Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Key Economic Reports Prior to June 21-22 FOMC Meeting / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
It is widely recognized that the U.S. economy has lost momentum in the second quarter. The FOMC meeting of June 21-22 and Chairman Bernanke's press conference of June 22 will focus on this aspect. In the meanwhile, a string of economic reports are scheduled for publication prior to the FOMC meeting. Of these reports, retail sales, Consumer Price Index, industrial production, and housing starts should be the major market movers and they will have a bearing on the policy outlook presented after the close of the FOMC meeting.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Kress Cycle Economic Tsunami / Economics / Cycles Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
Forgotten in the avalanche of economic headlines in recent weeks is the fact that the housing market hit a new low. In the latest reporting month the national housing index hit a new low, falling below the previous low from April 2009. This should be prompting a nationwide debate in the press as to whether a new down leg in the housing market lies ahead. Instead, all we hear is crickets. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 13, 2011
The Keys to Economic Growth and New Jobs / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Recent economic data show that U.S. job growth in May was negligible, while the official unemployment figure-- at least the figure the Labor Department admits to-- rose to 9.1%. The real unemployment figure, however, as compiled by economist John Williams, may well be higher than 20%. It is clear the U.S. economy is in terrible shape, and that no amount of government spending or Federal Reserve quantitative easing can reduce unemployment, increase real productivity, or address our debt fiasco.U.S. jobs and productivity are dependent on the accumulation of private capital to finance existing businesses or fund new entrepreneurial activity. Private capital-- whether accumulated by profitable U.S. businesses, invested by private equity and venture capital firms, or attracted from abroad-- is the key to economic growth and new jobs. But we cannot create jobs if we demonize profits, punish risk-taking capitalists, and stay hostile to foreign investment.
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Sunday, June 12, 2011
Where Is The Economic Recovery? I Cannot Seem To Find It / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Tony_Pallotta
The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision." - Helen Keller
Possibly the only thing worse than having a serious problem on your hands is when you clearly do not understand the problem. You ignore the data and find an easy scapegoat for why the problem is temporary and will pass. The slowdown in the US economy is not transitory as the Fed chairman states. Hopes for 3-4% GDP growth in the second half of 2011 are simply that, hope.
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Sunday, June 12, 2011
The Unemployment Conspiracy; It's the Policy, Stupid / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Whitney
When the recovery began 2 years ago, the rate of unemployment was 9.5 percent. Today it's 9.1 percent. Think about that for a minute. Doesn't that prove that the market isn't really self-correcting after all? I mean, if the market was self-correcting then unemployment would have gone down by now, right? But, it hasn't. Why?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 10, 2011
Greek Unemployment and GDP / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Ian_R_Campbell
The officially reported U.S. unemployment rate currently is 9.1%, and is frequently said by pundits to be at about 20% if all those Americans who have 'given up' looking for work are counted. Under any assumption the current U.S. unemployment rate is at extremely high levels by any historic standard - and everyone agrees, without really knowing where improvement is going to come from - that the reported U.S. unemployment rate needs to come down, and come down sooner than later.
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Thursday, June 09, 2011
U.S. Economy Brakes Even Before Fed Takes Its Foot Off the Accelerator / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In our April 28 update, we emphasized that our forecast was in “transition” from stronger to weaker in large part depending on the behavior of bank credit. This month we have made the transition to a significantly weaker outlook, not only because of the current behavior of bank credit, but also because of the current behavior of the overall economy. With regard to the latter, even before the Federal Reserve has terminated its second round of quantitative easing – that is, even before the Fed has taken its foot off the monetary accelerator – the underlying pace of U.S. economic activity already appears to be coming in weaker than we had anticipated. Consistent with our downwardly-revised real GDP growth outlook, we have revised up our forecast for the unemployment rate. In addition, we have revised down our forecast for the yield levels of the Treasury 2- and 10-year securities. (See tables at the end of this commentary containing our current and April 28 forecasts.) If we are close to the mark on our second-half GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, we could envision another round of Fed quantitative easing commencing early in 2012 with no Fed policy interest rate hikes occurring until early 2013.
Thursday, June 09, 2011
QE2 Unmitigated Failure – The Bernanke Chronicles / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: James_Quinn
Our self proclaimed "expert" on the Great Depression, Ben Bernanke, seems to be feeling the pressure. His theories worked so well when he modeled them in his posh corner office at Princeton. He could saunter down the hallway and get his buddy Krugman to confirm his belief that the Federal Reserve was just too darn restrictive between 1929 and 1932, resulting in the first Great Depression. I wonder if there will be a future Federal Reserve Chairman, 80 years from now, studying how the worst Federal Reserve Chairman in history (not an easy feat) created the Greatest Depression that finally put an end to the Great American Military Empire. Bernanke spent half of his speech earlier this week trying to convince himself and the rest of the world that his extremist monetary policy of keeping interest rates at 0% for the last two years, printing money at an astounding rate, and purposely trying to devalue the US currency, had absolutely nothing to do with the surge in oil and food prices in the last year. Based on his scribbling since November of last year, it seems that Ben is trying to win his own Nobel Prize - for fiction.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 09, 2011
Greece Economic Reforms at a Standstill, Deficit is Widening, Bailout Payments on Hold / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
On May 28 Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou went into a temper tantrum over an article in Der Spiegel that stated Greece missed its financial targets.
Papaconstantinou noted the report was not even out yet adding, "I have every reason to believe they will end positively for our country and that we will receive the fifth tranche."
Thursday, June 09, 2011
U.S. May Employment Numbers Show Faults in Recovery / Economics / Employment
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
May’s employment report couldn’t come at a better time. As soon as the Fed officially ends its quantitative easing program, new jobs data shows that the recovery investors have long been waiting for is still out of reach.
At the most topical level, the employment report was dismal – ignoring the obvious manipulation of the figures with birth and death estimates, seasonal but unreliable adjustments, and revisions to the downside that have become frequent with old employment data, there is still a gem to be found tucked deep inside the numbers.
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Thursday, June 09, 2011
Different Measures of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Concern about imminent inflation is at the heart of criticism of the Fed's quantitative easing programs. Charts 1 and 2 depict recent trends of much tracked price gauges and the main take away from these charts is that inflation excluding food and energy are contained and higher energy prices have translated into only a less than proportionate increase in core prices.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Destruction of US Manufacturing, Confessions of an Economic Terrorist / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_Butter
Just in case anyone has an idea to dispatch seventy-two SEALS by helicopter to deliver me a tap-tap, like they did to that other guy, save your money, I’m a minnow.
If you want to know the real “culprits”, have a look at this chart:
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Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Deflationary Depression in America: The Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Deflation
By: Bob_Chapman
Wall Street seems to believe the waning recovery in the economy is only temporary and that further recovery is on the way. Such thinking can get you in serious trouble, unless QE3, or its equivalent, is on the way. It is on the way, as we pointed out 13 months ago. The economy cannot live and survive without it otherwise we could be looking at a minus 5% GDP for openers. Incidentally, there are those that believe that unemployment already is as bad as it was during the “Great Depression” years of thep930s. They may be correct, but we believe it was much higher than today’s 22.4% level. If government hadn’t created food stamps, Medicaid, extended unemployment benefits and other benefits, perhaps we could be close to 1930’s levels.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Fed Won't Admit to the Coming Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Despite what U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in his speech at the International Monetary Conference yesterday (Tuesday), it looks very much like we're headed for a double-dip recession.
Indeed, the economic reports of the last week or so demonstrate that the U.S. job machine was never really jump-started after the Great Recession of 2008-09.
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Wednesday, June 08, 2011
The Consumption Bust / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Fred_Sheehan
There is no end to the indicators showing the consumer is up against it. Negative home-equity, incomes, layoffs, food inflation - oh, this is tale of woe. And so, the plaintive cry: "Is this the bottom?" That seems doubtful, actually impossible, given the math.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011
Our Economic Future, Best to Worst Case / Economics / Global Economy
By: Casey_Research
Doug Casey, Casey Research writes: There is a great deal of uncertainty among investors about what the future of the U.S. economy may look like – so I decided to take a stab at what’s likely to happen over the next 20 years. That's enough time for a child to grow up and mature, and it's long enough for major trends to develop and make themselves felt.
Sunday, June 05, 2011
Policymakers Have Made Another Economic Depression Unavoidable / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
Equities markets have been battered all week by bad economic data sending investors piling into "risk free" Treasuries. The Dow Jones slipped 276 points on Wednesday followed by a 41 point loss on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury has ducked below 3 percent repeatedly signally a slowdown that could lead to another recession.
Sunday, June 05, 2011
Towards a Worldwide Inflationary Depression, Collapse of the Anglo-American Empire / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
According to our calculations we have been in an inflationary depression since February of 2009. Everyone looks back on the deflationary depression of the 1930s as a benchmark or a reference. As far as we are concerned the 1930’s depression only ended when the powers behind government arranged another war. Few talk about the recession of the early 1920s, which only lasted two years and was caused by the newly formed Fed, which financed US participation in World War I. They raised interest rates, which enticed citizens to save, which provided money for loans for research and expansion. The Fed, other than raising rates, stayed neutral, as did the Treasury. The result was the recession ended quickly. A bad story with a happy ending, which contributed to the roaring 20s, which the Fed eventually turned into a depression via their interference.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
Economic Whiplash, Eurozone Debt Crisis Intolerable Choices, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Worse Than Headlines / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Do you feel as if you are suffering from some sort of economic whiplash? Between focusing on the European crisis (and it is a crisis), then looking at softening data in the US and political turmoil in Japan, not to mention the Middle East, you can be forgiven for feeling like someone just slammed into the back of your "economic recovery car." This week we look at today's US employment numbers, then at a troubling slowing of economic velocity, precisely at a time when it should be rising, and then consider a powerhouse, must-be-read-twice commentary from Martin Wolf on the European situation. Then I will weigh in with some of my own thoughts. Counterintuitively, the holders of certain European debt are being put at further risk by the bailout. (This letter may be a little shorter and take more work than others -which some of you think will improve it - as I am suffering from Caesar's Revenge here in Tuscany, although I am getting better!)
Saturday, June 04, 2011
Railway Revolution Builds China’s Consumer Culture / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Frequent readers of my “Frank Talk” blog and the weekly Investor Alert should be familiar with the story of China’s high speed rails. We’ve previously discussed how China is building the world’s largest network of high speed rails at an incredible speed.