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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

UK Economy GDP Growth Forecasts Continue to be Revised Lower for 2008 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The OECD, Inline with many economic forecasting organisations have in recent months revised UK growth forecasts lower, today the OECD announced that UK growth for 2008 is expected to be 1.8% against 2% in Dec 07, and growth for 2009 to fall to 1.4%.

The organisation cited the weakening housing market and the tight credit conditions for the the lower growth forecast and urged the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold to help curb rising inflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

US Living Standards and Productivity / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Boring as this might seem to some of our rightwing pundits, we can get no where in economic debate without the application of theory. Many of the questions that are popping up these days are linked to the alleged connection between productivity, unemployment and inflation. There are no links here in the functional sense. In a free market unemployment will not rise even where productivity is falling.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics / Economics / Recession

By: Dr_William_R_Swagell

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“Every single release of late has afforded both bulls and bears the chance to grab onto data to support their view of the economy, but it does not do a whole lot for those in search of clarity.”

To those words by Richard Moody (chief economist Mission Residential) may we all say “Amen”.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

US Economy in Deflationary Death Spiral / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLook around. The evidence of a withering economy is everywhere. In "good times" consumers shun the canned meat aisle altogether, but no more. Today, Spam sales are soaring; grocery stores can't keep it on the shelves. Everyone is looking for cheaper ways to feed their families. The Labor Dept. assures us that core-inflation is only 4 per cent, but everybody knows it's load of malarkey. Food prices are going through the roof. White bread is up 13 percent, bacon is up 7 percent and peanut butter is up 9 percent. Inflation is rampant and there's no end in sight. The dollar is closing in on the peso and working people are struggling just to get by. The bottom line is that more and more people in "the richest country on earth" are now surviving on processed pig-meat. That says it all.

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Economics

Monday, June 02, 2008

Are Subsistence Wages Killing The United States? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI received an interesting Email last week from Minyan "MC" who is concerned about globalization's effect on jobs and wages. Let's tune in to his thoughts:
There is a mania in this country to slash wages to a subsistence level (or worse). This is a symptom of the greed and corporate cronyism that is killing the country.

The powers-that-be that run the US are determined to crush wages, even when they realize that people are doing without food, health insurance, etc. We keep hearing news stories that about 10% of our population doesn't have sufficient food? The root cause is the mania to cut wages and lay off workers.

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Economics

Monday, June 02, 2008

Betting on Biggs and other Economic Predictions / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_Petillo

Some folks would like to call these days an inflection point. But that would be a prediction. The markets are going up, down and sideways in an unpredictable way and yet we are still trying to divine some semblance of normal where normal may not exist.

Douglas Noël Adams, the late author of the classic Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy suggested that, "Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." But in days like these, where experience seems to be as passé as our dominance on the global economy, who do you listen to?

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Economics

Monday, June 02, 2008

Why Consumer Spending Won't Save the US Economy from Depression / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRegardless of the spiteful attempts of the Democrats and a corrupt media, the US economy is not going to sink into a depression. (When in 2000 Cheney observed, correctly, that the economy was in recession he was accused by the same corrupt media and the Democrats of trying "to talk down the economy"). Some economic commentators have stressed that based on a year-over-year basis GDP rose by 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year, most of it due the country's export boom.

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Economics

Saturday, May 31, 2008

US Economy Stuck in the Purple Haze of Stagflation / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the economy caught somewhere in the purple haze between recession and anemic growth, many market prognosticators have been making the case that the worst is behind us.

With respect to the credit crisis, I do think that with the exception of a few nerve-rattling write-offs still to come, that is true. Credit spreads have begun to narrow, volatility measures seem to have settled down in recent weeks and the very unorthodox liquidity measures taken by the Fed appear to have calmed the nerves of market actors and appears to be in the process of pushing the market back towards something approximating normalcy.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2008

The False Prosperity of Inflationary Booms / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...So what's not to love about an inflationary boom...?"

"EVER WONDERED WHY your family budgets never seem to work out as planned?" asked Harry Browne in his 1970 best-seller, How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation .

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2008

Indonesia Dumps Corrupt OPEC for the Good Guys and Greater Profits / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Martin_Hutchinson

At times, you can tell a country by the company it keeps. Indonesia just announced it plans to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the infamous cartel that tries to push our oil prices through the roof.

That decision may not seem very significant, but consider it this way: If you were Indonesia, which countries would you rather have as your buddies? A bunch of sleazy, corrupt, idle “lottery winners” such as Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola? Or would you prefer a set of hard-working and diligent neighbors such as Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand? Not to mention two of the largest growth economies in the world: India and China?

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2008

CNNMoney.com's ‘Great Depression Comparisons Misguided' Conflicts with Historical Fact / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Paul_Lamont

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter reading CNNMoney.com Editor Paul La Monica's piece on the comparisons to the Great Depression , we felt compelled to respond. Unfortunately for Mr. La Monica, the article regurgitates common beliefs about the Depression which conflict with historical fact and basic economics. We hope to set things straight. We begin with Mr. La Monica's words:

The unemployment rate skyrocketed during the Depression, peaking at nearly 25% in 1933. The current unemployment rate is just 5%. And that's only up from 4.5% a year ago. Contrast that with the far more explosive spike at the beginning of the Great Depression - from about 3% in 1929 to nearly 8.7% in 1930, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census.”

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Latest Banking-Sector Credit Crisis Are Bank Owned Life Insurance Vehicles / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThree major U.S. banks - including Fifth Third Bancorp. ( FITB ) and Wachovia Corp. ( WB ) - got clobbered in recent days on the news that they've lost another $1.6 billion by making investments in the Citigroup Inc. ( C ) Falcon hedge fund that lost 75% of its value earlier this year.

It's just the latest chapter in a continuing credit-crisis saga that's gone on for so long that many investors have become numb to the news: They regard all new developments with a kind of "so what" attitude, or just ignore the news completely.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Manipulated Economic Statistics and the Battle for Citizenry Perceptions / Economics / Market Manipulation

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith consumer confidence now testing generational lows, our politicians are never the less continuously assuring us that the economy is strong, and that there is no cause for worry.

Although it is standard procedure for governments to soothe their citizenry with placebo politics in order to avoid panic and uprising, there is a line after which such a campaign is counterproductive.  In fact, misleading statements about financial security are potentially dangerous to the country's long term economic well being, and potentially toxic to investors.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Central Banks Joined in the Inflation Targeting Craze / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Articlert = g rt- 1 + (1 -g ) rt* + q [ Et pt+j – p* ]

"If we wait until a price movement is actually afoot before applying remedial measures, we may be too late..." John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform (1923)

JUST WHAT ARE central banks for exactly?

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Economics

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Higher Prices Here to Stay / Economics / Inflation

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Absent big economic news, a few rumors of buyouts affecting select stocks, the markets were focused on energy prices and their new ascent to dizzying heights. Cuts of SUV production by Ford and reports of sales up over 20% of hybrid vehicles (not to mention articles about motorized scooters) indicate consumers are beginning to seriously look at changing their driving habits. While conservation remains a couple of years away, the fact that much of the discussion has finally hit the table is a good start.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Greenspan's Incessant Contradictory Ramblings / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Brady_Willett

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn yet another attempt to defend his legacy, Greenspan resorts to semantics and outrageous contradiction ( FT Article ). On the topic of asset ‘bubbles' – which Greenspan preferred to completely ignore as they acquired air and help reflate after they burst – he asked the following:

“Is there a bubble today in food, energy, gold, currencies?  If so, what specifically should we do about it?”

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Economics

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The Hyperinflationary Shell Game / Economics / Stagflation

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleModern economics is not rocket science. In fact, it's not science at all. It's a game, a confidence game. Once paper passed for money, economics became an elaborate shell game designed to hide the fact paper had been substituted for silver and gold. Debt ratings are an attempt to quantify confidence in paper assets and are an essential part of the game. The shell game is called “Where's The Money?” The answer is simple, it's not there.

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Economics

Monday, May 26, 2008

Bush Economic and Housing Boom was Fueled by Credit Expansion / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAmerica's sluggish economy has the ever-so patriotic Democrats and their media playmates drooling over the prospect of a recession and rising unemployment. Those political activists who have the brazen effrontery to call themselves journalists have been gleefully drawing unfavourable comparisons between the economy under Bush and the Clinton boom, painting the former as a dreadful record of lousy growth, stagnant wages and tax cuts for the rich.

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Economics

Monday, May 26, 2008

Inflation accelerates while the Reserve plays guessing games / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

The CPI now stands at an annual rate of 4.3 per cent (1.3 per cent over the Reserve's maximum target rate). And what does Governor Glenn Stevens do? He blames the commodity boom and 'excessive' wage rates, warning that they might force him to lift bank rates.

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Economics

Sunday, May 25, 2008

The Easy Money Path to Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWelcome to the Weekly Report. Due to family illness, this week's letter will be shorter than usual but all the more powerful. This week we re-visit the scenario used for the Occasional Letter series as another milestone is passed.

The Scenario: bubble, easy money, inflation in fiat money supply, inflation in commodities and hard assets, inflation, fear of inflation, rising rates, YC inverting, flattening, rising and inverting again, tightening, withdrawal of liquidity, corrections, crashes, talk of stagflation, FEAR, withdrawal of speculative funds, further corrections and crashes, demand collapse.....Deflation.

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