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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Japan Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

About a month ago, Japan’s giant GPIF pension fund announced it had started doing in Q4 2014, what PM Abe had long asked it to: shift a large(r) portion of its investment portfolio from bonds to stocks. No more safe assets for the world’s largest pension fund, or a lot less at least, but risky ones. For Abe this promises the advantage of an economy that looks healthier than it actually is, while for the fund it means that the returns on its investments could be higher than if it stuck to safe assets. Not a word about the dangers, not a word about why pensions funds were, for about as long as they’ve been in existence, obliged by law to only hold AAA assets. This is from February 27:

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Economics

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

U.S. Economy Still on Life Support - What Your Governments Hiding From You... / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

Dear investor,

For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly.

But as a student of the markets, you know that already.

So here's something you may not know ...

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Economics

Monday, March 23, 2015

U.S. Economy and the Illusion of Prosperity / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

President Obama and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen have recently been crowing about improving economic conditions in the U.S.  Unemployment is down to 5.5% and economic growth in 2014 hit 2.4%.

Journalists and economists point to this improvement as proof that quantitative easing was effective. They seem to have political blinders on. The boom is artificial and has been built by adding debt on top of excessive debt.  Total household debt increased 2.5 % in 2014 – the highest level since 2010. Mortgage loans increased 1.5%, student loans jumped by 6.6%, and auto loans swelled a hefty 9.6%.  The improving auto sales are based on a bubble of sub- prime borrowers. Auto sales have been brisk because of a surge in loans to individuals with credit scores below 640. Auto loans to individuals with strong credit scores, above 720, have barely budged.

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Economics

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Recent Economic Data Shows the Good Side of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: MISES

Edin Mujagic writes: The Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England repeatedly tell us that deflation is extremely dangerous for an economy. Central bankers, most economists, and the media speak of deflation as one of the greatest disasters that can strike an economy.

It is stunning then, given the apparent importance of the subject — and the possible collateral damage of pro-inflation policies — that few seem to bother to ask the deeper, fundamental question: does the historical data show that deflation is actually a terrible thing? The data suggests that it is not. In fact, looking at recent GDP, inflation, and employment data, one could even say that a shot of deflation is what many economies need. Let us take a look at the recent real-life examples.

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Economics

Thursday, March 19, 2015

European QE Creates Distortions in World Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Browne

In the closing months of 2014, Germany faced a difficult dilemma. Although its own economy was holding up well, incoming data showed that the rest of the Eurozone was rapidly slipping into recession. As a result, the calls for the European Central Bank (ECB) to unleash its own quantitative easing campaign grew louder. However, the policy had always been unpopular in Germany, both among high financial officials and rank and file Germans, where a strong euro has been prized. But in the end, Berlin was 'persuaded' to drop its efforts to forestall a QE campaign that everyone else in the world seemed to want.

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Economics

Thursday, March 19, 2015

China's Deflationary Economic Bust and Beyond: Anne Stevenson-Yang Presentation / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Anne Stevenson-Yang graciously made her presentation on China 2015 Risks - Deflationary Bust and Beyond publicly available.

I wanted to embed the document but it got distorted a bit, so please click on the above link to download the document.

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Economics

Monday, March 16, 2015

Government Regulation is a Another Hidden Tax / Economics / Market Regulation

By: MISES

D. Brady Nelson writes: Perhaps due to it not being as readily quantifiable as government taxation, debt, welfare, and money creation; regulation has too often been superficially dealt with. In many ways, the largely “hidden tax” of regulation is a bigger threat to liberty, economy, and morality than other weapons of forceful government intervention.

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Economics

Monday, March 16, 2015

Hyperinflation is a Process / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Reserve currency or no, hyperinflation is a process. And we are fully entrenched in that process. History defines the parameters for us.

Too much debt, too much money created from nothing. And ultimately, the loss of confidence, leading to panic. Those who deny it are not looking, not measuring correctly, or both. Much of the confusion comes from the unnecessary use of jargon and euphemism.

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Economics

Saturday, March 14, 2015

An Austrian take on Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Alasdair_Macleod

We know that today’s macroeconomists are very confused about inflation, if only because despite all experience they think they can print money and increase bank credit with a view to generating price inflation at a controlled 2% rate. Admittedly, most of them will acknowledge there is more hope than reality about the controlled bit. Economic policy should be based on more than just hope.

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Economics

Friday, March 13, 2015

Alan Greenspan Warns Crude Oil Price Hasn't Hit Bottom Yet / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Alan Greenspan spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu about the outlook for oil, the U.S. economy and the dollar.

Greenspan told Betty Liu that oil hasn't hit bottom yet: "We are at the point now where, at the current rate of fill, we’re going to run out of room [at our domestic facility in Cushing, Oklahoma] by next month. And then the question is -- where does the crude go?  Because everyone's forecast as to what was going to happen when prices collapsed was a sharp curtailment in shale oil production.  That has not happened.  The weekly figures, which are produced by the Energy Information Agency through March the 6, show a continued rise in domestic crude production and it has got no place to go, because we can’t legally export the way we would for most products.  We can do a little exporting and Canada, but essentially, we’re bottling up a huge amount of crude oil in the United States."

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Economics

Thursday, March 12, 2015

China Economic Growth Reality Check, Hard Landing Global Recession at Hand / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

How Fast is China Growing?

Analyst estimates of Chinese growth keep getting lower and lower. Yet, those declining estimates have all been from a lofty level: From 10% to 9%, to 8% to 7.5%.

China's growth target for 2015 is 7.0%.

Many question those growth estimates. I certainly do. Chinese growth is not consistent with energy demand, raw materials, or personal consumption. Worse yet, growth does not factor in pollution or malinvestments in vacant housing, vacant malls, vacant airports, etc.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

U.S. Employment, the Economy & Interest Rates / Economics / US Economy

By: Gary_Tanashian

The February Employment report was a strong +295,000 with unemployment dropping to 5.5%. In Friday's Market Notes update we highlighted that per BLS this was a services-driven report as the leading edge of the economy, the smaller but key manufacturing and industrial sectors, have begun to decelerate (notably in forward-looking 'New Orders').

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Economics

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

China: Hot Money Flow In, Now Out / Economics / China Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

For some years, hot money flowed in, adding massively to China’s foreign reserve stockpile. Speculators borrowed cheaply in U.S. dollars and bought yuan-denominated assets in anticipation of an ever-appreciating yuan. Well, this carry trade has shifted into reverse, with $91 billion in net outflows in the last quarter of 2014. And with that, the ever-appreciating yuan story has come to a close, too. Indeed, the yuan has lost 1.8% against the greenback since the New Year.

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Economics

Monday, March 09, 2015

The Grand Deception Continues, More Fed Propaganda / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Michael_Pento

Last Friday a photograph of a dress, whose exact colors were in doubt and became the subject of much debate, dominated the Internet. Not only is this a perfect example of the inane distractions that the public is fascinated with, but it is also a topic that should be elevated to a higher level of discussion. That is, how people can look at the same thing and yet interpret it in different ways?

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Economics

Sunday, March 08, 2015

Why It Matters If the Dollar Is the Reserve Currency / Economics / US Dollar

By: MISES

Patrick Barron writes: We refer to the dollar as a “reserve currency” when referring to its use by other countries when settling their international trade accounts. For example, if Canada buys goods from China, China may prefer to be paid in US dollars rather than Canadian dollars. The US dollar is the more “marketable” money internationally, meaning that most countries will accept it in payment, so China can use its dollars to buy goods from other countries, not solely the US. Such might not be the case with the Canadian dollar, and China would have to hold its Canadian dollars until it found something to buy from Canada. Multiply this scenario by all the countries of the world who print their own money and one can see that without a currency accepted widely in the world, international trade would slow down and become more expensive. In some ways, its effect would be similar to that of erecting trade barriers, such as the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 that contributed to the Great Depression.

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Economics

Saturday, March 07, 2015

U.S. Employment Trends - What Age Groups Get the Jobs? / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

One interesting fact in today's jobs report (see Diving Into the Payroll Report: Establishment +295K Jobs; Household +96K Employment, Labor Force -178K) was a drop in teenage unemployment of 1.7 percentage points while overall the unemployment rate fell by only 0.2 percentage points.

The only reason the overall rate fell was a plunge in labor force of 178,000. Household survey employment only rose by 96,000 vs. the establishment survey gain of an alleged +295,000.

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Economics

Friday, March 06, 2015

Who Benefits From Higher Minimum Wages? Demographic Perspective / Economics / Wages

By: Mike_Shedlock

Of all the ridiculous notion floating around in the liberal media is the notion that higher minimum wages will create jobs.

The theory goes like this: Pay people more, they will have more to spend, and by spending more they will create more jobs. On that basis, proponents argue for a $15 minimum wage at McDonald's. There are several obvious flaws in such arguments.

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Economics

Friday, March 06, 2015

Euro Depreciation and U.S. Manufacturing / Economics / Fiat Currency

By: John_Rubino

The premise of a currency war is that by devaluing its currency a country is able to sell things overseas more cheaply, which gooses its growth at the expense of its trading partners.

If it actually works that way, then you’d expect this chart of the euro plunging against the dollar…

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Economics

Thursday, March 05, 2015

Understanding True Credit and False Credit / Economics / Credit Crisis 2015

By: Frank_Shostak

There are two kinds of credit: that which would be offered in a market economy with sound money and banking (true credit), and that which is made possible only through a system of central banking, artificially low interest rates, and fractional reserves (false credit).

Banks cannot expand true credit as such. All that they can do in reality is to facilitate the transfer of a given pool of savings from savers (i.e., those lending to the bank) to borrowers.

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Economics

Thursday, March 05, 2015

Spock, Debt and the Kingdom of Denmark / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Mauldin

In Thoughts from the Frontline, I am in the middle of writing a series on debt. I realized on Sunday that the second installment wasn’t ready for prime time, so I will work on it some more and send it out (hopefully) this coming weekend. In the meantime, in keeping with the theme of debt, for today’s Outside the Box we have the following issue of The Credit Strategist from the ever-insightful Michael Lewitt. Michael starts out musing on debt and then shares a number of useful thoughts on a variety of market topics, with his usual panache.

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