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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Global Monetary Stalemate, Quantitative Easing Won't Work / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMr. Bernanke is trying to avoid the Japanese experience of the past 20 years. Underlying deflation is being offset again, as it has been for the past eight years, by creating more money and credit. The only one lose to our prediction of mid-May of $5 trillion over two years is Keynesian economist Paul Krugman. He said the Fed would need $6 trillion. The Republicans seized the House and all that has really been accomplished is gridlock, the end of stimulus and a cut of perhaps $100 billion in debt.

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Economics

Friday, November 12, 2010

Modern Economists Failed at Disaster Recovery / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Barry_Elias

When a recent Nobel Laureate in Economics, a current Federal Reserve Board president, and MIT economist with the National Bureau of Economics (NBER) agree — take serious note: It is quite rare.

"I believe that during the last financial crisis, macroeconomists (and I include myself among them) failed the country, and indeed the world,” Dr. Narayana Kocherlakota, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, wrote this past May.

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Economics

Friday, November 12, 2010

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit Reduction Plan Analysis / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: The two leaders of U.S. President Barack Obama's Deficit Commission Wednesday produced a proposal for deficit cuts that slaughtered a lot of budgetary "sacred cows" and cut $3.8 trillion off the deficit over the next 10 years.

And the cuts were even made in just the right ratio – with $3 of spending cuts for every $1 of tax increases.

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Economics

Friday, November 12, 2010

Ireland Goes Bust, Irish Bank Run / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere was a bank run in Ireland on Wednesday. LCH Clearnet, a London based clearinghouse, surprised the markets by announcing it would increase margin requirements on Irish debt by 15 percent. That's all it took to send investors fleeing for the exits. Yields on Irish bonds spiked sharply as banks tried to close positions or raise the capital needed to meet the new requirements. The Irish 10-year bond soared to 8.9 percent by day's end, more than 6 percentage points higher than "risk free" German sovereign debt. The ECB will have to intervene. Ireland is on its way to default.

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Economics

Thursday, November 11, 2010

China's Trade Imbalance Threatens Global Economic Stability / Economics / Global Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: China announced yesterday (Wednesday) that its trade surplus grew 60.7% in October from the month before as efforts to rebalance its economic growth this year have failed. Furthermore, recent policy tightening measures mean domestic demand is unlikely to pick up in the near future.

"The rebalancing of China's economy has an awfully long way to go – in fact it's hardly even got started," Mark Williams, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. who previously worked at the U.K. Treasury as an adviser to China, told Bloomberg. "In normal circumstances, the world might be willing to wait, but not when the likes of the U.S. are struggling with very high unemployment."

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Economics

Thursday, November 11, 2010

U.S. Jobless Claims Decline and Trade Gap Narrows, Exports Continue Boost Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInitial jobless claims fell 24,000 to 435,000 during the week ended November 6.  Initial jobless claims have dropped in three out of the last four weeks.  The 4-week moving average at 446,500 is the lowest since September 13, 2008 (see chart 1).  Each of these developments is noteworthy and encouraging.  In addition, the date is haunting because this is the last weekly reading before the Lehman Brothers debacle in September 2008. 

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Economics

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Marc Faber on U.S. Trade Deficit Doom as a Cause of the Financial Crisis / Economics / US Economy

By: Videos

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarc Faber Discussing the U.S. trade deficit as the real cause of the financial crisis that boosted emerging markets and commodities which should be thanking Ben Bernanke. U.S. could benefit form exporting agricultural commodities.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Quantitative Easing During Mid 1930s Appears to Have Been Successful / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is much skepticism as to whether the Fed's second round of quantitative easing, QE2, will be effective in stimulating the nominal demand for goods and services in the U.S. economy. It was explained in our November 4, 2010 US Economic and Interest Rate Outlook why the Fed's first round of quantitative easing, which ran from the end of November 2008 through the end of March 2010, was rather unsuccessful in stimulating nominal aggregate demand and why we believe that the Fed's just-announced second round will be more successful. Keying off Mark Twain's aphorism that although history may not repeat, it often rhymes, perhaps we can get some guidance as to whether QE2 will be successful from the results of the quantitative easing that was initiated in the second half of 1933.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Why QE2 INCREASES the Risk of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTim Waring writes: Markets lapped it up!

QE2 was met with rapture by commodity and stock markets as traders and investors continue the easy money ride of a sinking dollar. The effect on the real economy is unknown but common sense rather than models suggests this extra $600billion is a mistake.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

How to Profit from China's Consumer Boom Throttling Up GDP Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: BEIJING, People's Republic of China – There's something inherently satisfying about waking up on a clear, crisp fall day in this bustling capital city, and seeing this headline atop the lead story in this morning's China Daily newspaper:

"World Bank Sees Change in Growth Pattern"

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Economics

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Deflation is Still a Problem Despite Fed Money Printing QE2 / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDeflation is not a problem because the Fed can always create inflation by printing more money.

Wrong.

While it's true that the Fed can print as much money as it chooses, adding to the money stock does not decrease deflation or increase inflation. It merely adds to the reserves the banks have at their disposal to lend out to businesses and consumers. Here's how British economist John Maynard Keynes summed it up:

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Economics

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Common Sense vs. Academic Economist Formulas; Fed Concludes Structurally High Unemployment is a Myth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBen Bernanke and the Fed have great belief in academic models whether they make any real world practical sense or not.

Indeed, Bernanke's reliance on formulas instead of common sense is what told him there was no housing bubble, that unemployment would not get above 8.5%, and that Quantitative Easing in massive force would cause the unemployment rate to drop. He was wrong on all counts.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Fed Pushes U.S. Economy into an Inflationary Death Spiral / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt seems the Fed has given up on the idea that the country can build a viable and stable economy through the conventional means. Instead, our central bank has resorted to once again growing GDP and increasing employment by the creation of asset bubbles. This is a dangerous game that no one, least of all the Fed, knows how to play.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

U.S. Commercial and Industrial Demand for Loans Remains Weak / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey results of October indicate that demand for commercial and industrial loans from large and medium sized firms was weaker compared with the third quarter survey (see chart 1).  A larger percentage of bankers indicated weaker demand from small firms.  This information is discouraging because stronger economic growth in the months ahead is tied to a likely pickup in loan demand. 

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Economics

Monday, November 08, 2010

Thinking Clearly about Capital, Interest, and Income / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNowadays, Austrian economists are most famous for their theory of the business cycle, as developed by Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. However, they also made many contributions to the pure theory of capital and interest, most notably in the seminal work of Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk and later in that of Hayek. In the present article we'll see that these insights are relevant today, as mainstream economist Scott Sumner lashes out justifiably against absurd tax policies but, in the process, throws economic theory out the window too.

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Economics

Monday, November 08, 2010

The Business Boom-Bust Cycle in Microcosm / Economics / Economic Theory

By: George_Reisman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe essential features of the boom-bust business cycle can be understood by viewing them in terms of the financial circumstances of a single individual.

Thus, imagine that an ordinary person has been going about his life more or less living within his means. And now, one day, he receives a registered letter from a major bank. The letter informs him that he is the sole heir of a distant relative who possessed a substantial fortune, and that he should come into the bank's main office in his city to sign the necessary documents and receive all the necessary authorizations to henceforth dispose of this fortune as he sees fit. Naturally, he quickly goes in and takes possession of his newfound fortune.

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Economics

Monday, November 08, 2010

How the Government Lies About Low CPI Inflation, Krugman Deflation Propaganda / Economics / Inflation

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRobert Wenzel writes: With commodity prices soaring, Paul Krugman is in a trap with his deflation call, so he has decided to turn to Richard "I am not a crook" Nixon to explain why price inflation is really not happening.

Krugman tells us to forget about the prices that are going up. They are too volatile, he tells us. He says that what we should focus on are tricky sticky price indexes, specifically, core CPI.

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Economics

Monday, November 08, 2010

Lessons From the 1930's Great Depression, Create Jobs by Executive Order / Economics / Government Spending

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJeanne Mirer and Marjorie Cohn writes: On May 6, 1935, with the country in the midst of the Great Depression, and with indirect efforts to create jobs having not moved the needle of unemployment rates, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 7034 and appropriated $4.8 billion for the Works Progress Administration (WPA). The WPA put millions of Americans to work constructing buildings, painting murals to decorate them, and performing plays for audiences that had never before seen a dramatic production. In the process, many were saved from poverty and starvation and the economy began to revive.

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Economics

Monday, November 08, 2010

Fed Debases the Imperial Dollar, Inflation, Stagnation and Higher Interest Rates Ahead / Economics / Inflation

By: Prof_Rodrigue_Trembl

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Under a paper money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."Ben Bernanke, future Fed Chairman (in 2002)

“My thesis here is that cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities in Japan could help solve the problems that each policymaker faces on its own. Consider for example a tax cut for households and businesses that is explicitly coupled with incremental BOJ purchases of government debt – so that the tax cut is in effect financed by money creation. Moreover, assume that the Bank of Japan has made a commitment, by announcing a price-level target, to reflate the economy, so that much or all of the increase in the money stock is viewed as permanent.”Ben Bernanke, future Fed Chairman (in 2002)

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Economics

Saturday, November 06, 2010

Bernanke Leaps into a Liquidity Trap, Thoughts on the U.S. Employment Numbers / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Few Thoughts on the Employment Numbers
Bernanke Leaps into a Liquidity Trap
How to Spot a Liquidity Trap
Toy Blocks

I am in London finishing my new book, The End Game, which will be out after the first of the year, as soon as Wiley can make it happen. Working with my co-author, Jonathan Tepper, we are making good progress. We intend to quit (a book like this is never finished) tomorrow afternoon.

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