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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

China Toward Sustainable Economic Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the past, Chinese growth was too much fueled by credit. Now it is becoming more sustainable and the emphasis is shifting on living standards, poverty reduction and environmental protection.

In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, or the same as in 2017.

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Economics

Sunday, March 11, 2018

An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3 / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“During the 1980s and 1990s, most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon.”
—Ben Bernanke

Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in 2002 with a few kind words about his peers, including the excerpt above. Speaking for central bankers, he took a large share of the credit for the low inflation of the 1980s and 1990s. Central bankers had gained a “heightened understanding” of inflation, he said, and he expected the future to bring even more inflation-taming success.

Of course, Bernanke’s cohorts took a few knocks in the boom–bust cycle that followed his speech, but their reputations as masters of inflation (and deflation) only grew. Today, the picture he painted seems even more firmly planted in the public mind than it was in 2002, notwithstanding recent data showing inflation creeping higher.

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Economics

Friday, March 09, 2018

Here’s What The Trade Tariffs Really Mean / Economics / Protectionism

By: Rodney_Johnson

Every day, you plunk out cash to support your neighbors. And they support you. That’s how economies work.

I buy from my local store, which employs people, and I use local services. Even when I buy from Amazon, the stuff has to get here somehow.

We also pay taxes, much of which goes to services that employ and support people in the community. In this instance, you can think of the entire nation as your community.

So, how much of your cash are you willing to give to your neighbors?

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Economics

Thursday, March 08, 2018

China Is Leading a Once-in-a-Generation Shift to Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

By Patrick Watson : At the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, Louis Gave, co-founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, talked about “game-changing policy shifts” and massive social changes that are underway in China.

One of the most notable changes is Xi Jinping’s effort to pull the Chinese economy away from pollution-heavy industries. Cement, steel, and textile industries are under pressure—they are forced to cut back production and reduce supply.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 07, 2018

How Chinese Economic Growth Is Changing / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

What many international observers continue to miss is that the deceleration of growth in China goes hand in hand with rapidly-rising living standards.

In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year.

While some of the leading international media reported the new growth target factually, others portrayed it as a “slowdown” that could even undermine global growth prospects.

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Economics

Saturday, March 03, 2018

Maybe The Economy Is Too Good For Investors / Economics / US Economy

By: WMA

In the early 19th century, London financier Nathan Rothschild said “buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the trumpets”.  The cannons referred to the start of war (valuations are therefore attractive as disorder begins) and the trumpets refer to the peace treaty ending the conflict (at which time timid investors pile back into risky financial assets). Warren Buffet has often reiterated the same idea first enounced by Rothschild saying “buy when there is blood in the streets” (eg, when valuations are very low).  

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Economics

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

US Goldilocks Economy is DEAD! / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

“Once you strip out the effects of the debt binge, the artificial stimulus via currency depreciation, and the fabled ‘wealth effect’ from the equity market runup, real GDP growth stripped-down to its core was the grand total of 0.7% last year. Potemkin would be proud.” – David Rosenberg

appears every president finds the religion of false economic narrative once they ascend to power. Trump never stops babbling and tweeting about the fantastic economy and raging jobs market since his election. He has embraced the stock market bubble as proof of his brilliant leadership, rather than the tens of trillions in debt propping up the most overvalued market in world history. Every president takes credit for any good news, spins bad news as good news, or blames the previous president for bad news that can’t be denied. The president has absolutely zero impact on the economy or stock market over the short term. It’s like taking credit for the sun rising in the east each morning.

The Big Lie method works wonders when you have a willfully ignorant, mathematically challenged, easily manipulated populace. I spent the entire Obama presidency obliterating the fake economic data perpetuated by his BLS, BEA and every other government agency trying to paint a rosy economic picture. I voted for Trump because the thought of Crooked Hillary as the president made me ill. Despite disagreeing with many of his economic, budgetary, and military policies during his first year in office, I’d vote for him again over Hillary in an instant. The thought of having that evil shrew running the country gives me chills.

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Economics

Monday, February 26, 2018

An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 2 / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“Inflation comes from too much money chasing too few goods.” –Many an economics professor

But does it really?

In Part 1 of this series, I said I would challenge popular beliefs about inflation, while at the same time proposing an alternative theory. I also promised that the theory leads to an inflation indicator with an excellent prediction record, and I’ll define the indicator in this article. Considering inflation determines bull and bear markets in both stocks and bonds, that’s my big pitch.

But first, here’s a recap.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Investors got lulled into a state of inflation complacency. Persistently low official inflation rates in recent years depressed bond yields along with risk premiums on all financial assets.

That’s changing in 2018. Five drivers of higher inflation rates are now starting to kick in.

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Economics

Monday, February 19, 2018

How Inflation Reduces The Real Value Of Social Security Net Of Medicare Premiums / Economics / Government Spending

By: Dan_Amerman

For most retirees age 65 and over, the spending power which they rely on from government retirement programs is their Social Security benefits after their Medicare Part B premiums have been withheld.

Because Social Security is in theory supposed to be fully inflation indexed, many people believe their standards of living in retirement will be fully protected from inflation. However, when we look at what matters the most, which is the purchasing power of Social Security net of Medicare premiums - that particular number has never been intended to keep up with the rate of inflation, as a matter of design.

Current retirees have received a rude wake-up call in recent years, with the increases in their Medicare Part B premiums consuming almost all of their very small increases in Social Security benefits. This is a process that is, however, still in its early stages. Particularly if higher rates of inflation are indeed returning, then the impact on retiree standards of living may be swift, powerful and sustained.

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Economics

Sunday, February 18, 2018

An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”—Milton Friedman

Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation?

Ever heard anyone else question it?

Unless you read obscure stuff written for the academic community, you’re probably not used to Friedman’s quote being challenged. And that’s despite a lousy forecasting record by economists who bought into his Monetarist methods.

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Economics

Monday, February 12, 2018

Bitcoin: Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be / Economics / Bitcoin

By: EconMatters

Bitcoin had rocketed from $900 to almost $20,000 in 2017.  We discussed why Bitcoin is a really bad investment for any investors and how 20% of Bitcoin owners took out debt in this get-rich-quick gamble.

It could all work out for everyone involved if Bitcoin were to continue its run towards $25,000 or even $60,000 according to some overly zealous predictions.  The problem is Bitcoin has crashed to around $8,600 as I write this post today.  Central banks like PBOC are moving to tighten oversight of bitcoin exchanges.  Banks have banned purchasing bitcoins using their credit cards.

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Economics

Monday, February 12, 2018

The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach  / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Dan_Steinbock

If the government’s focus remains on inclusive economic development, the Philippines could become a bright spot in the global landscape.

Today, there is a huge gap between the Philippines as it is portrayed by many international observers and the country’s fundamental economic realities.

The Duterte win was the triumph of ordinary Filipinos. Accordingly, there is only one way for the government to succeed. It must deliver the country’s economic promise.

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Economics

Monday, February 05, 2018

The Meaning of Economic Philosophy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Dr. Gero Jenner writes:In ‘The Open Society and its Enemies’, Karl Popper strongly defended the position that major interventions in the economy, especially when ideologically motivated, are usually disastrous and should therefore be avoided. Popper wrote his famous work towards the end of the thirties. On the one hand, he saw the devastating effects of textbook-based economies, where the working masses were tied into an economic strait-jacket by a Politburo, on the other hand, Popper was well aware of the dangers of that kind of capitalism, which tended to place the interests of a few monopolists above those of the general population. Against such aberrations, Popper propagated what he called ’social engineering‘, namely, a model of small steps, where every previous economic intervention is painstakingly scrutinized in view of its effects before any further action is embarked upon. Popper seemed to regard the economy in the same way as a highly complex machinery which a layman cannot tackle without causing the greatest damage.

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Economics

Friday, January 26, 2018

A Vision for the European Economic Future / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Enda_Glynn

Hi everyone,

I have seen the Future for the European Economy,
And it is not looking good.

The EU tracks a wide number of european wide economic indicators,
Everything from consumer credit,
to unemployment expectations in the future.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Inflation Tsunami Ahead / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Inflation is one of the most misunderstood, misused and lied about topics in economics. The Fed professes to know what causes it: an overly employed workforce. But, perhaps it is aware this is false and intentionally promulgates the ruse of growth as inflation’s progenitor because central banks want to deflect attention away from its money printing. Nevertheless, one thing is abundantly clear, we all have to agree that the Fed can’t readily control the exact rate of inflation; nor can it direct what the repositories will be for its quantitative counterfeiting misadventures.

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Economics

Friday, January 19, 2018

Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy / Economics / UK Economy

By: Submissions

What really happens in an economic minute? Is the UK flush with cash or does it need a bad credit loan? How much money does the UK make every 60 seconds? What's the average household income every minute compared to the highest-powered CEOs? It can't be too much in just a minute. Or can it? We crunched the numbers to create a 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy.

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Economics

Thursday, January 18, 2018

5 Economic Predictions for 2018 / Economics / Financial Markets 2018

By: John_Mauldin

Only two weeks in and 2018 is already breaking records—mostly in a good way.

But that leaves 50 potentially less enjoyable weeks to go. So rather than focus on promising current events, I think I’d better dip into my annual forecast bag and share a few highlights from my friends with you. (you can find the previous part of the 2018 forecast here)

These are the people I follow, read, and trust for their financial expertise.

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Economics

Monday, January 15, 2018

The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : I think this year’s top risk is a miscalculation by the Federal Reserve—specifically, that it will tighten monetary policy too much.

The Fed is hiking interest rates because its experts believe the economy is close to “full employment.” And the Phillips Curve says wages should start rising any minute now.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Trump’s Tax Cuts: The Good, The Bad, and the Inflationary / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

At last, tax reform is happening! Last week, President Donald Trump celebrated the passage of the most important legislation so far of his presidency.

The final bill falls far short of the “file on a postcard” promise of Trump’s campaign. It even falls short of the bill trotted out by Congressional Republicans just a few weeks ago. It is, nevertheless, the most significant tax overhaul in more than a decade.

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