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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, August 18, 2008

G7 Collapsing GDP Growth Mirrors Plunging Corporate Earnings / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConfusion reigns supreme as markets correct, in predictable manner, allowing the Main stream financial press, G7 central banks and poorly prepared investors dream of the days when the financial wind was at their backs, rather then brutally in their faces. Markets are moving in a violently countertrend manner allowing people and investors with short term memories to predict the return to happy days. Don't blink or you may miss your day in the sun as: NOTHING HAS CHANGED! Absolutely nothing.

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Economics

Monday, August 18, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (August 18-22) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week of August 18-22 will see a very light week of economic data on the calendar. Aside from Dallas Fed President Fisher's comments on the US Economy on Wed, the only potentially market moving macro data for the week will be the Monday release of the PPI and Tuesday publication of the Housing Starts series for July. The remainder of the major data for the week will be released on Thursday when the weekly jobless claims series, the August Philadelphia Fed survey and the June index of leading economic indicators are published.

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Economics

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Double Digit Inflation Forecasts are way off base / Economics / Inflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBusinessWeek is Bracing for Inflation . Let's take a look at an article written by John K. Castle, CEO of Castle Harlan, a New York private equity firm. Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009.

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Economics

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Crashing Global Economy Boosts Dollar as Interest Rate Differentials Narrow / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlmost exactly a year after the advent of the credit debacle, the term “credit crunch” squeezed into Britain's Chambers dictionary, defined as “a sudden and drastic reduction in the availability of credit”.

Fittingly, the past week witnessed market participants focusing anew on deteriorating global growth prospects, arguing that slower growth and belt-tightening times could reduce inflation pressures.

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Economics

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Economic Decoupling Fails as World Follows US into Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: John_Mauldin

  • Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Mid-Year Correction
  • Whatever Happened to Decoupling?
  • The UK Starts to Slow
  • A Recession by Any Other Name
  • What's a Central Banker to Do?

The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world. And Europe's new and growing markets would be able to stave off problems from abroad and stay on their own growth path. The world, we were assured last year, would not suffer from problems in the US economy.

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Economics

Friday, August 15, 2008

Euro-zone on the Brink of Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJennifer Yousfi writes: The Eurozone economy recorded its first decline in more than a decade as slowdowns in the European Union's largest economies dragged on gross domestic product (GDP).

The Eurozone economy, which covers the 15 nations that share the euro currency, contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, as a 0.5% decline in Germany and a 0.3% decline in France offset gains in the smaller economies of Austria, Portugal and Spain, Eurostat, the European Union's official statistics office, announced yesterday (Thursday).

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Economics

Friday, August 15, 2008

Fundemental Change as Global Economy Heads For Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe global economy is slowing rapidly. Let's take a look at some striking examples.

Germany, France, Spain, Italy

Bloomberg is reporting German, French Economies Shrink as Spending, Investment Falter .

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Economics

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Global Oil, Food and Water Crisis Economic Tipping Points / Economics / Global Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: I'll discuss the state of the markets shortly. First, I'd like to discuss the state of the world's future.

According to a long-term study just released by the U.S. Naval Services Department, a series of tipping points could dramatically alter the global prospects for economic growth and humanity — for the worse.

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Economics

Thursday, August 14, 2008

US Deceptive Q2 GDP Based on Fraudulent Price Deflator / Economics / Market Manipulation

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is hard to find much positive regarding the gold trade lately. The attacks have been multi-faceted during the weak late summer season. So resort to something of value: THE TRUTH. As Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “The greatest homage one can pay to the truth is to tell it.” When the US financial lattice work was showing clear signals of near total destruction, if not simple decimation, when USGovt bailouts seemed certain to cost in the trillion$ from mortgage agency rescues and FHA mortgage loan mulligans (second chance shot in golf), when US banks seemed caught in a race to raise more cash for equity from friendly foreign fools who fail to read the news, when the USEconomic recession has been turning broad and deep, when General Motors and Ford seem caught managing their death process toward a certain bankruptcy, THE USGOVT NEEDED A REALLY GOOD LIE FROM WHICH TO BUILD A DOLLAR BOUNCE.

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Economics

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Global Goldilocks Economy ? / Economics / US Economy

By: Kurt_Kasun

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe new narrative forming among the Goldilocks crowd is that US economic supremacy reigns once again, as manifest in a reawakened "King Dollar". The US dollar will continue to strengthen, commodity prices will plummet, and the stock market can only rally from here since all of the bad news has already been discounted. The Global Goldilocks view is that the rest of the world slows just enough to dampen commodity pressures and prices, but the world does not slow too much to wreck the American economy. The dollar strengthens resulting in capital flows into the US . And voila-- we have a return to the glory days of the 1990s.

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Economics

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Bank of England's Worthless 2% 2Year CPI Inflation Forecasts / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England's in depth 48 page quarterly inflation report published yesterday concludes with the forecast for UK CPI inflation to be at 2% in 2 years time. Since the Bank of England first adopted the 2% CPI inflation target back in 2003, the Bank has perpetually made the same forecast for 2% CPI in two years time, and nearly always missed the target by a wide margin. Clearly there is something wrong in the banks procedures which appears to deliver the motions of generating paper work such as the 48 page report, followed by pats on the back rather than an effective response to the failure to meet the Banks primary objective.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

UK Inflation Shocking Rise to 4.4% CPI Confirms Stagflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflation data for July CPI inflation came in at a truly shocking rate of 4.4%, up 0.6% on June and well beyond our expectations for CPI inflation of 4.1% with the upper worse case scenario of inflation of 4.3%. Whilst at the same time the more recognised RPI measure equally rose to a shocking 5% rate also up 0.6% on June and now matches the base interest rate of 5% as the UK heads for negative real interest rates which has very bearish implications for sterling.

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Economics

Monday, August 11, 2008

Economic Deflation is Not Coming, Deflation is Here! / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's chief North American economist, says the US Remains Firmly In Recession .
Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg, the first economist from a major bank to declare a US recession was underway back in early January, argues that recent unemployment figures show yet more evidence that the US economy is a deep recession. My Comment : I could not possibly agree more.

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Economics

Saturday, August 09, 2008

Italy Tips Into Recession as Q2 GDP Contracts / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Victoria_Marklew

The first of the Euro-zone's big economies reported preliminary Q2 GDP data today -- and the picture was not a pretty one. Italy's GDP contracted 0.3% q-o-q in Q2, and posted zero growth on the year.

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Economics

Saturday, August 09, 2008

The Fast Disappearing U.S. Middle Class / Economics / US Stock Markets

By: Jennifer_Barry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI've been concerned about the state of the U.S. economy for several years, but only recently has mainstream America started waking up to the severity of the crisis. Even the depths of the Dow bear market in 2003 didn't engender this much pessimism. At the time, most people still believed that stocks would go up in the long run, and it was time to scoop up the bargains.

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Economics

Friday, August 08, 2008

American Dream Optimism in Denial of Inflation and Slumping Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn holding overnight rates steady at 2% this week, the Fed once again put forth its belief that despite a cascade of horrific financial data, the economy was likely to continue to grow slowly and that inflation would moderate.  Although wrong on both counts, this view is consistent with the relative optimism that prevails across the country. After nearly two decades of an uninterrupted consumption binge, most Americans simply refuse to believe that anything can seriously derail the American economy. It's a pleasant dream, but the wakeup call can't be too far off.

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Economics

Friday, August 08, 2008

Rising Inflation Ensures Stock Markets Headed for More Distress / Economics / Inflation

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe enthusiastic response of the market to the moderation in the price of imported oil and the Fed monetary statement is a bit overdone. It is based on the hope that inflation will moderate rather than a hard-nosed look at the pricing environment. Our Senior Economic advisor Bill Poole, who knows more than a bit about crafting a coherent Fed statement, reminded the market recently that since August 2006 the FOMC in one way or another has been signaling that they anticipate inflation will moderate in coming quarters. Yet, our core inflation forecast suggests otherwise.

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Economics

Thursday, August 07, 2008

US Economic Wealth Last Chance Saloon Rant / Economics / UK Economy

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat a feckin mess we are in. Yea how the mighty have fallen, whom those that expect wealth see only ruin, how the public will bail out the profligate. Welcome to the incredibly horrible world I have foreseen and how Eggertsson got it so right but how the endgame is so wrong for Joe Public. You think the Mogambo Guru has a deep bunker of absolute denial (MBDBOD)? Well I'll let you into a secret, the fecker is digging wayyyyyy higher in the earths crust than I am.

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Economics

Thursday, August 07, 2008

US Soaring Jobless Claims and the "L" Shaped Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleImplications Of An Overleveraged Consumer

For an economy overleveraged on consumer spending the chart could hardly look worse. Yet, it is going to get worse, lots worse. Hiring has stalled, commercial real estate is hitting the skids, vacancy rates at malls are rising, lease rates are dropping. In short, the Shopping Center Economic Model Is History .

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Economics

Thursday, August 07, 2008

German Manufacturing Hit by Crumbling Eurozone Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Victoria_Marklew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMidst a steady drumbeat of weak-to-negative economic news out of the Euro-zone in the past few days, there was one report today that gives particular cause for concern - German manufacturing orders. Germany has been the 'zone's economic powerhouse in the past few quarters, continuing to see steady-to-strong GDP growth even as demand and output started to weaken, or even outright slide, in France, Italy, and Spain. However, falling demand from the neighbors is starting to take a toll.

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