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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Are You Expecting A Recession? / Economics / Recession 2015

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The folks at Bloomberg put this piece up today with the intriguing title‘Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession’, and I thought: wait a minute, that’s what people, lots of people, actually think, that there’s going to be recession. While still others will trust Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, who, as the article put it, “posit an expansion that has plenty of room to run.”

For the vast majority of those in the world of finance, and probably in a much wider world, those are the options, because that’s how they think. Either more of the same, or a recession, as we know it in a cyclical sense, where the economic cycle goes up and down but in the end keeps turning up. And where any sudden moves are telegraphed well in advance by monetary authorities for the grace and benefit of them, the investors, so they don’t lose too much and can instead profit at every step, whether it’s up or down.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2014

How Macroeconomic Data Encourages Government Intervention / Economics / Government Intervention

By: Frank_Shostak

Frank Shostak writes: It is generally held that for an economist to be able to assess the state of the economy, he requires macroeconomic indicators which will tell him what is going on. The question that arises is this: why is it necessary to know about the state of the overall economy? What purpose can such types of information serve?

Careful examination of these issues shows that in a free market environment it doesn’t make much sense to measure and publish various macroeconomic indicators. This type of information is of little use to entrepreneurs. The only indicator that any successful entrepreneur must pay attention to is whether he makes profit. The higher the profit, the more benefits a particular business activity bestows upon consumers.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2014

The Biggest Threat to U.S. Jobs: “The Contestability Nightmare” / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

Today’s Outside the Box comes from Sam Rines of Chilton Capital Management in Houston, TX – a promising young economics contributor to The National Interest and a rising star who I met at Worth Wray’s wedding a few weeks ago.

Worth and Sam have developed quite the friendship over the past several months, but it didn’t take much convincing from Worth to get me to share Sam’s latest article with you. Sam’s work speaks for itself and I am VERY impressed by his insights on a wide range of economic issues – from the evolution of Fed policy and growing risk of a rising US dollar, to the long-awaited industrialization of India.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2014

A World Run On Broken Economic Models / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

As I was writing The Broken Model Of The Eurozone yesterday, I already knew there would have to be a sequel, because doing everything in one go would have been too much. And then, considerably less than two seconds later, it dawned on me that if I wanted to cover broken models and systems, a book would be the very least. But I don’t want to write a book, or, certainly, not here and now. Therefore, the best I think I can do is to sit down and let it flow, train of thought, stream of consciousness, probably the approach that suits me best to begin with.

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Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2014

Why The Theory of Money and Credit Is More important Than Ever / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Richard Ebeling writes: Eighty years ago, in the autumn of 1934, Ludwig von Mises’s The Theory of Money and Credit first appeared in English. It remains one of the most important books on money and inflation penned in the twentieth century, and even eight decades later, it still offers the clearest analysis and understanding of booms and busts, inflations, and depressions.

Mises insisted that the economic rollercoaster of the business cycle was not caused by any inherent weaknesses or contradictions within the free market capitalist system. Rather, inflationary booms followed by the bust of economic depression or recession had its origin in the control and mismanagement by governments of the monetary and banking system.

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Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2014

Why a Strong U.S. Dollar is the Ultimate Economic Stimulus / Economics / US Dollar

By: Clif_Droke

Earlier this year commodities prices were fairly buoyant thanks in part to strong demand in Asia. The strength didn’t last long, however, and by summer weakness was evident in Europe and China. Global growth slowed considerably in the months leading up to October, when oil plunged below $90/barrel for the first time since 2012. Apart from weakening global demand and the growth of energy supplies (thanks to fracking), the strengthening U.S. dollar has accelerated this trend.

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Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2014

The Broken Model Of The Eurozone Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I stumbled upon these few words in an Ambrose Evans Pritchard article the other day, and they hit me almost like some sort of epiphany, which in turn made me feel a little stupid, because it’s all so obvious. What Ambrose wrote (and this time I’m not making fun of him), was about the eurozone (EMU), of which he said:

The North is competitive. The South is 20% overvalued.

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Economics

Thursday, November 06, 2014

The Errors in Liquidity Preferences / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The theoretical construct of Keynes’s monetary view of the world is known as the liquidity preferences theory of money. This theory is the foundation of many macroeconomic models and stands in stark contrast to the classical view of interest rates, the loanable funds theorem.

Much of Keynes’ work, including this theory, disproportionately elevated the importance of holding cash as a key economic variable. Income can be consumed, saved or held in cash. Consumption is for personal satisfaction. Saving is a transfer of claims on goods and services from consumers to investors. Holding cash, or hoarding, is the equivalent of stuffing money in your mattress.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Japanese Governments Revenge On Its People / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I know I’ve written a lot about Japan lately, and that for some it’s been enough for a while, but still, what happens today under the no longer rising sun is going to have such repercussions worldwide that it would be foolish not to pay attention. Moreover, there’s something about what Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said this morning that both perfectly and painfully illustrates to what depths, economically as well as morally, the country has sunk.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Japan's kaput?! / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Axel_Merk

Japan’s economy is down but not yet out. The world’s third largest economy won’t go quietly. Both these statements are merely my opinion, but if you believe there’s a risk that I’m right, you may want to pay attention to what the implications may be.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

The Costs of Ebola on Guinea and Sierra Leone / Economics / Ebola

By: Steve_H_Hanke

For a clear snapshot of a country's economic performance, a look at my misery index is particularly edifying. The misery index is simply the sum of the inflation rate, unemployment rate and bank lending rate, minus per capita GDP growth.

The epicenter of the Ebola crisis is Liberia. My Oct. 17 blog post reported on the level of misery in and prospects for Liberia.

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Economics

Sunday, November 02, 2014

Hyperinflation - When Money Dies: Germany and Paper Money After 1910 / Economics / HyperInflation

By: MISES

Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna writes: The story of the destruction of the German mark during the hyper-inflation of Weimar Germany from 1919 to its horrific peak in November 1923 is usually dismissed as a bizarre anomaly in the economic history of the twentieth century. But no episode better illustrates the dire consequences of unsound money or makes a more devastating, real-life case against fiat-currency: where there is no restraint, monetary death will follow.

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Economics

Saturday, November 01, 2014

The Most Important U.S. Economic Charts You'll See / Economics / US Economy

By: DailyWealth

David Eifrig writes: The market is crashing... Ebola is running rampant... Look out for cloaked and bearded ISIS warriors.

You can always find a lot of fear-mongering in the news and in financial markets. Right now, it appears to be a particularly worrisome time.

Most of it is nonsense...

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Economics

Saturday, November 01, 2014

US Now Importing the World's Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Rubino

With US QE about to end, the rest of the world faced the prospect of another "taper tantrum" financial crisis, one that this time around could suck the world into a deflationary vortex. So it should come as no surprise that the end of QE was countered with a series of offsetting treats for the global financial markets:

• The US Fed promised to keep interest rates low for a really long time.

• The European Central Bank announced that in November it would start buying asset backed bonds, in effect beginning an open-ended, potentially huge debt monetization program of its own.

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Economics

Friday, October 31, 2014

The Deflation Boogeyman / Economics / Deflation

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Here we go again.  A plunge in oil prices has spurred a bevy of articles from the bought-and-paid-for media, as well as quasi-governmental agencies, alerting us of pending disaster if deflation were allowed to make an entrance, however briefly. Never mind that there is no theoretical or empirical evidence to justify this fear of deflation. (explanation here) According to the St. Louis Fed:

“While the idea of lower prices may sound attractive, deflation is a real concern for several reasons. Deflation discourages spending and investment because consumers, expecting prices to fall further, delay purchases, preferring instead to save and wait for even lower prices. Decreased spending, in turn, lowers company sales and profits, which eventually increases unemployment.”

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Economics

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

As the Eurozone Economy Stalls, China Cuts the Red Tape / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

Forty-four percent. That's the alarming unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 25 in Italy, where I traveled recently to meet with other global chief executives and business leaders.

The reason for Italy's high youth unemployment? Tortuous red tape, high taxation and thuggish unions. Many of the CEOs at the event I attended noted that Italy is mired in unionization. This has created a restrictive jobs market that crowds out well-educated, aspirational young people, many of whom are forced to flee their homes and seek work elsewhere.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Bulgaria: Liquidate KTB, Now / Economics / Eastern Europe

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The long-awaited audit of the Corporate Commercial Bank’s (KTB’s) assets has been released by the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB). In its wake, a debate has arisen about the future of the KTB: Should it be recapitalized? And if KTB is recapitalized, should the Bulgarian or the European authorities be responsible? However, it is clear from the results of the audit that, once the obscurity of the technocratic arguments is stripped away, there can be no debate. KTB should be liquidated as soon as possible, and whatever proceeds can be obtained in liquidation should be used to reimburse guarantees to depositors paid from the Bulgarian Deposit Insurance Fund (BDIF).

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Economics

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

U.S. Economic Snapshot - Strong Dollar Eating into corporate Profits / Economics / US Economy

By: Gary_Tanashian

Our view has been that a stronger US dollar would eventually start to eat away at corporate results, especially in the manufacturing sector and at US based companies with a global customer base. The decline in revenues thus far is something to be watched because where revenues go, earnings eventually follow.

[edit: the segment previous to this one reviewed a contrast between strong earnings and sagging revenues with companies that have reported earnings thus far]

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Economics

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Functional Economics - Getting Your House in Order / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Old Habits Reappear
Fighting the Fear of Fear
Growing Conspiracy
Myself Is after Me
Frayed Ends of Sanity
Hear Them Calling
Frayed Ends of Sanity
Hear Them Calling
Hear Them Calling Me
- Frayed Ends of Sanity, Metallica

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Economics

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Why Money Doesn’t Measure Value / Economics / Fiat Currency

By: Robert_Murphy

Anyone who knows him personally would attest that David Gordon is a troublemaker. He lived up to this label with a recent review of the new book by Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames. Gordon took them to task for referring to money as a measure of value, analogous to a ruler or clock; Gordon cited the authority of Ludwig von Mises while rejecting such a view. In a previous post here at Mises Canada, I then defended Gordon from the reply of John Tamny. Yet now I see that economist Marc Miles has jumped in the fray, also thinking that Gordon is ignorant of basic economics.

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