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Category: Employment

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, April 04, 2015

U.S. Jobs Report Huge Miss, +126k Half Forecasts / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Initial Reaction

For a huge change we see the existing pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey has been replaced by weakness all around.

Last month I stated "The household survey varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?"

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Economics

Saturday, March 07, 2015

U.S. Employment Trends - What Age Groups Get the Jobs? / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

One interesting fact in today's jobs report (see Diving Into the Payroll Report: Establishment +295K Jobs; Household +96K Employment, Labor Force -178K) was a drop in teenage unemployment of 1.7 percentage points while overall the unemployment rate fell by only 0.2 percentage points.

The only reason the overall rate fell was a plunge in labor force of 178,000. Household survey employment only rose by 96,000 vs. the establishment survey gain of an alleged +295,000.

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Economics

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Why the U.S. Workforce Still Shrinks as Job Growth Rises / Economics / Employment

By: EWI

A significant hint of economic softening is the slight decline in average hourly earnings in December. It came despite "a healthy 252,000 increase in jobs. Economists are struggling to explain the phenomenon," says the Associated Press. "I can't find a plausible empirical or theoretical explanation for why hourly wages would drop when for nine months we've been adding jobs at a robust pace," says a perplexed economist.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Unemployment May Be Down, but Our Future Looks Like a Disaster / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Finally, things are better, right?

I’m talking about the Friday employment numbers, not the election.

Though they do have something in common. I’ll get to that.v

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2014

The Biggest Threat to U.S. Jobs: “The Contestability Nightmare” / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

Today’s Outside the Box comes from Sam Rines of Chilton Capital Management in Houston, TX – a promising young economics contributor to The National Interest and a rising star who I met at Worth Wray’s wedding a few weeks ago.

Worth and Sam have developed quite the friendship over the past several months, but it didn’t take much convincing from Worth to get me to share Sam’s latest article with you. Sam’s work speaks for itself and I am VERY impressed by his insights on a wide range of economic issues – from the evolution of Fed policy and growing risk of a rising US dollar, to the long-awaited industrialization of India.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

The Fed’s New Labor-Market Measure / Economics / Employment

By: Frank_Shostak

Economists at the Federal Reserve have devised a new indicator, which they hold will enable US central bank policymakers to get better information regarding the state of the labor market. The metric is labeled as the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

Note that one of the key data points Fed policymakers are paying attention to is the labor market. The state of this market dictates the type of monetary policy that is going to be implemented.

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Economics

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Employers Aren’t Just Whining: The “Skills Gap” Is Real / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

Paul Krugman and other notables dismiss the notion of a skills gap, though employers continue to claim they’re having trouble finding workers with the skills they need. And if you look at the evidence one way, Krugman et al. are right. But this week an interesting post on the Harvard Business Review Blog Network by guest columnist James Bessen suggests that employers may not just be whining, they may really have a problem filling some kinds of jobs.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

This past week several reports came across my desk highlighting both the good news and the bad news about the future of automation and robotics. There are those who think that automation and robotics are going to be a massive destroyer of jobs and others who think that in general humans respond to shifts in employment opportunities by creating new opportunities.

As I’ve noted more than once, in the 1970s (as it seemed that our jobs were disappearing, never to return), the correct answer to the question, “Where will the jobs come from?” was “I don’t know, but they will.” That was more a faith-based statement than a fact-based one, but whole new categories of jobs did in fact get created in the ’80s and ’90s.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Not As Much Labor Force Slack as Yellen Believes / Economics / Employment

By: EconMatters

Fed Moving Targets

The Fed keeps moving their targets when they originally thought it was a good idea to provide forward guidance for markets, then when that guidance was met, they started moving the targets in order to justify pumpingmore liquidity and stimulus into the financial system for the benefit of the Big Banks.

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Economics

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Jobs Report Not as Positive for the Economy as Some Think / Economics / Employment

By: Sy_Harding

The jobs report for June was super good news. There were 288,000 new jobs created, and the unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6.1%. The consensus forecast was for only 215,000 new jobs.

On the negative side, analysts are warning that with the economy accelerating so strongly, the Federal Reserve will have to begin raising interest rates sooner than expected to prevent the economy from over-heating and creating excessive inflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

U.S. Jobs Optimism Bias Squared / Economics / Employment

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Oh yeah, sure, optimism is oozing from every single one of America’s pores. Or so they’ll have you believe. 281,000 new jobs says the ADP report, most since December 2012. Of which small business added 117,000 and medium sized business 115,000. And the media are just besides themselves with joy. Shame that the markets react lukewarm at best. Then again, they do better the worse the news gets, all they reflect anymore these days is the level of distortion and convolution that they obey (or is that the other way around?).

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

U.S. Employment Exceeds Pre-Recession Peak, but Hold the Cheers… / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Diane Alter writes: The May jobs report had the potential to pass for decent, but then we looked at the labor force participation rate...

Employers added 217,000 jobs in May, leading the labor market to the milestone of recovering all the jobs lost at the depths of the Great Recession. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained flat at 6.3%, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday. Both figures were in line with consensus forecasts of a 220,000 gain and an unchanged rate.

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Economics

Sunday, June 08, 2014

More Phantom U.S. Jobs Created–All In The Wrong Places / Economics / Employment

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

Education is not the answer

Last April I saw a report that 83% of May’s college graduates did not have a job. I remarked that in my day most of us had 2 or 3 job or graduate school offers before we graduated. The latest payroll jobs report issued on June 6 proves that the April report was true.

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Economics

Saturday, June 07, 2014

U.S. Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and Recession Risk / Economics / Employment

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. My focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

The U.S. Jobs Market is Gaining Traction / Economics / Employment

By: EconMatters

Claims Data

The Jobless claims data came out on Thursday and the trend is still in place and bodes well for the May Employment Report coming out next Friday as jobless claims fell sharply in the May 24 week, down 27,000 to 300,000. The 4-week average is down a significant 11,250 to a new recovery low of 311,500. Continuing claims are also down, falling 17,000 in data for the May 17 week to a new recovery low of 2.631 million. The 4-week average is down 33,000 to 2.655 million, also a recovery low. The unemployment rate for insured workers, also at a recovery low, came in at 2.0 percent. Notice a pattern here, new recovery low, new recovery low, and new recovery low.

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