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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, June 29, 2012

U.S. Economy Real GDP Composition Modified, Though Q1 Headline Remains Unchanged / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Although the headline was not changed, contributions of several components were modified. Consumer spending (+2.5% vs. +2.7% previous estimate), equipment and software (+3.5% vs. +3.9% previous estimate), exports (+4.2% vs. +7.2% prior estimate), inventories, and imports (+2.7% vs. +6.1% prior estimate) were revised down. Residential investment expenditures (+20% vs. +19.4% prior estimate) and structures (+1.9% vs. -3.3% prior estimate) were raised. In addition to the upward revisions, a smaller trade gap also helped to offset the downward revisions and leave the headline unchanged. There were upwards of each of the inflation measures.

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Economics

Friday, June 29, 2012

Europe Seeking Exit from Economic Woes / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: William_R_Thomson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestment Round Table of Singapore Business Times

PANELLISTS:

Charles Dallara: Managing director, Institute of International Finance

Richard Koo: Chief economist, Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo

Eisuke Sakakibara: Former vice-finance minister for international affairs of Japan

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Economics

Friday, June 29, 2012

U.S. Economy GDP, The Hood Looks OK But It's A Mess Underneath / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week the final revision to Q1 2012 GDP was released. The headline is simple, GDP remains unchanged at 1.9%. Not great but not horrible either, right? I mean 2% growth amid outright contraction in Europe is good. Perhaps the US has finally decoupled?

You don't need an economics degree (trust me on that one) to look underneath the hood and see that this "unchanged revision" was actually indicative of something more sinister. That the US economy is not only in trouble but is clearly "coupled."

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Economics

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Forget QE3, America Needs a Real Road and Job Stimulus / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow is the condition of roads that you drive On? Well, the roads that I drive on are so bad that they require a large truck or SUV to navigate at anything close to normal speeds. The potholes are alignment killers, and the horrible patches were slapped on so poorly that they become uneven speed bumps. And I reside in one of the top 5 largest cities in the U.S. with a lot of petro money that has done much better than most of other cities (e.g., the newly bankrupt Stockton, CA) during the financial downturn in the economy. It gets better yet; I'm talking about the better part of town instead of the lower revenue districts. So the question is how did we get to this state? And what are the likely solutions?

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Economics

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Here Comes the Hyperinfla​tionary Bailout Endgame / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Midas_Letter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn 2009, I wrote that the stimulus, tarp, and zero interest rates were going to result in a rally in the stock market, but that the fundamental causes of the 2008 financial crisis, of which the housing bubble collapse was only one outcome, were still present, and that the financial stimulus, which is effectively a tax on future generations, would compound those symptoms.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Global Economic Stalemate? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Why Read: Because the referenced article is a well-balanced, well-written, very brief - albeit somewhat simplistic - overview of the economic models of the United States and the Eurozone. The article also speaks to China and briefly references Brazil and India.

Featured Article: An article Monday written by Robert Samuelson, a Washington Post syndicated columnist. In this article, Mr. Samuelson describes the economic model of:

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Economics

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

The Great Depression Again? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy Read: Because it is foolish not to consider the possibility of depression, particularly in the face of the preponderance of commentary over the past many months that rampant inflation is on the horizon

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Economics

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

The Black Hole of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Global Picture and Where We Are Now

For the last few years we've watched as the Credit Crunch morphed into the Sovereign Debt crisis in Europe, which may re-cross the Atlantic to hit the U.S. Treasury market. During that time, we have watched a series of patch-up jobs on the crisis that have only succeeded in prolonging the crisis without any real structural remedies. We've also watched how central bankers have seen the 'buck' passed to them, when their role is strictly in support of government action that should have led the way. Central bankers are running out of tools to tackle the task they should never have been asked to tackle alone.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

What's Stifling U.S. Job Creation / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: Excessive government regulation and uncertainty over tax policies are what's restraining companies from hiring, former General Electric (NYSE: GE) CEO Jack Welch said on CNBC last Wednesday.

Welch joins a large number of economists and pollsters trying to sort out why the U.S. economy in 2012 hasn't rebounded more strongly from the 2008-2009 recession.

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Economics

Monday, June 25, 2012

Just A Cyclic Economic Ripple Or Structural Long Term Recession ? / Economics / Recession

By: Andrew_McKillop


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor global media, the 2008 crisis was signalled by the so-called "near collapse" of banks, insurers and mortgage lenders like the UK's RBS and Northern Rock, the USA's JP Morgan, AIG and a string of smaller players like Bear Stearns, but was above all symbolized by the outright collapse of Lehman Brothers in the autumn of 2008. Since the start of 2012, revealing the supposed "surprising weakness" of the OECD economies, and the more (or really) surprising weakness of the Chinese and Indian economies, the events of recent months ram home the basic facts. Emerging from what in 2008 was a finance-sector crisis in the OECD, easily explained by the perils of casino capitalism operating on debt to get and then lose its betting chips, the subsequent and present financial collapse: 1) is systemic not temporary; and 2) is global, affecting every country in the world. Through globalization of the economy, and supposed "global integrated capitalism" we now have a globally integrated catastrophe.

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Economics

Sunday, June 24, 2012

An Austrian Defense of the Euro, Hayek versus Keynes / Economics / Euro

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIntroduction: The Ideal Monetary System
Jesús Huerta de Soto writes: Theorists of the Austrian School have focused considerable effort on elucidating the ideal monetary system for a market economy. On a theoretical level, they have developed an entire theory of the business cycle that explains how credit expansion unbacked by real saving and orchestrated by central banks via a fractional-reserve-banking system repetitively generates economic cycles. On a historical level, they have described the spontaneous evolution of money and how coercive state intervention encouraged by powerful interest groups has distanced from the market and corrupted the natural evolution of banking institutions. On an ethical level, they have revealed the general legal requirements and principles of property rights with respect to banking contracts, principles that arise from the market economy itself and that, in turn, are essential to its proper functioning.[1]

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Economics

Sunday, June 24, 2012

The Unseen Economic Hand / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The assessment of economic growth based on Gross Domestic Product is a fallacy, because GDP is merely a measure of the amount of money in an economy. The one thing it does not measure, which is central to economic progress (note progress, not growth), is the level of entrepreneurial activity. This has important implications for the efficacy of government interventions and solutions to the current economic crisis.

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Economics

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Leading U.S. Economic Indicators and the Yield Curve, Where’s All That Money Going? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have often said that when someone is appointed to be a member of the Federal Reserve, they are taken into a back room and given a complete DNA change. They simply are not like you and me once they step out of that room, with the exception of Fisher and Lacker and a few colleagues who seem to be able to resist the infection. This week we will look at the recent action of the Fed and use that as a springboard to think about how effective Fed policy can be in an age of deleveraging. And if there is time, we simply must look at Europe. I started this letter in Texas and will finish it this morning in Spain.

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Economics

Sunday, June 24, 2012

U.S. Debt Crisis, This is Not America / Economics / US Debt

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the past few days, Henry Blodget at Business Insider posted a number of graphs, here and here, which depict something about the US economy that everybody knows to some extent or another, but that most of us won't have let thoroughly sink in. For some because the consequences are too opaque, for others because they are too scary. But make no mistake: we can only continue to ignore or misinterpret them at our own peril. And even then it's terribly late in the game.

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Economics

Friday, June 22, 2012

Reasons Why U.S. Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly) / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.

When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let's take a look at why.

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Economics

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Fed Downgrades U.S. Economic Outlook and Buys Insurance / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOf the Fed's three options available today (do nothing, engage in QE3, extend Operation Twist), it has chosen the diplomatic route. It appears the Fed was concerned that if it took the path of using only language to indicate support it could rock a fragile global financial system. Given that emergency aid could not be justified, QE3 was out of the question at the present time. The Fed has chosen an extension of Operation Twist as it provides insurance and has fewer avenues of criticism. The Fed indicated that an extension of maturities of its Treasury security holdings will not expire as of June but will remain in place until the end of 2012. The expectation is that this action would exert downward pressure on long term interest rates.

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Economics

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Economic Austerity Vs Debt Default / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"I have seen a grievous evil under the sun; wealth hoarded to the harm of its owners."    – Ecclesiastes 5:13

MOST PEOPLE still get it. Hardly anyone dares guess where it leads.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Economic Growth Versus Austerity: A U.S. Dollar Perspective / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAusterity versus Growth? Which economic model is sustainable? If it weren’t for those pesky bond vigilantes, it may be only politics. Let’s not get too excited that either path will work. Let’s look at the implications for investors with a focus on the U.S. dollar.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Krugman’s Greek Temple of Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: William_Anderson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA lot of people have weighed in on the Greek Morality Play, better known as the collapse of Greece's economy, and there is no shortfall of "wisdom" and advice. (For that matter, I made comments myself on the Greek situation during an interview on the RT network last March.)

Not surprisingly, Paul Krugman has weighed in again, and this time he not only claims that the problem is not enough inflation, but also deliberately ignores the real problem behind much of the Greek collapse: Greece's notorious and "bloated" (to use a term from Krugman's employer, the New York Times) bureaucracies led by its militant public employee unions. Instead, Krugman sets up other straw men and then claims that if only – If Only! – the Germans would crank up the monetary printing presses, Greece could be saved.

Before going into specifics, I would like to point out that Krugman is correct when he notes that a single currency union of many states indeed does impose certain fiscal restrictions. The examples he uses for the United States are dishonest, and even when explaining the European currency union, he does not tell the whole story, lapsing, instead, into his usual spate of accusations coupled with his demands for more inflation. (And, yes, I will explain my point later in this piece.)

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Economics

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Euro-zone Debt Crisis Puts Germany Between a Rock and Hard Place / Economics / Germany

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Why Read: In order to better understand Germany's Eurozone dependencies, and why Germany is between 'a rock and a hard place' as it makes decisions that likely will:

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