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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Inflation Surges to 3.8% as Bank of England Loses Control of Monetary Policy / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe official rate of UK inflation as measured by the CPI index surged higher for June to 3.8% from 3.3% which is inline with Market Oracle expectations that is expected to see inflation continue trending higher to well above 4% over the summer months, with the RPI inflation measure set to rise to above 5%. The impact of the inflationary surge is for the Bank of England to have effectively lost control of monetary policy in that the Bank is paralysed into inaction, neither able to cut interest rates to prevent the UK economy from plunging into a recession, nor able to raise interest rates to curb surging inflation for fear of triggering a deeper recession.

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2008

Global Money Supply Data and Comparison for 2008 / Economics / Money Supply

By: Mike_Hewitt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis essay makes comparisons between the money supply of 25 selected economic areas and discusses the ratios between the values of official gold reserves to outstanding currency.

For the purposes of this essay, the Euro-Zone includes the thirteen countries that use the Euro currency: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. China includes Hong Kong. All other economic areas are individual countries.

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2008

An More Accurate Measure of the Money Supply TMS or M3 ? / Economics / Money Supply

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere has been an interesting discussion between Steve Saville and Paul van Eeden over the monetary aggregates M3 and TMS.

For those not familiar with TMS it stands for True Money Supply and it is a monetary measure based on Austrian economic principles. I will come back to the description of TMS in a moment but let's listen to a couple of discussion points from Steve Saville and Paul van Eeden first.

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (July 14-18) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week of July 14-18 will see a major five days macro data, earnings and Fed Talk in the context of a very shaky market. Just a few potential market moving events upcoming on the schedule are: the two-day testimony on monetary policy and the economy by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Earnings statements that may shape the entire trading week will be published will be JP Morgan on Wednesday and Merrill Lynch, Citi and Thornburg Mortgage on Thursday.

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2008

The US Economy Is in Deep Trouble / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Over the past few weeks many notable analysts have made the case that the economy is in the process of recovery. The market has celebrated the wonder of the “resilient consumer.” Given the still fragile state of the economy we think that this is a bit overblown. A cold-eyed, hard-nosed analysis of the true condition of all things financial provides us with a very different assessment of the economy. But, with a major week of fundamental data and the onset of earnings season for financials upon us we thought it pertinent to put a few ideas to rest.

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Economics

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Credit Crisis Losses Pass $1.6 Trillion as Credit Contraction Ensures Recession / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis Article$1.6 Trillion in Losses and Counting
  • Banks Start to Reduce Their Lending
  • Take Freddie Mac. Please.
  • The Ugly Muddle Through
  • Once Again, the BLS Numbers Paint a False Picture

It seems that with each passing month the estimates for losses in the international banking system keep rising. This time last summer the largest estimates (from credible sources), if memory serves me correct, were around $400 billion, give or take a few months. By the end of the year it was in the neighborhood of twice that. Then last quarter we saw estimates approaching $1 trillion. Last week, the number being broached was $1.6 trillion, by Bridgewater Associates, one of the top, and more credible, analytical firms in the world.

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Economics

Friday, July 11, 2008

US Trade:Deficit Realities and Fallout / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI want everyone to forget the first sentence of last week's column. Things are not scary; they're bordering on out of control on several fronts. In particular, there are two items which are getting nearly no press that urgently need to be discussed. While the media world continues to focus on whether or not Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have another 12 hours of solvency left, our trade deficit continues to persist despite continued weakness in the Dollar and out of control import prices. I like to use these two macro measures as a barometer of not only what is going on now, but what is likely to happen down the road.

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Economics

Friday, July 11, 2008

Protect Your Wealth from the Coming Hyper-Inflation! / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve and a bevy of Wall Street economists want you to believe that the economy is okay.

The Secretary of the Treasury tells us the "economy may avoid a recession." In other words, just pretend that it's never going to happen.

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Economics

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Bank of England: Caught Between Inflation and Recession / Economics / UK Economy

By: Victoria_Marklew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs expected, the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.0% this morning, despite the fact that May's annual rate of inflation hit 3.3%. This was the highest since the BoE won full independence over monetary policy in 1997, and caused BoE Governor King to have to write an open letter to Chancellor Darling last month explaining why CPI is more than one full percentage point over the Bank's 2.0% target. But, as King pointed out, while inflation is likely to remain above target for some months yet, there is also a downside risk that the economy will slow sharply and pull CPI below target in two years. The past few days have certainly brought mounting evidence of a marked slowdown, with some analysts starting to whisper of the risk of recession.

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Economics

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Global Stock Markets Hit by Staglation Fears and Threat of War with Iran / Economics / Stagflation

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn today's lightning fast and violent markets, where a constant barrage of news and noise flows into the marketplace each day, it's easy to forget a vital piece of information that was released just a few hours or days earlier. Trader sentiment is often swayed by the price action of the moment, and it's easy to lose sight of the mega-trends and core issues, that move the markets over the longer-term.

It was nearly one-year ago, on July 17, 2007, when Bear Stearns BSC said in a letter to investors, that two of its troubled hedge funds that bet heavily on risky sub-prime mortgages had very little value. “The preliminary estimates show there is effectively no value left for the investors in the Enhanced Leverage Fund and very little value left for the investors in the High-Grade Fund, as of June 30, 2007,” BSC said.

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Economics

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Economists Continue to Favor Failed Doctrine Against Real Facts / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Tim_Iacono

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat if what they taught you is wrong? - In this Financial Times commentary , Wolfgang Münchau comes ever so close to asking what must be one of the most difficult of all questions for any practicing economist to ask, "What if what they taught you is wrong?"

[Note: This is similar to what some U.S.-based financial advisers might be asking themselves today, eight years into a secular bear market in stocks where "stocks for the long run" may not make a whole lot of sense for someone whose "long run" is only 15 years or so and happened to begin around 2000.]

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Economics

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Soaring Unemployment, Collapsing Credit From Stagflation to Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI recently received an Email from "RS", a long time member of the hyperinflation is coming crowd now but now sees things in a different light. Let's tune in and see what "RS" has to say.

Mish, I was a true believer in the "hyperinflation is coming" theory for quite some time. However, I have since changed my mind. Here's why: I own a computer business and I used to pay techs $15-20/hr. I now have people willing to work for $8-$10/hr. While the nice guy inside is saying “pay people well” the businessman is saying “market conditions demand paying people what the market will support.”

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Economics

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Stagflation Sightings Multiplying / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Browne

We have long warned that stagflation, or economic contraction accompanied by inflation, would become so evident that even the most optimistic observers could not deny its virulence. 

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Economics

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Strip Mall Vacancies Spike to Levels Last Seen in 1995 / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

MoneyNews is reporting Retail Property, Vacancies Q2 Worst in 30 Years .
U.S. store closings and cutbacks turned the second quarter into the worst for strip mall owners in 30 years, as budget-conscious consumers flocked to low-cost warehouse-style grocery centers, according to a report by real estate research firm Reis.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Bursting Bubbles Mean Inflation to Give Way to Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter does just that. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst and for the conversation and our experience to be rising inflation and not a serious problem with deflation.

Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt give us a seminar on why it will be deflation that will ultimately be the problem and not the current inflation we are dealing with today. This week's letter requires you to think, but it will be worth the effort. Remember our lesson from Economics 101. If you raise the supply of something, in normal markets the price goes down. And if you increase the price, suppliers will respond by producing more.

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Economics

Sunday, July 06, 2008

UK Economy Slams Into Reverse as Retailers Experience Sales Hell / Economics / UK Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Independent is reporting Seven days that shook the British high street .
It was a week that most retailers would probably prefer to forget – seven days that shook the high street. From the grandest names to the most minor, the news has been uniformly grim. Yesterday, the mighty John Lewis reported that its sales are running 9 per cent down on last year. Marks & Spencer, still Britain's leading clothes retailer, warned on Wednesday of sharply lower sales and profits, and promptly saw a quarter of its stock-market value wiped out.

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2008

US Metalworking Business Index Trends Point to Economic Contraction / Economics / UK Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock


Steve Kline who produces the Metalworking Business Index survey, shared an email with me from a correspondent who wanted to raise capital to expand, but could not get the loan. Let's take a look.
Steve,

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2008

Global Inflationary Pressures: No End in Sight / Economics / Inflation

By: Salman_Khan

Inflationary pressures, coming at a time when there are palpable signs of economic slowdown, has been spooking the global Governments, policymakers, financial authorities and marketmen alike. Worldwide, prices of commodities like Crude Oil, Wheat and Rice have skyrocketed in last one year or so. Policymakers have been especially finding themselves helpless in present situation due to the "global" nature of the current inflation. Central Bankers are also in a fix as given the slowdown in economic activity, they won't be able to fight the inflation the way Volcker did by aggressively raising the interest rates back in 1970's. Stagflation is extremely difficult for conventional policy instruments to deal with, since the attempt to deal with any one of the problems tends to exacerbate the other.

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2008

US Jobs Report Less than Expected; Based on BLS Statistical Assumptions / Economics / US Economy

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold was down $12.90 to $931.90 in New York yesterday and silver closed at $18.28, down 5 cents. Gold remained at these levels in Asia but has fallen near to yesterday's lows in early trading in Europe. Oil has fallen marginally < $144.40 down 0.6% - Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - AUG08> and the dollar is flat after yesterday's strong gains.

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Economics

Thursday, July 03, 2008

US Jobs Decline for 6th Consecutive Month Data / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBefore taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.

Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 404,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 390,500, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average of 379,250.

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