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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Deflation Is A ***** / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe latest Thought's From The Frontline by John Mauldin is a gem. It is about the crisis in Spain through the eyes of Variant Perception.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Economic Recovery Underway But Double-Dip Recession Risk Remains / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Francois_Soto

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConsumers Are Not Saving Yet - Over the last months, we have seen articles discussing the dramatic surge of Personal Saving Rate as % of Disposable Income and how America shifted from consumer-driven to saving-driven. Most observers forgot to mention Personal Saving Rate Ex Transfer Payments As % of Disposable Income actually kept declining since May 2008 and this can be seen on the chart below. This means such frugal lifestyle is not happening yet although it might occur in a not so distant future once consumers decrease their Financial Obligations Ratio, a measure of debt.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Spain, The Financial Black Hole In Europe's Balance Sheet / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday's offering for this week's Outside the Box starts off with a quote from Titus Maccius Plautus: "I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors." Even 2200 years ago, it seems that problems of credit were an issue.

I talked last Friday about the US being faced with a number of bad choices. But it is not just the US. Today we look at a piece from my friends at Variant Perception based on London. They are a relatively new institutional research house. I have been reading their material for some time and have begun to look very much forward to it. They do some very good in-depth analysis. I asked then to shorten a piece they did on Spain and Spanish banks for this week's Outside the Box. Spain will soon be faced with a number of very uncomfortable choices, but for now they appear in denial.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Failure of U.S. Money Supply to Grow Points to Economic Stagnation and Monetization of Debt / Economics / Money Supply

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestors should be taking some clues from the thinking of American voters. Their view, as documented by the respected Rasmusen polling organization, is rejection of the growth killing policies of the Obama Regime. Per Rasmusen, a mere 46% of voters approve of Obama Regime while 53% disapprove. The vote is in on the economic prospects for the U.S. due to policies of the failing and fading Obama Regime, and it is in the negative column.

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Economics

Monday, August 31, 2009

Consumer Woes to Continue as Confidence Slumps and Incomes Stagnate / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Money_Morning

Jason Simpkins writes: With unemployment hovering at 9.4% consumers continued to show reluctance in July as incomes stagnated. Furthermore, with the jobless rate expected to exceed 10% later this year, consumer confidence fell in August, keeping hopes of a sustained economic recovery at bay.

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Economics

Monday, August 31, 2009

The Case for Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs Absolute Return Partners wrote in its July newsletter:

The most important investment decision you will have to make this year and possibly for years to come is whether to structure your portfolio for deflation or inflation.

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Economics

Monday, August 31, 2009

Fed Liquidity to Keep the Financial System from Collapsing / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBen Bernanke never should have been reappointed as Fed chairman. Obama made a big mistake. The main thing to remember about Bernanke is that, in the two years since the financial crisis began, he's made no effort to force the large banks and financial institutions to write-down their losses. Nor has he pushed for the regulations that are needed to restore confidence in the system. The credit system is still clogged because the banks are buried under $1.5 trillion in toxic assets and non performing loans which are defaulting at the fastest pace on record. At the same time, Bernanke has failed to push for reform of derivatives trading, off-balance sheet operations, securitization or capital requirements for financial institutions.

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Economics

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Mish on the Edge with Max Discussing Deflation and the State of the U.S. Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn August 23 I was On the Edge with Max Keiser in a pair of videos discussing deflation and the state of the US economy.

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Economics

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Fed is Accelerating the Monetization of Debt, High Inflation is on Its Way / Economics / Inflation

By: Global_Research

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBob Chapman writes: The public option for Obama insurance coverage has been described as just a sliver of the overall proposal. Universal coverage directly by government was not an essential element says Health & Human Services. Of course it was. The program is in retreat and the only way the Democrats can get passage of any kind is to re-craft a toothless passage and ram it through in a party line vote.

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Economics

Sunday, August 30, 2009

No Wage Growth; No Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA recent poll shows that most economists now believe that the recession, which began in December 2007, will end in the third quarter of 2009. There's been an uptick in manufacturing and consumer confidence, and the decline in housing prices appears to be flattening out. Unfortunately, the return to positive GDP will likely be short-lived. The current surge in production is mainly the result of President Obama's fiscal stimulus and the rebuilding of inventories that were slashed after Lehman Bros defaulted in September, 2008. These factors should boost GDP for two or perhaps three quarters before the economy lapses back into recession.

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Economics

Sunday, August 30, 2009

The U.S. Economic Recovery is a Tale of Two Economies / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow well corporations have fared in the recovery depends largely on two factors.

1) How much cash on hand they had and how conservative they were heading into the recession

2) How much Uncle Sam (taxpayers) bailed them out

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Economics

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Uncomfortable Choices in a Deflationary High Deficits Economic Environment / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn Uncomfortable Choice
What Were We Thinking?
Frugality is the New Normal
And Then We Face the Real Problem
The Teenagers Are in Control
Choose Wisely

We have arrived at this particular economic moment in time by the choices we have made, which now leave us with choices in our future that will be neither easy, convenient, nor comfortable. Sometimes there are just no good choices, only less-bad ones. In this week's letter we look at what some of those choices might be, and ponder their possible consequences. Are we headed for a double-dip recession? Read on.

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Economics

Friday, August 28, 2009

The China Growth Myth Debunked, What Happens When the Credit Bubble Pops? / Economics / China Economy

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleVirtually 95% of all the evidence of economic recovery has stemmed from China in one way or another. Whether it’s the rise in price of commodities (China stockpiling), the global economy (the “China” growth miracle will lead us into a recovery), or even retail numbers (China producers lowering prices in an effort to move inventory), China is linked in one way or another to the “green shoots” nonsense.

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Economics

Friday, August 28, 2009

Beware the Mass Media, A Pack of Lying Morons / Economics / Mainstream Media

By: LewRockwell

Jack D. Douglas writes: The Mass Media reports on almost all economic issues more complex than buying a hamburger are very misleading at all times and are catastrophically misleading in this Great Crisis in which almost everything is distorted in Rube Goldberg ways by the Fed, FDIC, and scores of other agencies and giveaway, subsidy programs.

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Economics

Friday, August 28, 2009

What a Changing U.S. Savings Ratio and Chinese Falling Export Rate Tell Us / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Hans_Wagner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat can we learn from the insight that the U.S. consumer is saving more and Chinese exports are falling? The chart below from Bloomberg has an interesting story to tell. The yellow line represents the falling growth rate of Chinese exports vs. last year. The white line shows the rising savings rate of the U.S. consumer.

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Economics

Friday, August 28, 2009

Transition From Financial Crisis to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Christopher_Laird

Now that we are just about 2 years into the world financial/credit crisis, it’s time to ask what is next in one or two years.  One is to ask will stagflation emerge in 2010 and after, which is highly gold bullish long term.

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Economics

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Jaguar Inflation, An Explanation of the Deflationary Consequences of Government Intervention / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter's FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook , part of Prechter's NEW Deflation Survival Guide.

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Economics

Thursday, August 27, 2009

The Process of Creative Distruction of Corporations / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleVan Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have figured out what few others have, that excessive debt and falling asset prices have conspired to render the best efforts of the Fed impotent.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Current Economic Crisis Still On Track to be Bigger than the Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDear reader,

Our friends over at Elliott Wave International (EWI) are offering Bob Prechter’s recent 10-page market letter, free. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Learn more.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Leading Economic Indicators Predict the Recession is Over / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleClaus Vogt writes: Last Thursday the Conference Board released the July reading of its Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Year-over-year it was up by 0.2 percent. This is the first reading in the plus column since 2007.

So … what does this clear improvement tell us? How important is it? Does it give us an all clear signal that a strong recovery is on its way?

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