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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

US Treasury Running on Fumes, Down to the Last Trillion in Red Ink / Economics / US Debt

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

The White House is screaming like a stuck pig. WikiLeaks’ release of the Afghan War Documents “puts the lives of our soldiers and our coalition partners at risk.”

What nonsense. Obama’s war puts the lives of American soldiers at risk, and the craven puppet state behavior of “our partners” in serving as US mercenaries is what puts their troops at risk.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Government Economic Lies, The Grossly Problematic Gross Domestic Product / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: LewRockwell

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRichard C.B. Johnsson writes: There might be many other valid concerns about the concept of Gross Domestic Product, but the perhaps most acute one is that one particular component of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remains on a net basis. How about that, such a widely used and supposedly gross measure has a mix of gross and net components! There can’t be any logical justifications for that at all. Obviously, a net measure should only have net components and a gross measure only have gross components, but mixing gross and net terms seems completely illogical and inconsistent.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Economic Warnings From Niall Ferguson and Nassim Taleb / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTwo widely respected economic commentators, Harvard's Niall Ferguson and Nassim "black swan" Taleb, have offered highly pessimistic assessments of what lies ahead for the American economy.

Information like this is widely ignored by investors in weeks when they have decided that nothing can stop them: they will get rich by investing in the American stock market, no matter what. On July 21, Ben Bernanke told the Senate Banking committee that "the economic outlook looks unusually uncertain." Stocks fell sharply as soon as he gave his testimony. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered at the opening bell the next day, and then rose by almost 400 points over the next three business days. There was no news that countered Bernanke's assessment. Investors simply shrugged it off.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Will U.S. House Prices Drive The 4.8% “Consensus” Nominal GDP Growth Forecast? / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI looked up the “consensus” for nominal US GDP growth in The Economist today; you have to add “real” to “CPI” to get the answer  - I’m not interested in “real”, for me “real” is what they measure (nominal), and the un-reality starts when they subtract whatever weird and wonderful concoction of inflation is handed down by the Bureau of Labor.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

U.S. Economy Heading For Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: John_Browne

At long last, a good portion of mainstream economists now concede that a 'double dip' recession is in the cards for the United States. To head off the pain, sixteen top economists addressed an open letter to the President urging him to "stimulate" the economy with a massive new round of government spending. We feel this is a recipe for driving a recession into a depression. However, there can be few doubts that such a move is being considered in the highest policy circles. Flush from victories in financial regulation and healthcare, the Administration may feel the conditions are ripe to push through another bold initiative.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Running Through a Minefield Backwards / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBefore we get into today's Outside the Box I want to clear up a few ideas from this weekend's letter. There have been posts on various websites equating my piece on deflation with Paul Krugman. They say I am advocating kicking the can down the road and not reducing the deficit.

Wrong. What I have been trying to point out for several years is that we have no good choices. We are down to bad and very bad choices. The very bad choice (leading to disastrous - think Greece) is to continue to run massive deficits. The merely bad choice is to reduce the deficits gradually over time. As I try to point out, reducing the deficits has consequences in the short term. It WILL affect GDP in the short term. Krugman and the neo-Keynesians are right about that. To deny that is to ignore basic arithmetic.

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Economics

Monday, July 26, 2010

Three Emerging Economies Bucking the Depression Downtrend / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Q1_Publishing

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite the downturn, they’re absolutely booming.

While most-watched stock markets are flat at best, their stock markets are running up.

Best of all, there are a lot of reasons these runs will continue in the short- and long-term.

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Economics

Monday, July 26, 2010

The Deflationary Cycle Full Monty, Eight Risks That Will Cause Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: JD_Rosendahl

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the past couple years I have written quite a few blogs.  One of my personal favorites has to be:  Mustard Seeds for Deflation: The Deflationary Cycle Full Monty.  This was my somewhat complete case for a deflationary spiral written in August 2009.

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Economics

Monday, July 26, 2010

Four Shocking Economic Bombshells Bernanke Did NOT Tell Congress About Last Week / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Martin_D_Weiss

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn his testimony before Congress last week, Ben Bernanke lifted the Fed’s skirt and gave us a glimpse of the disasters now sweeping through the U.S. economy.

But there are four bombshells he did NOT talk about:

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Economics

Monday, July 26, 2010

The Illuson of Economic Recovery, Major Indicators Point Towards Further Collapse / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe talk of recovery pervades insider thinking. The major media worldwide plays the same refrain. This is a desperate attempt to befuddle the public with misdirected propaganda to preserve confidence in a system that is in a state of collapse. As CNBC leads the charge, loss of faith in the system grows with each passing day. In spite of control of the major media by elitists, talk radio and the Internet hammers away incessantly with the truth influencing more and more 24/7 worldwide. As a result of the success of the alternative media a good many investors realize we have a systemic credit crisis that has turned into a debt crisis as well.

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Economics

Monday, July 26, 2010

Inflation, The Coming Rice in Prices / Economics / Inflation

By: Howard_Katz

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week I argued that the theory of a coming decline in prices just around the corner was a balloon full of hot air, and like all such balloons it was bound to sail into the atmosphere.  So far from this “deflation” theory being true, it is a deliberate falsehood and in fact is a very good indicator that the exact opposite will happen.

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Economics

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Credit Based on Consumption Not Savings, Real Bills Revisted / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Professor_Emeritus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAdam Smith in his Wealth of Nations worked out the foundations of a second type of credit that is based, not on savings, but on consumption. Later this theory was pejoratively called "Real Bills Doctrine" by its detractors. We stick to this name because the adjective "real" admirably captures the essence of a bill of exchange, making it different from anticipation bills, accommodation bills, treasury bills, which all have a measure of being "unreal".

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Economics

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Thoughts on the Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Pravda

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarcus Eduardo de Oliveira writes: "… the ideas of Economists and political philosophers, BOTH right when they are and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood." -John Maynard Keynes

Nobody can ignore the economy for only two reasons: the first is that not enough resources for everyone, since desires are unlimited. The shortage, understood as market failure, is an incontestable truth. The second reason is that we are all part of the economy. The latest issues involving the economy also involve us in every moment. Thus, regardless of the evolutionary stage of each company, we always affect situations involving the generation of employment, income, combating poverty, hunger, resource transfers, taxation, purchase and sale of goods.

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Economics

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Wages and Subsistence / Economics / Employment

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe life of primitive man was an unceasing struggle against the scantiness of the nature-given means for his sustenance. In this desperate effort to secure bare survival, many individuals and whole families, tribes, and races succumbed. Primitive man was always haunted by the specter of death from starvation. Civilization has freed us from these perils. Human life is menaced day and night by innumerable dangers; it can be destroyed at any instant by natural forces which are beyond control or at least cannot be controlled at the present stage of our knowledge and our potentialities. But the horror of starvation no longer terrifies people living in a capitalist society. He who is able to work earns much more than is needed for bare sustenance.

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Economics

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Elements of Deflation and the Super-Trend Puzzle / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSome Thoughts on Deflation
The Super-Trend Puzzle
The Elements of Deflation

The debate over whether we are in for inflation or deflation was alive and well at the Agora Symposium in Vancouver this this week. It seems that not everyone is ready to join the deflation-first, then-inflation camp I am currently resident in. So in this week's letter we look at some of the causes of deflation, the elements of deflation, if you will, and see if they are in ascendancy. For equity investors, this is an important question because, historically, periods of deflation have not been kind to stock markets. Let's come at this week's letter from the side, and see if we can sneak up on some answers.

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Economics

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Making Sense of the Economic Puzzle / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou can tell a lot about the state of the economy by simply looking at the covers of national news magazines. Or perhaps a better way of saying it is that you can get a good sense of how most Americans perceive the state of the economy by perusing the mainstream magazines.

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Economics

Saturday, July 24, 2010

U.S. Jobless Claims and Housing Market Data Point to Worsening Economy / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Barry_Grey

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReports issued Thursday on initial claims for unemployment benefits and sales of previously owned homes confirm that the US economy is slowing dramatically.

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended July 17 rose by 37,000 to 464,000. The number was far higher than the consensus forecast of economists. It underscored the bleak prospects for any significant reduction in the unemployment rate, now officially at 9.5 percent.

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Economics

Saturday, July 24, 2010

U.S. Jobs Situation Worse Than Broadcast / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Hans_Wagner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe unemployment numbers for June 2010 were worse than articulated. The headline number said 83,000 private sector jobs were created and the unemployment rate slipped to 9.5% from 9.7%. Sounds like things are looking up. But, as you might expect, the devil is in the details and the details tell a different story.

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Economics

Friday, July 23, 2010

Europe Is Jumping the Gun By Removing Stimulus! / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast winter, global central banks were in agreement, assuring markets that stimulative policies would remain in place until a durable global economic recovery is secured, that “pre-mature withdrawal of stimulus would be avoided, and when the time arrived the withdrawal will be globally co-operative and undertaken in a coordinated way.”

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Economics

Friday, July 23, 2010

UK Stealth Economic Boom, GDP 1.1% Growth Catches Press and Academic Economists By Surprise / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe UK registered strong GDP growth during the second quarter of 2010 of 1.1%, annualised to 4.4%, which caught the mainstream press, academic economists and even the City by surprise who had typically penciled in growth expectations of between 0.3% and 0.5% from just the day before let alone longer term actionable forecasts, much of the recent mainstream press commentary has been focused on the risks of a double dip recession as illustrated below:

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