Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Loses Ground / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 58.5 in June from 61.7 in the prior month. The Expectations Index (72.4 vs. 76.6 in May) and the Present Situation Index (37.6 vs. 39.3) fell in June. The soft labor market situation and rising food energy prices have played a role in reducing optimism of consumers.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Economy and the Education Gap / Economics / Education
By: Fred_Sheehan
On June 22, 2011, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded a two-day meeting. This was followed by the obligatory press release. That statement was followed by a press conference featuring Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. CNBC, in the person of Maria Baritomo, interviewed three former FOMC members later in the day:
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011
3-D Economic Hurricane of Debt, Deficits and Demographics Heading for All Developed Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Today's Outside the Box is from an old friend, but one who is new to my readers. Jason Hsu is a partner at Research Affiliates and helped create the Fundamental Indexes with Rob Arnott. Starting at Cal Tech, he went on to a PhD in economics,and is now a professor at UCLA and teaches in China and Taiwan. Wins all sorts of awards and has won the Rising Star of HedgeFunds award. In short, he is really smart.
He sent me this piece last week, and I asked if I could use it. He graciously acceded. It is on what Jason and Rob call "the3-D Hurricane of Debt, Deficits and Demographics."
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011
U.S. May Consumer Spending Augurs Poorly for 2011:Q2 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending fell 0.13% in May following a downwardly revised 0.06% drop in the prior month. Rising gasoline prices have adversely affected consumer spending; purchases of gasoline (nominal) declined in May, the first decline since November. Purchases of cars have dropped for three consecutive months, reflecting the supply chain problem from the natural disaster in Japan that has reduced the availability of cars (see Chart 2).
Monday, June 27, 2011
Can the Fed and Economists Forecast the Future? / Economics / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: EWI
Business Talk Radio host Gabriel Wisdom recently spoke with Pete Kendall, Co-Editor of EWI's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Their discussion included a crucial but rarely asked question about economists and the Federal Reserve. Here's the relevant excerpt:
Monday, June 27, 2011
Inflation Asides / Economics / Inflation
By: Fred_Sheehan
A note from a reader: In 1977 I accidentally ran into a high school friend of mine who had taken an advanced degree in mathematics and statistical analysis. He was working for [Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur] Burn's Fed. He informed me that he was working on a new methodology of calculating the inflation rate. When I asked what it was based on he demurred saying it was "Classified Secret." I was truly stunned. He did imply that, when done, the new methodology would greatly reduce the reported value. Sure enough, during the Volcker Fed, the new methodology was introduced and has been modified since then to greatly reduce the reported numbers. It made the Volcker effort at controlling inflation seem much more effective than it actually was.
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Monday, June 27, 2011
Deflation by Dictatorship / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
There are two major considerations for the nation's economic and financial health as we enter the second half of 2011. Each can be addressed in the form of a question: 1.) Will the Federal Reserve embark on a third attempt at stimulating economic recovery through money printing; and 2.) Has the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 peaked, and further, what will happen to the financial market once the 6-year cycle peaks in October? We'll attempt to answer both of these questions in the following commentary.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Chinese Economy Sputtering, Where Did the Trade Surplus Go? / Economics / China Economy
By: Washingtons_Blog
It was tempting to believe that China was different. With its command and control economy with some of the trappings of free market capitalism, trillions in reserves, and abundant natural resources, many thought that China would "decouple" from the Western world's problems and sail into a prosperous future. However, despite its long history, exotic names and seemingly strong position, China cannot avoid the rules of economics which have applied to all countries throughout history.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Greece Debt Crisis Long-term Solution E.U. Unification Under One Leader? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: James_Loong
As Papandreou, Greek PM, plans to put together another austerity package worth more than €6.5 billion ($9.3 billion) by the end of the month, the protesters outside the parliament building, unwilling to accept the prime minister’s course of action, shouted: “Thieves, traitors. What happened to our money?”
Friday, June 24, 2011
U.S. Jobless Claims, Firms Remain Reluctant to Increase Payrolls / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 429,000 during the week ended June 18. The four-week moving average held steady at 426,250. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell slightly to 3.697 million from 3.698 million people. The four-week moving average of continuing claims edged down to 3.709 million from 3.714 million.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 24, 2011
U.S. Dollar Repatriation and Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Jeff_Lewis
It’s starting to look like the corporate world will soon get another pass from Congress on paying its international tax bill. Last proposed and passed in 2005, a dollar repatriation holiday would allow companies to bring dollars on overseas back to the United States with only a 5.25% tax rate.
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Thursday, June 23, 2011
Stealth QE3 Comes to Fruition, Soaring Inflation is Next / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did what most everyone expected yesterday (Wednesday) at the culmination of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day meeting - he left average Americans vulnerable to the pangs of higher prices and soaring inflation.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
U.S. Horrific National Debt, Are You Prepared For The Coming Economic Collapse And The Next Great Depression? / Economics / US Debt
By: Chris_Kitze
Michael Synder writes: It really is hard to find the words to describe the true horror of the national debt. The U.S. government has been on the greatest debt binge in all of human history, and a day of reckoning is coming that is going to be so painful that it is going to shock America to the core. We have lived so far above our means for so long that none of us really has any concept of what "normal" is like anymore. The United States has enjoyed the greatest party in the history of the world, but now this decades-old party is ending and the bills are coming due. It was Dick Cheney who famously said that "deficits don't matter". Well, try telling that to the nation of Greece right about now. The horror that Greece is just beginning to experience is a preview of what is going to happen to us as well. Only when it happens to us it is going to be so much worse, because when we go down we are going to bring the entire global financial system down with us.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Europe and America and the The Global Debt Crisis / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: LEAP
On December 15, 2010, in the GEAB N°50, LEAP/E2020 anticipated the explosion of Western government debt (1) in the second half of 2011. We were then describing a process that would start with the European government debt crisis and then set fire to the heart of the global financial system, namely US federal debt (2). And here we are with this issue at the start of the second half of 2011, with a global economy in complete disarray (3), an increasingly unstable global monetary system (4) and financial centres in desperate straits (5), all this despite the thousands of billions of public money invested to avoid precisely this type of situation. The insolvency of the global financial system, and of the Western financial system in the first place, returns again to the front of the stage after just over a year of political cosmetics aimed at burying this fundamental problem under truckloads of cash.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Stocks, Demographics, Sovereign Debt and Global Food Prices Economic Report / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week's Outside the Box is from one of the more interesting thinkers and observers of the markets I know, Simon Hunt. When we get together in London, conversations are lively, as we don't always see eye to eye; but we can always discuss, in a very civil manner, the affairs of the world. This particular piece is wide-ranging and thought-provoking. Simon is always ready to apply actual times to his predictions, and he has held steady on them for years.
Monday, June 20, 2011
U.S. Economy 2011 Mid Year Forecast Update / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Stathis
The story remains pretty much unchanged relative to what I have been discussing over the past several months.
Throughout our research publications I have been pointing to the impressive earnings from U.S. corporations. I have also noted numerous upward revisions in 2011 EPS, which of course implies a higher stock market. As a consequence, I have been bullish throughout this, as well as over the previous year. At the same time, I discussed my expectations of a weaker economy in the second half of the year.
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Monday, June 20, 2011
How An Economy Collapses / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Dr_Martenson
Chris Martenson: Welcome to another ChrisMartenson.com podcast. I am Chris Martenson your host today as usual. Today we’re speaking with Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre author of Surviving the Economic Collapse. FerFAL experienced the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina’s economy in 2001 and has since dedicated his professional career, like I have, to educating the public about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. Given the rising concerns that we all have today about the future of fiat currencies, our listeners are increasingly asking to hear from voices that have firsthand experience with extreme currency devaluation, what it means, how it actually feels, how it plays out. So we’re very fortunate FerFAL is able to join us today from his home in Argentina. We’re going to be discussing the signs that preceded the collapse in his country and what has defined the society since, including smart moves to take if worried about a similar fate happened in one’s own country and how would you know where you are in the story as it unfolds. So FerFAL, we’re so glad to have you with us today.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
How to Protect Yourself From the Debt Crisis Second Recession / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Videos
Jim Rogers On The Ratigan Show, Tells Viewers To Get Ready To Protect Themselves.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
U.S. Economic Contraction And The Pending Greek Debt Default / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Tony_Pallotta
This week saw further confirmation of a deteriorating US economy as both the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys continued their reversals and showed outright contraction. What was viewed by many as a soft patch indeed is much deeper.
Additionally retail sales contracted showing the consumer to be weaker than economists and markets had predicted. Of the four GDP components the consumer was the only one showing strength yet as witnessed by the Q1 GDP revision they in fact are not strong.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Market Assessment of Inflation Has Changed / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% in May from the previous month and moved up 1.5% on a year-over-year basis and which leaves the Fed less comfortable than it has been in the past few months.Read full article... Read full article...