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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, July 24, 2015

What Blows Up Next? Part 1: Resource-Based Economies / Economics / Brazil

By: Money_Morning

The Great Recession and its aftermath was actually the best of times for countries with natural resources to sell. The US, Europe and Japan ran record deficits and cut interest rates to zero or thereabouts, sending hot money pouring into mining and energy projects around the world, while China borrowed (as it turned out) $15 trillion for an epic infrastructure build-out.

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Economics

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Commodities Damage to BRICs Economic Cushion / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Aside from $ trillions in monetary stimulus from the world's major central banks, a major source to the recovery from the 2008-9 global financial crisis emerged from the BRICs economies. The dependence on commodities exports from Brazil, Russia and China proved instrumental in these economies' rapid comeback thanks to the cushion from rapid gains in agricultural and energy prices from 2002 to 2008. But now that agricultural commodities have crashed, metals crumbled and energy plummeted, what becomes of the BRICs engine to the world economy?

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Economics

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Japan Ageing Population Still a Problem With No Solution / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

There’s a village in Japan where the dead outnumber the living, and I don’t mean the ancestors in the cemetery. The bodies are dispersed around the small town of Nagoro.

It’s a small community of some 35 people, most in their 60s or older. The place is so sparsely populated that the locals consider their 150-plus dead a part of their community.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Worker Productivity and Modern-Day Horse Manure / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

“They just use your mind and they never give you credit. It’s enough to drive you crazy if you let it.”

– Dolly Parton, “Working 9 to 5”

Almost everyone wants to be more productive. I include myself in that group – there are lots of ways I could be more productive. When I have conversations with people I think are very productive, they almost always tell me they wish they were more productive. What more could anyone expect from them?

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Economics

Monday, July 20, 2015

The Fed’s Confusion Over the "Natural Rate" of Unemployment and Inflation / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Frank_Shostak

In May, the US unemployment rate stood at 5.5 percent against the rate of 5.3 percent for the “natural unemployment,” also known as the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU).

According to the popular view, once the actual unemployment rate falls to below the NAIRU, or the natural unemployment rate, the rate of inflation tends to accelerate and economic activity becomes overheated. (This acceleration in the rate of inflation takes place through increases in the demand for goods and services. It also lifts the demand for workers and puts pressure on wages, reinforcing the growth in inflation).

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Economics

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Canada in Recession Admits Canadian Central Bank, Operation Twist? / Economics / Recession 2015

By: Mike_Shedlock

... The Solution: More Bubbles; Operation Twist Canadian Style?

The Bank of Canada admitted on Wednesday that Canada was in Recession. Well sort of.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is afraid to speak the "R-Word". Instead, Poloz phrased it this way: "Real GDP is now projected to have contracted modestly in the first half of the year."

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Economics

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: James_Quinn

The government released their monthly CPI report this week. Even though it came in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, they and their mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media dutifully downplayed the uptrend. They can’t let the plebs know the truth. That might upend their economic recovery storyline and put a crimp into their artificial free money, zero interest rate, stock market rally. If they were to admit inflation is rising, the Fed would be forced to raise rates. That is unacceptable in our rigged .01% economy. There are banker bonuses, CEO stock options, corporate stock buyback earnings per share goals and captured politician elections at stake.

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Economics

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Euro-zone ‘Plan B’ Needed As Euro One Recession Away From Implosion – David McWilliams / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: GoldCore

- Euro is one recession away from implosion – David McWilliams
- Mismanagement of euro “both laughable and terrifying”
- “When economic negotiations stop making economic sense, you should begin to question the motives of the EU”
- Germany is out of control
- Successful British exit will be model for other countries
- Euro membership is now conditional
- “Countries that don’t play ball with Germany will see their banking system used against their democratically elected politicians”
- Investors and savers need “PLAN B”

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Economics

Thursday, July 16, 2015

The UK’s Growing Economies / Economics / UK Economy

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Since the Economic Downturn in 2008, economic adjectives have been ubiquitous and we hear and read daily of an ailing or buoyant; expansionary or inflationary; bullish or recessionary economy. Optimistic or pessimistic perspectives on economic matters are often a result of one’s portfolio or even their political leanings and, consequently, many people are influenced by Medias need to define an economy as ‘In or Out of Recession’. Often the accepted formula of two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth or contraction in a sector fuels their abysmal report. Others such as Chief Economic optimist Joe Grice of The Office of National Statistics (ONS) see no statistical basis to characterise the economy as recessionary. He states, “Overall, in recent years, the economy appears to have been on a bumpy plateau, with an upward trend but at well below historic growth rates.”

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Economics

Monday, July 13, 2015

The Potemkin Bank of China / Economics / Central Banks

By: Michael_Pento

In the midst of an intense global economic slowdown that began in 2008, China's economy amazingly appeared to be unaffected. Defying the world-wide real estate collapse, China's GDP grew by an impressive 8.7% in 2009. Fueled initially by a $586 billion stimulus package, China would end up plowing and additional $20 trillion dollars into a fixed asset bubble that was designed to produce the government's desired GDP print.

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Economics

Friday, July 10, 2015

Labour Productivity Misconceptions / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Alasdair_Macleod

In the media warm-up for Wednesday's UK budget, we were told of Britain's poor productivity and Chancellor Osborne subsequently confirmed that his priority is to address it. Comparative figures for Europe quoted by the BBC were sourced from the OECD and are replicated in the chart below.

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Economics

Thursday, July 09, 2015

U.S. Economy Slouches toward Recession as Eurozone Crisis Widens / Economics / US Economy

By: MoneyMetals

Stefan Gleason writes: Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen may have missed her window of opportunity to raise interest rates. The economic data no longer paint a picture of even a tepid recovery. Since the start of the year, key indicators for the economy began pointing toward recession.

Add to that the recent Eurozone chaos surrounding the Greek default and a 30% crash in the Chinese stock market, and economic pressures are growing by the day.

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Economics

Thursday, July 09, 2015

Greece Enters Its Crack-Up Boom - The War on Cash / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Rubino

The Austrian School of economics has a concept called a “crack-up boom” in which a critical mass of people conclude that their government is actively trying to devalue its currency.

Consumers respond by front-running the government, spending their paychecks immediately in order to convert their soon-to-be-less-valuable money into real things. Merchants, not happy about the sudden influx of suspect currency (and sensing the panic of their customers) hold out for ever-higher prices, causing inflation to spike. But it’s a special kind of inflation, driven not by a sudden increase in the money supply but by collapsing confidence among holders of the currency.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Greece is Just the First of MANY Countries That Will Be Going Belly-Up / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: Graham_Summers

ALL of the so called, “economic recovery” that began in 2009 has been based on the Central Banks’ abilities to rein in the collapse.

The first round of interventions (2007-early 2009) was performed in the name of saving the system. The second round (2010-2012) was done because it was generally believed that the first round hadn’t completed the task of getting the world back to recovery.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Greece Crisis and the Top Demographic Trends of Our Time / Economics / Demographics

By: Harry_Dent

Greece is not the place to be right now.

Its citizens are capped out at $67 a day on the ATM. Its pensioners are pinching pennies. Its doctors are leaving in droves. Its long-term demographics are deplorable, making the chances for recovery more and more abysmal. It’s a nightmare!

I’ve already explained that large-scale debt deleveraging will be one of the triggers that sends the global economy back into crisis. Now that Greece has defaulted on its $1.7 billion IMF payment, they’re looking more and more like the beginning of the end.

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