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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Australian Economy Heading Into Stormy Seas / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

The problem with Terry McCrann's economic opinions is not that they are terrible but that they are largely shared by the rest of our economic commentariat. For instance, McCrann cheerfully reports that over the year to October credit for business rapidly expanded. Now he did temper his enthusiasm with the observation that the trade deficit jumped from $1 billion in July to $1.8 billion in August before jumping to $3 billion in October. As he put it: "Import volumes are soaring, thanks to the high Aussie dollar."

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Economics

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

US CPI Inflation Statistics Manipulation and Deception? / Economics / Inflation

By: Ronald_R_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCPI: Sophisticated Economic Theory, Terrible Ethics Is Institutional Deception Embedded In Public Policy?

Introduction
In late November, 2007, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the United States had achieved a third quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gain of 4.9 percent. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which (theoretically) measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

UK November Inflation Drifts Higher - CPI 2.1%, RPI 4.3% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Figures for November show that inflation remained steady in terms of the CPI at 2.1%, whilst the more widely recognised RPI measure rose to 4.3% from 4.2% last month. The ONS sited rising food prices offset by falling gas and electricity prices.The movements are inline with the Market Oracle forecast for inflation to drift higher into a January 2008 peak.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

US Inflation Soars - Largest Rise in Producer Prices Since 1973! / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Suddenly and without warning, price inflation — long ignored and forever understated — has burst onto the American scene with the force of a cat-5 hurricane.

The November jump in the U.S. Producer Price Index has exceeded the largest single-month rises of the Bush 2000s ... the Clinton '90s ... the Reagan '80s ... and even the Carter '70s. It's the worst bout of wholesale price inflation since the aftermath of the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

"Reckless" Lending by Central Banks Risks US Recession / Economics / Recession

By: Jas_Jain

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Wednesday, December 12, 2007, leading Central Banks surprised the markets by promising to “rain money” on American and European banks. After years of Fed facilitating the pushing of debt on households by private financial institutions, including turning blind-eye to obvious abuses in the mortgage market, it suddenly is pushing debt on banks (ready money, or reserves, in exchange for questionable collateral) with the hope that they would continue lending to households. Would it work? Hell no.

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Economics

Monday, December 17, 2007

America's Currency Problems are due to Bad Economics / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBernanke has now cut rates three time in the last three months. Given Bernanke's Keynesian instincts it was always on the cards that he would go for cuts. The real question is how far will he go. Some commentators are urging him to cut rates further. The origin of this dangerous advice comes from the inverted treasury yield curve, with short term rates now at 4.25 per cent as against 4 per cent for long term rates. Now what these people are really saying is that Bernanke should force rates down below 4 per cent.

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Economics

Monday, December 17, 2007

US Fed Inflationary Money Printing Intervention Does More Harm than Good / Economics / Money Supply

By: Michael_Pento

Crying All the Way to the Bank - The Fed has angered many and pleased few in its ongoing effort to unclog the credit markets. They have lowered the Fed Funds rate a total of 100bps to 4.25% in the last three meetings and have also taken the Discount rate down to 4.75%. Most market pundits clamor for the Fed to ease more aggressively in an attempt to bolster flagging market returns. Meantime, an increasingly rare strategist argues for a stable currency and low inflation. In light of the recent actions by our Central Bank, I thought it important to lay out the reasons why it would be better for our economy if the Fed allowed the free market to work.

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Economics

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Sharp Rise in US CPI Inflation as Energy Prices Surged during November / Economics / Inflation

By: Tim_Iacono

The Labor Department reported sharply higher inflation in November as consumer prices rose 0.8 percent, the steepest increase in 26 months. From year-ago levels, inflation was a full 4.3 percent higher, the worst year-over-year reading since Hurricane Katrina.

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Economics

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Academics at the Fed Have No Real Money Markets Experience - US In Stagflation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

In this issue:

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThings That Go Bump in the Night
  • Foolish Investor of the Year?Really?
  • Breaking the Buck at Bank of America
  • Inflation Rears it Ugly Head
  • Academics at the Fed
  • 1% Growth plus 4.3% Inflation = Stagflation
  • London, Switzerland, and Barcelona

From ghoulies and ghosties, And long-leggedy beasties, And things that go bump in the night, Good Lord, deliver us!
-Traditional Scottish Prayer

It's been a long time since we have looked in my worry closet, but there are definitely bumping sounds coming from behind the door. While largely over-looked, Bank of America closed down an "enhanced cash" fund and did the unthinkable and broke the buck. But the real story is even worse. I make the suggestion that you look at your cash funds and see what is in its portfolio. You may want to redeem ahead of the crowd.

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Economics

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Why US Interest Rate Cuts if GDP is Growing by 5%? / Economics / US Interest Rates

By: Andy_Sutton

Overall, the Federal Reserve must be given decent marks for keeping up appearances in the wake of the onset of the largest credit crisis in US history. For the situation is now ubiquitous, wreaking havoc in virtually every market. True to form, the Fed has continued to modify its statements, perceptions all in an attempt to manage the public's confidence in the fact that yes, they are still in control of the economy. There have been, however, an increasing number of discrepancies and important issues emerging over the past several weeks and some startling but expected developments.

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Economics

Saturday, December 08, 2007

Beating the Credit Cycle - The Battle Between Debt & Recession / Economics / US Debt

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...The Fed & the White House will do whatever it takes. But will that be enough to defeat recession for ever and ever...?"

SO THERE IS TO BE no let up or truce in the war between debt and recession. The cannon-fodder of consumer credit – the battle-weary consumers themselves – must push ahead with the Christmas offensive. The United States , standing shoulder to shoulder with its partners in Britain , will stay in the trenches until the job is completed.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2007

Inevitable Demise of the Debt Based US Dollar / Economics / US Dollar

By: The_Big_Fisherman

From Fear to Horror - With the bi-polar behavior of the financial markets these past few months, it is sometimes best to remember back to when the unfolding of current events was seen only by the heretics. It is at this point in time where they had the least biased view of the history now being made. These mavens were few, and the ramifications of their insight were but distant theory. And perhaps only they properly recognize the extent of the horror now confronting those trapped inside the nanny-state bubble. Cooing pundits and those that soften the hard edges are not to be trusted.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

US Consumer Confidence Heads South Signaling Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the second installment of our special two day Outside the Box letter, we have good friend Greg Weldon's giving us his thoughts in his regular "Weldon's Money Monitor." Consumer expenditures account for approximately 2/3rds of U.S. GDP. A precursor to any underlying changes in consumer expenditures is consumer sentiment. Greg explains to us the state of the American consumer and how current federal and institutional initiatives will not help thwart the looming recession. You can read his work at www.weldononline.com .

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Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Unbroken , Australia''s Voters “Fix” Her Anyway By Electing Kevin Rudd / Economics / Austrailia

By: Chip_Hanlon

Political challengers, you just saw a great example of how to run against an incumbent when things in your country are perfect, a seemingly impossible task: convince voters there is essentially no difference between your ideas and those of the incumbent. This strategy was just worked to perfection in Australia , where a week ago the liberal Labour Party's Kevin Rudd was elected as the country's new prime minister, unseating the long-ruling conservative, John Howard.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Importance of the Gold Standard - US Economy: Deficits, Foreign Debt and Monetary Policy / Economics / Money Supply

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt seems that it was only yesterday that economic commentators were almost hysterical over the US economy's trade deficit. Added to that was the view that the country's growing foreign debt would bring the economy down. Now that the deficit is shrinking fewer people are drawing attention to it, though they still harp on about the foreign debt

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Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Is the Fed Too Late to Head Off a US Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the ongoing weakness of many of the key leading indicators spurred on by the subprime mortgage debacle, has the U.S. already started to slip into a recession? We know the housing and banking sectors remain in a free fall with no apparent evidence of a bottom and that consumer confidence has dramatically declined in recent months. But is that the signal of the start? And what is the definition of a recession?

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Economics

Sunday, December 02, 2007

The Grand Sale of American Assets Such as 5% of Citicorp to Abdu Dhabi / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Turn on the evening news in most cities recently and you will see images of rows of homes, many for sale, many with foreclosure signs in the front yards. On weekends the tables come out and are strategically placed in the driveway heavily laden with the possessions of the soon-to-be-prior occupants of the home. These are selling off anything they can muster to scrape together rent for the next roof over their heads, the next car payment, or the next VISA bill. Most observers look at this and have at least a pang of pity or perhaps take a moment to be thankful for their good fortune.

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Economics

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Are We Heading for Hyperinflation or Deflation? - At Philosophical Crossroads / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor some unfathomable reason, the human mind tends to think in terms of extremes. For example: “Death or Glory”, “Success or Failure”, “Accelerating growth or Collapse”.

Thus, the questions being asked in today's financial world seem to be revolving around whether we are facing “hyperinflation or depression”. All of which begs the questions: Why does it have to be at one or the other extreme? Why can't there be something in between? Alternatively, why can't there be a paradigm shift which renders the very question irrelevant?

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Economics

Friday, November 30, 2007

The Era of Credit Driven Consumer Spending Comes to an End / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

In an article this week that examined the troubles brewing in Citigroup's mortgage business, the Wall Street Journal focused on Natalie Brandon, a 51 year old married woman from Granada Hills, CA, who is currently unable to make the payments on her $625,000 adjustable rate home loan from Citigroup, despite the fact that the rate will not even reset higher until June of next year. Amazingly, the Journal reported that Mrs. Brandon bought the house in 1985 for just $105,000, but had chosen to refinance five times over the past seven years, borrowing more than $500,000 and spending every single penny. While this may be an extreme example of American profligacy, it is by no means unique. Unfortunately this type of behavior typifies everything that is wrong with the modern American economy.

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Economics

Thursday, November 29, 2007

US Fed Behind the Economic and Housing Curve / Economics / US Economy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Federal Reserve is behind the curve. Great consequences have resulted and are likely to continue to result. Many words can be used to describe this group. What come to mind are inept, compromised, corrupted, distracted, ill-trained, but also clueless, deceptive, myopic, overly cautious, and off the market in their focus. When they remain transfixed on economic growth versus price inflation, they are stuck in the past, in a world that no longer exists. The corrupt spew of fraudulent mortgage bonds disseminated throughout the investment community has both crippled the banking system from profound distrust, and inhibited the USEconomy from credit supply fraught with obstacles. With their irresponsibly slow reaction to significant threats to the entire economic and financial system, the hapless USFed has put several things at grave risk. Since mid-September, the USFed has cut the official rate twice by a total of 75 basis points (0.75%), and reduced the discount rate.

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