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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Why the Statistical Economic Recovery Feels Bad / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInquiring minds might be interested in charts of GDP minus the effect of increased government spending. The charts are from reader Tim Wallace who writes ...

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Economics

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Forget a Recession, The American Empire is Crumbling / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI look around me and I see an Empire in Decline.

The US economy is clearly in a depression… not a recession, not a recovery, but a DEPRESSION. More than 40 million Americans (12%) are on Food stamps. Nearly one in five of us are unemployed of underemployed. Folks go to Wal-Mart at 11PM waiting for their government checks to clear at midnight so they can buy baby formula, milk and other necessities.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

U.S. Unemployment Rate Could be Higher in September vs. August / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 48.5 in September from 53.2 in August.  The September reading is the lowest since February 2010 (46.4).  The historical low is 25.3, registered in February 2009.  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index also declined in September (66.6 vs. 68.9 in August).  The decline in consumer outlook appears to be tied to the prevailing conditions in the job market.  Although the recent recession officially ended in June 2009 and real GDP has posted growth for four straight quarters, the 9.6% unemployment rate in August is an elevated level playing an important role in the pessimistic outlook of consumers. 

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Economics

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Q.E. Economic Engine Revs But Car Goes Nowhere / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe economy is stuck in neutral so stepping on the QE gas pedal is highly unlikely to accomplish much except increase the noise level. Yet, the philosophy at the Fed seems to be, if gas doesn't work, give the engine more gas.

So the engine continues to rev louder and louder, and treasury yields drop, but that does not and will not put Americans back to work.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Apologises for Being Wrong on QE and Stimulus Spending / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAmbrose Evans-Pritchard the head economic poncho at the Telegraph now nearly 2 years from starting his mantra of deficit spending stimulus to prevent a debt deleveraging deflationary depression turns around and says that he has been wrong all along, that central banks such as the US Fed are focused on creating inflation rather than preventing deflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Slowing U.S. Economic Conditions / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.53 in August from -0.11 in July.  The August decline marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline of the CFNAI, after two monthly gains.  The 3-month moving average is -0.42 in August vs. -0.27 in July.  The cut-off mark for the 3-month moving average of the CFNAI is -0.7.  Readings above -0.7 after a period contraction suggest the recession has ended.  The July and August readings of the CFNAI point to weakening economic conditions.  The CFNAI is made up of 85 economic indicators classified under four categories - production and income, employment, unemployment and hours, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders, and inventories. 

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Economics

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

A Candid Appraisal of the U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the last two weeks, seemingly good economic news offered some shreds of optimism to a stock market that was desperate for a pick-me-up.

The week before last, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the US recession had ended back in June 2009. At the beginning of last week, news came in that month-on-month retail sales had risen by 0.4 percent. Combined with successful government debt auctions in the eurozone, increasing expectations that Republicans will take back the House (thereby blunting the leftward drift of Washington), and hopes that a new round of quantitative easing will pump up growth, mainstream analysts are developing a feeling of near-euphoria.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Has the U.S. Economy Improved in the Third Quarter? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic growth in the second quarter slowed to an anemic 1.6% from 5.0% in the December quarter, and 3.7% in the first quarter.

Hopes have been that things began picking up again in the third quarter and that last year’s recovery from the recession is back on track.

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Economics

Monday, September 27, 2010

Generating Economic Optimism, Put On a Happy Face? / Economics / US Economy

By: Douglas_French

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince two years of zero interest rates, $800 billion in fiscal stimulus, and the bailout of any business remotely viewed as systemically important haven't resuscitated the dead economy, now the tonic suggested is optimism. American business owners and consumers need to quit getting their daubers down and keep the sunny side up.

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Economics

Monday, September 27, 2010

Consumer Credit Depression, CBO Deficit Armageddon, Government Warnings of Financial Fiascos! / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Martin_D_Weiss

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor my family, fiscal balance is not — and never was — a partisan issue. My father, for example, had little interest in politics but was passionate about savings, hard work and avoiding waste.

When I was a toddler, he used to sit me on his knee, teaching me and my older brother that money is not a toy or a game; it’s to be valued, kept in a piggy bank, and treated with due respect.

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Economics

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Community Bank Director Chimes In Regarding Small Business Lending / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

In response to $30 Billion Offer No One Wants - Small Businesses Hit by Deflation I received this email from a director of a small bank.

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Economics

Sunday, September 26, 2010

The Economic Impact of More Trade Agreements / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Pravda

Mauro Dias Lourenço writes:In the second half of the twentieth century, Brazil was one of the countries that grew fastest on the planet, especially until 1979, which includes the period of the so-called "economic miracle," from 1967 to 1973. The fact that the phenomenon coincided mostly with the period of military dictatorship (1964-1985) does not mean that resulted from an authoritarian regime in which the State has stimulated the development.

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Economics

Sunday, September 26, 2010

QE2, An Invitation to an Inflation Party? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week the Fed altered their end-of-meeting statement by just a few words, but those words have a lot of meaning. It seems they are paving the way to a new round of quantitative easing (QE2), if in their opinion the situation warrants it. A trillion dollars of new money could soon be injected into the system. Tonight we explore some of the implications of a new round of QE. Let's put our speculation hats on, gentle reader, as we are moving into uncharted territory. There are no maps, just theories, and they don't all agree. (Note: this letter may print a little long, as there are a lot of charts.)

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Economics

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Deflation Hits Small Businesses, No One Wants Obama's $30 Billion / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen government passes out the money normally people are lined up, in advance, with both hands out. When that does not happen, it's because the offer smells like a rotten fish.

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Economics

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Is a Flat Tariff the Answer to America’s Trade Mess? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe House Ways and Means Committee has finally approved a bill that would attempt to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation, a key cause of America’s trade deficit, by threatening China with retaliatory tariffs. Leaving aside the bogeyman of a trade war—which China is unlikely to start as the nation running the trade surplus and thus the nation having something to lose—this raises the obvious question of whether tariffs are a plausible long-term solution to America’s trade problems. What would happen, that is, if America reverted to its historical norm (from Independence to after WWII) of being a tariff-protected economy?

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Economics

Friday, September 24, 2010

Asia’s Digital Dragon, $80 Billion and 1.1 Billion Users by 2015 / Economics / Technology

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith just over 1.3 billion people (as of mid-2008), China accounts for about 20 percent of the world population and needless to say, is the world's largest and most populous country. Although the country’s population growth has been somewhat slowed by the one child policy (in effect since 1979), its internet population has been growing leaps and bounds over the last ten years. (Figure 1)

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Economics

Friday, September 24, 2010

Partial Equilibrium Analysis – Part 2 / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the first part of this series, we took at a look at Partial Equilibrium (PE) analysis in terms of analyzing a particular good or service rather than macroeconomic aggregates. What PE allows us to do as well is to both qualitatively and quantitatively assess the true effects of taxes and subsidies. We can also answer whether or not taxes and subsidies represent Pareto efficiencies. For our example we chose to look at the area of gasoline taxes. Many state governments are considering increasing gasoline taxes in the face of collapsing tax receipts.  Intuitively, it would seem that such measures would be penny-wise and dollar foolish, but let’s use PE and see if that bears out conventional wisdom.  

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Economics

Friday, September 24, 2010

Raining on the Inflation Parade / Economics / Deflation

By: Seth_Barani

The major components of the dollar index are Euro, Yen and Pound. If Euro and Pound are expected to struggle from sovereign debt crises and Yen to be kept weak by BOJ intervention, why will dollar index fall? Predictions of a weak $DXY (under 70) seem to be built on shaky grounds. The present formula to calculate the dollar index is a very poor representation of dollar's purchasing power, since it does not take into account prices of asset-vehicles beyond a few forex currencies some of which are also manipulated by central banks. It is our belief that dollar index does not show the true nature of inflation/deflation.

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Economics

Friday, September 24, 2010

The Irish Economy Collapses As A Result Of The Global Financial Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010

By: Christopher_Quigley

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“A Guarantee Too Far”

Currently the Irish economy is in freefall following the collapse of the real estate market that had expanded ten fold in the decade from 1997 – 2007. The reasons for this “Celtic Tiger” boom are many but in the main it arose due to the following:

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Economics

Friday, September 24, 2010

Deflation Reality or Urban Myth? / Economics / Deflation

By: Puru_Saxena

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBIG PICTURE:  The inflation/deflation debate is now the ‘topic du jour’ and although we have discussed this issue in the past, we want to throw more light on this very important subject. 

Today, many prominent economists (Nouriel Roubini, David Rosenberg and Paul Krugman) and fund managers (Bill Gross and Jeremy Grantham) are forecasting deflation and according to these folks, a deflationary contraction is now ‘baked in the cake’.  In fact, these deflationists are extremely worried about the ongoing private-sector debt-deleveraging in the developed world and they are also concerned about the lack of aggregate demand in the industrialised nations.  Bearing in mind these two factors, these prominent people believe that deflation is now almost guaranteed and inflation is out of the question.

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