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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, October 14, 2007

US in a Slow Motion Recession But May Avoid a Technical Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this issue:
The GDP Equation
How Low Can You Go?
The Key Variable Problem
The Importance of Fiscal Policy
The Slow Motion Recession
New Orleans and More Birthdays

A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This week we look at how the GDP is actually calculated to give us an idea as to the potential for a recession. We re-visit my concepts of a Slow Motion Recession and a Muddle Through Economy. We briefly look at the sliding dollar and housing, and see how it all adds up. You'll need to put your thinking caps on, but it should be interesting.

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Economics

Thursday, October 11, 2007

US Economy Living in Perilous Times Due to the Financial Bubble / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Richard_C_Cook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S., as the only so-called superpower, exerts a decisive influence on the fate of the world. Today peace and stability are threatened by three giant problems whose outcome depends a great deal on U.S. decisions. These problems are linked to each other synergistically in ways that increase the overall danger.

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Economics

Monday, October 08, 2007

US Economy’s Bubble: Casting the Recession Runes / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThat the US economy is running into problems is becoming clearer by the day. It is equally clear that America’s economic commentariat is still wedded to the fallacy that consumption drives economies. Time after time I keep reading that consumer spending is more than 70 per cent of GDP which means that if consumer spending falls the economy will slide into recession. What matters, however, is total spending, of which business spending is the most important component. The problem here is that the commentariat has unthinkingly swallowed the fallacy that including spending between stages of production would be a case of double-counting.

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Economics

Saturday, October 06, 2007

The Prevent A US Recession At All costs Defense / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Undoubtedly, I am not alone in my amazement how time and time again, in the waning moments of the big game, defenses give up wins by using the 'prevent defense'. In football, it involves backing up your defense on its heels and allowing itself to be nickeled and dimed to death by any quarterback who can throw a spiral. The idea is not to give up the big play. Despite the best of intentions, however, the results are generally the same: a big loss.

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Economics

Saturday, October 06, 2007

US In a Slow Motion Recession Due to Housing Market Bubble Bust / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this issue:
Why 110,000 Jobs Is Not Enough
GDP Is Set to Be Lower
The Slow Motion Recession
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre
One (Cut) and Done?
Republicans for Protectionism?
A New Chair for an Old Back
Austin and The Ten Tenors

The market certainly seemed pleased with the new jobs number. The glass is more than half full - or is it? Fed Vice-chairman seemed to suggest that the economy was getting better and the Fed might not need to make any further rate cuts. Is it now "One (Cut) and Done?" This week we look at what employment growth tells us about the growth of the US economy, spend some more time looking at how a fall in home prices will affect consumer spending, and muse on whether the Fed is indeed done cutting. We look at the scariest headline I have read in the Wall Street Journal in years, and I tell you about a chair that has done wonders for my back. It's a lot to cover, so let's jump right in.

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Economics

Friday, October 05, 2007

Inflation and the Federal Reserve / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_C_Cook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNo term in the “dismal science” of economics is more misunderstood than “inflation.” The word means “rising prices,” but is used at different times by different people to describe totally different phenomena.

The most predominant type of inflation is natural and occurs as raw materials are used up and must be replenished. It's akin to the law of diminishing returns, or entropy, and is overcome by technological innovation. Another type of inflation is expressed through constantly changing conditions of supply and demand, including the fluctuating cost of labor. Yet another type results from the predatory pricing practices of monopolies such as the worldwide oil cartel which has jacked up the cost of petroleum to over $80 a barrel.

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Economics

Friday, October 05, 2007

The Big Picture - 2008 Economic Contraction to Hit US Economy Due to Dollar Stagflation / Economics / US Economy

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is an anomaly in the equity markets which seems not to be drawing enough attention.

This anomaly can be seen by comparing the following two monthly charts (courtesy Decisionpoint.com).

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Economics

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

US Economy Sliding towards Stagflation - Global Bond Vigilantes Hooked on Gold / Economics / US Economy

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNowadays, traders of all different stripes are betting on more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the months ahead. Since mid-July, the odds of a US economic recession have been mounting, led by sliding home prices and the first loss of US jobs in four years in August. Sales of new single-family homes fell 8.3% in August to a 795,000 annual sales pace, to stand 21.3% lower from a year ago, and the glut of unsold existing US homes has swelled to the highest in 18-years.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Greenspan's Dark Legacy Unmasked / Economics / US Economy

By: Stephen_Lendman


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter retiring as the Federal Reserve's second longest ever serving chairman, Alan Greenspan is now cashing in big late in life at age 81. He chaired the Fed's Board of Governors from the time he was appointed in August, 1987 to when he stepped down January 31, 2006 amidst a hail of ill-deserved praise for his stewardship during good and perilous times. USA Today noted "the onetime jazz band musician went out on a high note." The Wall Street Journal said "his economic legacy (rests on results) and seems secure." The Washington Post cited his "nearly mythical status."

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Economics

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Rising Inflation Expectations Amidst An Inflationary Storm :2008-2009 / Economics / Inflation

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe average person isn't concerned yet about inflation. They have witnessed and experienced rising costs in food, energy, healthcare and tuition while the government and media consistently proclaim inflation to be low and well contained. Do these people have an ounce of decency? The roots of their corrupt and deceitful behavior can be traced back to a fiat monetary system that operates on debt and inflation, which is a form of counterfeiting. Joe Sixpack knows all this isn't right. But he doesn't know the true cause of rising prices in everyday living expenses, nor does he believe things are unmanageable. At least not yet. To date the Fed has succeeded in obfuscating inflation to the public. They have kept inflation expectations low enough. Though once the public wises up, their confidence game is lost.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Return of Trade Tariff Wars / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Gerard_Jackson

Kevin Rudd is signalling that a Labor Government would introduce another tariff regime. Rudd’s threat basically rests on two arguments, whether he knows it or not: The main one being that tariffs are needed to protect Australian manufacturing before it disappears. Then there is the subsidiary argument that tariffs are needed to protect jobs and real incomes. It is now time to give some basic economic facts another airing:

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Economics

Monday, October 01, 2007

Unpredictable US Economy Ahead / Economics / US Economy

By: Regent_Markets

A new low for the US dollar, and a mixed bag of economic news, gave investors few clues as to what the FOMC might do next with the interest rate.

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Economics

Monday, October 01, 2007

The Seven Plus Year Super Cycle Recession In US Auto Sales Continues / Economics / US Auto's

By: Bob_Bronson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAuto sales have been in a continuous recession for the past seven years. They never fully recovered from the last recession, and thus never entered an expansion stage, and they have been declining sharply for the past 22 months since their Jul '05 peak (on a rolling 12-month cumulative basis). Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, September 29, 2007

A Weaker US Dollar is Good for the United States and its Trading Situation - Economic Myth Busters / Economics / US Dollar

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week seemed an appropriate time to take a break. The big Fed ‘surprise' announcement resulted in most columnists dedicating their weekly missives either towards approval or condemnation of the action. Frankly, I am tired of the Fed, tired of the media spin on lower interest rates and the weaker dollar. It is the latter which compels me to pen this second volume of ‘Myth Busters'.

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Economics

Friday, September 28, 2007

Stagflation Revisited - Economic Contraction and High Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrently, Wall Street is divided into two camps: those who feel the Fed should fight recession, and those who feel it should fight inflation. The former feel that a recession can only be avoided if the Fed rescues the economy from the imploding housing market.  To these analysts, inflation is not a problem as it will be contained by slower growth. The other camp maintains that the housing slowdown is not significant enough to derail the otherwise healthy U.S. economy, and should therefore not distract the Fed from its primary mission of fighting inflation.  As usual on Wall Street, both camps have it wrong.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

US Housing Crash Deepens As the US Drifts Towards Stagflation / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Shiller House Price Index which reflects the housing market of America's ten largest cities fell by an annualized 4.5%, which greatly increases the probability of a US recession sparked by the deepening housing bear market that has already made itself felt in the form of the Subprime mortgage sparked credit crunch. As an adjunct to falling house prices, property sales also continue to tumble with the National Association of Realtors reporting sales of family homes falling by 4.3% in August alone to the lowest annualized rate since August 2002.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

C.H. Douglas: Founder of Modern Monetary Reform Movement / Economics / Money Supply

By: Richard_C_Cook

C.H. Douglas (1879-1952), a Scottish-born engineer, who worked for a number of American and British companies in the early years of the twentieth century, was the founder of the modern monetary reform movement. My own interest in monetary reform dates from discovering Douglas's ideas through a reprint of A.R. Orage's articles about them in Orage's publication The New Age dating from the 1920s.

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Economics

Monday, September 24, 2007

Central Banks Playing The Paper Game Bring the World Close to Hyper Inflation / Economics / Money Supply

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleApparently we have arrived – arrived at the point where any and all problems encountered must now be papered over – and we've gone global in this regard. You might want to listen to Jim Sinclair's talk on why the derivatives problem will necessarily lead us into hyperinflation. I'm not sure I agree with all his assertions, however the primary message is undeniable, and the market action is backing such claims, so they must be taken seriously. In this regard, let's take a quick look at money supply now to ensure our thinking is on the right track. Wouldn't you know it, in addition to monetization efforts taking off (growing at a 14% annualized rate), which of course we already knew about, growth rates in visible measures including both Money At Zero Maturity (MZM) and M2 are also going vertical, which gold is correctly responding to then. Here, these are not quite what would be considered hyperinflationary levels, but they are damn close --- close enough to talk about mild hyperinflation.

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Economics

Monday, September 24, 2007

Defending Tax Cuts Against Leftist Journalists / Economics / Taxes

By: Gerard_Jackson

Jonathan Chait, a senior editor with The New Republic , has written an unintentionally funny book called The Big Con: The True Story of How Washington Got Hoodwinked and Hijacked by Crackpot Economics , part of which was published in the TNA. ( How economic crackpots devoured American politics. Feast of the Wingnuts ) At or near the top of his pet hatreds is supply-side economics (a “crank doctrine”) and the Laffer curve. One thing became immediately clear: Chait is the last person who should be calling anyone an economic crackpot.

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Economics

Saturday, September 22, 2007

House Prices to Drop by 50%, US Still Headed for A Recession Despite Fed Rate Cut / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this issue:
A Sea Change at the Fed
Transmission Problems
A 50% Drop in Housing Prices
Wildness Lies in Wait
I Still Think Recession
It's Good to Be Home

The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since Will Shakespeare used it in The Tempest. I think this week we witnessed a true sea change in central bank policy, on both sides of the Atlantic. The stock market rejoiced over a 50 basis point cut from the Fed, assuming that it will stimulate growth and avoid anything more than a slowdown. In this week's letter, we ponder several questions. Why did the Fed decide to cut now when the rhetoric of just a few weeks ago was that of inflation fighting? What do they see? Are more rate cuts coming? Will they make any difference? And who is Frederic (Rick) Mishkin and why is he maybe the most important Fed governor you haven't heard of? There's a lot of ground to cover, and it should make for an interesting letter.

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