Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
Consumer Credit Could Launch Inflationary Spiral / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Recent comments from Walmart chief executive Mike Duke have investors on high alert. This time, though, the news spreads well beyond Walmart.
At a company event in New York, Duke reminded the crowd that retail is softening, “we’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” and later added that it was rising fuel costs, just another component of monetary inflation, that was driving the sales loss. Of particular interest to inflation watchers should be his comments that were mostly ignored.
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Thursday, May 05, 2011
ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Shows Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ISM non-manufacturing survey results point to slowing conditions in the service sector of the economy in April. The composite index declined to 52.8 in April from 57.3 in March. This is the second monthly decline and the lowest since July 2010 (see Chart 1). The composite index is made up of four equally weighted components. Of the four components, supplier deliveries advanced in April (53.0 vs. 51.5), while indexes tracking new orders (52.7 vs. 64.1 in March), business activity (53.7 vs. 59.7 in March) and employment (51.9 vs. 53.7) declined.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
Where is the Global Economy Headed? The Worst Is Yet to Come / Economics / Global Economy
By: Casey_Research
To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
Roy Furr: I'm writing today after spending the last three days in Boca Raton, Florida, attending The Next Few Years: A Casey Research Summit. If you're not already familiar, the purpose of this summit was to bring together many of the world's top economic and investing minds to share with us where they believe we're headed in the months and years ahead.
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Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Bin Laden's Death and U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pimco, appeared on Bloomberg Television today with Willow Bay from the Milken Conference in Los Angeles, where he discussed the effect of Bin Laden's death on the markets as well as the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
U.S. Economy Faces Domestic Economic Headwinds / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
If you watched the move Inside Job then you realized as it ended that we were in fact living the sequel. The movie is far from over. The problems are far from being addressed. The solutions may be close but the leadership needed is no where near.
Week after week I may sound like a broken record. Like someone who has missed the bull run and trying to defend lost opportunity. At some point this market will turn. Those who said they will get out at or near the top will again be proven wrong. Their paper profits will turn into paper losses and they will argue they "cannot afford to sell." What has frustrated the bears will one day frustrate the bulls.
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Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Hyperinflation and Double-Dip Recession Ahead / Economics / HyperInflation
By: The_Gold_Report
Economic recovery? What economic recovery? Contrary to popular media reports, government economic reporting specialist and ShadowStats Editor John Williams reads between the government-economic-data lines. "The U.S. is really in the worst condition of any major economy or country in the world," he says. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John concludes the nation is in the midst of a multiple-dip recession and headed for hyperinflation.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
The Debt and Inflation Endgame Headwinds / Economics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
I have written repeatedly about the Endgame in the weekly letter, as well as in a New York Times best-seller on the same topic. By Endgame I mean the period of time in which many of the developed economies of the world will either willingly deleverage or be forced to do so. This age of deleveraging will produce a fundamentally different economic environment, which the McKinsey study referenced below suggests will last anywhere from 4-6 years. Now, whether this deleveraging is orderly, as now appears to be the case in Britain, or more resembles what I have long predicted will be a violent default in Greece, it will create a profoundly different economic world from the one we have lived in for 60 years. This makes sense, in that the prior world was defined by ever-increasing amounts of leverage. Outright reductions in leverage or even a significant slowing of the rate of growth is a whole new ballgame, economically speaking.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Has the Fed Decided to Fight Inflation Instead of Unemployment? / Economics / US Economy
By: Washingtons_Blog
William Alden writes in a Huffington Post liveblog entitled "Inflation Vs. Jobs":
Bernanke's argument about inflation isn't consistent, economist Paul Krugman says.
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Saturday, April 30, 2011
U.S. Core Inflation Remains Contained, FOMC Policy Stance is Safe / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in March after an upwardly revised 0.5% jump in February. A 0.4% increase in outlays of services and a 0.1% jump in purchases of durables lifted consumer spending, with a 0.3% drop in expenditures of non-durables were a partial offset. Real consumer spending is projected to advance by 3.0% during the second quarter after a 2.7% gain in the first quarter.
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Friday, April 29, 2011
Here Comes Stagflation! / Economics / Stagflation
By: Sy_Harding
It’s official. The U.S. economic recovery is stumbling again, as indicated by Thursday’s report that GDP growth plunged to only 1.8% in the 1st quarter (from 3.1% growth in the previous quarter). And spiking oil, food, and other commodity prices have inflation on the rise.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Goolsbee on the Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth, Bernanke Concern Over S&P Rating / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Hans Nichols about today's report showing the U.S. economy slowed more than forecast in Q1. Goolsbee said about the S&P's judgment about the U.S.'s triple A rating was "a data point" and he also said that 2011 and 2011 are "still looking fairly positive" for economic growth. Goolsbee appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Bottom Line."
Friday, April 29, 2011
U.S. 2011 Q1 Real GDP Economic Growth One of the Three Smallest Gains of the Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, after a 3.1% increase in the prior quarter. Of the seven quarters of economic growth recorded in the current recovery, the first quarter's performance is one of the three readings which have been below 2.0% (see Chart 1).
Friday, April 29, 2011
Dyseconomics: The New Macro Econ and The Greatest Economic Boom Ever / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Cetin Hakimoglu writes:
*warning the views of this summary may appear bunt, infuriating, and or egregious, but this is my analysis about why things are the way they (normative economic Natalie Bassingthwaighte s) versus a populist feel-good rant about the fed or shadow banking. *
Thursday, April 28, 2011
IMF Forecast: Can China Really Overtake the U.S. Economy by 2016? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "World Economic Outlook," China's output will surpass that of the United States in 2016 - only five years from now.
But don't worry. The IMF calculation is based on "purchasing power parity" (PPP), which does not reflect real money. It relies on projecting China's stellar growth rates five years into the future. And it relies on Chinese official statistics, which are more than a little questionable.
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Thursday, April 28, 2011
Rick Ackerman Abandons 30 Years of Deflation Mantra, Defecting to Hyperinflation Camp / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Gary_North
Every once in a while, some famous defender of a position switches without warning to the rival position. A famous atheist becomes a believer in God (Antony Flew). A famous Protestant becomes a Catholic (Richard John Neuhaus). A famous Chicago School economist becomes a Keynesian (Richard Posner). These events are unexpected, especially by the people who make the switch. When it happens, the former disciples are left high and dry.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Growth and Inflation Equals Growthflation / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Hampson
It's an awkward term, but its what we've got: growth AND inflation. And the US Fed yesterday made it clear they will continue to support both.
Growthflation makes for big nominal gains in stocks and commodities, even if less in real terms, and that means little incentive on the short side. Eventually we will see excessive inflation and overtightening kill growth, but right now we see strong leading indicators together with a continued policy of stimulus from the Fed (QE2 into the end of June, reinvestment of maturing securities for a few months after that, and most likely rates on hold until 2012), a recipe for more growth and more inflation. Essentially the Fed is keen to bring back those 7 million lost jobs (employment being the notorious laggard) and continues to talk down inflation.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Fed Wants Even Higher Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Axel_Merk
Today, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it will continue to purchase government securities as previously announced ("QE2"), including reinvesting principal payments from its holdings.
The FOMC downgraded its economic growth forecast, acknowledged inflationary pressures have moved from commodity inflation to core inflation, yet insists inflation remains too low. The Fed considers inflationary pressures to be transitory, but monitors the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Net Trade Deficits - A Leading Indicator of U.S. Economic Woes! / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Many people think the root cause of the current U.S. economic problems is the sub-mortgage debacle. I certainly think that is a major contributor both to those problems, and to the timing of them. However, I believe (and have believed since 2005 when I first started to seriously study the U.S. and its evolving place in the world economic order) that what is happening now would have happened eventually absent the sub-prime crisis - albeit many years from now.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
The Most Reliable Measure of Real Consumer Price Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Bill_Bonner
We’ve always wondered why there is so much debate about the rate of inflation. It seems like such a simple thing to track. You go in the store. You buy a box of Wheaties. You write down the price. Next month, you do the same thing. What’s so hard about that?
But what if the box is smaller next month? What if the Wheaties are twice as good? What if you can get the same enjoyment from a box of Wheatie-Puffs at half the price?
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Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Can We Give The Hyperinflation Thing a Rest? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Whitney
The Federal Reserve is not going to push the economy into Zimbabwean hyperinflation. That's pure bunkum. The Fed's plan is to weaken the dollar to boost exports and to force China to let its currency appreciate to its fair-market value. The policy should help to lower the US's bulging current account deficit. By purchasing $600 billion in US Treasuries (QE2), the Fed effectively reduces the supply of risk-free assets, which sends investors into riskier assets like stocks and commodities. Is there an element of class warfare in the policy?