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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, July 26, 2008

UK Economy Sharp Slowdown on Q2 GDP of 0.2% / Economics / UK Economy

By: Victoria_Marklew

Today's preliminary Q2 GDP report from the UK showed real growth slowing to 0.2% on the quarter and 1.6% on the year, the weakest in three years and down from 0.3% and 2.3%, respectively, in Q1. A marked fall in construction output, the result of weakness in private house building, was largely to blame - down 0.7% on the quarter. However, the slowdown in the dominant service sector was also notable, with growth of just 0.4% on the quarter and 2.1% on the year, the weakest annual growth in 16 years.

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Economics

Friday, July 25, 2008

US Conflicting Economic Data : Payrolls and Second Quarter GDP Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe upcoming week will be defined by two closely linked US macroeconomic data that will frame the debate about which direction the economy is poised to take during the latter half of 2008. Yet, these two data are likely to paint two very different portraits regarding the condition of the economy. On Thursday the market will observe the preliminary estimate of economic growth during the second quarter of the year, followed by the publication of the July non-farm payrolls the next morning.

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Economics

Thursday, July 24, 2008

It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn...of a Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Kurt_Kasun

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe financial system will collapse before "zero-hour" actually occurs. I think we are seeing signs of it in the desperate measures being employed to nationalize companies which trade on market exchanges as private enterprises. There is simply no way to defend the SEC's decision to selectively enforce the prohibition of naked short selling for 17 ‘fragile' financial companies and to not enforce it for the over 5000 other companies which trade on US stock market exchanges. And plans to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac breathe of a sort of corporate nationalism. Over time this will deal a massive psychological blow to financial markets. They are currently rallying on the sense of relief that the efforts to prevent Fannie and Freddie from dragging US financial markets into the abyss have succeeded and the inevitable day of reckoning has been postponed once again.

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Economics

Thursday, July 24, 2008

UK Retail Sales Worst Slump in 20 Years Surprises Market Commentators / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Retail Sales for June fell by a record 3.9% inline with the evidence of a rapidly slowing UK economy which is hitting the retail sector hard. Many mainstream market commentators have been taken by surprise by the released data as it follow hard on the heels of Mays surprise jump of 3.4% which was taken by many commentators at the time as the signs of a mini high street spending boom despite mounting evidence of a distressed retail sector which has witnessed literally crashing share prices on the back of earnings warnings as witnessed by Marks and Spencer's 20% crash at the start of this month.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Crude Oil Prices, Monetary Stability and Credit Expansion / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI would like to say that economic commentary on the present energy situation is an improvement on what has gone on before. As I said, I would like to. The media message is an old one. Whether it be America, Australia or Europe the cry from greens is that rising oil prices are good for us because they conserve oil and speed up alternative energy and transport technologies. So successful has this line of attack been that some so-called free-market commentators have mindlessly parroted it, oblivious to the fact that it flies in the face of economics.

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Economics

Monday, July 21, 2008

China's First Experience with Paper Fiat Money / Economics / Fiat Currency

By: Mike_Hewitt

Paper, one of the four Great Inventions by the Ancient Chinese along with printing, the compass and gun powder, was invented by Cai Lun in 105 A.D. from bark, rags, wheat stalks and other materials. The first historical use with paper money began shortly thereafter around 140 B.C., nearly 1800 years before its arrival in Europe. How this money came to an end is not known.

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Economics

Monday, July 21, 2008

UK Economy Heading for Recession 2009, All Gloom and Doom? / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat a difference a few weeks can make as if out of the blue the UK is headed for a deep dark recession as per headlines gripping the mainstream press of late. Whereas the fact of the matter is that none of this has appeared out of the blue, articles at the Market Oracle both penned by myself and others have laid the precise time-line for events long before the current doom and gloom headlines appeared.

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Economics

Monday, July 21, 2008

US Financial & Economic Crisis Heading for Repeat Misery of Japans Lost Decade / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWilliam Patalon III writes: If you think the "Lost Decade" Japan endured during the 1990s was deep and painful, stick around: As the global financial crisis that was jump-started by the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market continues to unwind, the U.S. economy is headed for a financial Ice Age that will make Japan's 10 wasted years seem like a single chilly night.

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Economics

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Commercial Bankruptcies Soar as BLS Jobs Data Shown as Worthless / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe McClatchy Washington Bureau is reporting Commercial bankruptcies soar, reflecting widening economic woes .
Commercial filings for the first half of 2008 are up 45 percent from last year, as the national climate for commerce continues to deteriorate amid rising energy and food costs, mounting job losses, tighter credit and a reticence among consumers to part with discretionary income.

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Economics

Sunday, July 20, 2008

California Insolvent as Schwarzenegger's Financial Wizardry is Terminated / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday, in Taxpayers Can Bear No More , we discussed the record public debt problem in the UK. Chancellor Alistair Darling made it "clear that he thought that the only politically viable option was to increase borrowing, rather than to raise taxation."

In the US, states are facing similar budget dilemmas.

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Economics

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Credit Crisis and Housing Bust- Don't Worry the World Will Not End / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe World Will Not End
  • Take a Deep Breath
  • 9% Growth in Housing or a 4% Loss?

Housing starts rose 9% and the market cheerleaders proclaimed that we have seen a bottom. But not if you look at the actual numbers. New unemployment claims were OK, but not if you look at the actual numbers. And inflation was simply ugly, no matter what numbers you look at. However, oil is down and there is reason to think it may have further to go on the downside. We cover all this and more, as we first look at why the world is not going to end.

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Economics

Friday, July 18, 2008

US Consumer Retail Sales Contraction Worse than 2001 / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Don't write off the U.S. consumer, right? Wrong. On a year-over-year basis there has been a sharp deceleration in nominal retail sales growth. On a year-over-year basis, there has been a sharp contraction in price-adjusted retail sales. The chart below using quarterly average data illustrates this. Growth in nominal retail sales peaked back in the first quarter of 2006 at 7.6% in this cycle. In the second quarter of this year, nominal retail sales growth had slowed to just 2.6%.

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Economics

Friday, July 18, 2008

Brown Breaks Another Golden Rule, Real UK Debt Above 40% of GDP / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFollowing abandoning of the rule for a balanced budget over an economic cycle, which was broken more than two years ago and followed by repeat manipulation of the start date of the economic cycle and has since been quietly forgotten from Treasury statements. Now the next golden unbreakable rule for economic competence that Gordon's Darling is busy reconstructing for the electorate to swallow is that Government debt must remain below 40% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

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Economics

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Status Report on the Collapse of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_C_Cook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the economic news of the week of July 14—the continuing crisis among mortgage lenders, the onset of bank failures, the announced downsizing of General Motors, the slide of the Dow-Jones below 11,000—we are seeing the ongoing collapse of the U.S. economy. Even the super-rich are becoming nervous as cries for an emergency suspension of short selling ring out.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Ireland: Economic Hangover as Retail Sales Contract / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Victoria_Marklew

Today's headline out of Ireland will add to fears that the decade-long economic boom is ending with a recession. The volume of retail sales fell 1.1% on the month and plunged 4.8% on the year in May, the fourth consecutive monthly fall and the sharpest annual drop since 1987.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

UK Flawed Inflation Measure Stoking Wage Price Spiral and Worker Discontent / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK inflation continues to accelerate after busting through the 3% ceiling in April, and hitting 3.8% in June. However the real rate of inflation being experienced by consumers is a function of the actual purchases made rather than the price of the wide ranging basket of more than 110,000 goods and services that the CPI inflation rate attempts to track. The reason for this is that consumers are feeling the relentless impact of rising fuel, energy, food and credit costs whilst at the same time impacted by asset price deflation as the housing market completes its 10th month in a bear market that has seen house prices now decline by nearly 10% from the August 2007 high or by an average of £20,000. In addition to this the UK stock market has lost 20% of its value from its 2007 highs.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Profit from Economic Boom and Bust Cycles / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Brent_Harmes

Rather than study theory, let's watch the news!

Here is a Yahoo Finance Video . This is exactly the stuff that Mike Maloney was predicting on stage years ago - and it is happening today! Mike sounded slightly nuts when he was talking about this during the housing boom. Few forecasters anticipated that this boom ever really would bust, but the credit balloon can only inflate so far and then it wants to deflate. This has happened repeatedly throughout history.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Bernanke Delivers 'Hogwash' Testimony to Congress / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChairman Ben S. Bernanke testified Before the U.S. Senate in the Fed's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress . Let's take a look at some of the highlights.

The economy has continued to expand, but at a subdued pace. In the labor market, private payroll employment has declined this year, falling at an average pace of 94,000 jobs per month through June. Employment in the construction and manufacturing sectors has been particularly hard hit, although employment declines in a number of other sectors are evident as well. The unemployment rate has risen and now stands at 5-1/2 percent.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Former Prime Minister Confesses Real UK Inflation is 10%, Triple Official Rate of 3.8% / Economics / Inflation

By: Mark_OByrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold finished trading in New York yesterday at $972.10, up $12.00 and silver was up to $19.15, up 38 cents. Gold rose in trading in Asia before further rises in early European trading. Gold is now up some 7% in the last 5 trading days (from below $920 to over $983) and in normal circumstances one would expect a correction and consolidation. However, these are not normal circumstances.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Inflation Surges to 3.8% as Bank of England Loses Control of Monetary Policy / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe official rate of UK inflation as measured by the CPI index surged higher for June to 3.8% from 3.3% which is inline with Market Oracle expectations that is expected to see inflation continue trending higher to well above 4% over the summer months, with the RPI inflation measure set to rise to above 5%. The impact of the inflationary surge is for the Bank of England to have effectively lost control of monetary policy in that the Bank is paralysed into inaction, neither able to cut interest rates to prevent the UK economy from plunging into a recession, nor able to raise interest rates to curb surging inflation for fear of triggering a deeper recession.

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