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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, October 23, 2014

U.S. Economy Faltering Momentum, Debt and Asset Bubbles / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

I featured the thinking of Dr. Lacy Hunt on the velocity of money and its relationship to developed-world overindebtedness and the potential for deflation in this week’s Thoughts from the Frontline, and I thought you’d like to peruse Lacy’s entire recent piece on the subject.

Lacy takes the US, Europe, and Japan one by one, examining the velocity of money (V) in each economy and bolstering the principle, first proposed by Irving Fisher in 1933, that V is critically influenced by the productivity of debt. Then, turning to the equation of exchange (M*V=Nominal GDP, where M is money supply), he demonstrates that we shouldn’t be the least bit surprised by sluggish global growth and had better be on the lookout for global deflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

The Last Days Of The Economic Growth Story / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I am thinking about the similarities between a financial crisis and for instance a family crisis, the death of a loved one or close friend, a divorce, or a personal bankruptcy.

And I wonder why in the case of our recent (aka current) financial crisis, we allow nothing to enter our communications, and our train of thought, but the idea of recovery and a return to growth. Has everyone always reacted that way after earlier financial crises – history is full of them -, or is something else going on?

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Economics

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

The Fed’s New Labor-Market Measure / Economics / Employment

By: Frank_Shostak

Economists at the Federal Reserve have devised a new indicator, which they hold will enable US central bank policymakers to get better information regarding the state of the labor market. The metric is labeled as the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

Note that one of the key data points Fed policymakers are paying attention to is the labor market. The state of this market dictates the type of monetary policy that is going to be implemented.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

The Similarities Between Germany and China / Economics / GeoPolitics

By: STRATFOR

I returned last weekend from a monthlong trip to both East Asia and Europe. I discovered three things: First, the Europeans were obsessed with Germany and concerned about Russia. Second, the Asians were obsessed with China and concerned about Japan. Third, visiting seven countries from the Pacific to the Atlantic in 29 days brings you to a unique state of consciousness, in which the only color is gray and knowing the number of your hotel room in your current city, as opposed to the one two cities ago, is an achievement.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

The Death Rattle of Europe’s Statist Dream / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Rick_Ackerman

Europe’s all-too-predictable relapse into recession is gathering force, threatening not only the pipe dream of economic and political unity, but eroding grandiose illusions that have helped prop up the world’s financial house of cards. The unwillingness of France in particular to play by the EU’s — i.e.,  Germany’s — rules appears to have doomed the EU dream. The idea of a borderless Europe bound by a common currency and a shared desire to forever banish war from the Continent was a lofty one, but it was mired from the start in deeply rooted political animosities, grass-roots skepticism and bureaucratic overreach. Now these problems, along with a great many others, have turned the EU project into a Tower of Babel. A million pages of meticulously codified EU rules might as well have been written in cuneiform, so inscrutable and arcane have they become.

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Economics

Monday, October 20, 2014

Challenge to Keynesians 'Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit' / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

The ECB has been concerned about falling consumer prices. I propose that's 100% stupid, yet that's the concern.

When the euro declined vs. the US dollar, the ECB was happy that inflation would inch back up. The fear now is that falling oil prices will take away the alleged gain of a falling euro.

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Economics

Sunday, October 19, 2014

'Confidence' Is a Corollary of a Fiat Culture / Economics / Fiat Currency

By: Jesse

Economists are fretting about the current notion that the US is caught in a secular stagnation. They are concerned because they believe that this is what is driving stock prices lower. And lower stock market prices are upsetting to their masters.

They are concerned that people are believing in stagnation as a sort of urban myth, and that makes it real. Seriously. Belief is not an effect, but a primary cause in their minds.

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Economics

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Reasons the Bernanke-Yellen Asset-Price Inflation May Be Nearing Its End / Economics / Inflation

By: Joseph_T_Salerno

There are strong indications that the remarkable run up of asset prices in the last few years is beginning to run out of steam and may be on the verge of collapse. We will leave aside the question of whether the asset inflation is symptomatic of a garden-variety inflationary boom or is a more virulent bubble phenomenon in which prices are rising today simply because buyers anticipate that they will rise tomorrow.

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Economics

Friday, October 17, 2014

Why The Business Cycle is Failing / Economics / Business Cycles

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Since WW2 economic theorists have posited that demand in the economy could be stimulated by a combination of deficit spending by the government and by suppressing interest rates. The separation of demand from production was promoted by Keynes and interest rate management of the economy by monetarists, though there is considerable overlap between the two. Yet no progress in economic management has been achieved: instead we appear to be on the brink of a major economic dislocation.

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Economics

Friday, October 17, 2014

America Flirts With Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie,” said brand-new EC head Jean-Claude Juncker back in May 2011. I’m thinking the last few days have been serious enough to warrant some real whoppers from Brussels. And beyond.

Yesterday, one hour after the S&P reached its low point, not only was it deemed necessary to bring out the Plunge Protection Team, Fed grey head Janet Yellen was trotted out as well to soothe the dark mood with rosy tales about the US economy.

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Economics

Thursday, October 16, 2014

The Inflation Imputation, Dear Saver, May You RIP / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

A note has been circulating among economists, calling into question the wisdom of another group of economists who wrote an open letter to the Federal Reserve a few years ago suggesting that one of the risks of their quantitative easing program was increased inflation. Since we have not seen CPI inflation, this latter group is calling upon the former to admit they were wrong, that quantitative easing does not in fact cause inflation. To no one’s surprise, Paul Krugman has written rather nastily and arrogantly about the lack of CPI inflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don't / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

In an article in the UK's Telegraph on October 10, veteran economic correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard laid bare the essential truth of the nearly universal current embrace of inflation as an economic panacea. While politicians, CEOs and economists talk about demand stimulus and the avoidance of a deflationary trap, Evans-Pritchard reminds us that inflation is all, and always, about debt management.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Is the Surge in Capital Goods Orders Due to Malinvestment? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Orders for US non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 0.6 percent in August after a 0.2 percent decline in July to stand at $73.2 billion. Observe that after closing at $48 billion in May 2009, capital goods orders have been trending up.

Most commentators regard this strengthening as evidence that companies are investing both in the replacement of existing capital goods and in new capital goods in order to expand their growth.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Price Deflation and Price Inflation Are Always “Optimal” / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Mateusz Machaj writes: Recently, the Polish economy experienced its first price deflation since the 1980s, which sparked in the country deflationphobia (or, as Mark Thornton calls it, apoplithorismosphobia).

Media sources and many economists focus on price inflation and price deflation as the source of various economic ills, but, contrary to much of the rhetoric, price inflation and price deflation are always “optimal” in the economic sense. At first, such a claim may seem controversial, since virtually all economists have something negative to say about either inflation or deflation. This concerns almost all schools of economic thought, mainstream and heterodox, including the Austrians.

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Economics

Monday, October 13, 2014

When The Economy Went Ponzi / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Adam Smith and the Ponzi Economy
Like the archetypal images of love that were handed down by early Greek philosophers, of Erotic love, Parental love, and what later became Christian or Dutiful love towards fellow persons and living things of all kinds, the supposed “classic image” of the economy is the “Wealth of Nations”. Taken by the “Neolibs” of the 1980s and their surviving throw-offs as a timeless ode to invisible but all-powerful “market forces”, this classic model was handed down by their guru – Adam Smith.

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