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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Inflation, Gold and the Government / Economics / Inflation

By: David_Petch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflation as defined by Ludwig von Mises, “Inflation is defined as monetary expansion through introduction of physical fiat currency or issuance of credit”.

Printing money has a delayed effect to hit the system; it will be circulating in the system and travel through a series of bubbles. The end game for inflationary cycles results from excessive money chasing commodities. The phenomenon of inverse relationships between bull markets in broad market indices and commodities is well known…commodity prices decline to such low levels that supplies become critical, thereby driving up prices. An example of delays in pricing hitting the consumer lies in examination of Producers Pricing Index (PPI) and the Consumers Pricing Index (CCI).

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Economics

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Inflation Deflation Battle / Economics / US Economy

By: Fake_Ben

Round One Winner: Schiff - In a recent article, I wrote about Mike “Mish” Shedlock of the blog Global Economic Trend Analysis ( http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com ) and Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. ( http://www.europac.net/ ). I separated them into the camps of the deflationistas (Shedlock) and the inflationistas (Schiff) .

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Economics

Monday, March 31, 2008

Further Weakness in the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_J_Nolte

The worst quarter since the first half of 2002 will be in the books at the close today, and not a day too soon. The news of the week included still poor housing data, although a few glimmers of hope in that the declines were less than originally estimated. Too were the refi and new purchase activity, reported by Mortgage Bankers Association, jumped as mortgages rates moved modestly lower. This week will be loaded with the usual first week data, including employment, which will likely show another contraction in payrolls, further fueling those sitting on the fence that we are indeed in a recession.

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Economics

Monday, March 31, 2008

US Interest Rate Cuts Ineffective If Banks Do Not Lend / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWelcome to the Weekly Report. Click on the link for my update on Moral Hazard written for Livecharts earlier this week. Stress continues to increase across all markets, a fact that should make all investors stop and think about the root cause.

First up, we dig into the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for Q4 '07. Specifically I want to look at the growth of Domestic Non-Financial Debt:

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Economics

Friday, March 28, 2008

Bail me out Bernanke / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Peter_Schiff

Now that the Fed and the Treasury Department have clumsily come to the rescue of the financial titans of Wall Street, it is now politically dangerous to resist similar pleas from just about everybody else. Populism is emerging as a dominant theme is this election year, and with so much largesse showered on Bear Stearns and JP Morgan Chase, politicians are demanding even more generous terms for consumers. In Washington , it seems that two wrongs apparently make a right. Another downside to corporate bailouts is that they provide the critics of free market capitalism with plenty of excuses to weigh down American economic vitality with even more unnecessary regulation.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Three Lessons from the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article Sean Brodrick writes: A huge bull market in commodities takes a downturn. Equities are getting clobbered. The nation is groaning under insurmountable debts after the banks throw caution to the wind.

It's an election year, and some people say the market is over-regulated — others that it's not regulated enough. All the while, weather is making headlines — in fact, some people believe the weather could herald the beginning of the end.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

New Economic and Financial System to Arise from the Credit Crisis Ashes / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week I take great pride and pleasure in being able to bring you a recent letter from my very good friend Peter Bernstein. I asked him to let me publish this, as I think this is one of the more important, thought-provoking pieces I have read in a very long time. I am grateful for that permission, as you will be when you read this. I would take the time to read it through several times. Read this paragraph from the beginning of the letter to get an idea of the thought path down which Peter is going to take us:

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Economics

Monday, March 24, 2008

Savings and the US Economy- Fallacy of Including Home Ownership in Savings / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA while ago David Malpass, financial writer and chief economist at Bear Stearns, (and I do mean that Bear Stearns) argued that US savings are under reported because they exclude "cash flow improvements from realized gains on equities, houses, and mortgage refinancing." Now I am not referring to Malpass as a means to take a swipe at Bear Stearns and the quality of its advisors: that's the market's job. What Malpass did was to inadvertently draw attention to the confusion that reigns among the economic commentariat with respect to the nature of saving and its critical importance for economic welfare.

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Economics

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Wall St. Stocks Rally on Philly Fed US Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

"NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped on Thursday, pushing the Dow briefly up more than 1 percent, as a reading on factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell by less than analysts' had forecast, improving views on the U.S. economic outlook."

Tell me. On what basis did "analysts" have to predict what the Philly Fed March factory activity headline would be? For that matter, on what basis do "analysts" have for predicting what weekly initial jobless claims will be.

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Economics

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Shadow of the Great Depression and 1970's Stagflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Every morning, when you look in the mirror, I want you to think 'What am I going to do today to increase the money supply?'..." John Ehrlichman, assistant to Richard Nixon, apparently speaking to Charles Pardee, a Federal Reserve governor,sometime in the early 1970s

SO WE'RE ALL agreed then.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

UK Inflation CPI Rises to 2.5% for 2009 UK Election? / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK Inflation as measured by the CPI Index rose to 2.5% for February, however the rise was wholly due to a change in the way the index is calculated without which the CPI would probably have remained unchanged. The more accepted RPI inflation index remained unchanged at 4.1%. Therefore the artificial boost to the CPI suggests the intention for the creation of a spike in UK CPI inflation now which will leave the indices in 12 months time, thus resulting in a drop in CPI inflation and hence have the prospects for interest rate cuts in the lead up to the summer of 2009, which could present Gordon Brown with an ideal opportunity to go to the polls.

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Economics

Monday, March 17, 2008

The Dual Paradigms Of Today's Stagflation and Deflation Macro Economic Conditions  / Economics / Stagflation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany are now categorizing current macro economic conditions as being an instance of stagflation . And while current circumstances definitely appear to be so, in my opinion one needs to go past the definition of stagflation to capture the essence of macro conditions at present, because this is not your father's economy. In the last inflation cycle witnessed in the 70's, wages were growing and people had savings, and we still had the disinflation period this sponsored up until millenniums turn to live through.

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Economics

Monday, March 17, 2008

US Economy Hit by Monetary Storm / Economics / Recession

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe current monetary crisis has brought forth an avalanche of opinions on what President Bush and the Fed need to do to arrest the dollar's decline and prevent a recession. But what really needs to be done? The quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles is betting that there will not be a recession, though there will be a significant downturn in the rate of growth. Of course, there is the usual caveat that if consumers reduce their purchases of big-ticket items this could bring on a recession.

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Economics

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Monopoly Goes Live…with an Inflationary Twist / Economics / Money Supply

By: David_Petch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMonopoly is one of the most popular board games ever created, which was first patented in 1935 by Charles Darrow. The object of the game is to accumulate as much of the property over the course of the game until everyone else is wiped out…there are more eloquent ways to define the rules, but the above definition is the blunt version.

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

The Road to Hyperinflation- Vive La France! / Economics / Stagflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week, as the financial sector began to give way under the unbearable weight of bad mortgage debt, the Federal Reserve stepped in to save the day. At least that's what it says in the script.

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

US Manipulated CPI Inflation Statistics- Stagflation 1980 and Now / Economics / Stagflation

By: Tim_Iacono

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere's been a lot of talk in recent months about how different the current period is from bouts of "stagflation" in the 1970s and early 1980s. According to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), "inflation" peaked in 1980 at around 14 percent or so and many pundits today say that we'll never see those levels ever again.

They're probably right ... but not for the reasons you might think.

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

US CPI Inflation Falls to 4%- Flashes Deflation Warning to Commodity Bulls Towards 2008 End / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US CPI Inflation came in flat for February, confounding consensus forecasts that called for a rise of 0.2%. Annualised CPI falls to 4% from 4.3% and is inline with my overall expectations as highlighted in the extensive article of 2nd March 08 - Credit Crisis Morphs Into Stagflation- Protect Your Wealth! Which concluded that deflationary forces would take hold towards the end of 2008 as illustrated by the graph below -

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

Asian Emerging Economies Are Still Booming! / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: It's 3:30 AM here in Bangkok as I write this edition of Money and Markets . Across the street from my apartment, four towers are rising toward the sky. A 52-story luxury condo development is under construction with crews working 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

It's hard to believe that the crane operators, now perched over the 22nd floor, can see what they are doing as they hoist up tons of rebar, bins full of cement, rolls of steel sheathing and stacks of glass.

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

UK Trade Goods Data 2007- Exports Fell by 10%, Imports Rose by 2% / Economics / UK Economy

By: HMRC

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Regional Trade in Goods estimates are released today, for the fourth quarter of 2007 .

Exports

•  Total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 was £218,919m.

•  The total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 fell by £24,902m (10 per cent) compared to the 12 months ending December 2006.

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Economics

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Patchy Nature of the Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe strange thing about myths is that while some have their basis in truth, for the most part they suffer from a dearth of reality. The same is true about today's well promulgated credit crisis. First let me admit, there clearly is a crisis in certain areas of the credit markets. For instance, there is definitive evidence of duress for hedge funds that hold Credit Default Obligations, especially in leveraged portfolios. A crunch also exists for mortgage lending companies that must issue asset-backed commercial paper.

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