Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 08, 2011
U.S. Economy Endgame, Muddle Through or Debt Crisis? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week I finish the two-part letter on the Endgame and give you my thoughts on the economy and how it all plays out over the next five years. This is the second part of a speech I gave last week at the Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. It is a rather bold forecast, and fraught with peril and likely errors, but that is my job here. Damn the torpedoes, etc. I must offer one large caveat! If the facts change so will my forecast, but this is the view into my very cloudy crystal ball as I see it today. As always, remember that those of us in the forecasting world are often wrong but seldom in doubt. Read accordingly.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Global Economy, PMI, Employment Data and Monetary Policy Review / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: EconGrapher
This week we take a look at the Purchasing Manager Index data for the US and China. Then there's a review of the US employment report, before an overview of the employment data from New Zealand, we then wrap up with a review of some of the key monetary policy decisions over the past week.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Jump in U.S. Payroll Employment Stands Out / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.0% in April vs. 8.8% in March. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +244,000 in April vs. +221,000 in March. Private sector jobs increased 268,000 after a gain of 231,000 in March. Revisions for February and March and February resulted in a net gain of 46,000 jobs in the economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Africa Investor Profit Opportunities / Economics / Africa
By: Richard_Mills
Little was known about Africa's interior so early map makers would often leave this region blank. Today's investors may be the equivalent of yesterdays mapmakers.
Africa is a continent of opportunity.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 06, 2011
The Great Myth of the Inflation Cure / Economics / Inflation
By: Douglas_French
Parents probably dream of sending their kid to the University of Chicago. Next to the Ivy League or Stanford, the Chicago school is near the top of the heap. Only 27 percent of applicants are admitted. To be among the roughly 15,000 means prestige and an education to build a lifetime on. The cost for tuition and fees: $39,381. Room and board is another $12,000 or so. Add books and other stuff, and the total Chicago-school experience costs $54,290 a year.
Friday, May 06, 2011
Don’t Be Fooled By The Jobs Report! / Economics / Employment
By: Sy_Harding
This was a week that confirmed that the economic recovery has stalled.
We knew from the previous week that economic growth (GDP) slowed to just 1.8% in the March quarter from 3.1% in the December quarter.
Friday, May 06, 2011
Weak U.S. Credit Growth Early Sign of a Double-Dip Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
In spite of five straight quarters of loosening lending standards and strong U.S. credit growth data, actual loan growth in the U.S. economy is dangerously anemic.
What isn't apparent to investors is that the reason first-quarter gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth fell to 1.8% from the fourth quarter's more robust 3.1% rate is that loans and leases - which accounted for as much as 51.2% of U.S. GDP as recently as 2008 - fell to 45% of GDP in March.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 06, 2011
What Hyperinflation Looks Like / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Washingtons_Blog
Sweeping up pengő banknotes. Hungary, 1946.
Friday, May 06, 2011
U.S. Economy Crippled / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
Something happened in April that crippled the US economy. First it was the reports from four regional Fed manufacturing surveys showing a sharp slowdown in growth. Then weekly jobless claims began printing four handles each week with today's 474,000 on top of last week's 429,000. The real kicker was Wednesday's ISM Services that registered a very sharp drop off and now sits precariously close to contraction.
Friday, May 06, 2011
U.S. Economic Data to Ponder About Before the April Employment Report / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The April employment report is scheduled for publication Friday, May 6. An increase of 190,000 payroll jobs and a steady reading for the unemployment rate (8.8%) is our forecast. The consensus forecast is an increase of 200,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate. Nonfarm payrolls increased 216,000 in March, with the private sector accounting for a gain of 230,000 jobs. Private sector hiring has risen at an impressive clip in the February-March period (average of 235,000 jobs). Against this backdrop, the jobless claims numbers for the week ended April 30 were unexpected. Initial jobless claims rose 43,000 to 474,000 and the prior week's estimate was raised to 431,000 from 429,000.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
China's Economy Continues to Ascend But Watch Out for Speed Bumps, Investment Plays / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
Everyone knows that China's economy is hot. The only question is whether it may be a little too hot.
China posted yet another quarter of stellar economic growth in the first quarter of 2011, with its gross domestic product (GDP) growing 9.7%. However, analysts are worried about some of the side effects that have accompanied that growth- namely soaring inflation and the emergence of speculative bubbles.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 05, 2011
Consumer Credit Could Launch Inflationary Spiral / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Recent comments from Walmart chief executive Mike Duke have investors on high alert. This time, though, the news spreads well beyond Walmart.
At a company event in New York, Duke reminded the crowd that retail is softening, “we’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” and later added that it was rising fuel costs, just another component of monetary inflation, that was driving the sales loss. Of particular interest to inflation watchers should be his comments that were mostly ignored.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 05, 2011
ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Shows Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ISM non-manufacturing survey results point to slowing conditions in the service sector of the economy in April. The composite index declined to 52.8 in April from 57.3 in March. This is the second monthly decline and the lowest since July 2010 (see Chart 1). The composite index is made up of four equally weighted components. Of the four components, supplier deliveries advanced in April (53.0 vs. 51.5), while indexes tracking new orders (52.7 vs. 64.1 in March), business activity (53.7 vs. 59.7 in March) and employment (51.9 vs. 53.7) declined.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
Where is the Global Economy Headed? The Worst Is Yet to Come / Economics / Global Economy
By: Casey_Research
To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
Roy Furr: I'm writing today after spending the last three days in Boca Raton, Florida, attending The Next Few Years: A Casey Research Summit. If you're not already familiar, the purpose of this summit was to bring together many of the world's top economic and investing minds to share with us where they believe we're headed in the months and years ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Bin Laden's Death and U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pimco, appeared on Bloomberg Television today with Willow Bay from the Milken Conference in Los Angeles, where he discussed the effect of Bin Laden's death on the markets as well as the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
U.S. Economy Faces Domestic Economic Headwinds / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
If you watched the move Inside Job then you realized as it ended that we were in fact living the sequel. The movie is far from over. The problems are far from being addressed. The solutions may be close but the leadership needed is no where near.
Week after week I may sound like a broken record. Like someone who has missed the bull run and trying to defend lost opportunity. At some point this market will turn. Those who said they will get out at or near the top will again be proven wrong. Their paper profits will turn into paper losses and they will argue they "cannot afford to sell." What has frustrated the bears will one day frustrate the bulls.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Hyperinflation and Double-Dip Recession Ahead / Economics / HyperInflation
By: The_Gold_Report
Economic recovery? What economic recovery? Contrary to popular media reports, government economic reporting specialist and ShadowStats Editor John Williams reads between the government-economic-data lines. "The U.S. is really in the worst condition of any major economy or country in the world," he says. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John concludes the nation is in the midst of a multiple-dip recession and headed for hyperinflation.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
The Debt and Inflation Endgame Headwinds / Economics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
I have written repeatedly about the Endgame in the weekly letter, as well as in a New York Times best-seller on the same topic. By Endgame I mean the period of time in which many of the developed economies of the world will either willingly deleverage or be forced to do so. This age of deleveraging will produce a fundamentally different economic environment, which the McKinsey study referenced below suggests will last anywhere from 4-6 years. Now, whether this deleveraging is orderly, as now appears to be the case in Britain, or more resembles what I have long predicted will be a violent default in Greece, it will create a profoundly different economic world from the one we have lived in for 60 years. This makes sense, in that the prior world was defined by ever-increasing amounts of leverage. Outright reductions in leverage or even a significant slowing of the rate of growth is a whole new ballgame, economically speaking.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Has the Fed Decided to Fight Inflation Instead of Unemployment? / Economics / US Economy
By: Washingtons_Blog
William Alden writes in a Huffington Post liveblog entitled "Inflation Vs. Jobs":
Bernanke's argument about inflation isn't consistent, economist Paul Krugman says.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 30, 2011
U.S. Core Inflation Remains Contained, FOMC Policy Stance is Safe / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in March after an upwardly revised 0.5% jump in February. A 0.4% increase in outlays of services and a 0.1% jump in purchases of durables lifted consumer spending, with a 0.3% drop in expenditures of non-durables were a partial offset. Real consumer spending is projected to advance by 3.0% during the second quarter after a 2.7% gain in the first quarter.
Read full article... Read full article...