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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, January 20, 2017

Real Leadership Requires True Globalization / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

After 2008, world trade, investment and migration have come to a standstill. What the world requires is responsible leadership, which rests on inclusive globalization.

During his first state visit to Switzerland and the World Economic Forum (WEF), President Xi Jinping hoped to inject a positive impetus for the recovery of the world economy.

Amidst rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Xi offered China's vision on economic growth and free trade in a global economy overshadowed by protectionism.

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Economics

Monday, January 16, 2017

The US Economy Could Turn Around in 2017—Or Crash / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Markets have rallied since November on the expectation that Trump and the Republicans will quickly enact a growth-oriented economic agenda—including tax cuts, regulatory relief, and targeted economic stimulus projects.

As I talk to people involved in the transition, I am gaining more confidence that a good part of that agenda will actually be realized. It’s clear to me that the right people want it to happen, at least.

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Economics

Saturday, January 14, 2017

It’s Confirmed, the US is Officially in Recession / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Graham_Summers

The US is officially in a recession.

This won’t show up in the “official” data… because the official data is fiction. GDP numbers might as well be in a Harry Potter novel, they’re that inaccurate and ridiculous.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

10 Potential Black Swans and Opportunities for the US Economy in 2017 / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

We’ve reached that wonderful time of year when financial pundits pull out their forecaster hats and take a crack at the future. This time the exercise is particularly interesting because we’re at several turning points. Any one of them could remake the entire year overnight.

I should probably say up front that I am actually somewhat optimistic about 2017—optimistic, meaning I think we will Muddle Through—but that’s a lot better outcome than I was expecting five months ago. However, midcourse corrections may be warranted.

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Economics

Sunday, January 08, 2017

In a Lawless World, Rules STILL Matter / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

While economics is a science and should be treated as such, economic forecasting is both a science and an art at the same time. However, anyone can forecast. Just like anyone can forecast the weather. To do so accurately and furthermore to do so frequently is a true talent. We think of it along the lines of the ability to hit a major league fastball; a gift granted to maybe 1 in 500 or a thousand babies each year. Then add to that the ability to hit a major league fastball for an average of .300 over an entire career and we’re talking a few babies in an entire generation.

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Economics

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Will Trump Bring Inflation to America’s Shores? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

By Stefan Gleason: Something is brewing in the economy. Since the election of Donald Trump, interest rates have spiked, copper prices have surged, and various sectors of the stock market have swung “bigly” on speculation of what “Trumponomics” will bring.

Scores of triumphant Republican commentators are already painting a bullish picture of the Trump economy. The GOP – which will control the White House, Congress, and most state governments – has a rare opportunity to implement a pro-growth agenda.

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Economics

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Trump Protectionism, Trade Chief Peter Navarro – and The Quest To Demonize China / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

While most Americans view China as friendly though not as an ally, those who favor demonizing China seek to change both perceptions and realities. Starting in January, these trade protectionists will lead US policies in the White House.

Recently, President-elect Trump chose Harvard-trained economist Peter Navarro to head the newly-created National Trade Council (NTC) in the White House to oversee industrial policy. Targeting the trade deficit is expected to pave way to Trump’s “First America” trade protectionism.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Warnings We’ll Wish We’d Heeded — Plunging US Jobless Claims / Economics / Unemployment

By: John_Rubino

It’s the same story every time: Imbalances build up during a recovery but most investors ignore them because good times have become the new normal and the uptrend seems bullet-proof. Then things fall apart and everyone wishes they’d paid attention to history.

This series will cover a few of the more glaring examples of late-cycle myopia, beginning with jobless claims, i.e., the number of people joining the ranks of the unemployed.

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Economics

Monday, December 19, 2016

A KEYNESIAN CHALLENGE: Prove Deflation is Bad For ME! / Economics / Deflation

By: Gordon_T_Long

'Mish' Shedlock and Gordon T Long discuss a number of outstanding issues in 2016 that will become Themes in 2017.

Economic Challenge to Keynesian's

Mish is quite emphatic that:

"Of all the widely believed but patently false economic beliefs is the absurd notion that falling consumer prices are bad for the economy and something must be done about them. The BIS did a study and found routine deflation was not any problem at all.

“Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the BIS study.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

China's Unfinished Trade Revolution / Economics / China

By: STRATFOR

Dec. 11 marks the 15th anniversary of China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Measured by its impact on the Chinese economy, which has grown almost tenfold since 2001, accession to the WTO was no less momentous than the epochal changes ushered in by the start of "Reform and Opening" in 1978 or the fiscal and political recentralization that followed the 1989 Tiananmen crisis. In the scale and speed of changes it wrought on Chinese society and politics, WTO accession was hardly less revolutionary than the Great Leap Forward of 1958-1961 or the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976. And in terms of their import for the structure of the global economy, few events in recent memory equal China's entry into the organization. By virtually any indicator, Dec. 11, 2001, was an inflection point not only for China's economy but also for much of the world's. But the anniversary also highlights how Chinese integration into the global economy remains incomplete.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Why Market, Economic Collapse isn't on the Menu / Economics / Economic Collapse

By: Clif_Droke

The word "collapse" instantly conjures primal feelings of both fear and excitement whenever we hear it. We fear it because it evokes our collective belief that collapse is fatal and final, yet it excites our imagination to the possibility, however, remote, that perhaps we'll be among the lucky few to survive and even prosper from it.

Whether in reference to a financial market crash or the collapse of government, the very idea has given birth to a plethora of writings on the subject. Indeed, some of the top selling books in the financial literature category in recent years have had collapse as the subject matter, for writers instinctively know they can always count on a visceral reaction from their readers whenever they write of it.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Do Larger Federal Budget Deficits Stimulate Spending? Depends On Where The Funding Comes From / Economics / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

I’d like to share a counterintuitive argument against the concept that fiscal deficits and/or infrastructure spending consititute effective economic stimulus. It comes from Paul Kasriel (one of my favorite reads when he was at Northern Trust, before he retired). He always has a way of looking at things from different angles than everybody else does.

Paul notes that the post-election US stock market rally has been due in part to the expectation that the Trump administration will enact stimulative fiscal policies, which in turn will jumpstart growth. But Paul begs to differ on that last point.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Trump’s Private Sector Appointments Signal A Rollback Of The Regulatory State / Economics / Market Regulation

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I feel good about the nomination of Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary. A banker (a not a political hack) in that seat is all right by me. Seriously. And Wilbur Ross as Commerce Secretary? Terrific.

I can’t tell you how happy I am to have private sector guys in these positions of power.

I’ll be candid—for eight years, under Obama, business was the enemy. That mindset is changing. It seems foreign because it’s been so long.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Italy’s Banking Crisis Is Nearly Upon Us / Economics / Financial Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

There is a high degree of probability (approaching 90%, I’d say) that Italy will experience a severe banking crisis in the next few quarters. Perhaps they can stave off the problem for a year, but something will have to be done about the banks.

Italian GDP per person lagging the rest of Europe

Italian citizens haven’t had much fun the past decade, judging from their GDP. You can see on the left side of the chart below that GDP per person has lagged the EU since 1995. Worse, it kept falling after 2009, even as Italy’s neighbors recovered.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

A Closer Look at Our Recent US Employment Numbers / Economics / Employment

By: Rodney_Johnson

Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 178,000 jobs – with 156,000 in the private sector and 22,000 in government – which is right in line with the monthly average for 2016.

But let’s dig a little deeper past the headline numbers. For years we’ve argued that there’s more to the story than just the number of jobs created. We want to know, and our economy depends on, how much money people are paid.

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