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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, February 06, 2011

If Friday's U.S. Employment Data Confused You... / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article... this story via AP should help 'clear' it up.  There remains a lot of confusion even by economists who follow this stuff for a living.  Essentially the larger story is traditional businesses are not hiring at pace so large swathes of America are either (a) dropping out of the workforce or (b) becoming self employed.  Hence the new workers in category b respond affirmatively when the household survey calls and asks "are you working?".  Even if working means selling some of those old Beanie Babies on their new fangled Ebay store. 

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Economics

Saturday, February 05, 2011

The Burden of Lower Economic Growth and Frequent Recessions / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"My best guess is that we'll have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific. Even though technically we'll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress." -- Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a Q&A at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

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Economics

Saturday, February 05, 2011

U.S. January Employment Report Suggests Continutation of Fed Easy Monetary Policy Stance / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe January employment report includes special factors, so the format of today's commentary is different from the procedure we follow for each month's employment report.  The comment starts with a discussion of the special factors, followed by a conclusion, and ends with an analysis of customary details. 

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Economics

Saturday, February 05, 2011

U.S. Labor Force and Unemployment Statistical BS / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI had no idea what to expect in today's jobs report. ADP projected 187,000 jobs but has been wildly off numbers reported by the BLS. Economists expected +146,000 jobs. The actual establishment survey report shows +36,000.

I knew huge revisions and methodology changes were coming this month would make gaming the report a crap-shoot. However, the amazing thing in the jobs report was not the number of jobs, but the statistical sleight-of-hand in the unemployment rate.

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Economics

Friday, February 04, 2011

The Cause and Evidence of Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a heated debate on the February 1st episode of CNBC's "The Kudlow Report", financial commentator Donald Luskin offered his "textbook" definition of inflation as "an overall rise in the general price level." I countered with the "dictionary" definition. My 1988 edition of Webster's Dictionary defines inflation as follows: "An increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods, resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in the general price level." [Emphasis added.] These differences are not academic and go a long way toward explaining why economists argue so vociferously.

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Economics

Friday, February 04, 2011

The Euro Debt Crisis and Economic Theory / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Kel_Kelly

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThroughout the last year, European debt problems have been cited as a threat to both the euro and to the American economy, among other entities. While many correct assertions have been made concerning the potential impact of a European debt implosion, there have also been many ill-conceived ones. It is often faulty economic theory that leads to faulty conclusions. This article revisits economic theory — from a free-market perspective — as it relates to the current European monetary challenges.

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Economics

Friday, February 04, 2011

Initial Jobless Claims Decline, Assessment of Labor Market Little Changed / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 42,000 during the week ended January 29 to 415,000, reversing nearly the entire 54,000 jump recorded in the prior week. The Labor Department has indicated that declines in initial jobless claims were from states who reported storm-related increases in the prior week. Inclement weather in several states this week suggests that additional backlogs due to bad weather are likely to distort readings once again. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell 84,000 to 3.925 million. Claims filed under special programs, which lag initial jobless claims by two weeks, show a small drop for the week ended January 15 (4.55 million vs. 4.69 million for week ended January 8, see Chart 8).

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Economics

Friday, February 04, 2011

The Greater Depression Smoot-Hawley Redux / Economics / Protectionism

By: James_Quinn

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the Greater Depression continues along a parallel pathway with the Great Depression of the 1930s, Congress is about to commit the same blunder it made in 1930. The rocket scientists in the House of Representatives in September passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, which aims to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation by targeting imports from China and other countries with currencies that are perceived to be undervalued.

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Economics

Thursday, February 03, 2011

Inflationary Indications of the Broadest Measure of Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply

By: Richard_Daughty

The Gold Report interviewed John Williams of ShadowStats.com, who said, "I continue to track M3, the Fed's broadest measure of the money supply until it ceased publication in March of 2006. Generally, the broader the measure of systemic liquidity, the better it serves as a predictor. In terms of giving a signal for the economy, you have to adjust the growth for inflation."

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Economics

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

The Economic “Recovery” in Consumer Loans Isn’t Real / Economics / US Economy

By: Casey_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBud Conrad, The Casey Report writes: The amount of loans being provided by our banking system is a good reflector of the strength of our economy. Below is a big-picture view that shows the total loans in the U.S. as the Fed reports in its H.8 each week. We can see that loans outstanding declined at a rapid rate at the beginning of the current great recession, but there seems to be a recovery in the little jump at the end of the chart, as highlighted by the two small black arrows. A little closer look shows that the Consumer Loans segment is the source of the optimism that we see in the total.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

How the US Government Manipulates Inflation Data / Economics / Inflation

By: PhilStockWorld

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe PCE bothered me yesterday.

The Government told us that the PCE core price index for December was 0% - no inflation at all.  I found that to be incredible - as in not credible at all and then Tusked asked me how long the Bernank could keep justifying his rampant money printing with fake government data, to which I responded: "I had many derogatory things to say about that but I was literally so sickened by that BS that I couldn’t bring myself to comment on it so I just left it alone but it’s a very sad joke that our government can tell us that there was no inflation in December while the whole planet is falling apart, isn’t it?"  

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Economics

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

India a Foreign Investors Paradise, Devastating Impacts of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement / Economics / India

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKavaljit Singh writes: Under the proposed India-EU free trade agreement, the European Commission (EC) has sought an expansive mandate to negotiate on investment issues on the behalf of the European Union. On January 20, 2011, the EC officially made recommendations to the European Council seeking modifications in the negotiating directives for the trade agreement with India.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Inflation is Here to Stay / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

In current economic analysis, inflation is largely in the eye of the beholder, and depending on how you choose to look, very different stories emerge. In the U.S., food and beverages count for just 16.4% of the CPI calculation. The Chinese apparently believe that the basic necessities of life should count for more, assigning a 33% weight to the nutritional components. These differences in measurement are partially responsible for the divergent inflation climate in both countries, and make most people believe that inflation is fickle and localized. From my perspective, inflation is a global wave that will ultimately swamp all shores.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

China’s Inflation Rate Nudges U.S. Retailers to Look to Other Asian Suppliers / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: China's inflation rate is climbing faster than expected, triggering a wave of price increases across the country and spurring foreign companies to search elsewhere for suppliers.

China's consumer price index hit 4.6% in December and 5.1% in November - it's highest level in 28 months. Annual inflation for 2010 was 3.3%, which is above the government's 3% target rate.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Could China Be Forced To Bring A New Global Recession by 2015? / Economics / China Economy

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg on Sunday, Jan. 30 cited a 28-page report--The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History (pdf file below)--by Barrie Wilkinson, a London-based partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

The report describes a scenario--spanned 2013 to 2015--when Western QE-induced inflation brings down China, creating a debt crisis in the commodity sector--inclusive of resource-dependent countries as well as commodity producers--which eventually plunge the world into another recession, and a new world order by 2015.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Japan Learns to Live with Deflation, If Only Analysts Could Figure Out How / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn Japan, wages are lower, but so are prices for goods and services, even food. Japan's companies are devising ways to profit from deflation, says Bloomberg writer Aki Ito in Japan Learns to Live with Deflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

The Fed and Job Creation / Economics / Central Banks

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Unemployment continues to plague our economy. In spite of constant claims that we have just turned the corner into recovery, the jobs reports remain grim with no real signs of improvement. While Keynesian economists and big government apologists scratch their heads about persistent unemployment in spite of unprecedented government "investment" in the economy, free market economists understand the problem perfectly well. In short, they understand that we are looking to the Federal Reserve to solve an unemployment crisis that the Fed itself largely created.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Dismantling John Williams’ Hyperinflation Predictions / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Mike_Stathis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you look around on the various gold bug web sites, you are likely to see the same crowd posting the same lines of hyperinflation and everything else they can conjure up in order to scare people into loading up on excessive amounts of physical gold. Note the emphasis on “physical gold” rather than gold ETFs.

Never mind that gold has very little utility. Never mind that physical gold is not considered a liquid asset. Never mind that gold hacks are financially tied into rising gold prices and therefore have a financial interest in pumping up the price of gold. You should buy gold and hold it because it’s going to continue to rise in price as the end of the dollar nears, right?  Not so fast.

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Economics

Monday, January 31, 2011

PopCon: The ‘Economic Recovery’ Lie / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: James_West

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is only human to seek reasons for optimism, and to find comfort in self-delusion. “You’re going to be just fine,” is probably one of the most frequent lies told among family members when serious injury or illness occurs. We have to believe we’re going to be “just fine”, because the alternative is too painful, and painfully unacceptable.

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Economics

Sunday, January 30, 2011

U.S. Real Statistical Economic Recovery, Bubble Complacency / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Recent GDP Numbers – A Real Statistical Recovery
Consumer Spending Rose? Where Was the Income?
A Bubble in Complacency
Egypt

This week I had the privilege of being on the same panel with former Comptroller General David Walker and former Majority Leader (and presidential candidate) Richard Gephardt. A Democrat to the left of me and a self-declared nonpartisan to the right, stuck in the middle and not knowing where the unrehearsed conversation would take us. As it turned out, to a very interesting conclusion, which is the topic of this week's letter. By way of introduction to those not familiar with them, David M. Walker (born 1951) served as United States Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008, and is now the Founder and CEO of the Comeback America Initiative. Gephardt served in Congress for 28 years, was House Majority Leader from 1989 to 1995 and Minority Leader from 1995 to 2003, running for president in 1988 and 2004.

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