Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Declining Trend of US Exports Warrants Close Watching / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. widened to $47.75 billion in November from $43.27 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports of goods and services have dropped for two consecutive months, while exports of goods adjusted for fell 1.5% in November after posting gains in each of the two prior months. Imports of goods and services also advanced in November. The October-November data imply that a widening of the trade deficit in the fourth quarter is a negative for GDP growth.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Global Aging Represents a Threat to World's Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: Barry_Elias
Sixty years ago, 34 developed nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had seven workers to support each retiree.
Today, there are only four workers per beneficiary.
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Friday, January 13, 2012
Keynesian Death By Debt Continues / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Debt constrains one's enjoyment of life. Without debt to repay, we could use our incomes solely for the pursuit of the good life. You get to define of what that consists, be it food and wine, debauchery or charitable deeds. With debt, life is miserable. Greece has learned that lesson. Spain and Portugal now know that. Those that lost their homes due to the bursting of the Federal Reserve's housing bubble know that. Seems just about everyone but Keynesian economists hiding in their academic cloisters, free of the real world, are fully aware of economic death through debt.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Euroland Factory Sector Posts Decline, Confirming Expectations of a Recession / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Asha_Bangalore
The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen to watch and wait and did not take action after today’s meeting. The ECB has lowered the policy rate in the last two meetings to 1.00% from 1.50%. A preliminary report has indicated that real GDP of Germany contracted in the fourth quarter and German industrial production fell sharply in November.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 13, 2012
Increase in Initial U.S. Jobless Claims Could be a Timing Issue / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 24,000 to 399,000 during the first week of the year. Timing could be playing role in the large increase of initial jobless claims. The four-week moving average at 381,750 will be tracked closely to estimate if the recent downward trend of initial jobless claims has been reversed or if it is beginning of the year distortion. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, moved up 19,000 to 3.628 million.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 13, 2012
U.S. Retail Sales Strong Q4, But Underlying Momentum is Slowing / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose only 0.1% in December, after a 0.4% jump in November. The strong performance of retail sales in November and December has given a lift to total retail sales in the fourth quarter. It is nearly certain that consumer spending in the fourth quarter (+2.5%, forecast) will exceed that of the third quarter (+1.7%).
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
United States Coming Greek Moment, Collapse, No. Huge Losses, Guaranteed / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
I did a search on Google for "economic collapse" and "2011." I got over 7 million hits.
I read a short piece on the probability of social collapse. The author argues that complex systems require more energy. At some point, there is not enough energy to sustain the system. Then it collapses.
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
Tracking China’s Imports and Germany’s Exports / Economics / China Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Imports of China slowed to a 10.7% year-over-year growth in December 2011 (see Chart 1), the smallest increase since late-2009. Imports of China from Germany, the driver of economic growth in Europe, have posted a significant slowing, with the December increase amounting a paltry 4.2%, the smallest gain since October 2009. The broader implication of these trends is that not only is German business activity hit by a deceleration of imports of China but the intricate web of world trade has a wide reach and will translate into a setback in business conditions among other trading partners.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Fed Dismisses U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed is becoming more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery, just as the economy looks to be gaining momentum. The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.4% in December of 2010, to 8.5% twelve months later. The American economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the past year, according to the establishment survey of employment, while the household survey shows we have averaged a monthly gain of 230,000 jobs over the past six months. Meanwhile, the average work week and hourly earnings also showed improvement in the December Nonfarm payroll report. In addition, Gross Domestic Product has increased for nine consecutive quarters and is anticipated to post just under a 3% annualized growth in Q4 2011, up from 1.8% during the prior quarter.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Outlook of Small Businesses Improves, But Still Short of Levels Seen in Good Economic Times / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Small Business Optimism Index moved up to 93.8 during December from 92 in the prior month. The improvement is noteworthy and it is the highest since February 2011. However, the level of the index is within the range seen during the recession (see Chart 1).
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
2012 Stoking Another Deadly Recession / Economics / Recession 2012
By: FNN24
Our weekly update, published here takes a look at economic fundamentals across EU, US and UK while also looking at charts from FX markets and bond markets. Data has been mixed over the last few months with a case being made for US and UK to outperform all other markets while EU economies present a mixed picture with Germany standing out. But even then, we believe there are kinks in the growth picture across US, UK and EU as EURO crisis is expected to take an iron grip of the flow of credit over the next few months. Over EUR 1 trillion are set to be rolled over.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
The Making of China's Epic Economic Hard landing / Economics / China Economy
By: Dee_Woo
1. The unsavory episodes of China's economy
For the better part of the past year, my concern about Chinese economy was constantly aggravated by the depressing stories of entrepreneurs who committed suicide, fleeted the country or emigrate to the western world in droves. Most media have blamed the credit crunch and monetary tightening for all these unsavory episodes. The public outcry for the deteriorating conditions of Chinese entrepreneurship climaxed with the seemly positive step PBOC(the People's Bank of China) took on Dec 5 2011 to alleviate the liquidity crisis: cut the RRR (reserve requirement ratio) to 21 percent from a record high of 21.5 percent.
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Headwinds That Could Rock the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The key question about the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy for 2012 is if domestic economic momentum that is visible in bullish economic reports of past – ISM factory survey data, Q4 auto sales, and December employment report – will prevail in the rest of 2012 and offset headwinds from Europe (and its associated ramifications) and the setback from a decelerating trend of business activity in China. In the context, we will be providing periodic updates as economic reports are published.
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Monday, January 09, 2012
Understanding Deflation, How DEEP Will Cuts in Government Services Go? / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
"Localities have chopped 535,000 positions since September 2008..." USA Today (10/18)
Cuts in government services became conspicuous after the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
The first edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash saw this coming, even though the book published nearly a decade ago:
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Monday, January 09, 2012
China 2012: The Year of the Bull (Rogers) or the Bear (Chanos)? / Economics / China Economy
By: Janet_Tavakoli
When I think of a China bull and a China bear, I think of the legendary dueling Jims: Jim Rogers and Jim Chanos. In response to investors bearish on China, Jim Rogers famously said: “I find it interesting that people who couldn’t spell China 10 years ago are now experts.” Jim Chanos famously said that China’s real estate market is “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse.” He’s been saying that for over two years. Chanos points to a credit bubble, and says he’s early and sticking with his short positions. Rogers insists “China is not in a [credit] bubble,” rather it’s been in a price bubble in urban, coastal real estate, and to compare China to Dubai is a false analogy. Jim Rogers is bullish on China’s long term prospects: “China is going to have many serious problems along the way as it rises, but ‘Dubai 1000 times over’?!”
Saturday, January 07, 2012
Can The U.S. Economic Recovery Overcome Europe’s Drag? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
In an October column I wrote, “For the first time this year the trend of U.S. economic reports is potentially bottoming and turning positive. And after being bearish in the spring and summer, I like what I see in the technical charts of many markets. If only we could ignore Europe.”That pretty much still defines the situation as we enter the new year.
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Saturday, January 07, 2012
U.S. Unemployment Drops as Employment Reports Widespread Gains, Allows Fed Breathing Space / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.5% in December, down from 8.7% in November. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +200,000 jobs in December vs. +100,000 in November. Private sector jobs increased 212,000 after a gain of 120,000 in November. A net loss of 8,000 jobs followed after revisions to payroll estimates of October and November.
Private Sector Hourly Earnings: $23.24 in December vs. $23.20 in November; 2.1% y-o-y increase in December vs. 1.9% gain in November.
Friday, January 06, 2012
U.S. Labor Market Encouraging Signs, December Employment Report Awaited / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 15,000 to 372,000 during the week ended December 31. The four-week moving average at 373,250 is the lowest since June 2008. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, dropped 22,000 to 3.595 million.
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
US Economic Forecast for 2012 and the Presidential Election Year Cycle / Economics / US Economy
By: BATR
When it comes to business cycles, the former rules no longer seem to apply. The seminal events that changed the economic landscape after the 2008 financial crash still points to an uncertain future and marginal recovery. If you watch CNBC or Bloomberg business news, you hear that a modest recovery is in place. Accepting this kind of reporting may temporarily make you feel better, but in the real economy, the prospects for a rebound are mere fiction. Prosperity only exists for the chums of the insider financial system, who are immune from actual market conditions. Under the privileged and favoritism model, political subsidies and bailouts are more important than creative industry or innovative execution.
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
China Economy, Gold 2012 And Von Mises’ Crack-Up Boom / Economics / China Economy
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The credit boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse… If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns into the crack-up boom; the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders.
Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, 1949
I first attended the Canton Trade Fair in October 1976. All Chinese men and women were dressed in blue shirts and blue pants, bicycles were China’s main mode of transportation, Chairman Mao had just died and China’s mantra, “We will continue to support the policies of Chairman Mao Tse-Tung and criticize the policies of Deng Xiao-Ping”, was heard everywhere.
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