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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Impact of the Credit Crunch on UK Borrowers Debt Mountain Going into 2008 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe credit crunch originally sparked by hedge funds in June going bellie up due to US subprime exposure, quickly spread to a freeze of the interbank money markets during July 07, and resulted in the first run on a UK bank for 150 years during September. The contagion has continued to spread with magnitude of the problem having grown from just $2 billions to now more than $1 trillion. With this inability to value debt packages leading to ever tighter lending requirements across the credit markets. This article evaluates the real impact of the credit crunch on the UK borrowers.

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Economics

Friday, November 09, 2007

Deteriorating Economic Conditions From Main Street to Wall Street / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecent reports of better than expected job growth and a 3.9% gain in 3rd quarter GDP have spawned much talk about how the resilience of the American consumer is enabling the country to weather the subprime storm.  In reality, the unfolding financial crisis on Wall Street is in fact a direct result of the deteriorating economic conditions on Main Street .

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Economics

Monday, November 05, 2007

How Long Can The US Economy Defy Economic Gravity? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Some readers (judging by their tone, I think they are Democrats) took issue with my view that there was still steam in the US economy and that the subprime fiasco would not sink it (It's not the housing market that threatens the US economy). I also pointed out more than once that readers should not be surprised if the Fed cuts rates. Well, the jury has passed its verdict: real gross domestic product came in at an annual rate of 3.9 per cent for the third quarter. This was on top of the 3.8 per cent growth rate for the second quarter. Taken at face value one would have to say that the US economy is accelerating.

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Economics

Monday, November 05, 2007

U.S. Economy: Some Cracks Showing / Economics / US Economy

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSpeculation continues about the U.S. economy. Is it going into a recession or not? There are numerous reports from analysts and economists on credible news outlets like Bloomberg and CNBC about the state of affairs of the American nation. All market pundits seem to provide good evidence in support of their opinions, but I have not seen or heard a commentary on one of the most reliable leading indicators of the economy; the stock market.

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Economics

Sunday, November 04, 2007

US Fed Ignoring the Real World Inflation Data - Bernanke Should Take a Hike! / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crooks writes: The slumping housing market and the ongoing credit crunch have been a major thorn-in-the-side for the U.S. economy for many months, and conditions are likely to get worse before they get better.

However, does the big picture for the rest of the economy really look as bad as analysts and economists have made it appear?

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Economics

Sunday, November 04, 2007

Only Central Banks Can Create Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Mario_Innecco

We think the way inflation is presently defined goes a long way to helping central banks and governments perpetuate the debasement of currencies via the over issuance thereof. Prior to the 1980's The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defined inflation as: “an abnormal increase in the volume of money and credit resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in the general price level”.

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Economics

Friday, November 02, 2007

America's Greatest Export - Inflation in Spades / Economics / Inflation

By: Greg_Silberman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOh the absurdity of it all!

The last round of Fed rate hikes began early 2004 and ended in the middle of 2006. One of the primary justifications for a number of mini-rate hikes was the ominous threat of an outbreak in price inflation.

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Economics

Thursday, November 01, 2007

US Manipulation of Inflation Economic Statistics to Produce Strong GDP Growth Figures / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday, as the dollar fell to new record lows and oil and gold prices surged to new highs, Wall Street remained fixated on wholly meaningless government data that managed to report the lowest inflation in the last half century. These bizarre numbers were integral in allowing the Commerce Department to report 3.9% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, which was heralded by the bulls as evidence that a resilient U.S. economy had shrugged off the problems in the housing and mortgage markets. However, the government's ability to make “economic growth” magically appear is based purely on statistical finesse.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The Deflationary Effect of Migrant Workers / Economics / Immigration

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This week the UK government came clean and stated that it has got its facts wrong on both the number of migrant workers and the number of jobs created. More than half of the jobs created by New Labour have gone to migrant workers, with the number of migrant workers now estimated at 1.5 million. In my previous article, I highlighted the key negatives of migration into the UK, in that the public sector is inefficient to such an extent that it cancels out the estimated extra tax revenue of £6 billions.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The Growth Recession and Early Stages of a Housing Depression / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week in Outside the Box, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Management undertake an assiduous analysis of the economy, specifically quantifying the underlying impact of the real estate market on GDP growth through the follow-on adverse effects on consumer spending.

As outlined in previous publications, the housing debacle has not by any stretch of the imagination reached bottom, having an estimated $800 billion of adjustable rate mortgages reset between October 2007, and December 2008. These resets Hoisington indicates are the home buyers who bought at the top of the 2006 housing market, many of whom paid zero down and received mortgage rates of 0%.

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Economics

Monday, October 29, 2007

The Economy and The Worker Value-added Fallacy / Economics / Corporate Earnings

By: Gerard_Jackson

Now that the Labor Party has the sniff of victory in its lungs, some of its most ‘brilliant economic thinkers' are already dreaming up schemes that will impose heavy costs on the Australian economy. One of these dirigiste schemes is based on the value-added fallacy. There are two assumptions behind their thinking: One is the belief that the state (politicians and union hacks) can impose high-value-added structures on the economy that will provide a buffer against commodity-driven booms. This policy will lead — so they think — to more value-added export-orientated production. The second assumption is the unfounded belief that value added always equals high-tech.

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Economics

Monday, October 29, 2007

US Economy: The Subprime Market, Depreciation and the Exchange Rate / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent economic commentary is misleading a great number of people. The problem is — as always — bad economics. We can all recall that it was not long ago when we were told by a horde of financial and economic advisers that the subprime market would sink the American economy. What this lot overlooked was the important fact that only about 14 per cent of mortgages are subprime. Moreover, less than 2 per cent of these are in trouble.

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Economics

Friday, October 26, 2007

US Administrations Economic Gang - Send in the Clowns / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Four leading members of the Bush administration's economic team, including Ed Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, Al Hubbard, director of the National Economic Council, and Jim Nussle, director of the Office of Management and Budget, convened on a CNBC panel earlier this week and confidently forecast that the economy would avoid a recession. As they uttered their platitudes, we learned that housing sales plunged again, with national inventories of unsold homes hitting a new record high, and that Merrill Lynch disclosed nearly $8 billion in losses. Set against this backdrop of deteriorating economic news, it would have been more honest, and perhaps more effective, if the Administration team came on stage in clown makeup and oversize shoes. 

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Economics

Friday, October 26, 2007

A Different Kind of US Recession - Nominal Vs Real Decline in GDP / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a recent interview with Britain's Telegraph newspaper, Jim Rogers, the world-renowned investor declared the United States to be in recession. He didn't stop there. He has taken the next step and rid himself of the downtrodden US Dollar in favor of Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. A bold move? A lone voice in a sea of complacency? Not so; Rogers is just the latest in a growing line of credible voices to abandon the US and its struggling currency.

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Economics

Friday, October 26, 2007

Market Barotrauma - Disconnect From the Reality of the Business Cycle / Economics / Inflation

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere has been a disconnect in logic which has been seriously bothering me in recent weeks. Everything in my training has taught me that ‘the market' ultimately exerts a discipline on speculative excess, and ‘the market', being the sum of all players, is more powerful than any one player or set of players. Conceptually, therefore, whilst the Central Banks might ‘manage' the markets, the very idea of their being able to eliminate the business cycle has always struck me as being a nonsense. The longer the contraction phase of a business cycle is postponed, the worse will be the excesses that build up, and the more painful will be the rectifying contraction phase.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

US Economy Gradually Sliding Into Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

This week's chart shows U.S. economy gradually sliding into recession. This indicator is the average year-to-year change of about twenty measures. Many are real measures, like tons or units, so some of false impressions created by incorrect price calculations are avoided. Only recently has the collapse of the housing sector been acknowledged as a serious negative on U.S. economy. Many have mistakenly believed Wall Street could “feed” the nation.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Economy Swamped by Confusion as Money Supply Goes Wild / Economics / Money Supply

By: Gerard_Jackson

What passes for economic commentary these days is enough to drive one to drink. Let's start with Mike Steketee, another of Rupert Murdoch's resident lefties. He tells us that Nicholas Gruen — an economist — “found that cutting taxes for low and middle-income earners generated the largest response in increased employment”. This is just another version of the consumption-drives-the-economy fallacy. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

US Economy in Meltdown? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

On Friday the 19 October the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted by over 360 points. This immediately sent alarm bells ringing throughout the financial community ? along with nightmares of October 1929 when the Dow Jones dropped from 400 to 145 in November. This dramatic fall in share prices was not confined to America. From March 1929 to June 1931 the prices of Dutch shares dived by 60 per cent; for Germany it was 61.7 per cent from April 1927 to June 1931, and French share prices dropped by 55.7 per cent from February to June 1931. (Wilhem Röpke, Crises & Cycles , William Hodge and Company Limited, 1936, p. 57 )

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Economics

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Historic and Current Hyperinflation From Across the Globe / Economics / Inflation

By: Mike_Hewitt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAngola (1991-1999)
Angola went through the worst inflation from 1991 to 1995. In early 1991, the highest denomination was 50,000 kwanzas . By 1994, it was 500,000 kwanzas . In the 1995 currency reform, 1 kwanza reajustado was exchanged for 1,000 kwanzas . The highest denomination in 1995 was 5,000,000 kwanzas reajustados . In the 1999 currency reform, 1 new kwanza was exchanged for 1,000,000 kwanzas reajustados . The overall impact of hyperinflation: 1 new kwanza = 1,000,000,000 pre-1991 kwanzas .

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Economics

Friday, October 19, 2007

US Inflation Understated in Official Statistics - Prices are the Cart, Money Supply is the Horse / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe sad truth is that despite the best efforts of monetary economists everywhere, fundamental misconceptions about inflation remain entrenched in government, business, and the media. 

In an exchange earlier this week on CNBC, a guest explained that rising oil prices can not cause inflation because prices for other goods must fall as spending is diverted to pay for more expensive oil. That explanation prompted host Becky Quick to ask: “If rising oil prices do not cause inflation, then what does?” Since that question was left unanswered on the air, I thought I would take the time to answer it here.

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