruction is Permanent / Economics / Unemployment
By: Washingtons_Blog
Unemployment During the Great Depression Has Been Overstated and Current Unemployment Understated (We've Now Got Depression-Level Unemployment)
The commonly-accepted unemployment figures for the Great Depression are overstated.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 03, 2011
U.S. Labor Market Elevated Level of Initial Jobless Claims is Worrisome / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 422,000 during the week ended May 28. The underlying trend of initial jobless claims in the last two months has changed. The number of initial jobless claims has risen to 426,000 during May from 423,000 in April after an extended period of a decelerating trend (see Chart 2). These numbers suggest that labor market conditions remain worrisome. The reversal of initial jobless claims is consistent with the slowing trend visible in other recent economic reports.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 03, 2011
Inflation Expectations Reflect Slowing U.S. Economic Conditions / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Latest economic data (ISM manufacturing survey results for May, auto sales of May, factory production of April, consumer spending of April) underscore the shift in business momentum to a slower pace during the past two months. Consistent with this change, inflation expectations have declined.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Africa Riding the Red Dragon / Economics / Africa
By: Richard_Mills
"When I entered the business world, three-fourths of the world was closed - China, Russia, Vietnam, India, most of Africa... In 2010, the entire world is wide open, the developing world is growing twice as fast as the developed world and there's still arguably several billion people out there that will modernize and progress." - Caterpillar's CEO Doug Oberhelman
Thursday, June 02, 2011
U.S. Construction Spending Remains Lackluster / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Total construction outlays rose 0.4% in April, reflecting an increase in home improvement outlays (+7.6%) and expenditures of non-residential outlays (+0.5%). Outlays pertaining to new housing (-0.9%) fell in April.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2011
World Factory Sector Output Shifts to Lower Gear / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ISM manufacturing survey results of May show a decelerating trend in factory activity. The composite index declined to 6.9 points to 53.5 in May, which marks the third consecutive monthly drop. The sharp declines of indexes tracking new orders (-10.7 to 51.0) and production (- 9.8 to 54.0) are worrisome.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Economic Stimulus Wears Off / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Michael_Pento
The artificially engineered U.S. recovery is already starting to falter as a continuous procession of disappointing data continues to confirm the sad truth. Recent numbers on GDP, durable goods, housing, regional manufacturing, initial unemployment claims and leading economic indicators all indicate a sharp slowdown in GDP growth. Just today the ADP Employment report showed that the private sector added a paltry 38,000 jobs in May, down from 177,000 jobs in April, significantly below expectations, and the weakest number since September 2010.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Sputtering U.S. Economy, Look Out Below! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
The slowdown has begun. The economy has started to sputter and unemployment claims have tipped 400,000 for the last seven weeks. That means new investment is too weak to lower the jobless rate which is presently stuck at 9 percent. Manufacturing--which had been the one bright-spot in the recovery-- has also started to retreat with some areas in the country now contracting. Housing, of course, continues its downward trek putting more pressure on bank balance sheets and plunging more homeowners into negative equity.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Central Banks Choice Between Hyperinflation or Great Depression II / Economics / Central Banks
By: Gary_North
Western Europe has invented two institutions that have taken over the world: the university and the central bank. Today, both are under fire as never before. At the same time, both are in their respective diver's seats. The greater the criticism, the better they do for themselves.
We are finally seeing articles on the bubble in higher education. It isn't a bubble. Government money still flows in by the hundreds of billions a year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Falling U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Wipes Out Gains of Last Six Months / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 60.8 in May from 66.0 in the prior month. The 5.2-point decline wiped out a large part of the improvement of the last six months. The Present Situation (39.3 vs. 40.2) and Expectations (75.2 vs. 83.2) indexes both fell in May.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Why Innovation Needs Big Government / Economics / Government Intervention
By: Ian_Fletcher
Most people realize that the Federal budget deficit and the trade deficit are serious problems. Unfortunately, as I have argued previously, few people grasp the importance of another big deficit in our economy, without which it will be extremely hard to fix the first two: our innovation deficit. Simply put: despite appearances to the contrary, our economy is not innovative enough. And it’s costing us, big-time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Europe on the Edge of Abyss, U.S. Housing Market In the Abyss / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Mike_Shedlock
Robert Samuelson on Real Clear Politics says Europe at the Abyss
Read full article... Read full article...It has come to this. A year after rescuing Greece from default, Europe is staring into the abyss. The bailout has proved insufficient. Greece needs more money, and it can't borrow from private markets where it faces interest rates as high as 25 percent. There is no easy escape.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Fiat Currency Economic Death Spiral Has Been Triggered / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Gordon_T_Long
For nearly 30 years we have had two Global Strategies working in a symbiotic fashion that has created a virtuous economic growth spiral. Unfortunately, the economic underpinnings were flawed and as a consequence, the virtuous cycle has ended. It is now in the process of reversing and becoming a vicious downward economic spiral.
One of the strategies is the Asian Mercantile Strategy. The other is the US Dollar Reserve Currency Strategy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 28, 2011
UK Inflation Invisible to Government Politicians Such as Vince Cable / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
Where-oh-where can all this inflation – which doesn't exist – be coming from...?
THERE'S NONE so blind as those who claim they can see.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 26, 2011
U.S. Q1 2011 GDP Revision / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Tony_Pallotta
The first of two revisions for Q1 2011 Real GDP came in unchanged at 1.8%. Internally though this report is rather concerning.
In a previous post I discussed the increased probability of Q2 GDP contracting (found here) with inventory, government and or trade the most likely sources.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 26, 2011
The American Manufacturing Crisis and Why it Matters / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
Despite the denial chorus of the same politicians, financiers, and economists who told us prior to 2008 that our financial sector was fine, the American public is increasingly aware of the truth: American manufacturing is in a state of deep crisis. (And ,as I argued in a previous article, the recent small uptick in this sector doesn’t change that fact.)Read full article... Read full article...