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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, May 03, 2018

Fed FOMC Update: Stagflation on the Horizon / Economics / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is fast approaching its worst nightmare.

Stag-flation.

Stagflation is when inflation is rising at the same time that the economy is weakening, if not contracting.

The Fed has always argued that low levels of inflation (2%) were acceptable provided the economy was also growing. Indeed, this is the very gimmick the Fed has utilized to mask the fact that quality of life has been falling in the US since the early ‘70s (by understating inflation, the Fed has overstated economic/ income growth).

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Economics

Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Two Charts That Argue Inflation, NOT Deflation, is Now the Dominant Trend / Economics / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are moving into their first MAJOR inflationary shift in TEN years.

Perhaps the single best metric for measuring inflation vs. deflation in the bond markets is the TIPs to Long US Treasury ratio. In its simplest rendering when this ratio rises, it means inflation is on the rise. When it falls it means deflation is dominating the bond markets.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Is the Malaysian Economy a Potemkin Village / Economics / Malaysia

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

Before we go on let's define what do you mean by Potemkin Village. As per Wikipedia definition,

“ In politics and economics, a Potemkin village (also Potyomkin village, derived from the Russian: потёмкинские деревни, Russian pronunciation: [pɐˈtʲɵmkʲɪnskʲɪɪ dʲɪˈrʲɛvnʲɪ] potyomkinskiye derevni) is any construction (literal or figurative) built solely to deceive others into thinking that a situation is better than it really is. The term comes from stories of a fake portable village built solely to impress Empress Catherine II by her former lover Grigory Potemkin during her journey to Crimea in 1787.”

To determine whether Malaysia's economy is really a potemkin village I will bring do a study bases
on the economic data for the past 10 years. I will look into the growth of GDP, money supply, corruption
index, inflation and other indicators as well.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Small Business is the Mainstay of the Economy / Economics / SME

By: BATR

Business ventures are started for as many reasons as the individuals who take the risk to build their own future. Whether they openly acknowledge of not, making money is the key objective. Earning a profit keeps the enterprise in business. On a microcosm level an independent operation reflects the functions of the entire small business economy. Transnational conglomerates move the physical presence of their operations as often as hot money jumps the borders to gain a higher return on equity. Merchants invest in their own neighborhoods, become the leaders of their communities and active achievers in their own business endeavors.  

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Economics

Monday, April 23, 2018

US Economy Is Cooked, the Growth Cycle has Peaked / Economics / US Economy

By: Adam_Taggart

Hours ago, European Central Bank chief Mario Dragho conceded: "The growth cycle may have peaked"

Of course, those paying attention to the data already knew this. Our politicians and central planers have been peddling to us the fantasy that the global economy is strengthening, finally ready to fire on all cylinders after nearly ten years of dependence on monetary stimulus.

That just ain't so.

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Economics

Monday, April 23, 2018

Inflation, With a Shelf Life / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

For the last few weeks we’ve used the conditions noted in the graphic below as a guide. Well, the ‘inflation trade’ (IT) popped last week and that included cyclical metals (as well as silver) ramming upward vs. gold and TIP rising vs. TLT & IEF.

As for credit conditions, there is little imminently raising caution flags as commercial lending and risk taking (as indicated by high yield junk bonds) continue apace, but the note still stands on the bigger picture as the credit system and money supply are gumming up with the Fed in quantitative and Fed Funds tightening mode while the velocity of money in the economy maintains a secular downtrend.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Inflation Is Not Our Biggest Threat / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

You wouldn’t know that by listening to current commentary on the economy.

There is a bigger threat, though. But first, there is some clarification about inflation that is necessary.

Most people infer rising prices when they hear the term inflation. That is not correct. The rising prices are the ‘effects’ of inflation. The inflation, itself, has already been created.

It is notcreated, or caused, by companies raising prices. And it is not created by ‘escalating wage demand’.

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Economics

Saturday, April 14, 2018

Shocking Chinese Economic Data Points Will Disrupt Markets / Economics / China Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe recent data released by China presents traders with a huge opportunity over the next 6~18 months. Recently released Chinese economic market data points to a general market disruption in regards to trade values, import/export data and loan/debt risk.  As reported by Reuters and Business Insider, the continued crackdown on Shadow Banking in China, as well as recently announced trade tariffs, may be shifting the dynamics of the Chinese Dragon economy dramatically.

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Economics

Monday, April 09, 2018

The Mother of All Deflations / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Longtime and dear friend of the Automatic Earth, professor Steve Keen, wrote an article recently that everyone should read (that goes for everything Steve writes). It’s hard to select highlights, but I’ll give it a try. Steve explains where our housing markets went off the rails, what (short-sighted) interests politicians have in subverting them, and, something rarely addressed, why housing markets are unlike any other markets (the turnover of existing properties is financed with newly created money)

He then suggests some measures that might counter this subversion, with a twang of It’s a Wonderful Life nostalgia thrown in. That nostalgia, which will be seen by many as outdated and a grave mistake in these ‘modern times’, instead makes a lot of sense. We might even say it’s the only way to get back on our feet. It resides in the idea that money-circulating building societies, rather than money-creating banks should be in charge of the housing market.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

China/Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? - Part V / Economics / China Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we, the research team at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to deliver sections of this multiple part global market research report centered around China and Asia as a catalyst for an impending global market/debt collapse, we want to make sure our readers understand this process will likely play out over many months into the future.  This is not something that we should concern ourselves with right away.  This is not a warning that “the sky is falling and we need to run to our bunkers”.  This is forward-looking research that indicates a strong possibility that China and Asia, along with many other nations in this region, may experience a credit/debt market contraction that could lead to another global credit crisis and we need to be aware of it and plan to profit from it. (Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV)

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Economics

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our previous three segments of this research report detailed not only the history of the Chinese economic activity but also detailed some of the capital flow issues that have been active in presenting this unique instance in time as it relates to a potential implosion of economic activity in China and most of Asia.  We, the research team at Technical Traders Ltd., have attempted to clearly illustrate all of the components and facets that have existed to make up a very unique scenario where traders may be able to experience a once or twice in a lifetime trade that could result in massive returns.

Within our previous posts, we attempted to disclose what we believe to be one of the most critical and potentially damaging economic events in our future.  We urge all readers to review (Part I, Part II, Part III) of this multi-part research report to bring everyone up to speed with our thinking.  Please take a moment to our earlier posts before continuing.

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Economics

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Warning China / Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? / Economics / China Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Thank you for following our multi-part research (Part I, Part II) into the possibility of a China/Asia market collapse and our hypothetical analysis of what that event might consist of and how it may play out.  So far, we have discussed the Chinese housing market rotation as well as the recent trends within the past 7+ years, expansion and foreign investments made by many Chinese and successful Asian investors.  All of this research raises some interesting questions for us to consider.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

China/Asia Economic Crash Is Starting / Economics / China Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In our previous article regarding the potential China/Asia Economic Implosion, we illustrated how the property market cycles in China (Beijing) are in the early stages of a potentially topping and a massive drop in value.

Today, we are going to try to expand on this analysis a bit further by illustrating how the US and other global established economies may have inadvertently setup certain emerging markets for another global crisis event.  Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has developed a unique set of skills in sourcing and evaluating current market events and predictive price modeling systems that allow us to attempt to determine future events with relative certainty.  Within this post, we will attempt to provide further evidence and supporting data as it relates to our belief that we are in a very late stage economic expansion cycle and about to enter a very early stage economic contraction cycle.  As we continue to disclose our research and findings within this multi-part article, we will close this research out by explaining how and why we believe smart investors will be able to create massive opportunities over the next 12 to 48 months from our research.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

China/Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? / Economics / China Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent news of the US enacting $60 billion in economic tariffs on China as well as reactionary tactics from China have everyone spooked.  The US stock markets and global markets tanked last week as this news hit the wires.  At www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, we have been warning of a massive upside move in precious metals as well as global market concerns for the past 12+ months.  Our recent research shows just how fragile the global markets are to external factors as well as strengths in the US and other established economies.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Critical US Economic Indication to Watch Out For / Economics / US Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

Millennials get a bad rap. Sure, they’re the generation that grew up with participation trophies, winning prizes for completing the arduous task of showing up. And with help from their Boomer professors, they have successfully shamed institutions of higher learning, where for centuries debate was considered a search for the truth, into echo chambers of conformity.

I’ve also just learned that this generation has promoted E-sports (that would be watching other people play video games) into such a big deal that the category will get its own E-sports arena in Arlington, Texas.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Economic Moral Hazards of the International Criminal Court - and Philippines Withdrawal / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the Philippines is withdrawing from the International Criminal Court, ICC is blaming the Duterte government. In reality, the withdrawal is still another example of the erosion of the ICC’s credibility, its failure at judicial independence and gross bias against the emerging world.

In February, the ICC said it was investigating allegations that the Philippines president had committed “crimes against humanity” by facilitating extrajudicial killings and other rights abuses in the war against drugs. These charges, which have often relied on flawed data, have been pushed by two Duterte critics. Known for his coup efforts, controversial senator Antonio Trillanes has spent much time in Washington and Europe to gain support, while the obscure Jude Sabio has gained notoriety as a hit man lawyer. What's not known is who funds the two and why leading Western media companies have bought their stories with hardly any source scrutiny.
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Economics

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Here’s What Inflation Could Look Like in 2020, Based on Past Surges / Economics / Inflation

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark, Rising inflation has hit the headlines, sparking some attention from journalists. What most mainstream investors don’t realize, though, is that history shows inflation can quickly get out of control, and not just in some mismanaged third-world country. Surprise spikes in inflation have occurred right here in the US—and given the massive amount of currency dilution around the world over the past decade, a jump in inflation could easily kick in again.

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Economics

Friday, March 16, 2018

South Africa To Copy Zimbabwe Model To Hyperinflation‘Prosperity’ / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Jeff_Berwick

Doesn’t South Africa have the internet yet?  Or, even books?

The new South African finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, has just come out with an amazing plan to help the people!  He will devalue their money into worthlessness! This always works out well. 

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Economics

Thursday, March 15, 2018

This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“This reminds me of the late 1960s when we experimented with low rates and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy at full employment and fund the Vietnam War. Today we don’t have a recession, let alone a war. We are setting the stage for accelerating inflation, just as we did in the late ‘60s.”—Paul Tudor Jones

As soon as the GOP followed its long-promised tax cuts with damn-the-deficit spending increases (who cares about the kids, right?), you knew to be ready for the Lyndon B. Johnson reminders.

And it’s worth remembering that LBJ pushed federal spending higher, pushed his central bank chairman against the wall (figuratively and, by several accounts, also literally) and eventually pushed inflation to post–Korean War highs.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

China Toward Sustainable Economic Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the past, Chinese growth was too much fueled by credit. Now it is becoming more sustainable and the emphasis is shifting on living standards, poverty reduction and environmental protection.

In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, or the same as in 2017.

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