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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Inflating Assest Prices - Why the Wealth Effect Doesn’t Work / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Chris Casey writes: Higher equity prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can spur spending. — Ben Bernanke, 2010[1]

Across all financial media, between both political parties, and among most mainstream economists, the “wealth effect” is noted, promoted, and touted. The refrain is constant and the message seemingly simple: by increasing people wealth through rising stock and housing prices, the populace will increase their consumer spending which will spur economic growth. Its acceptance is as widespread as its justification is important, for it provides the rationale for the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary expansion since 2008. While critics may dispute the wealth effect’s magnitude, few have challenged its conceptual soundness.[2] Such is the purpose of this article. The wealth effect is but a mantra without merit.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Soros Warns Europe Faces 25 Years of Stagnation; Ukraine a Wake-Up Call - Video / Economics / European Union

By: Bloomberg

Billionaire investor George Soros discusses the crisis in Ukraine and Europe with Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua and said, Europe faces 25 years of Japanese-style stagnation unless politicians pursue further integration of the currency bloc and change policies that have discouraged banks from lending, "[Europe] may not survive 25 years of stagnation. You have to go further with the integration. You have to solve the banking problem, because Europe is lagging behind the rest of the world in sorting out its banks."

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Economics

Sunday, March 09, 2014

Robert Johnson: New Perspectives For Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jesse

Some of Johnson's remarks are extraordinarily insightful.

I enjoyed his comments on the modern preoccupation with modeling. But I do think his looking back to the Thirty Years War for the trend towards abstract theory over the empirical method in general is a bit of a stretch. But it was kind of cool to think about it.

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Economics

Sunday, March 09, 2014

Economic Myth Busters – The Minimum Wage / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

It has been quite some time since we did a ‘Myth Busters’, even though there obviously remains quite a bit of mythology. So we’re going to chop away at it piece by piece and demonstrate once again that the media, government, and what I like to the call the ‘establishment’ (which is the concatenation of the aforementioned and the banksters) couldn’t give a rip about the truth. The establishment only cares about what is expedient and convenient for itself.

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Economics

Saturday, March 08, 2014

Weakening U.S. Economy Weather or Not? / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Everyone agrees that the winter just now winding down (hopefully) has been brutal for most Americans. And while it's easy to conclude that the Polar Vortex has been responsible for an excess of school shutdowns and ice related traffic snarls, it's much harder to conclude that the it's responsible for the economic vortex that appears to have swallowed the American economy over the past three months. But this hasn't stopped economists, Fed officials, and media analysts from making this unequivocal assertion. In reality the weather is not what's ailing us. It's just the latest straw being grasped at by those who believe that the phony recovery engineered by the Fed is real and lasting. The April thaw is not far off. Unfortunately the economy is likely to stay frozen for some time to come.

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Economics

Friday, March 07, 2014

Long Term Change from Average Earnings Growth above RPI to AEI below RPI / Economics / Earnings

By: Jonathan_Davis

There are many reasons why the evidence is building that we, in the West, may be #TurningJapanese (it’s a Twitterese I coined). Japan experienced deflation for over 20 years, had a generational depression and stocks and property fell 80%, from 1989 to 2012.

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Economics

Thursday, March 06, 2014

How Inflation Destroys the Wealth of Nations / Economics / Inflation

By: Joseph_T_Salerno

Brendan Brown is a rara avis — a practicing financial economist and shrewd observer of financial markets, players, and policies, whose prolific writings are informed by profound theoretical insight. Dr. Brown writes in plain English yet can also turn a phrase with the best. “Monetary terror” vividly and succinctly characterizes the policy of the Fed and the ECB (European Central Bank) to deliberately create inflationary expectations in markets for goods and services as a cure for economic contraction; the “virus attack” of asset price inflation well describes the unforeseeable suddenness, timing, and point of origin of asset price increases caused by central bank manipulation of long-term interest rates and the unpredictable and erratic path the inflation takes through the various asset markets both domestically and abroad.

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Economics

Thursday, March 06, 2014

What Needs to Happen Before We See a Big Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: F_F_Wiley

In a Bloomberg article last May, Caroline Baum summed up the economy nicely in a single question:

Four-and-a-half years of an overnight rate near zero and aggressive securities purchases by the Fed have succeeded in raising asset prices. The question is whether higher asset prices will deliver jobs and economic growth before they become destabilizing.

In other words, will the real economy mend before excessive financial risk-taking kills the patient?

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Economics

Wednesday, March 05, 2014

Bastiat's Paradox, Broken Windows, Deficit Spending And War / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Frederic Bastiat's early 19th century paradox is easy to recycle today. If the West, we mean a certain small number of gung-ho steroid-fed European politicians and their lookalikes in the USA, decided to borrow and spend what it takes to “call a war” with Putin's Russia to defend the Crimea against the violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity, would the net economic result be win-win or lose-lose?

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Economics

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

U.S. Real Disposable Income Per Capita Analysis / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: This morning I posted my latest Big Four update, which included today’s release of the January data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments. Now let’s take a closer look at a rather different calculation of incomes: “Real” Disposable Personal Income Per Capita.

The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator has been significantly disrupted by the bizarre but not unexpected oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013.

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Economics

Monday, March 03, 2014

Anti-Logic and the Keynesian Economic “Stimulus” / Economics / Economic Theory

By: William_Anderson

American political culture always seems to be “celebrating” the anniversary of something, be it JFK’s assassination (we just passed the 50th anniversary of that sad event) or the signing of some (mostly bad) legislation. The latest political activity to be enshrined with an anniversary is the so-called stimulus, the $800 billion monstrosity passed five years ago ostensibly to “put America back to work.”

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Economics

Monday, March 03, 2014

Is Bad Weather Behind Weak US Economic Trends? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Some key US economic data shows visible weakening. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index slumped to 46 in February from 56 in January.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Empire State general business conditions index fell to 4.48 in February from 12.51 the month before.

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Economics

Saturday, March 01, 2014

What Can Nations Learn from Norway and Kuwait in Managing Sovereign Wealth Funds? / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

To begin with what are Sovereign Wealth Funds? According to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, a SWF can be defined as follows.

“A Sovereign Wealth Fund entity is a state-owned investment fund established from balance of payment surpluses, official foreign exchange operations, the proceeds from privatizations, governmental transfer payments, fiscal surpluses and/or receipts resulting from resource exports”

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Economics

Saturday, March 01, 2014

Do U.S. Economic Reports Mean Anything This Time? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Some of the Federal Reserve’s districts compile and release monthly economic reports for their regions.

In the last week or two, those reports were that the Fed’s Empire State (NY) Mfg Index plunged from 12.5 in January to 4.5 in February. The Fed’s Philadelphia Region Index plunged from a positive reading of + 9.4 in January to - 6.3 in February. The Dallas Fed’s Mfg Index dropped from 3.8 in January to 0.3 in February. The Richmond Fed’s Index plummeted from +12 in January to -6 in February.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

The High Price of Delaying the Debt Default / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Thorsten_Polleit

Credit is a wonderful tool that can help advance the division of labor, thereby increasing productivity and prosperity. The granting of credit enables savers to spread their income over time, as they prefer. By taking out loans, investors can implement productive spending plans that they would be unable to afford using their own resources.

The economically beneficial effects of credit can only come about, however, if the underlying credit and monetary system is solidly based on free-market principles. And here is a major problem for today’s economies: the prevailing credit and monetary regime is irreconcilable with the free market system.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Reviving the ‘Real World’ Scenario That’s Disappeared from Government Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Submissions

F. Wiley writes: For 50 years or so the federal government has deliberately and to an increasing extent misstated probable future budget deficits. Democrats and Republicans are guilty. The White House is guilty. And so is Congress. Private firms that deliberately misrepresent their financial statements in this fashion would be guilty of a crime… The magnitude of the misrepresentation is breathtaking. - Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole, writing in the Wall Street Journal last April

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Economics

Monday, February 24, 2014

Disappointing U.S. Economic Data - Whether or Not it's the Weather / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street and Washington have summarily dismissed the recent spate of disappointing economic data by claiming it is solely based upon the weather. The equity market is 100% convinced that winter is to blame for the faltering economy; and that even if stocks have it all wrong, Ms. Yellen and co. will immediately print enough money to make everything ok.

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Economics

Sunday, February 23, 2014

The US Great Depression 1920/21 / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Jonathan_Davis

Never heard of it?

Come on sure you have. You know of the Great Depression of the 1930s. So you must know of the Great Depression of 1920/21.

No?

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Economics

Friday, February 21, 2014

U.S. Economy Weather Impact Narrative Getting Confusing / Economics / US Economy

By: Ronan_Keenan

The “weather impact” debate has been ongoing for much of this year and looks set to continue for a while longer. Initially there seemed to be a clear narrative that colder-than-normal temperatures were slowing economic activity and markets seemed to gladly discount weak figures. But several data releases this week have brought confusion to the tidy story.

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Economics

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Deadly Deflation Myths / Economics / Deflation

By: Dan_Amerman

As will be demonstrated herein, using both historical and present-day events, key aspects of current deflationary theory can be characterized as the combination of 1) an absurdity; 2) a misunderstanding; and 3) an oversimplification; all working together to create 4) a serious danger for investors.

Few questions are of greater concern for investors than:  "will it be inflation or deflation that will dominate the coming years?" 

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