Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
UK Interest Rates Forecast to rise much higher due to rising Inflation and high Money Supply Growth / Economics / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Interest are set to to rise to 5% in November 2006, some market commentators are already seeing this as a potential peak despite REAL UK interest rates being at historic lows.
The spread between the base rate (4.75%) and RPI (3.6%), is currently at 1.3%, or marginally higher than the low set in 2003 of 1.1%, which preceded a rise in interest rates from 3.5% to 4.75%. This took the spread to 2%, since that time, RPI has risen and interest rates fell to 4.5%. This puts the UK under similar interest rate hike pressures as during the start of the rate hikes in 2003.
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Sharp fall in US Wholesale Inflation whilst Core inflation rises strongly / Economics / Strategic News
By: Sarah_Jones
US Wholesale inflation fell by the largest amount in more than three years in September 06, as a record drop in the cost of gasoline offset rising prices in a number of other areas. The U.S. Labour Department reported that wholesale prices overall fell 1.3 per cent last month, nearly double the decline that analysts had been expecting. Gasoline prices plummeted 22.2 per cent, the biggest one-month decrease on record. But at the same time core inflation rose strongly by 0.6%.
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Sunday, October 15, 2006
Prospects for UK Economy during 2007 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Sarah_Jones
UK economic growth picks up during 2006, after the slowdown during 2005, and is expected to rise to 2.25% this year (1.9% 2005) and 2.5% in 2007 though the Treasury is forecasting higher growth at 2.5% for 2006 and 3% for 2007.
The risks are that inflation rises to 3%, which would trigger a serious of sharp rate rises. This is a possibility given that domestic inflation far exceeds imported inflation, and thus inflation is less likely to be impacted by declining oil prices.
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Sunday, October 15, 2006
US Debt Mountain - How can it be serviced ? / Economics / US Debt
By: Sarah_Jones
The US in the financial year ending 2006, paid over $400 billion in interest on debt ! Following the 14 consecutive Fed rate what will happen when the debt needs to be reissued at these higher interest rates ? I.e. average debt maturity is less than 60 months with total US debt stands at $8 trillions. Thus interest payments are likely rise substantially in the coming years whilst at the same time the US is running an record annual budget deficit of over $500 billion.
So what can the Federal Reserve do to extricate the US from this developing crisis ?
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Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Hungary Problems - The Facts / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Phillipa_Green
The violent demonstrations continue on the streets, in response to the recording of the Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany admitting to lieing to the public in the run up to the last election on the dire condition of the hungarian economy.
In the 1990s Hungary was shown as a textbook example of a transition economy.
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Sunday, September 17, 2006
IMF Warns Housing Market could slow US GDP growth / Economics / US Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
The International Monetary Fund warned that the U.S. economy is headed for a slowdown caused by a cooling housing market, and that could drag on global growth.
The IMF revised downward its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.9 percent for 2007 from an estimate of 3.3 percent in April. This year, the U.S. is seen expanding 3.4 percent, the fund projected in its semiannual World Economic Outlook.
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Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Central Bankers declare War on Global Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
By Gary Dorsch :Editor, Global Money Trends magazine
For the past four years, the big-3 central banks were the world's “serial bubble blowers,” flooding the world with cheap money via historically low interest rates, in order to pump up stock markets and real estate values. However, with global economic growth running at 5% in the first half of 2006, the most robust multi-year expansion since the 1970's, there were serious side effects of surging energy and commodity prices, that are now feeding into consumer inflation.
Bank of England chief Mervyn King admitted on June 12 th , “During the fastest 3-year period of world economic growth for a generation, monetary policy around the world may simply have been too accommodative.” However, in order to correct the imbalance, a tighter global liquidity environment is required. “After a period of robust world economic growth, we approach a bumpier stretch of the road. A rebalancing of global demand is desirable, but the way ahead may not be smooth,” King said.
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Saturday, January 28, 2006
The True Cost of the War on Terror / Economics / Iraq War
By: Sarah_Jones
NEW STUDY SUGGESTS ECONOMIC COST OF IRAQ WAR MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY RECOGNIZED
A new study by two leading academic experts suggests that the costs of the Iraq war will be substantially higher than previously reckoned. In a paper presented to this week's Allied Social Sciences Association annual meeting in Boston MA., Harvard budget expert Linda Bilmes and Columbia University Professor and Nobel Laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz calculate that the war is likely to cost the United States a minimum of nearly one trillion dollars and potentially over $2 trillion.
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Saturday, January 01, 2005
Asset Deflation Crashes Through the Window / Economics / Deflation
By: Steve_Moyer
Sometimes you have to pay the piper, and we're going to have to pay the piper for a while. That's the way it is." ~ Frank Hamblen
The jig is up, my friends. The elephant that is asset deflation has slowly crashed through the big bay window straight onto our living room carpet and the no-fun part of speculative excess and leveraging (not to mention reckless borrowing and spending) has more than begun.
If you refuse to heed our advice, you will pay for it. Dearly.
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