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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, May 19, 2008

Getting Real with GDP and Government Inflation Adjustments / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the release of last week's Consumer Price inflation numbers, the debate over the accuracy of the government's reported Consumer Price Index data was once again front and center. The official numbers showed that the overall rate of consumer inflation rose .2% while the over-hyped core rate rose just a paltry .1%.

However, these incredible April numbers were the result of a seasonal adjustment that removed much of the increase in gasoline prices. Unbelievably, the report claimed that consumer's energy costs were unchanged while the actual price of crude oil rose about 12.5% and gas prices rose 11% during the same period in question—that's some adjustment!

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Economics

Monday, May 19, 2008

Inflation and Interest Rates at Forefront of this Weeks Economic Data / Economics / US Interest Rates

By: William_Patalon_III

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou can bet there will be a lot of discussion about interest rates this week, thanks to the release of the producer price index (PPI) report tomorrow (Tuesday) and the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday.

The PPI report will undoubtedly rekindle the inflation-versus-recession debate (with more than a few comments about stagflation thrown in for good measure).

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Economics

Monday, May 19, 2008

Is the Australian Economy Heading for Recession? / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

The situation could become very nasty for the Australian economy. For years I have been warning that the Reserve Bank's reckless monetary policy would eventually end in tears. Since March 1996 bank deposits have risen by more that 224 per cent and M1 by 200 per cent. Regardless of views to the contrary, Australia cannot continue to escape the consequences of the Reserve's delinquency. Glenn Stevens " the Reserve's governor " recently made it clear that he wants to slow aggregate demand, reducing it to a rate that is "significantly slower than it was in 2007".

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

The Fed at Interest Rate Crossroads Between Inflation and Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRetail Sales Take a Dive
  • Accounting for Inflation
  • The Fed at the Crossroads
  • Sell in May and Go Away

Is the economy poised for a recovery, as the stock market seems to expect? Or are we in for another few more quarters of recession and/or slow growth? In this week's letter we take a look at consumer spending, inflation, and other data to see if we can find a clue or two to give us an idea of the direction of the economy. There is a lot of data, so let's jump right in.

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Unemployment Rate: What Is The Real Story? / Economics / US Economy

By: Ronald_R_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you have been reading my essays, you know I firmly believe the United States Department of Labor (DOL), Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) understates the rate of inflation (see: CPI: Sophisticated Economic Theory, Terrible Ethics). You also know that a low Rate Of Inflation means that the Department of Commerce (DOC), Bureau Of Economic Analysis (BEA) overstates “Real” Gross Domestic product (see: “American GDP: Can We Trust The BEA Data?” and: “Yes Virginia. This Is A Recession.”).

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Offical Fairytale Inflation Statistics / Economics / Inflation

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSomeone ought to consider changing the calendar. Maybe adding a few extra days so that next month the shock of double-digit annualized increases in import prices can wear off before we're told there is actually no consumer price inflation. The mainstream financial press quickly leapt onto the bandwagon with headlines such as “Inflation remains tame”, “Consumer prices stable” or the most ridiculous, “High Gas prices aren't affecting consumers”. I couldn't help but wonder what planet these folks are living on. It certainly isn't this one.

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

China's Strong Currency Solution to Consumer Spending and Inflation / Economics / China Currency Yuan

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs China grapples with the consequences of its devastating earthquake, it has also begun to finally confront the destabilizing forces bubbling up beneath its economic landscape.  This week, several key Chinese officials, typically not known for their candor, conspicuously noted the need to both stimulate domestic consumer spending and bring down roaring inflation.  While at first blush these two goals might appear mutually exclusive, China's leaders do have a magic bullet that can hit both targets at once.

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Devalue US Debt Through Inflation? Three Lessons from History / Economics / US Debt

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Might the scam work? Can the United States really settle its debt with devalued dollars, free of all historical fall-out...?"

"WE CAN PAY ANYBODY by running a printing press," said Thomas Gale Moore, one of Ronald Reagan's economic advisors, when the United States became a net debtor to its foreign investors in 1986.

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

California Leads Way For the US Consumer Bust / Economics / Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

The International Herald Tribune reports Californians leading the way to consumer bust .

As it did when the housing bubble began to burst, California is leading the way in the next leg: a consumer bust.

Squeezed by rising unemployment, inflation in food and energy costs and plunging home values, Californians are cutting back on spending. Besides causing woes for state and local government, the cutback is giving California's economy another knock and makes further job losses, home repossessions and banking problems more likely.

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Economics

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Rampant Money Supply Growth and Inflation / Economics / Money Supply

By: Zeal_LLC

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDue to all kinds of prices rising to levels that would have seemed inconceivable only a few years ago, inflation concerns are mushrooming today. And if there is anyone still not worried about inflation yet, they soon will be. Rising food and energy costs really affect the daily lives of nearly everyone on the planet.

But inflation is woefully misunderstood, even among financially-sophisticated folks who should know better. I've heard Chairmen of the Federal Reserve, elite Wall Street analysts, and countless news-media personalities claim rising prices are inflation . This common misperception is flat-out wrong. Rising prices alone are not necessarily inflation. Inflation is purely and exclusively a monetary phenomenon.

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Economics

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Inflation and the Fed Interest Rate Policy to Continue to Drive the Dollar Lower / Economics / Inflation

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe interesting and generally questionable conclusions in the April consumer price report provided a false sense of comfort in global financial markets that we believe will be temporary. The finding that the cost of domestic gasoline fell -2.0% month over month during a time when prices at the pump soared well above $4.0 per gallon in many areas was behind the modest official increase in the cost of living for the month. However, savvy market participants that follow the inflation data closely understand that the seasonal adjustments often tend to overshoot the true nature of the data and are prone to monthly revisions. We expect that the data in the coming months will be revised to reflect the reality of what is occurring in the price environment.

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Economics

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Government Inflation Data Does Not Match Reality / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn an age where governments of every political stripe distort economic data to promote their own self-interests, it's hardly surprising that they present inflation statistics that are wildly at odds with the reality faced by consumers and businesses, and regarded with utter disbelief. In the latest US government report on inflation for instance, there was a glaring “seasonal adjustment,” for energy prices that cast great doubt as to the accuracy of the findings.

US Labor Dept apparatchniks said consumer prices rose a smaller than expected 0.2% in April, tamed by energy prices, which were unchanged last month. Utilizing an obscure “seasonal adjustment,” Labor figured that gasoline prices actually fell 2% in April, which doesn't reflect the reality of what consumers were paying at the pump. Furthermore, the IMF's global food price index rose 43% over the last 12-months, but the US consumer price index for food is only 5.1% higher.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Japan Lost Decade Gives Way to th New Asian Reality / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

KYOTO, JAPAN - On one of my first mornings at our home here, my family and I headed for the Fushimi Inari Taisha shrine. Built in the 8th century by the powerful Hata family, the shrine is best known for the four consecutive kilometers of orange Torii gates covering the mountain on which it was built.

My wife's family has been coming here for centuries, making it a familiar and comfortable place that we enjoy very much.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The “BRICs” (and Mortar) of the New Global Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: John_Browne

In the early days of the American republic, fortune seekers were urged to “Go west young man!” Unfortunately, with the American economy now clearly showing its fragility, the rallying cry for today could be, “Go abroad!”

In the past quarter century, the center of wealth creation has steadily moved away  from the United States and towards new foreign competitors, especially the so-called “BRIC” countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, where economic growth rates have greatly eclipsed the U.S.  In recent years, this economic might has translated into much higher returns on their respective stock markets.  These movements are creating a wave of real wealth that wise American investors cannot afford to miss.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

UK Flawed Inflation Measure Explodes Higher, 3% CPI, 4.2% RPI / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) leapt higher to 3% in April from 2.5% in March, nearly hitting the Bank of England's letter writing trigger level of 3.1%. This confirms the Market Oracle expectations for a surge in UK inflation as not only the UK but all of the worlds major governments are engaged in the process of rampant money supply growth that is feeding through in higher inflation as too much cash is chasing too few goods. This is most visible in the commodities markets where strong price fundamentals coupled with the Bank of England's money supply printing presses running at full stream as evidenced by the £100 billion of new debt loaned to the banking sector in recent months.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

US Heading for Double-Digit Inflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Nearly all the pieces are now in place for inflation to strike with increasing speed and fury, catching Wall Street by surprise, throwing government policy into turmoil and, at the same time, opening up broad opportunities for investors.

I know. I've seen this movie once before. And the script will forever be ingrained in my mind.

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Economics

Monday, May 12, 2008

US Recession 2000 Can tell us a lot about today's Economy / Economics / Recession

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSome readers have been asking how "Austrian economic analysis held up during the last recession". Brilliantly, is the answer. It successfully described the emergence of the American recession and the pattern of rising unemployment and spending neatly fitted the Austrian explanation for the boom-bust cycle. Austrianism claimed that the contraction started in the higher stages of production and then worked its way down the production structure. Figures from the NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Management) in the middle 2000 gave considerable support to this view.

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Economics

Monday, May 12, 2008

Inflation Fear / Economics / Inflation

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith all the hand wringing about consumer confidence falling to 25+ year lows, it becomes much easier to understand IF we make the assumption that we are in a recession. Others worry about the self-fulfilling prophesy – if we believe we are in a recession, it will be so. However much of what is happening today was planted over a year ago. This too is the reason for why all the rate cuts made by the Fed have had little impact upon investors and the economy. However, the cuts will eventually have an impact – but that is not likely until later in the year. A complicating factor in today's economy is the lack of lending “interest” by banking institutions.

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Economics

Friday, May 09, 2008

Credit Card Debt Ticking Time Bomb / Economics / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor those holding out hope that the American economy can miraculously avoid a long and deep recession consumer credit is often viewed as the wonder drug that can cure all manner of economic ills. As such, this week's report showing $15 billion growth in consumer credit was widely heralded as proof of America's economic strength and resilience.  However, we are now suffering the after effects of too much debt, and our salvation cannot be found in more of the same.  

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Economics

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

The Bernanke Monetary Policy Conundrum Heading for a Crash / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Mick_Phoenix

The Bernanke Monetary Policy Conundrum Heading for a Crash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the US Federal Reserve cutting its Fed Fund Rate to 2%, presumably to aid the cost of borrowing and allow an expansion of lending that will lift the US economy from the doldrums you would expect to see an expansion of bank business. Not so according to the latest Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey which shows that banks are now actively avoiding the expansion of credit and it can be shown are deliberately causing a credit contraction.

This has profound meaning for the US and the wider global economy.

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