Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, May 23, 2011
U.S. Economic Recovery Faces More Speed Bumps / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Of all the economic news last week, the fall in unemployment claims had the most positive impact. It's great to see them come down, and my work suggests that May is on track for a 275,000 gain in payrolls, which is well above current consensus.
Claims fell by 29,000 to 409,000 last week, the second improvement in a row after a couple of sad-sack weeks that were muddied by special events like a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and the layoffs resulting from the parts shortage in Japan.
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Monday, May 23, 2011
Is the U.S. Economic Growth Spurt Over? / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
As you know, we’ve been wondering about the exhaustion of the Industrial Revolution innovation…and the bankruptcy of the Social Welfare state as a result.
We take for granted that a healthy economy “grows.” Our governments depend on it to pay the bills. Our investments depend on it too; we buy investments that we hope will become more valuable as sales and profits grow along with the economy. But what if all of our assumptions about what is “normal” are wrong? What if the growth spurt we have known for the last 300 years was the exception, not the rule? And what if it were now coming to an end?
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Friday, May 20, 2011
QE End, Training Wheels Off, Crash Helmets On / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
Based on many pronouncements by economic policy makers, reams of articles by the top financial journalists and near continuous discussion on the financial news channels, it appears that the quantitative easing juggernaut that has steamed the high seas of macroeconomics for the last three years is finally pulling into port...supposedly for the last time. According to the dominant narrative, QEI and QEII helped stabilize the economy during the Great Recession and now the Federal Reserve is ready to take the training wheels off. If so, the economy may need a helmet because there is virtually no chance that it can avoid major contractions without central banking support.
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Friday, May 20, 2011
How a State Light-bulb Law Could Revive the American Factory / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
South Carolina is close to pulling off a dramatic end-run around the federal government.
If that state succeeds, the end result could have a serious impact on every U.S. manufacturing industry from cars to toilets.
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Thursday, May 19, 2011
Copper is Talking, Massive Infrastructure Projects to Boost Productivity Throughout the Economy / Economics / Infrastructure
By: Richard_Mills
Pure gold deposits are increasingly difficult to find.
“What really bothers me is that in the 1980s or 1990s, we saw three to five discoveries of 5 to 20 million ounces each, and upwards of 30 to 50 million ounces a year. That is what makes or breaks the industry. There are no discoveries of that magnitude now.” Pierre Lassonde, veteran gold analyst, co-founder/chairman of Franco Nevada Mining Corp., former president of Newmont Mining Corp.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
The Coming Great Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_J_Kosares
The table displayed immediately below is likely to surprise even our most-jaded readers. It shows the astronomical increase in cash prices for well-known food commodities over the past 12 months. With inarguable exactness, it contradicts the nearly constant prattle in the mainstream press that inflation is under control, or that it is peaking and likely to come under control sometime soon. Some items on the list have doubled -- even tripled -- in price over the past year. Others have risen at mere double-digit rates.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
U.S. Industrial Production Held Back Partly Related to Natural Disaster in Japan / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Industrial production held steady in April after a 0.7% in March. The 1.7% jump in utilities production and 0.8% increase in mining output offset the 0.4% decline in factory production. The 8.9% decline in auto output was the major reason for the flat headline. Excluding motor vehicle output, factory production rose 0.2% in April after a 0.3% gain in the prior month.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
U.S. Consumers Continue to Struggle as Inflation Accelerates / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
The accelerating U.S. inflation rate reached its fastest pace in two and a half years last month as consumers continue dealing with higher food and energy prices.
The consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 3.2% over the last 12 months, the biggest yearly jump since October 2008. That's up from a yearly jump of 2.7% in March and 2.1% in February. The CPI in April increased 0.4% from the previous month.
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011
U.S. Inflation Data: Actual vs. Fed’s Forecast / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
April inflation data point to an upward trend of both the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy (see Chart 1). The data suggest that in as much as the Fed views the recent gains in energy and other commodity prices as "transitory," the level of concern could change fast if the economy gathers steam. In the three-months ended April 2011, the core CPI has risen at an annual rate of 6.2%.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Bank of England's Phony Inflation Panic, Greece Bankrupt Again, Silver Crash 2011 / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The week saw the Merv (Britain's version of the Bernank) step forward and utter excuses as to why he now expects UK inflation to 'temporarily' soar above 5% this year on the official CPI measure (that significantly under reports real inflation as experienced by the general population). Mervyn King in a smoke and mirrors presentation all but blamed speculators for the surge in commodity prices with expectations that UK energy prices would surge by 15% later in the year.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Q2 Economic Contraction Highly Probable / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Tony_Pallotta
Recently I have been discussing the possibility that the US economy is in fact in a period of contraction. I want to revisit that call as I don't loosely throw out such a statement without backing it up with real data. Q1 2011 GDP was 1.77%, a 43% reduction in Q4 2010 GDP of 3.11%. Although Q1 GDP could be revised higher over the next two revisions it did highlight three sources of contraction.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
U.S. Consumer Price Index, Dichotomy Between Overall and Core Price Inflation Persists / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in April after a 0.5% increase in March. The CPI has posted gains between 0.4% and 0.5% for five consecutive months, putting the five month annualized change in the CPI at 5.8%. Under other circumstances the Fed would view the recent readings of overall inflation as severely inflationary and engage in suitable monetary policy actions to prevent further increases in prices. The present situation is different.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Why Inflation in China Could Lead to Another Global Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
Inflation in China is far more intractable than official headline statistics reveal.
That's potentially bad news for global growth and toppy stock and commodities markets.
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Friday, May 13, 2011
Why Economic Growth is Dead / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Martenson
John Rolls Submits: The end of the second round of quantitative easing (QE II) is going to be a complete disaster for the paper markets -- specifically commodities, stocks, and then finally bonds, in that order, with losses of 20% to 50% by the end of October. The only thing that will arrest the plunge will be QE III, although we should remain alert to the likelihood that it will be named something else in an attempt to obscure what it really is. Perhaps it will be known as the "Muni Asset Trust Term Liquidity Facility" or the "American Prime Purchase Program," but whatever it is called, it will involve hundreds of billions of thin-air dollars being printed and dumped into the financial system.
Friday, May 13, 2011
U.S. Retail Sales, Wholesale Price Inflation, Jobless Claims Economic Worries / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Economic data published this morning contain bothersome aspects. Retail sales recorded the smallest monthly increase since July 2010, initial jobless claims remain at an elevated level, and wholesale prices moved up, inclusive of core prices which exclude food and energy.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Macro Economic Theory Confusion on Inflation, Commodities, and the Fed / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Kel_Kelly
A recent discussion regarding commodity prices on CNBC consisted virtually of sentence-by-sentence errors with respect to macroeconomic theory. Most of the misstatements involve either accidentally or intentionally — I don't know which — attributing economic and financial market events to various incorrect or misleading cause-and-effect scenarios, when the real explanation is simply the government's creation of money and credit.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens on Higher Oil Prices In March / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $48.18 billion in March from $45.44 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports (+4.6%) and imports (+4.9%) of goods and services advanced in March. In real terms, exports of goods grew 4.8%, while that of imports moved up 3.7%. Effectively, the real trade deficit of goods widened only slightly (%50.1 billion vs. $49.3 billion in February. For the first quarter, the real trade deficit of goods stands at $49.9 billion compared with $45.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The first quarter trade deficit is slightly smaller than the assumption included in the advance estimate of first quarter GDP, implying a small upward revision. The net impact on GDP will be determined by retail sales and inventories numbers to be published on May 12.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
The Economy When Capital Is Nowhere in Sight / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jeffrey_A_Tucker
A Travel Channel episode of No Reservations, a cooking-focused show narrated by Anthony Bourdain, took viewers to Port-au-Prince, Haiti. I had heard that the show offered unique insight into the country and its troubles. I couldn't imagine how. But it turns out to be true. Through the lens of food, we can gain an insight into culture, and from culture to economy, and from economy to politics and finally to what's wrong in this country and what can be done about it.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Inflation Fears: Real or Hysteria? / Economics / Inflation
By: Ellen_Brown
Debate continues to rage between the inflationists who say the money supply is increasing, dangerously devaluing the currency, and the deflationists who say we need more money in the economy to stimulate productivity. The debate is not just an academic one, since the Fed’s monetary policy turns on it and so does Congressional budget policy.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Inflationary Reality Always Comes After “Recovery” / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Inflation watchers should be witnessing already the reality of the inflationary cycle; companies are cutting down their product sizes, cutting corners on packaging, and most importantly, raising prices. A few household names like Nike, McDonalds, and Walmart have indicated that it is inflation that is driving up their costs of doing business, and now they’re looking for ways to pass on the costs.
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