Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
The Inflation Mega-trend and the Illusion of Price Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to get to the heart of the matter to answer the question - Have we experienced Deflation and IF we have are we still in Deflation Now ?
This is the next in a series of articles as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario that is an important stepping stone towards the formulation of a inflation forecast for 2010 and beyond. I am to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Deflation or Inflation, Which Lurks Around the Corner? / Economics / Deflation
By: Jeff_Clark
In the short term, a catastrophic deflation is quite possible. But in the long term, extremely high levels of inflation are now inevitable. The situation is very serious. Gold is the best hedge against both of these things. The better part of your financial assets should be in gold, augmented by well-thought-out speculations. Doug Casey, November, 2009.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
UK CPI Inflation Soars as RPI Deflation Comes to an Abrupt End / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Inflation mega-trend scenario that I have been writing on during the past month is starting to manifest itself as UK Inflation data for November illustrates showing the Governments preferred CPI inflation surging higher to 1.9% up from 1.5% and RPI reversing October Deflation of -0.8% to now stand at Inflation of +0.3%.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Sovereign Government Debt Defaults Come Full Circle / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The continuation of the bank dominoes took 14 months, but it occurred. The initial destructive impact craters were carved in the United States and England. To be sure, major damage was done to assets in Spain and Greece and other smaller nations in the last year, but their banks had remained insulated. The discredit and death of the central bank franchise system showed first clear evidence in September 2008 on Wall Street. The unique mysterious aspect of banking systems is how they cannot be rebuilt once they turn insolvent. They rot in place, a process accelerated by rotten ethical values, euphemistically called moral hazard. To be sure, much so-called money flows through the dead rotten parts, but nothing becomes resuscitated except balance sheets. And besides, those balance sheets only look better due to accounting rules changes that deviate from mark to market (reality).
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Economic Contraction will Continue in 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Brian_Bloom
My wife and I watched Oprah interviewing President and Mrs. Obama for her Christmas Special. The closing message that President Obama tried to communicate was one of hope – that the worst is behind us and, with hard work and determination, America can rebuild.Whilst the sentiments are admirable and probably believable in terms of America’s ability to rebuild – and possibly even true – there are serious questions regarding whether the worst is behind us.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Further Misery for UK Savers as Inflation Erodes Value of Savings Pot / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyFacts
Savings rates are still annoyingly low, with the average no notice rate currently at 0.81%, not far above bank base rate.
The recent published inflation figures shows that the real return after basic tax and inflation on an average no notice savings account is at a worrying minus 1.25 per cent, the lowest since May this year.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Fundamental Economic Data for the Week Dec 14-18 / Economics / Global Economy
By: ForexPros
EU:
• Monday: France Current Account (Previous -3.7B, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Employment QoQ (Previous -0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -1.8%, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast -0.7%) & YoY (Previous -12.9%, Forecast -10.8%).
Monday, December 14, 2009
Economic Recovery Mission Not Accomplished / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
Although Barack Obama has refrained, at least for now, from delivering triumphant speeches in a naval flight suit, there is nevertheless a strong tone of accomplishment emanating from the President and his deputies. Over the weekend, top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers even pronounced that the recession is now over.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Stephen Roach Vs Mike Shedlock on Fed's Easy Money Exit Strategy / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Former Fed economist and current Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach Sees ‘Great Risk’ in Fed Exit Strategy.
Monday, December 14, 2009
U.S. Economy Forecast 2010, The Year of Severe Economic Contraction / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
Upbeat reports in the financial media, belie the effects of the ongoing credit contraction. Massive injections of central bank liquidity have prevented the collapse of financial markets, but have done nothing to ease the deleveraging of households or stimulate activity the broader economy.
Monday, December 14, 2009
U.S. Economy Looking Very Sick Indeed / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
No matter how the administration's friends and media lapdogs try to paint it the US economy is still in rotten shape. In fact, the situation is far worse than most people realise. Manufacturing surveys suggest a slow though steady recovery. I don't buy it, at least not yet. These surveys also report that the situation for unfilled orders is deteriorating, which means that orders for capital goods in the form of machinery is falling. Industrial production for October to October was down 7.1 per cent. Although it's true that industrial production from May to October is up by 2.5 per cent it is still below its 2002 level.
Monday, December 14, 2009
It’s “Money in Circulation” Stupid / Economics / Money Supply
By: Joseph_Toronto
During the 1991 recession (if you can call it that) Bill Clinton made a campaign issue of “It’s the economy stupid.” It’s true, it is all about the economy. But it’s also a little more fundamental than that. It’s something that people have known intuitively for centuries. In a good economy, there was always “plenty of money” and in hard times it was “money is scarce”. Things haven’t changed, except that now those responsible for money creation are intentionally clouding the picture with all kinds of economic jawboning (dutifully reported daily by the media) to create a paranoia of both hyperinflation and deflation.
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Sunday, December 13, 2009
Average Russian is 8 Times Poorer Than Average European / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
The latest research indicated that the size of the average European’s savings account is seven times greater than that of the average Russian. It would seem that the reasons are obvious – Russians are seven times poorer than residents of the European Union. However, it’s only a part of the picture. Sociologists say that 70% of Russians do not have bank deposits and 50% of them have no savings at all. Therefore, the average Russian is 8 times poorer than the average European.
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Saturday, December 12, 2009
Obama Calls for More Leverage and More Debt On Path Towards Financial Ruin / Economics / US Debt
By: Bob_Chapman
Congressional appropriators agreed Tuesday night to give civilian federal employees a 2 percent pay increase -- which includes a locality pay increase President Obama didn't want.
Government workers will get a 1.5 percent nationwide increase in base pay and a 0.5 percent average increase in locality pay. The final agreement goes against the wishes of Obama, who called for a flat 2 percent jump and no locality increase.
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Saturday, December 12, 2009
Bernanke's Faux Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Whitney
"Economic recovery" is a term that has no fixed meaning. But it's worth mulling-over to determine whether aggregate demand is strong enough to keep the economy from tipping back into recession. In normal times, the Fed slashes interest rates to increase the flow of capital to the markets and to consumers via lending at the banks. That's the traditional method of "jump starting" the economy. The Fed has never initiated policies which provide unlimited guarantees for underwater financial institutions. Nor has it ever poured more than a trillion dollars directly into the financial system by creating excess reserves at the banks and direct purchases of long-term assets. (Quantitative Easing) All of this is new.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
The Statistical Economic Recovery and Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
Thoughts on the Statistical RecoveryLies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics
The Problem of Seasonal Adjustments
The Job Creation Engine
A Double-Dip Recession?
Dad Gets a Lively Lesson
We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out this summer, it is going to be a recovery in the statistics and not in the things that count, such as income and employment. This week we look at the nascent recovery (which could be at 3% this quarter) and try to peer out into the future to see what it means. We look at how recoveries come about, and why I am concerned that we will see a double-dip recession. Plus, I learned some new tricks courtesy of my new granddaughter, to whom Tiffani gave birth this week1 There is a lot to cover, but it should be interesting.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Barack Obama Ensures a Long Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Benjamin_Weingarten
Political success, as reflected in the recent gubernatorial races appears ever-more staked on the state of the economy. Official unemployment recently measured 10 percent, though the more-honest gauge (U-6) shows the nation running unemployment at a Depression-like 17.2 percent.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Are We Heading for a Gigantic Economic Monetary Deflationary Collapse? / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Robert_Bradshaw
When a top French Bank warns the French people that a gigantic economic/monetary/deflationary collapse could be very close, thinking people must wake up and take notice. This happened on or about Nov 19th in an article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from the London Telegraph. I read this prediction with interest from the Society Generale Bank in France. But the importance of this assertion is not only because this bank is near the top in thinking in the European Union, it is most assuredly a leading Rothschild controlled bank with much insider knowledge of what is coming down the pike.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Auto and Gasoline Sales Help Boost November Retail Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: LiveCharts
Despite initial reports from many retailers that the start to the holiday season has been relatively sluggish, the Commerce Department reported Friday (December 11) morning that retail sales climbed by 1.3 per cent in November. This follows a 1.1 per cent boost in retail performance during October.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Debt and the Blowout Federal Deficit, Economic Review of 2009 / Economics / US Debt
By: Andy_Sutton
In an effort to get out ahead of the rush of year-end summaries, commentaries, and reviews, we’re going to try something a little bit different this year and leave 20 days of 2009 on the table. The themes discussed at the outset of 2009 were all longer-term in nature anyway, and it is unlikely that anything major will happen to unsettle those themes during the last few days of the year. Incidentally, a buffalo nickel goes to the first person to email in if I happen to be wrong on that last assertion. So without further delay..