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1.UK House Prices BrExit Crash NOT Likely Despite London Property Market Weakness - Nadeem_Walayat
2.BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.BrExit Implications for UK Stock Market, Sterling GBP, House Prices and UK Politics... - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
6.FTSE and Sterling Brexit Trading, Deconstruction of the EU Referendum Result - Nadeem_Walayat
7.UK Interest Rate Cut to 0.25% Imminent and More QE Money Printing - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - Nadeem_Walayat
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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, July 29, 2016

US GDP Forecast Sinks to 1.8% Following Advance Economic Indicators Reports / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Today the Census Department released its first "Advance Economic Indicators Report". The new report adds wholesale and retail inventories to its existing International Trade in Goods report.

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Economics

Thursday, July 28, 2016

The State Of The Economy / Economics / US Housing

By: .....

If the economy was a game of bingo, we'd all be waiting for the 75 ball to get pulled.  Things are going well - in some areas, at least - and it looks like things will continue to improve.  Unfortunately, it also seems like we can't quite get back to that pre-2008 level of prosperity that we left so long ago.  Something seems to be missing, and there are disagreements on what that might be.  Waiting for that proverbial ball to get pulled is difficult, but it helps to know what to be on the lookout for.  As always, though, there are multiple possibilities.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

China Economic Troubles - Is Kyle Bass Finally Getting His Revenge? / Economics / China Economy

By: Clif_Droke

One of America's most prominent hedge fund managers is betting the farm that China's economic troubles are far from over. His bet centers around the U.S. dollar and by extension several Asian currencies. What happens to the dollar from here will determine whether this man's epic trading positions pays off, and China suffers a major setback, and whether his worst case scenario for the global economic outlook is merely a mirage. If he's right, the outcome of his bet will also affect the commodities market and perhaps even the equities market.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Deleveraging in Motion - Believe It or Not, Our Money Velocity Sucks! / Economics / Deflation

By: Harry_Dent

Dr. Lacy Hunt has been featured more than any outside speaker at our IES conferences. Why? Because he’s the only classical economist I fully admire and he is a successful bond investment manager in the real world that understands the trend towards deflation, despite unprecedented money-printing.

I love the gold bugs for being realistic and honest about the debt and financial asset bubble we’re in, especially when most mainstream economists and analysts are blind to it.

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Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2016

Ireland’s Bogus 26% GDP Economic Boost / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: MISES

Jonathan Newman writes: Ireland’s Central Statistics Office updated their 2015 national income figures and revealed a staggering 26.3% increase in real GDP from 2014 to 2015.

Paul Krugman called it “leprechaun economics.”

Joseph Salerno said “that’s unbelievable!”

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Economics

Monday, July 11, 2016

What US Economic Recovery; 62% of Americans Don't Even Have $1000 in Savings / Economics / US Economy

By: Sol_Palha

"He who is plenteously provided for from within, needs but little from without." ~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe

A key sign of financial health is savings; if one does not have a decent amount of money tucked away for a rainy day, it is a sign that all is not well. Americans have a very hard time sticking to a budget and saving, compared to their Asian counterparts. This is reflected in the startling revelation that over 62% of Americans do not even have $1000 in their savings account. Foreigners are shocked when they find out that Americans have so little money saved for a rainy day.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 05, 2016

Ready or Not the Recession May Have Already Arrived / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Michael_Pento

While investors have been focused on the perennial failed hope for a second half economic recovery, they have been missing the most salient point: the U.S. most likely entered into a recession at the end of last quarter.

That’s right, when adjusting nominal GDP growth for Core Consumer Price Inflation for the average of the past two-quarters the recession is already here. But before we look deeper into this, let’s first look at the following five charts that illustrate the economy has been steadily deteriorating for the past few years and that the pace of decline has recently picked up steam.

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Economics

Monday, July 04, 2016

BrExit Implications for UK Economy, Interest Rates, Bonds, Markets, Debt & Deficit, Inflation... / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

On Thursday 23rd of June 2016 the people of Britain voted to LEAVE the European Union surprising all including politicians, financial markets, big businesses, pollsters, bookmakers and even prominent LEAVE campaigners such as Nigel Farage who conceded defeat shortly after the polls closed at 10pm only to start backtracking a couple of hours later. The apparent surprise result that confounded most expectations has led to a spike in market and policy uncertainty as within hours of the decision David Cameron announced that he would be stepping down as PM and thus triggering a Tory leadership contest. Whilst Labour apparently went one step further by completely self destructing as 75% of Westminister Labour MP's attempt to eject Jeremy Corbyn, a civil war that looks set to destroy the Labour party. So Britain today remains rudderless without a functioning government or opposition let alone any idea of exactly how a BrExit vote will translate into real world impacts in every day peoples lives where now major business and economic decisions have been put on hold.

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Economics

Sunday, July 03, 2016

UK BrExit Inflation Forecasts Spike CPI to 3%, RPI 4% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst official UK CPI Inflation continues to hug near 0% at a rate of just 0.3% for May 2016, meanwhile RPI which is the closest official measure to real inflation has continued to nudge higher to 1.4%, which are set against the demand adjusted Real UK inflation rate of 1.8%. So deflation? Not really, real UK price Inflation is actually well above 1% and was already trending towards 2% before BrExit.

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Economics

Sunday, July 03, 2016

Deflation Is Blowing In On An Eastern Trade Wind / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Brexit is nowhere near the biggest challenge to western economies. And not just because it has devolved into a two-bit theater piece. Though we should not forget the value of that development: it lays bare the real Albion and the power hunger of its supposed leaders. From xenophobia and racism on the streets, to back-stabbing in dimly lit smoky backrooms, there’s not a states(wo)man in sight, and none will be forthcoming. Only sell-outs need apply.

The only person with an ounce of integrity left is Jeremy Corbyn, but his Labour party is dead, which is why he must fight off an entire horde of zombies. Unless Corbyn leaves labour and starts Podemos UK, he’s gone too. The current infighting on both the left and right means there is a unique window for something new, but Brits love what they think are their traditions, plus Corbyn has been Labour all his life, and he just won’t see it.

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Economics

Saturday, July 02, 2016

George Osborne's BrExit Excuse to Scrap UK Government Debt, Deficit and Borrowing Targets / Economics / UK Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne Friday announced that he would be using BrExit as an excuse to scrap the cornerstone of his economic policy, one of ending this parliament with an annual budget surplus, instead now stating:

"The referendum result is as expected likely to lead to a significant negative shock for the British economy. How we respond will determine the impact on people’s jobs and on economic growth.

The Bank of England can support demand.

The government must provide fiscal credibility so we will continue to be tough on the deficit but we must be realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of this decade as precisely the flexibility that our rules provide for, and we need to reduce uncertainty by moving as quickly as possible to a new relationship with Europe and being super competitive, open for business and free trading. That’s the plan and we must set to it.”

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2016

If We Don’t Do Anything, Obesity Will Bankrupt the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK COX: A recent study reported that 40% of American women are now obese; the highest percentage in history. Men have a slightly lower rate of obesity at 35%.

This is not the world that Malthusians like Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren (President Obama’s science advisor) predicted a few decades ago. By now, we were supposed to have run out of resources due to overpopulation and starved to death…

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Economics

Saturday, June 25, 2016

Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) / Economics / Venezuela

By: Steve_H_Hanke

With the arrival of President Hugo Chávez in 1999, Venezuela embraced Chavismo, a form of Andean socialism. In 2013, Chávez met the Grim Reaper and Nicolás Maduro assumed Chávez’ mantle.

Chavismo has not been confined to Venezuela, however. A form of it has been adopted by Rafael Correa – a leftist economist who became president of a dollarized Ecuador in 2007.

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Economics

Friday, June 24, 2016

Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Although a number of well-known hedge fund managers such as Kyle Bass and George Soros have publicly stated they believe some kind of a “hard landing” in China is coming, not everyone agrees.

Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital is not in the China “hard-landing” camp. He says while the Chinese economy is facing a number of headwinds and risks as it tries to adjust to a consumer-based model, the authorities are wisely taking a balanced, long-term view.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Billionaire Li Ka-Shing Says China’s Economic Outlook Is Bright / Economics / China Economy

By: Bloomberg

Trade surplus, income from services help counter mounting debt

Tycoon was criticised by Chinese state media last year

Hong Kong’s richest man said China’s economic outlook is bright in the long term, casting a vote of confidence in a country that’s growing at its slowest pace in a quarter century.

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