Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 04, 2010
US Economy Demand Deficiency is Not the Problem and Keynesianism is Not the Solution / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gerard_Jackson
In trying to explain the state of the American economy the commentariat is still blaming the lack of consumer demand. But as the classical economists always pointed out when presented with this fallacy, consumption is never a problem but production is.
(Although I have made use of classical economists numerous times, drawing attention their correct views on production and consumption, I should make it clear that classical economists were far from being in agreement on every important point of theory, especially where value, prices and costs entered the discussion.)
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Saturday, October 02, 2010
America Trending Towards and Inflationary Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
There is no question that those who control our government from behind the scenes are bound and determined to take over the $6 trillion in private pension plans. Whether they’ll be successful remains to be seen. The Department of Labor wants to force all IRA’s and 401k’s into the arms of a corporate fascist government, that knows better what is good for you, than you do. You would exchange your hard earned investments for a guaranteed, government annuity that is not worth the paper it is written on.
We have been writing about this for more than a year, but as usual few are listening. People say the government won’t and can’t do that. Government can do anything it wants.
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Saturday, October 02, 2010
The Morality of Chinese Econimic Growth, Crude Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5 / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5
David Rosenberg and Capacity Utilization
Gary Shilling: Commercial Real Estate and Employment
The Morality of Chinese Growth
This week I am at a conference in Houston. I must confess that I don’t attend many of the sessions at most conferences where I speak. But today, the guys at Streettalk Advisors have such a great lineup that I am there for every session. But it’s Friday and I need to write. The solution? This week you get a “best of” letter. The best ideas I’ve heard and the best charts I’ve seen at this conference. Then we close with two short but very thoughtful essays from Charles Gave and Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal on “The Morality of Chinese Growth.” Lots of charts and something to make you think. Should be a good letter.
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Saturday, October 02, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Survey Points to Slowing U.S. Economy in Q3 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The composite ISM manufacturing index edged down to 54.4 in September from 56.3 in the prior month. Indexes tracking production (56.5 vs. 59.9 in August), new orders (51.1 vs. 53.1 in August), employment (56.5 vs. 60.4 in August), and vendor deliveries (53.3 vs. 56.6 in August) declined, while the inventories index rose to 55.6 from 51.4 in August. Readings above 50.0 denote an expansion in activity. Although the levels of each of the sub-components of the composite index continue to hold above 50, the declines registered in September, excluding the gain in the inventories index, imply that factory activity advanced at a slower pace in September compared with August.
Saturday, October 02, 2010
They Say the U.S. Recession Ended Over a Year Ago / Economics / US Economy
By: Hans_Wagner
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) told us the recession ended June 2009, when economic activity stopped going down and turned up.
The problem is most people are still worried about their jobs, if they have one and the lackluster performance of the recovery so far. With unemployment fluctuating between 9.4 and 10.1%, and the underemployment rate near 17%, it is no wonder the news from the NBER received such skepticism. Even the Federal Reserve said consumer demand, bank lending and housing remain weak, especially for this stage of the recovery.
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Friday, October 01, 2010
Perpetual Deflation Causes Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Shelby_H_Moore
It does not amaze me that most people have not studied enough to have a very good understanding of the current macro economic environment.
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Friday, October 01, 2010
Inflationism and Government Intervention Roots of the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Lionel Robbins writes: I want to start by saying something about the phrase "poverty in plenty" of which we hear so much. I cannot help thinking that it may be misleading to some readers. The object of this series is to explain why the economic machine sometimes produces so much less than it could produce, in spite of the fact that so many people consume so much less than they could consume.
Friday, October 01, 2010
U.S. Real GDP Revised Higher, Stronger Consumer Spending, Jobless Claims Trending Down / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter vs. the preliminary estimate of 1.6%. The 2.2% growth in consumer spending represents an upward revision from the earlier estimate of a 2.0% gain. The strength came from an upward revision of consumer outlays on services. A larger inventory accumulation was also reported for the second quarter compared with the prior estimate ($68.8 billion vs. $63.2 billion in preliminary report). A decline in non-residential structures and smaller growth of government spending provided most of the offset. Going forward, the U.S. economy is projected to grow at a tepid pace in the second half of 2010 of roughly 1-3/4%.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
U.S. Consumers Refusing to Debt Deleverage Will Be Dragged Kicking and Screaming into the Age of Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: James_Quinn
10% Savings Rate + Consumer Spending At 65% Of Gdp = Retail Disaster
Now that the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CNBC and every other mainstream media outlet have figured out what some financial blogs had figured out months ago The Great Debt Deleveraging Lie , everyone knows that the American consumers have not yet begun to deleverage. Consumer credit outstanding peaked at $2.58 trillion in July 2008. It has plummeted all the way to $2.42 trillion today, a 6% reduction over two years. The full $160 billion reduction can be attributed to write-offs by the Wall Street, Ivy League MBA run, banks.
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Thursday, September 30, 2010
Japanese Economy Threatened by China Rare Earth Metals Ban / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins wites: Japanese authorities last Friday released from detention the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that was found in disputed waters. However, China continues to withhold exports of rare earth metals to its island neighbor.
Rare earth metals are crucial to Japan's high-tech industry, and the ban on shipments from China, which has been in place since Tuesday of last week, could cripple the country's economy.
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010
If the Recession Has Ended, Why Is the Fed So Worried? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Claus_Vogt
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of U.S. economic history. It sets the officially accepted dates for the beginning and the end of U.S. recessions. And on September 20, its Business Cycle Dating Committee published an important statement …
It finally declared the end of the recession that began in December 2007. Here is an excerpt from what it had to say:
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Why the Statistical Economic Recovery Feels Bad / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds might be interested in charts of GDP minus the effect of increased government spending. The charts are from reader Tim Wallace who writes ...
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Forget a Recession, The American Empire is Crumbling / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Graham_Summers
I look around me and I see an Empire in Decline.
The US economy is clearly in a depression… not a recession, not a recovery, but a DEPRESSION. More than 40 million Americans (12%) are on Food stamps. Nearly one in five of us are unemployed of underemployed. Folks go to Wal-Mart at 11PM waiting for their government checks to clear at midnight so they can buy baby formula, milk and other necessities.
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010
U.S. Unemployment Rate Could be Higher in September vs. August / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 48.5 in September from 53.2 in August. The September reading is the lowest since February 2010 (46.4). The historical low is 25.3, registered in February 2009. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index also declined in September (66.6 vs. 68.9 in August). The decline in consumer outlook appears to be tied to the prevailing conditions in the job market. Although the recent recession officially ended in June 2009 and real GDP has posted growth for four straight quarters, the 9.6% unemployment rate in August is an elevated level playing an important role in the pessimistic outlook of consumers.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Q.E. Economic Engine Revs But Car Goes Nowhere / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The economy is stuck in neutral so stepping on the QE gas pedal is highly unlikely to accomplish much except increase the noise level. Yet, the philosophy at the Fed seems to be, if gas doesn't work, give the engine more gas.
So the engine continues to rev louder and louder, and treasury yields drop, but that does not and will not put Americans back to work.
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Apologises for Being Wrong on QE and Stimulus Spending / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard the head economic poncho at the Telegraph now nearly 2 years from starting his mantra of deficit spending stimulus to prevent a debt deleveraging deflationary depression turns around and says that he has been wrong all along, that central banks such as the US Fed are focused on creating inflation rather than preventing deflation.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Slowing U.S. Economic Conditions / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.53 in August from -0.11 in July. The August decline marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline of the CFNAI, after two monthly gains. The 3-month moving average is -0.42 in August vs. -0.27 in July. The cut-off mark for the 3-month moving average of the CFNAI is -0.7. Readings above -0.7 after a period contraction suggest the recession has ended. The July and August readings of the CFNAI point to weakening economic conditions. The CFNAI is made up of 85 economic indicators classified under four categories - production and income, employment, unemployment and hours, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders, and inventories.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
A Candid Appraisal of the U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Browne
Over the last two weeks, seemingly good economic news offered some shreds of optimism to a stock market that was desperate for a pick-me-up.
The week before last, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the US recession had ended back in June 2009. At the beginning of last week, news came in that month-on-month retail sales had risen by 0.4 percent. Combined with successful government debt auctions in the eurozone, increasing expectations that Republicans will take back the House (thereby blunting the leftward drift of Washington), and hopes that a new round of quantitative easing will pump up growth, mainstream analysts are developing a feeling of near-euphoria.
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Has the U.S. Economy Improved in the Third Quarter? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
Economic growth in the second quarter slowed to an anemic 1.6% from 5.0% in the December quarter, and 3.7% in the first quarter.Hopes have been that things began picking up again in the third quarter and that last year’s recovery from the recession is back on track.
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Monday, September 27, 2010
Generating Economic Optimism, Put On a Happy Face? / Economics / US Economy
By: Douglas_French
Since two years of zero interest rates, $800 billion in fiscal stimulus, and the bailout of any business remotely viewed as systemically important haven't resuscitated the dead economy, now the tonic suggested is optimism. American business owners and consumers need to quit getting their daubers down and keep the sunny side up.