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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, December 16, 2011

How an Economy Collapses… and How to Protect Yourself, Part 2 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Paul_Mladjenovic

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo recap the main point from Part one of this two-part essay series, I mentioned that the internal collapse of an economy occurs when it is overburdened by too much consumption (such as debt) and that the primary engine of this over-consumption is typically a government that has grown too big to sustain. The United States is definitely trending in that direction. I used my former country, Yugoslavia, as an example of what may occur.

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Economics

Friday, December 16, 2011

Global Economic Overview December 2011 / Economics / Global Economy

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMorgan Stanley recently downgraded its forecast for 2012 global growth to 3.5% from 3.8%. Remember in August, Morgan Stanley cut its global forecast for GDP growth down to 3.9% (from 4.2%) and 3.8% (from 4.5%) for 2011 and 2012, respectively.

In June, the IMF forecast 2.5% and 2.7% GDP growth in 2011 and 2012, respectively. This latest revision comes closer to the organization’s 2% benchmark for a global recession. 

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Economics

Friday, December 16, 2011

Jobless Claims of the U.S. economy Post a Notable Improvement / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims of the U.S. economy fell 19,000 to 366,000 during the week ended December 10, after a similar decline in the prior week. If this trend were to continue, the labor market picture could be different by the next FOMC meeting in January 2012.

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Economics

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Asia Diverging Economic Outlooks Going Into 2012 / Economics / Asian Economies

By: James_Pressler

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith most of the industrialized world focusing on all things European, we thought it might be worthwhile to see just what was happening on the other side of the Ural Mountains. Asia has not become embroiled in the debt problems sweeping through the likes of Greece and Italy, and its exposure to the euro is contained. However, what happens in Europe will inevitably drift into Asia, so a look at its major economies might provide insight into what awaits the region in 2012. In particular, we are focusing on the two most populous countries in the world – China and India.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Fed Stands Pat as the Curtain Closes on 2011 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed upgraded the performance of the U.S. economy compared with its assessment in November. The FOMC vote to stand pat was nearly unanimous, with only one dissent. Chicago Fed President Evans dissented as he would have preferred additional policy accommodation. The economy is now seen to be growing at a moderate pace despite the slowing conditions abroad. The Fed noted that while there are "some improvements in the labor market," the "unemployment rate remains elevated."

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Changing Views on Growth and Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat’s new?

When we signed off last week, the Germans and the French were trying to hold Europe together. This morning, they are still trying.

“Don’t you live in Europe?” asked a friend at a party over the weekend.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Sorting Out the Euro-zone Mess / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI had the pleasure of spending the morning and part of the afternoon today with Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky at a seminar here in Dallas; and we shared a long lunch, where Europe and China were the topics of conversation. So, with their permission, here is their latest "Five Corners," in which Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky discuss last week's summit, and then engage in an internal debate about whether Italy really has a significant trade deficit with Germany. As I expect from GaveKal, it's not your typical analysis. And since I have to run to dinner – and glean more insights from their team (there will be homework when I get back!), this introduction to Outside the Box is short, and we can jump right into today's piece. Have a great week.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

U.S. Household Debt - Deleveraging Posts New Record / Economics / US Debt

By: Asha_Bangalore

Household debt soared prior to the onset of the financial crisis to establish a peak at $13.9 trillion in second quarter of 2008 (see Chart 2). During the thirteen quarters since the peak, household debt has declined $688 billion (see Chart 3) to set a new record for the post-war period.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The Other Side of the Austerity Program - German Economy Stands to Lose / Economics / Germany

By: Asha_Bangalore

A fiscal austerity program has been adopted as the cure all for the ills of the indebted members of the eurozone. The flipside of this policy is that in the short-run Germany’s exports of goods and services will take a deep hit. Exports of goods and services from Germany reached a record high of 51% in the third quarter of 2011 (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Monday, December 12, 2011

ECRI Renews U.S. Recession Call Clashing with Wall Street Expectations / Economics / Recession 2012

By: EconMatters

The U.S. economy is showing signs of life with good economic numbers after the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) declared on 30 Sep. that the U.S. has already or is about to dip into recession.

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Economics

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Drop in U.S. Oil Imports Leads to Lower Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The trade deficit narrowed to $43.5 billion in October from $44.2 billion in the prior month. A 0.8% drop in nominal exports of good and service and a 1.0% drop in imports of goods and services resulted in an overall improvement of the trade gap. Real exports of goods increased 1.2% but real imports of goods fell 0.3% in October. Oil imports declined in October (2.8%) reflecting a lower quantity and price.

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Economics

Friday, December 09, 2011

How an Economy Collapses... and How to Protect Yourself / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Paul_Mladjenovic

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are growing fears that an economic collapse is on the way. Is this fear justified? Before we conclude that it is a by-gone conclusion and that it's time to head for the hills, let's first cover how and why an economy collapses. In this essay I talk about economic collapse as an "internal event". Keep in mind that there are "external" reasons for an economy to collapse (such as war and/or natural events such as earthquakes etc.)

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Economics

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Eurozone Debt Downgrade Shock Waves Could Slam Into US Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Dan_Amerman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStandard & Poor's missed the point when they "only" put 15 Eurozone nations on credit watch for possible near term downgrades.  In this highly interconnected world - most of Europe can't be put on credit watch without putting much of the world on credit watch, with the United States being particularly vulnerable to global "contagion" risks.

Twelve possible implications for the United States are concisely explored herein.  These "shock waves" include everything from the value of the dollar, to unemployment, gas prices, stock prices, derivatives, US bank stability, inflation, retirement investing, Federal Reserve reactions, the US deficit and credit rating, the potential criminal prosecution of S&P, and more.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Brazil, India, China and Eurozone Economic Headwinds to Heed in 2012 / Economics / Global Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere has been a string of positive news about the U.S. economy in the past few days – auto sales rose, jobless rate fell, the ISM manufacturing survey points to an increase in new orders and production, private sector construction outlays advanced. But, news from abroad is disappointing and could translate into more than a temporary dip in exports. The important question is if the tailwinds can offset the headwinds blowing through the United States.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

What the Christmas Price Index is Telling U.S. Consumers About Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: U.S. consumers can get a glimpse of what to expect in price changes this holiday shopping season - especially if you get your gift ideas from an old song.

The PNC Christmas Price Index, released by PNC Wealth Management (NYSE: PNC) measures the total cost of presents listed in the classic tune, "The Twelve Days of Christmas." This year, the price tag for an ambitious gift-giver buying all 364 presents hit $101,119.84, a 4.4% gain over last year's index.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Europe Entering a Decade Long Recession / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf French president Nicolas Sarkozy gets his wish to "Level the Playing Field" on sovereign bonds, a decade-long European recession is on its way.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy made it clear in a speech in Toulon last week that he wanted the private sector to be given a more-level playing field when it came to the threat of having to bear losses on their investments.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2011

Economic Armageddon: 2012 or 2013? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn his latest report, Samuel Kress of SineScope reviewed the 120-year cycle and broke it down into its constituent cycles. For the sake of our long time readers, I’m providing my own breakdown of the 120-year cycle and its effects on the past, present and future of the financial market and economy.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2011

Marc Faber Warns China Economy Heading for a Major Slowdown / Economics / China Economy

By: Videos

Marc Faber's big China short. Forget Europe, says Faber, it's China that's in for a major slowdown, with a relatively short appearance on CNBC's Simon Hobbs and the Money In Motion traders.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2011

U.S. Economic System Misunderstanding Capitalism / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs expected, the euphoria died overnight. On Wednesday, the Dow was up nearly 500 points. Thursday, it fell 23 points.

More and more people are coming to the same conclusion. The bull market is a fraud. And the system is corrupt. And they’re right. But not for the reasons they think.

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Economics

Sunday, December 04, 2011

BubbleOmiX Predicts US Employment Will Climb By 5-Million Over Next 18-Months / Economics / Employment

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe essential theory of BubbleOmix is that Ying follows Yang or in other words What Goes-Around Comes Around.

Employment in USA is a market, some people look to buy services, and interestingly 35% of companies in USA these days can’t find qualified people for the jobs they are offering (no prizes for guessing where those jobs will go). The fact that there may be a lot of unemployed (and unemployable) people doesn’t change the numbers of jobs on offer; it just changes the wages the jobs pay…slightly.

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