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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Trump Protectionism, Trade Chief Peter Navarro – and The Quest To Demonize China / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

While most Americans view China as friendly though not as an ally, those who favor demonizing China seek to change both perceptions and realities. Starting in January, these trade protectionists will lead US policies in the White House.

Recently, President-elect Trump chose Harvard-trained economist Peter Navarro to head the newly-created National Trade Council (NTC) in the White House to oversee industrial policy. Targeting the trade deficit is expected to pave way to Trump’s “First America” trade protectionism.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Warnings We’ll Wish We’d Heeded — Plunging US Jobless Claims / Economics / Unemployment

By: John_Rubino

It’s the same story every time: Imbalances build up during a recovery but most investors ignore them because good times have become the new normal and the uptrend seems bullet-proof. Then things fall apart and everyone wishes they’d paid attention to history.

This series will cover a few of the more glaring examples of late-cycle myopia, beginning with jobless claims, i.e., the number of people joining the ranks of the unemployed.

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Economics

Monday, December 19, 2016

A KEYNESIAN CHALLENGE: Prove Deflation is Bad For ME! / Economics / Deflation

By: Gordon_T_Long

'Mish' Shedlock and Gordon T Long discuss a number of outstanding issues in 2016 that will become Themes in 2017.

Economic Challenge to Keynesian's

Mish is quite emphatic that:

"Of all the widely believed but patently false economic beliefs is the absurd notion that falling consumer prices are bad for the economy and something must be done about them. The BIS did a study and found routine deflation was not any problem at all.

“Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the BIS study.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

China's Unfinished Trade Revolution / Economics / China

By: STRATFOR

Dec. 11 marks the 15th anniversary of China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Measured by its impact on the Chinese economy, which has grown almost tenfold since 2001, accession to the WTO was no less momentous than the epochal changes ushered in by the start of "Reform and Opening" in 1978 or the fiscal and political recentralization that followed the 1989 Tiananmen crisis. In the scale and speed of changes it wrought on Chinese society and politics, WTO accession was hardly less revolutionary than the Great Leap Forward of 1958-1961 or the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976. And in terms of their import for the structure of the global economy, few events in recent memory equal China's entry into the organization. By virtually any indicator, Dec. 11, 2001, was an inflection point not only for China's economy but also for much of the world's. But the anniversary also highlights how Chinese integration into the global economy remains incomplete.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Why Market, Economic Collapse isn't on the Menu / Economics / Economic Collapse

By: Clif_Droke

The word "collapse" instantly conjures primal feelings of both fear and excitement whenever we hear it. We fear it because it evokes our collective belief that collapse is fatal and final, yet it excites our imagination to the possibility, however, remote, that perhaps we'll be among the lucky few to survive and even prosper from it.

Whether in reference to a financial market crash or the collapse of government, the very idea has given birth to a plethora of writings on the subject. Indeed, some of the top selling books in the financial literature category in recent years have had collapse as the subject matter, for writers instinctively know they can always count on a visceral reaction from their readers whenever they write of it.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Do Larger Federal Budget Deficits Stimulate Spending? Depends On Where The Funding Comes From / Economics / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

I’d like to share a counterintuitive argument against the concept that fiscal deficits and/or infrastructure spending consititute effective economic stimulus. It comes from Paul Kasriel (one of my favorite reads when he was at Northern Trust, before he retired). He always has a way of looking at things from different angles than everybody else does.

Paul notes that the post-election US stock market rally has been due in part to the expectation that the Trump administration will enact stimulative fiscal policies, which in turn will jumpstart growth. But Paul begs to differ on that last point.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Trump’s Private Sector Appointments Signal A Rollback Of The Regulatory State / Economics / Market Regulation

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I feel good about the nomination of Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary. A banker (a not a political hack) in that seat is all right by me. Seriously. And Wilbur Ross as Commerce Secretary? Terrific.

I can’t tell you how happy I am to have private sector guys in these positions of power.

I’ll be candid—for eight years, under Obama, business was the enemy. That mindset is changing. It seems foreign because it’s been so long.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Italy’s Banking Crisis Is Nearly Upon Us / Economics / Financial Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

There is a high degree of probability (approaching 90%, I’d say) that Italy will experience a severe banking crisis in the next few quarters. Perhaps they can stave off the problem for a year, but something will have to be done about the banks.

Italian GDP per person lagging the rest of Europe

Italian citizens haven’t had much fun the past decade, judging from their GDP. You can see on the left side of the chart below that GDP per person has lagged the EU since 1995. Worse, it kept falling after 2009, even as Italy’s neighbors recovered.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

A Closer Look at Our Recent US Employment Numbers / Economics / Employment

By: Rodney_Johnson

Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 178,000 jobs – with 156,000 in the private sector and 22,000 in government – which is right in line with the monthly average for 2016.

But let’s dig a little deeper past the headline numbers. For years we’ve argued that there’s more to the story than just the number of jobs created. We want to know, and our economy depends on, how much money people are paid.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

WTO Debacle Heralds the End of Postwar Trade Regime / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

 “China is not a market economy,” President-elect Donald Trump said in Iowa a few days ago. In the past few months, Trump has also pledged to undo the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), beat back the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), impose huge tariffs on China and Mexico, and rewrite the rules of trade.

Nevertheless, the Obama White House, the EU and Japan beat Trump in the reset of the international trading regime by refusing China its market economy status (MES). The key clause in China’s agreement for joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) expired on Sunday.

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Economics

Monday, December 12, 2016

The Robot Workforce is Coming - Here’s Why It's Best for Everyone / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Every day brings a new warning: robots are coming to take our jobs. Soon we’ll all be unemployed… and unable to buy what the robots produce.

What good are robots if all they do is make stuff we can’t afford? I don’t know. But there's no doubt automation will replace some human workers—even (gasp!) writers and editors.

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Economics

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Our Future Economy, Jobs, Banking, And Governance – Part2 / Economics / US Economy

By: Raymond_Matison

One Possible Outcome - Future demographic impact on the global economy

Developing or emerging nations are still growing in population, are at a much younger average age, and are eager to own more goods.  They do not yet have the long life span seen in advanced nations, and hence a larger proportion of their population remains as consuming spenders. Their spending patterns will promote the kind of consumer economic model that had existed in the more developed world of Europe and North America in the last century.  Accordingly, consumer spending of emerging nations can be projected to rise for decades. 

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Economics

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Developing Knowledge-Intensive Society and Knowledge Industrial Hub in Kerala: Global Applications and Implications / Economics / India

By: Dr_R_M_Mathew

This is a work on Development Strategy based on Knowledge and Brain Power, rather than Capital and Technology, including Information Technology. It is prepared for the specific context of Kerala, one of the smallest Indian states and also known as ‘God’s Own Country’. Kerala has the highest digital connectivity. The proposed Kerala Model may have wider applications to various small and big countries, including India as a whole, in pursuing a Knowledge-Intensive Development Strategy (KIDS).

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Economics

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

More Talk About More Economic Growth and More Globalization / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The world is facing the “first lost decade since the 1860s”, said Bank of England governor Mark Carney this week. Arguably good for soundbite of the day, but the buck stops there. The only way that buck could have kept rolling would have been for Carney to take a critical look at himself and his employer(s), but there was none of that.

The Canadian import governor has no doubts about anything he’s done, or if he does he shows none. Instead he puts the blame for all that’s gone awry, on some -minor- elements of what he think globalization means, not with the phenomenon itself, or his enduring support for, and belief in, it. The problem with that is it’s indeed belief only; he can’t prove an inch of what he says.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

The Imminent Multi-Trillion Dollar Surge In Social Security & Medicare Costs / Economics / Government Spending

By: Dan_Amerman

For decades we have known that the time would come when Social Security & Medicare costs would begin a rapid and explosive growth upwards. That time is no longer the distant future - but something that will take place next year, and the year after, and the year after. The long expected storm is now upon us, and as can be seen below, the amounts involved are staggering and they will arrive much faster than most people realize.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2016

If Trump Doesn’t Do This, We Will Have the Great Depression 2.0 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

No matter who won the presidency, the economic way forward was not going to be easy. The Republican team understands they must “stand and deliver.” But as we will see, that is not going to be easy.

I’m going to depart from the normal format, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do.

But first, let’s look briefly at where we are now—at the constraining facts that any economic proposal must take into consideration.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2016

Here’s How We Can Avoid a Horrific Economic Future / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

We have to face up to our economic reality.

If we don’t bring the budget deficit beneath the nominal growth rate of GDP (which is unlikely to go above 4% in the near future), our debt will explode during recessions; and we will ultimately face a debt crisis.

Those never end well. The choices we will have at that point will be far fewer and even more stark.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2016

Our Future Economy, Jobs, Banking, And Governance / Economics / US Economy

By: Raymond_Matison

Part 1.  Our Past and Present Experience

World leaders, central bankers, leading politicians, and economists are all clamoring for increased economic growth.  If growth falls below a perceived minimum rate, financial or fiscal stimulus programs are initiated and maintained in order to accelerate it.  The concept for necessity of continued growth is so engrained in our society, that few question under what kind of conditions, when, why, and for whom it is necessary or beneficial.  The populace has been brainwashed for decades to believe if economic growth slows that it will have meaningful negative consequences for our quality of life.  Contrariwise, we have been falsely led to believe that if the economy grows rapidly, everyone benefits.

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Economics

Friday, December 02, 2016

We Are Putting Off the Inevitable / Economics / Recession 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Only two presidents in history did not see a recession, and they were inaugurated after single-term presidents. In every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency, there’s been a recession. This means there is a 100% chance of recession for the new president.

My friend Raoul Pal, in his latest Global Macro Investor, talks about the potential for a recession in 2017:

The following chart shows every recession since 1910 (in yellow) with the new president after a two-term election marked in white and the new presidents after a single-term presidency in red. Wilson and Eisenhower appear as both. Only Coolidge saw more than a year (sixteen months) from his second-term election and the onset of the subsequent recession at the end of WWI…

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Economics

Friday, December 02, 2016

Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics - A Fuse, An Explosive and The Igniting Catalyst / Economics / Demographics

By: Gordon_T_Long

Investors need to focus on the two key long term structural changes now underway which are going to ignite destructive global dislocations through early 2020. To better understand why this is going to occur we need to place them in context by first examining the major economic cycles currently underway.

Harry Dent's Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics

This initial cycle chart is from an in-depth discussion I had with Harry Dent earlier this year. Since leaving Harvard, Harry has spent most of his adult working life  studying demographics and cycles.

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