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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Retail Tsunami Wave Hits Gift Cards and Shopping Mall Operator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Reuters is reporting Weaker gift card demand to hit post-holiday sales .

The once-hot holiday gift card may be losing some of its luster, dealing a setback to struggling U.S. retailers who count on the cards to drive consumers into stores for a post-Christmas shopping spree. As shoppers have witnessed a slew of retail bankruptcies this year, they are showing some reluctance toward buying the cards as gifts for friends and family.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2008

U.S. Economic Pain Precedes Greatest Investment Opportunity of a Generation / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: If there's a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it's the one that says: “It's always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2008

Why Washington Cannot Prevent Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Money_and_Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Fear of depression is sweeping the nation. Millions of Americans are consumed with anxiety, abandoning their old shop-till-they-drop habits, slashing their spending, trying desperately to pinch pennies for the coming hard times.

Thousands of bankers are snapping shut their coffers, tightening their lending standards, hunkering down in anticipation of a massive economic downturn.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2008

Peter Schiff and China's Economy Hard Landing / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe will take a look at Schiff from two perspectives shortly. First let's note the massive influx of workers into Chinese cities is now in reverse as Chinese job losses prompt exodus .

Tens of thousands of migrant workers are leaving the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou after losing their jobs, railway officials say. The increase to 130,000 passengers leaving the city's main station daily is being blamed on the credit crunch.

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Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Three Trends Driving U.S. Toward Economic and Dollar Collapse / Economics / US Debt

By: Eric_deCarbonnel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTREND #1: Falling Tax revenues . Every month of job losses and every company that fails results in more lost tax revenue. In 2007, the government collected $2.568 trillion from taxpayers. It will be less this year and next.

If the revenue loss follows the pattern set during the great depression, it will look like this:

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Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 10-14) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week ahead in financial markets will see a modest quantity of data that will hit the tapes largely on Thursday and Friday. The major market moving events will be the Friday release of the October advance retail sales data and the Thursday release of the US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims and the US Budget Statement. On Friday in Frankfurt Germany, Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet will lead a cast of global central banking all-stars that will address monetary policy within the current global financial crisis.

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Economics

Saturday, November 08, 2008

What the Obama Presidency Means for the U.S. Economy 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: David_Urban

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe election of Barack Obama to the office of President of the United States on November 4, 2008 was historic for many reasons. Investors, however, are worried for a number of reasons. Democrats have been known as the tax and spend party, although the Clinton administration went a long way to begin changing investors' psychology towards the party.

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Economics

Saturday, November 08, 2008

The Impact of Deleveraging on Economic Growth / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

  • Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The Problems of Deleveraging
  • 1.2 Million Jobs and Counting
  • Be Careful of Geeks Bearing Recovery Data
  • Back to 1982

In general, we consider it a good thing to save money and to "owe no man anything save love." But what happens when a debt-happy society wakes up and decides that saving is a good thing for everybody? What happens when banks and hedge funds decide (or are forced) to reduce their debt? What happens when businesses of all sizes find it harder to get loans to operate?

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Economics

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Obama Could Avoid Depression by Rebuilding America's Crumbling Infrastructure / Economics / US Economy

By: Jennifer_Barry

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn a daily basis, we drive on paved roads over bridges, take a hot shower, turn the lights on and off, and take out the trash. Most of us take these experiences for granted, expecting that our needs will be satisfied in a safe and convenient way. The universal availability of these services differentiates a modern country from a developing nation.

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Economics

Saturday, November 08, 2008

United States in Recession End of the Debate / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Andy_Sutton

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe happy rhetoric of earlier this year has faded. The Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman are no longer extolling America's strong economic fundamentals. The media is no longer talking about a soft landing and I haven't heard the term ‘Goldilocks' mentioned in what feels like a dog's age. While our leaders have referred to the ‘challenges' that we face and the very real possibility of a ‘downturn', it is very obviously out of vogue to call this reality what it is – a recession. However, history has left us with some pretty good indicators that may be used to either confirm or deny a recession and along with it give us one of the many answers to what is bothering Wall Street these days.

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Economics

Friday, November 07, 2008

Jobs Contract 10th Straight Month; Unemployment Soars To 6.5% / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBefore taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.

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Economics

Friday, November 07, 2008

Non-Farm Payrolls Collapse in October as U.S. Unemployment Rate Soars / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

The October estimate of non-farm payrolls saw firms reduce payrolls by -240K for the month and the rate of unemployment jump sharply to 6.5%. Revisions made by Labor Department subtract an additional -179K over the past two months. The decline in October's payroll tally has reduced employment by 1.2mln during the first 10 months of 2008, with over half of that total occurring over the past 90 days. The household survey saw a decline of -297K, which is above its three-month average of -287K. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 603K to 10.1mln in October.

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Economics

Thursday, November 06, 2008

The Economic Deflation Debate: Why this time is different / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Lee

It's fascinating to study and observe the distribution of wealth. History has shown great nations and companies that rose to the top from nothing and subsequently fell to nothing.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Global Economic Recession, Country by Country / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere was an interesting post on the Big Picture Blog last week by guest writer Michael Panzner. The post is called A World of Faltering Growth . Here is the key chart.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

UK Economic Slump Accelerates towards Recession / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK economy battered and bruised by the fallout from the financial crisis as bankrupt banks sought a huge £500 billion bailout form the UK tax payer, was further hit today by the continuing contraction of Britain's industrial base as UK factory production continued to fall by 0.8% for a seven straight month, which acts as further confirmation of an imminent deep recession. The slump in sterling of 25% has been voiced as a boost to Britain's export sector, however clearly this is not happening as the already diminished industrial sector continues to shrink and therefore even if the crash in sterling does boost exports, the impact on the overall economy is expected to be muted as the industrial export sector has shrunk to less than 4% of the economy, whilst the huge financial services sector in terms of % of GDP continues to implode.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Nearing Impact: A U.S. Debt Crash Course / Economics / US Debt

By: David_Haas

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the past decade or so, I have occasionally seen an article - or sometimes a chart - referencing the dollar amount of marginal or “extra” U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is generated by adding each new dollar of government debt . In other words, with their unique brand of wisdom, the federal government tries to “buy growth with debt”.

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Economics

Monday, November 03, 2008

Fed's Tough Balancing Act Between Inflation and Deflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSave me – I'm sure that's exactly the sentiment many hedge fund managers share today. Why would this be? Answer: Because as Doug Noland aptly puts it in his regular column this week, The Arb Game Is Over , meaning that on a macro-basis the larger speculation / credit cycles have turned lower; and, they will continue to fall for some time, taking many an unaware hedge fund manager with them. In fact, and to be more blunt about it, the cash strapped hedge fund industry has likely also topped with the larger credit cycle, where increasing redemptions necessitate margin contraction on an accelerating basis. In this regard it should be noted aggregate margin debt levels remain high, meaning no matter what policy measures are taken to stem the tide, authorities are just pushing on a string. Of course this is not a problem in my estimation, as you will read further below.

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Economics

Monday, November 03, 2008

United States About to be Hit by Hyper-Inflationary Hurricane! / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Prolonged inflation (and, especially hyperinflation) cannot continue without increases in the monetary base..."

"A COUNTRY'S LONG-RUN INFLATION is caused primarily, or perhaps exclusively, by increases in its own monetary base," wrote Richard G.Anderson – a vice-president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis – in a 2006 paper.

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Economics

Monday, November 03, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 3-7) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe first week of November will see another heavy week of data releases on the calendar that will feature the first significant look at the data from the real economy in October, when the credit markets seized up. The primary market-moving event will be the Friday publication of the October estimate of non-farm payrolls that we expect to contract by -225K. The week will kick off with the release of the October ISM survey of manufacturing conditions nationwide, total vehicle sales and the construction spending report for September.

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Economics

Monday, November 03, 2008

United States Heading for Economic Depression and Dollar Collapse / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Eric_deCarbonnel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US headed for a depression AND a currency collapse. Americans will see their wealth wiped out as stocks and home values plunge, their cost of living soar as food and oil prices spike up, and their taxes increase as the government struggles to fund itself. To understand where the US is heading, we need to step back and take a look at the deep problems afflicting the US economy:

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