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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, July 25, 2014

Geopolitics and Markets Red Flags Raised by the Fed and the BIS on Risk-taking / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Growing geopolitical risk is on everyone’s mind right now, but in today’s Outside the Box, Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan Asset Management leads off with a helpful reminder: the only time since WWII that a violent conflict has had a medium-term negative effect on markets was in 1973, when the Israeli-Arab war led to a Saudi oil embargo against the US and a quadrupling of oil prices. And he backs up that assertion with an interesting table of facts labeled “War zone countries as a percentage of total world… [population, oil production, GDP, etc.].”

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Economics

Friday, July 25, 2014

The Coming Economic Slump / Economics / Global Economy

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Governments and central banks have made little or no progress in recovering from the Lehman crisis six years ago. The problem is not helped by dependence on statistics which are downright misleading. This is particularly true of real GDP, comprised of nominal GDP deflated by an estimate of price inflation. First, we must discuss the inflation adjustment.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Reflections on the Global Misery Index / Economics / Social Issues

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Recently, I calculated misery index scores for 89 countries (see: Globe Asia May 2014). For any country, a misery index score is simply the sum of the unemployment, inflation and bank lending rates, minus the percentage change in real GDP per capita. A higher misery index score reflects higher levels of “misery”.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

GDP Economic Statistic : A Brief But Affectionate History / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Mauldin

“Measurement theory shows that strong assumptions are required for certain statistics to provide meaningful information about reality. Measurement theory encourages people to think about the meaning of their data. It encourages critical assessment of the assumptions behind the analysis.

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Economics

Monday, July 21, 2014

Inflation's Real Cause / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

According to Pimco's new Chief Economist, Paul McCulley, the Fed's war against inflation has been won! But, before we get out our party hats and plan the tickertape parade, we have to ask ourselves - for the past 27 years have we really been at war with inflation? Yes, during the late 1970's and early 80's a different Paul (Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve) waged a real battle against inflation. Mr. Volcker painfully took the Fed Funds rate to near 20 percent in June of 1981. The economy suffered a deep recession, it was a treacherous battle plan, but the Fed stayed the course because Volcker was correctly convinced that limiting the growth rate of the money supply was the key to popping asset bubbles, vanquishing inflation and establishing a sound economy.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

What the Facts Say About Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: Investors are terrified of inflation right now...

But is it really a worry? Is it poised to eat away at your savings and wreck your income investments?

Many newsletter writers and talking heads say yes... According to them, inflation is already a big problem.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

U.S. Economy Quarterly Review and Implications for 2014-2015 / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

This week’s Outside the Box is from an old friend to regular readers. It’s time for our Quarterly Review & Outlook from Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, who leads off this month with a helpful explanation of the relationship between the US GDP growth rate and 30-year treasury yields. That’s an important relationship, because long-term interest rates above nominal GDP growth (as they are now) tend to retard economic activity and vice versa.

The author adds that the average four-quarter growth rate of real GDP during the present recovery is 1.8%, well below the 4.2% average in all of the previous post-war expansions; and despite six years of federal deficits totaling $6.27 trillion and another $3.63 trillion in quantitative easing by the Fed, the growth rate of the economy continues to erode.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Never Mind Their Distrust of Economic Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy / Economics / Austrian Economics

By: F_F_Wiley

[O]f all the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself. – From The Economist, July 16, 2009.

It’s been five years since the The Economist magazine published the critical commentary  excerpted above. In hindsight, the noted reputational damage was neither lasting nor spectacular. As of today, we’d say it’s almost non-existent.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Knock, Knock. It's Deflation. Deflation Who? Video / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast warns that the contracting U.S. economy signals deflation ahead

In June, the U.S. government, revising its previous number, reported that the economy shrank by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014.

The steep plunge caught the bulls by surprise.

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2014

Global Economy Is Deteriorating Fast / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The insanity doesn’t just continue, it intensifies. The overriding idea is still that the more companies and individuals borrow, the better the economy goes. But that is nowhere near true. It may have been at some point in the past, but not now, not with debt levels at historic highs. Today’s problem is not that there is not enough credit or money available, as central banks try to make you believe, but that people are not spending what they have. Individuals are either maxed out or scared to be left with nothing, and companies see no opportunities for investing in productive projects (besides, they may well be maxed out too).

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2014

Why Is Zero Economic Growth 'Unexpected' ? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Always Unexpected
Each monthly decline in leading economic indicators, when it happens in the Eurozone, as in the US or Japan, China, Brazil, India or elsewhere, is always “unexpected”. Why is this?

For example the March, April, May and June declines for the Eurozone were each time titled “unexpected” by newswires and mainstream media the month following each “surprise”. Taking the case of Reuters, it reported April 14  that Eurozone industrial output had fallen in March “for the first time since August” so this was able to be called unexpected. Then the decline continued in April.

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Economics

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Marc Faber: Africa is Not Going to Be Another Southeast Asia / Economics / Africa

By: Submissions

Georgi Ivanov writes: In the last Squawkonomics interview with Marc Faber, we addressed an entire range of questions impacting regions of the global economy, including one of the most tantalizing topics: will Africa become another Southeast Asia and become the new hotspot growth region of the global economy? After decades and centuries of predictions of an African rise, will it finally be Africa's turn for robust economic development?

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Economics

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

This Is Disgusting — And the Food Sounds Gross Too / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Rubino

It is by now generally understood, at least in the sound money community, that inflation is much higher than the government admits and that the true extent of the problem is being hidden in various ways. But the specifics keep getting more and more disturbing. Here’s a recent Phoenix Capital note (via Zero Hedge) on the adulteration of our “food.”

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Economics

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Why Seattle’s Minimum Wage Hike Matters to Seniors / Economics / Wages

By: Don_Miller

The US is gearing up for mid-term elections this November 4—so much so that Rolling Stone announced the relaunch of the “Rock the Vote” campaign last month (according to one of the younger members of my team). And just like clockwork, minimum wage is making headlines again too. It’s déjà vu all over again.

At a breakfast some 20 years ago, I sat next to a prominent, high-ranking US senator now long retired. He showed us data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating that every time the minimum wage went up, more unemployment followed. Businesses were forced to ship jobs offshore—whether they wanted to or not—and started looking for ways to automate low- or unskilled jobs.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Real Earnings of Private Employees Declined Again in May / Economics / Wages

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. Here is a look at two key numbers in last week’s monthly employment report for June:

  • Average Hourly Earnings
  • Average Weekly Hours

The government has been tracking the data for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees for decades. But coverage of Total Private Employees only dates from March 2006.

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